2019 AFSAP: Findings from Draft Report

July 24, 2019

What is the AFSAP?

2

• Every two years, through the Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) process, APS reevaluates current and planned school facilities to plan for expected changes in future enrollment and required infrastructure investments

• The CIP is informed by the Arlington Facilities and Student Accommodation Plan(AFSAP), which provides a comprehensive review of:

• Current and projected student enrollment• Building capacity• Information about existing facilities• Design and design cost reports

• The AFSAP identifies priorities for the next CIP

• The AFSAP will be published on the APS website by Sept. 3, 2019

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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What are some factors leading to enrollment growth?

Student growth is anticipated to come from:• Larger kindergarten

cohorts entering APS elementary schools

• Expected increases in county births and growth in residential units which will accommodate additional students

3

2,4482,337 2,283 2,279 2,293 2,269

2,146 2,186 2,173 2,191 2,121

1,8651,964

1,871 1,789 1,739 1,7821,631 1,565 1,492 1,463

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

KG'22

KG'21

KG'20

KG'19

KG 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Classof '17

Classof '16

Classof '15

Classof '14

Enro

llmen

t

APS Student Enrollment SnapshotFall 2018-19

Projected Kindergarten StudentsCurrent StudentsRecent Graduates

*Source: Fall 2018 10-Year Projections**Source: Membership reports for 2018 and previous years www.apsva.us/statistics/monthly-enrollment/

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

DRAFT

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2019 AFSAP: Findings from draft report

Comparison of Expected Enrollment and School Seats

(2018-19 to 2028-29)

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Comparison of Expected Enrollment and School Seats

• Comparison of anticipated PreK to Grade 12 enrollment and permanent school seats

• From September 30, 2018 to the 2028-29 School Year

5

27,322 28,398 29,150 29,906 30,657 31,282 31,999 32,516 33,014 33,527 34,089

-966-31 -663

-14 -715 -1,340 -2,057 -1,774 -2,272 -2,785 -3,347

-4,000

1,000

6,000

11,000

16,000

21,000

26,000

31,000

36,000

PreK

to G

rade

12

Enro

llmen

t

School Year

+120 seats, Arl. Tech

+50 seats, Arl. Tech +800 seats,

Arl. Career Center

Projected Enrollment (No.)2018 Enrollment

School Seats

+2,011 seats, Fleet E.S.

Hamm M.S.Arl. Tech

The Heights

+1,405 seats, Reed E.S.Arl. TechEd Center

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Comparison of Expected Elementary School Enrollment and School Seats

• Comparison of anticipated elementary school enrollment (PreKto Grade 5) and permanent school seats

• The school seat need in 2028-29 is equivalent to 3.41 elementary schools*

6

14,191 14,667 14,800 14,981 15,307 15,589 15,835 16,161 16,534 16,919 17,271

-869-593 -726

-182 -508 -790 -1,036 -1,362 -1,735 -2,120 -2,472

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Elem

enta

ry S

choo

l Enr

ollm

ent (

PreK

to G

rade

s 5)

School Year

+752 seats, Fleet E.S.

+725 seats, Reed E.S.

* Assuming 725 seats for an elementary school.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Projected Enrollment (No.)2018 Enrollment

School Seats

5,950 6,204 6,532 6,628 6,609 6,697 6,854 6,989 7,002 6,995 7,103

-639

129 -199 -295 -276 -364 -521 -656 -669 -662 -770

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Mid

dle

Scho

ol E

nrol

lmen

t (G

rade

s 6 to

8)

School Year

Comparison of Expected Middle School Enrollment and School Seats

• Comparison of anticipated middle school enrollment(Grades 6 to 8) and permanent school seats

• The 2028-29 school seat need is equivalent to 0.77 elementary schools*

7

+1,022 seats, Hamm M.S.The Heights

(Gr. 6-8)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

* Assuming 1,000 seats for a middle school.

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Projected Enrollment (No.)2018 Enrollment

School Seats

7,181 7,527 7,818 8,297 8,741 8,996 9,310 9,366 9,478 9,613 9,715

542 433 262463

69 -186 -500244 132 -3 -105

-1,000

1,000

3,000

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

High

Sch

ool E

nrol

lmen

t (G

rade

s 9 to

12)

School Year

Comparison of Expected High School Enrollment and School Seats

• Comparison of anticipated high school enrollment (Grades 9 to 12) and permanent school seats

• The 2028-29 school seat need is equivalent to 0.05 elementary schools*

8

+237 seats, Arl. Tech

The Heights(Gr. 9-12)

+680 seats, Arl. TechEd Center

+50 seats, Arl. Tech

+800 seats, Arl. Career Ctr.

+120 seats, Arl. Tech

* Assuming 2,200 seats for a high school.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Projected Enrollment (No.)2018 Enrollment

School Seats

9

2019 AFSAP: Findings from draft report

Difference Between Projected Enrollment and School Seats by Location(2023-24 and 2028-29)

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Difference Between Expected Elementary School Enrollment and School Seats by Location (2023-24)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2023-24 by elementary school attendance zones that are combined to approximate the county’s major planning corridors

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or school seat need)

• This map assumes:• Fleet Elementary School, with 725

seats, opens in 2019-20 in Zone 3• Reed Elementary School, with 725

seats, opens in 2021-22 in Zone 1

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Zone 3-252

Zone 2-399

Zone 4-255

Zone 1+116

School Year2023-24

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Difference Between Expected Elementary School Enrollment and School Seats by Location (2028-29)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2028-29 by elementary school attendance zones that are combined to approximate the county’s major planning corridors

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or seat need)

• This map assumes:• Fleet Elementary School, with 725

seats, opens in 2019-20 in Zone 3• Reed Elementary School, with 725

seats, opens in 2021-22 in Zone 1

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Zone 3-786

Zone 2-907

Zone 4-431

Zone 1-348

School Year2028-29

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Difference Between Expected Elementary School Enrollment and School Seats by Location (2028-29)

• When assessing school seat need by zones which approximate the county’s major planning corridors, one should note that student populations are not evenly distributed within these zones

• There are relatively dense Planning Units that are often clustered in portions of these zones

• This density can result from land use patterns that concentrate dense multi-family housing in specific areas

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Count of PreK-Grade 5 students residing in

Planning Units (Sept. 30, 2018)

Example of an area of student

density

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Difference Between Expected Middle School Enrollment and Seats by Location (2023-24)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2023-24 by middle school

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or seat need)

• This map assumes:• Dorothy Hamm Middle School, with

1,000 seats, opens in 2019-20• The Heights, with secondary* seats,

opens in 2019-20

13

-42

+168

-212

+ 117

School Year2023-24

* Includes a combination of 114 new seats for middle and high school instruction.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

+10

-250

-155

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Difference Between Expected Middle School Enrollment and Seats by Location (2028-29)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2028-29 by middle school

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or seat need)

• This map assumes:• Dorothy Hamm Middle School, with

1,000 seats, opens in 2019-20• The Heights, with secondary* seats,

opens in 2019-20

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* Includes a combination of 114 new seats for middle and high school instruction.

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

14

-113

+137

-320

+ 144

School Year2028-29

+10

-382

-246

DRAFT

Difference Between Expected High School Enrollment and Seats by Location (2023-24)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2023-24 by high school

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or seat need)

• This map assumes:• The Heights, with secondary* seats, opens

in 2019-20• Career Center/Arl Tech, 250 seats in 2021-

22• Education Center, 600 seats in 2021-22

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* Includes a combination of 114 new seats for middle and high school instruction.All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

-225

-104+29

+600+5

+109-10

0

School Year2023-24

-590

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Difference Between Expected High School Enrollment and Seats by Location (2028-29)

• Map of projected permanent school seats needed by 2028-29 by high school

• “+” means more permanent school seats than students

• “-” means more students than permanent school seats (or seat need)

• This map assumes:• The Heights, with secondary* seats, opens

in 2019-20• Career Center/Arl Tech, 250 seats in 2021-

22• Education Center, 600 seats in 2021-22• Career Center, 800 seats in 2025-26

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* Includes a combination of 114 new seats for middle and high school instruction.All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

-430

-190+29

+600+6

+109+790

0

School Year2028-29

-1,019

DRAFT

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CIP Priorities from the Draft AFSAP Report and Next Steps

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CIP Priorities from the Draft AFSAP Report

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Elementary School Capacity Needs:

As APS prepares to develop the FY 2021-30 CIP, elementary school capacity needs are a top priority

The FY 2019-28 CIP addresses some of the capacity needs for projected elementary enrollment growth. The FY 2019-28 CIP includes resources to add 1,450-1,475 new elementary school seats There is a projected gap of more than 2,400 elementary school seats by Fall

2028

The projected gap in elementary school seats in 2028-29 represents about 74% of the approximately 3,300 school seats that are needed at all school levels (PreK to Grade 12)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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CIP Priorities from the Draft AFSAP Report

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Middle School Capacity Needs:

Middle school capacity needs are the second priority as APS prepares to develop the FY 2021-30 CIP

The FY 2019-28 CIP includes resources to add 300 new middle school seats at a site to be determined, opening in Sept. 2030, two years after the 10-year window for enrollment projections The projected gap in middle school seats in 2028-29 represents about 23%

of the approximately 3,300 school seats that are needed at all school levels (PreK to Grade 12)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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CIP Priorities from the Draft AFSAP Report

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High School Capacity Needs: The projects funded in the FY 2019-28 CIP help capacity keep pace with the projected high

school enrollment growth

The FY 2019-28 CIP includes resources to add 1,650 new high school seats, including:• 600 seats opening at the Education Center in Sept. 2021• 250 seats opening for Arlington Tech at the Career Center soon after Sept. 2021 • 800 seats at the Career Center site, opening in Sept. 2025

Capacity utilization shows high school enrollment exceeding capacity as follows:• By 2% in 2023-24 • By 6% in 2024-25 • Keeping pace with enrollment when the 800 school seats at the Career Center open in

September 2025

The projected gap in high school seats in 2028-29 represents about 3% of the approximately 3,300 school seats that are needed at all school levels (PreK to Grade 12)

All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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Next Steps (Calendar Year 2019)

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All Arlington Public Schools (APS) budget and operations decisions are based on the best information available at the time. Staff and community members are reminded that funding forecasts from Arlington County and the state may change, based on many external factors. Similarly, student enrollment and projections are based on the best available information, but are also subject to change due to employment, housing and other economic factors. For these reasons, APS and the Arlington School Board may adjust future budget allocations, staffing and other operations decisions to reflect the existing community and operating landscape.

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July 31 - Staff will receive feedback from the School Board and FAC

Sept. 3 - APS will publish the AFSAP by the first day of school

Sept. 24 – School Board Work Session, AFSAP and CIP Direction (added 7/25)

Oct. 23 or early Nov. – Tentative joint JFAC and FAC meeting

• Advisory groups to provide input on draft CIP Direction• Provide input on sites for school use (modified per JFAC input, 7/25)

Nov. 6 – School Board Work Session, CIP Direction

Nov. 7 – School Board Meeting, CIP Direction Information

Nov. 19 – School Board Meeting, CIP Direction Action