2017 us property-casualty insurance outlook - ey · pdf file1 | 2 0 1 7 u s property- casualty...

2017 US property-casualty insurance outlook

| 2 0 1 7 U S property- casualty insurance outlook1

T h e U S property and casualty ( P& C ) insurance industry is at an in ection point he econo ic en ine or

ro th in erica has been sputterin and it is providin little support or an industry pla ued by shrin in invest ent inco es escalatin clai s costs and risin re ulations t the sa e ti e advances in technolo y and the ro th o nsur ech are raisin custo er e pectations or reater innovation and revisin traditional insurance odels he nternet o hin s tele atics artificial intelli ence driverless cars and bloc chain have the potential to trans or industry unda entals and even redefine the nature o ris n the uture co petin or ar et share ill be increasin ly dependent on technolo y data and analytics

ne ru p ad inistration introduces the li elihood o urther econo ic and re ulatory chan e ith the industry in u this is the ri ht ti e or s to thin throu h their uture business strate ies hat ill the chan e in political direction ean or the insurance industry hich ar et se ents and business areas should they ocus on in the uture o can they use robotics data analytics and other ey technolo ies to strea line costs and attract ne business o can they build innovative custo er driven or ani ations that ill enable the to stay relevant in a ast chan in

ar etplace nd hat do they need to do to ensure they have the ri ht talent in place

2 0 1 7 :a time for

r eassessment

22 0 1 7 U S property- casualty insurance outlook |

C o ntinu ed ec o no m ic head w ind sn the ar et ill ace on oin econo ic challen es

ar ed by reater uncertainty econo ic ro th as e pected to rise only oderately ro rou hly in to about in

o ever Donald ru p s victory has raised uestions about the uture o the econo y o e ar et analysts believe that ru p s pro ise o a lar e ta cut and increased in rastructure

spendin ould boost ro th and drive up lon ter interest rates ut others eel ru p s policies particularly on trade ould have the opposite e ect an o erica or e a ple cut its D

ro th outloo ro to and sees e er ta hi es ahead

or the sector slu ish D ro th and reater uncertainty co e ith lo ered e pectations or pre iu ro th in

unich e predicts real pre iu ro th in the orth erican ar et to decline ro rou hly in to ust over in

o ever pre iu ro th ill depend on the uture direction o ro th and household inco e under the ne ad inistration

he on oin lo interest environ ent in the resulted in a decline in net invest ent inco e or the industry ro

billion in the first hal o to billion in the first hal o accordin to the nsurance n or ation nstitute or there s little relie in si ht ith port olio yields hoverin

at record lo levels a in invest ent inco e ill conse uently re ain the dra on botto line ro th or the sector or the oreseeable uture

he ar et had been e pectin year bond yields to rise odestly to in ith the ederal eserve ed a in

t o interest rate hi es durin the year ut ith risin in ation a distinct possibility under a ru p ad inistration as a recent sell o in bonds ould su est lon ter interest rates could cli b hi her to in o ever since insurers invest ent port olios are enerally loc ed in or lon er ter s the i pact on port olio yields ould be ar inal nd i D ro th slo s under ru p as so e econo ists e pect the ed s e pected rate increases ne t year ay be put on hold

S ource: F ast T rack M onitorin S yste

R ise o f p er so nal au to m o b il e insu r anc e l o ss c o sts f r o m Q 1 20 14 to Q 1 20 16

ean hile in response to lo yields insurers ill continue to loo or hi her yieldin invest ent opportunities that ay e pose the to reater invest ent ris ith invest ent returns li ely to stay ea or so e ti e insurers ill need to continue to ocus on earnin profits throu h under ritin n the plus side i prove ents in the a e and e ploy ent situation in the

alon ith potential increases in disposable inco e could boost top line ro th

1 8 . 4 %

1 4 . 7 %

9 . 6 %

1 1 . 1 %

1 1 %

B o d il y inj u r y

P r o p er ty d am age

P er so nal inj u r y p r o tec tio n

C o l l isio n

C o m p r ehensiv e

3

P & C insu r er p o r tf o l io y iel d s, 20 0 5 — 15

n additional proble or the auto insurance industry is the sharp rise in both the re uency and severity o clai s ver the last t o years the a re ate cost o accidents rose in the double di its

ith lo as prices li ely to encoura e drivin in and the cost o car repairs stayin hi h this trend is e pected to continue o

co pensate or escalatin losses insurers ill a ain raise pre iu s or personal and co ercial auto clients in ele atics

and i proved onitorin syste s auto sa ety technolo y and increasin auto ation have the potential to i prove loss rates oin or ard but it is unclear hen that ill be in to a ect clai s

carrier yields have been allin or over a decade re ectin the lon do ntrend in prevailin interest rates ven i prevailin rates rise in the ne t e years port olio yields are unli ely to rise uic ly since lo yields o recent years are ba ed in to uture returns

| 2 0 1 7 U S property- casualty insurance outlook

2 0 0 7 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3

ource ational ssociation o nsurance o issioners via inancial nsurance n or ation nstitute


A d ap ting to m ar k et shif tso eet risin custo er e pectations or di ital access and ne

business odels co panies ill do ore in to develop a culture o innovation nnovation incubators are no co on in ost co panies and any are partnerin ith nsur ech start ups or or in ith internal business tea s to incorporate the latest custo er centric strate ies and cross channel technolo ies into their operations

ith ore than nsur ech start ups in operation any ell unded the pace o innovation ill speed up ne t year or

e a ple in nsur ech start up rov plans to roll out onde and insurance that ill enable custo ers to use their s art phones to turn covera e or personal belon in s on and o he first on de and insurance provider o its ind rov is an e a ple o ho product innovation directed to ard illennials could disrupt the insurance odel ncu bents ill be atchin this space closely creatin venture undin roups that are actively onitorin and investin in nsur ech initiatives he ost a ile ill put hat they learn into practice in other parts o their business

nsurers ill ta e di ital trans or ation to the ne t level in hey ill e pand their use o robotics and advanced analytics

across ost aspects o their business ro clai s handlin and under ritin to custo er relationship ana e ent syste s and ris ana e ent or ard loo in fir s ill continue to e brace innovative technolo ies such as artificial intelli ence the nternet o hin s tele atics and bloc chain he ocus on innovation ill iden beyond doin thin s better to doin better thin s as insurers pursue ne business odels such as pay as you

o pricin and peer to peer insurance

hese shi ts ill redefine the co petitive environ ent in particularly as insurers step bac to reconsider their core ar ets ey stren ths and lon er ter strate ic positions ccordin to ho as ol heu ericas hie cono ist or iss e i a

ea or anic ro th profitability pressures and avorable ar et ultiples ill a e conditions ripe or consolidation in

is li ely to co e ro di erent directions ro s aller players loo in to build scale to insurers ro sia see in to penetrate the lucrative ar et

In a m o r e f r agm ented m ar k et, w her e p er f o r m anc e am o ng insu r er s c an v ar y w id el y and d isr u p tiv e c hange is gr o w ing, insu r er s w il l need to r eassess their str ategic p o sitio ning. ”ho as ol heu hie cono ist ericas

iss e i a

A c hanging r egu l ato r y l and sc ap e ne political landscape in ill increase the li elihood o reater re ulatory chan e at the state ederal and international

levels ith epublicans about to be in control o the hite ouse and both cha bers o on ress so e e perts oresee e er le islative lo a s and reduced ederal oversi ht or insurers the political shi t in ashin ton could lead to ore avorable re ulations on a nu ber o issues ro Dodd ran and national

ood insurance pro ra s to re ulations on cybersecurity and seldrivin cars nsurance fir s li e other businesses ay also benefit ro a lo erin o e ective corporate ta es on orld ide inco e

beyond the current reasury tar et o ut so e industry e perts uestion ust ho uch re ulatory re or can be achieved particularly over the shorter ter

n the eanti e re ulatory trends already in otion ay ain o entu in ver the past e years re ulatory pressures

have slo ly ad usted the financial positions o insurance co panies in the and around the orld or the insurer capital re uire ents ill increasin ly vary across product lines and be driven pri arily by under ritin ris valuatin ris based capital ill continue to de and i prove ents in enterprise ris ana e ent

syste s

insurers alon ith other financial institutions are li ely to see urther re ulations on cybersecurity hich has risen as a national

security issue he ed fice o the o ptroller o the urrency and the ederal Deposit nsurance orporation have issued an advance notice o proposed re ulations coverin five cate ories o cybersecurity cyber ris overnance cyber ris ana e ent internal dependency ana e ent e ternal dependency

ana e ent and incident response cyber resilience and situational a areness n addition the e or tate Depart ent o inancial

ervices recently issued re ulations that ill ensure that financial institutions aintain pro ra s to protect consu ers ro cyber ris s ther states ay ollo suit

“

5 | 2 0 1 7 U S property- casualty insurance outlook

A d d r essing c y b er r isk s ith cyber attac s risin sharply and creatin reater operational

and reputational ris s cybersecurity is beco in an i perative both ithin insurance co panies and across their co ercial client base yber insurance is already a ultibillion dollar business or the sector in the ith ore than carriers no o erin it

he ar et is orth ore than billion in ross ritten pre iu s ith the potential to ro to billion over the ne t e years accordin to the nsurance n or ation nstitute

he rapid ro th o cybersecurity insurance ill continue in in the co ercial se ent particularly a on s all businesses

esearch has sho n that ost s all businesses still do not have cyber attac response plans althou h any have been victi s o an attac s cybersecurity insurance ro s and evolves insurers ill do ore to i prove the product o erin as ell as establish reater consistency in under ritin and pricin odels

o ever ust ho ar the private insurance industry is able and illin to provide cybersecurity covera e is an open uestion s ith ood insurance a overn ent solution ay be necessary

o establish the selves as cybersecurity leaders insurers the selves ill be under pressure to create robust security syste s to protect a ainst cyber attac s ithin their o n enterprises irin cyber ris e perts or partnerin ith other or ani ations to ana e internal syste s better and buildin that e pertise into client value propositions or clients ill beco e increasin ly i portant

W hat P & C C R O s say ab o u t c y b er r iskost e ecutives participatin in the EY 2016

North American Insurance Chief Risk Officer (CRO) survey reported that their co panies aced a real ris o su erin a serious cyber attac or data breach he survey revealed a second type o cyber ris involvin insurance liabilities especially casualty lines any survey participants observed that casualty providers ere under ritin cyber ris s either consciously or un ittin ly o e

s reported that they are involved in revie in e istin contract lan ua e to assess hether and hich types o cyber ris s have already been under ritten no in ly or other ise s spo e o see in the ri ht balance bet een sei in the profit potential o those ris s and e posin their co panies to an unacceptable level o ris


C l o sing the tal ent gap ith insurance pro essionals retirin and di ital trans or ation

acceleratin insurers ill be loo in to illennials to fill a idenin talent ap in nsurance providers ill actively

see speciali ed s ills in the latest technolo ies such as artificial intelli ence social edia and bloc chain as ell as a variety o other co petencies ro di ital sales and ar etin to ris

odelin and bi data analytics i hter i i ration policies and chan in attitudes under a ru p presidency could ti hten the talent pool

t is esti ated that the insurance industry ill need to replace people ho ill be retirin ne t year o co pete ith other

industries recruitin resh talent insurers ill need to develop ore

Im p ac t o f ex ter nal f ac to r s o n the P & C m ar k et in 20 17 lo i pact hi h i pact

9 T ech nol og ydvances in technolo y are enablin insurers to i prove e ficiencies across their operations ro

under ritin and policy ad inistration to clai s and ris ana e ent e s art technolo ies such as artificial intelli ence tele atics driverless cars and bloc chain ill be a e chan ers

8 Customer ex p ectations

nsurers ill need to eep up ith rapidly chan in custo er e pectations or di ital access reater transparency and sel directed custo er e periences t the sa e ti e price sensitivity ill

drive co parison shoppin throu h e er in online and obile plat or s

8 Cy b er r isk sith di ital attac s on the rise cyber ris insurance ill ro ast as a co ercial line o business in

o aintain their leadership role insurers the selves ill be under pressure to create robust cybersecurity syste s ithin their o n enterprises

7 Comp etition and M & A

ith sa in ro th and allin profits the industry is li ely to see reater consolidation includin ithin the specialty insurance ar et nsurers ill continue to e plore nsur ech opportunities throu h

partnerships ac uisitions and venture capital invest ents

7 T al entith insurance pro essionals retirin in insurers ill need to attract illennials to fill the

aps nsurers ill need to attract data scientists cyber ris specialists di ital ar eters and others to capture their uture tou her stance on i i ration could hinder e orts to recruit talent

6 E conomyo interest rates co bined ith ediocre ro th ill continue to i pact the industry in

puttin pressure on profits and reserves pected shi ts in ro th trade and ta policies under a ru p ad inistration add to a hi h level o econo ic uncertainty

proactive pro ra s to attract illennials and build a areness o e citin uture trends in the insurance industry ithout the ri ht people drivin the ne t sta e o innovation and trans or ation or

insurers ill be i possible

David ollander ericas nsurance eader or sees this as an ideal ti e to a e plans that ta e into account the uture nature o or nsurers no have the opportunity to introduce ne technolo y such as robotics and ore e ective or orce

ana e ent activities he says y ta in out repetitive tas s they can produce an even ore productive and sti ulatin or environ ent or people

7 | 2017 US property-casualty insurance outlook

Strategic priorities for

2017


or insurers ill brin ne strate ic challen es to an industry in u echnolo ical and re ulatory shi ts are chan in custo er e pectations and ar et dyna ics in the personal property and auto insurance space and creatin de and or ne products and services such as cyber ris insurance he invest ent re uired to drive uture innovation is co petin ith the need to find e ficiencies and co ply ith

ro in re ulations ainst this bac drop the fiscal realities o co pressed ar ins and declinin invest ent revenues in the sector are a in invest ent choices increasin ly di ficult echnolo y ill need to be used to cut costs to ree up unds or strate ic invest ents

1 2 3 4

ocus on custo er driven innovation

se technolo y to drive top and botto line per or ance

ut cyber ris hi h on the corporate a enda

ethin strate ies to attract develop and retain talent

A strategic road map to drive profitable growth

820 17 U S p r o p er ty - c asu al ty insu r anc e o u tl o o k |

9

Accel er ate th e devel op ment of new p r oducts and b usiness model s. sa a proli eration o ne products and business

odels o ered by nsur echs etro ile s pay per ile insurance odel rov s on de and insurance or belon in s and ou ht

by any s peer to peer insurance to na e a e ccordin to ollander insurance product innovation ill ic into hi h ear in

he nature and ran e o insurance products are ne and evolvin ast he says and insurers need to act no to develop a ne t eneration o products to eet the chan in needs o co panies and individuals hese needs in ollander s vie represent a broad spectru ro short ter house and car usa e to a shareable or environ ent or s all business he insurers that are ost ni ble in definin these ne custo er de ands and

ettin these products out to ar et first ill be the inners

S tay customer - centr ic. o adapt to a ast ovin ar etplace and di erentiate the selves ro co petitors insurers ust stay laser ocused on the custo er and adapt their o to ar et strate ies to eet their ever chan in needs or insurers

ill ant to develop a illennial inded strate y that hi hli hts di ital access personali ation sel directed unctionality

and a sea less custo er e perience he strate ic i portance o illennials is beco in clear to both personal and co ercial insurers illennials are no the lar est eneration in the their

ealth is ro in aster than other a e roups and accordin to a recent aribas study illennipreneurs have started t ice as any businesses as baby boo ers nsurers should continue to ocus on the needs o core custo ers such as lar e co panies that

are increasin ly e pectin carriers to provide value added services such as insi hts ro clai s and e pert ris advice

N ur tur e a cul tur e of innovation. or the insurance industry innovation is no lon er an option it is absolutely ey or success

says iss e i a s ho as ol heu he price o not eepin up ith innovation to cuttin costs and ove ith de o raphic trends ill sho up not ust as ea er ro th but also eventually in risin clai s or a conservative business such as insurance buildin a culture o innovation can be challen in t re uires e bracin chan e at the top stayin ocused on evolvin custo er needs and ta in a test and learn approach that accepts occasional ailure he ost success ul insurers no have chie innovation

o ficers and innovation labs that or to ether ith business heads to drive chan e throu hout the or ani ation yin up ith nsur ech start ups and e ternal innovation incubators and thin tan s can be po er ul ays to trans er ne ideas

F ocus on customer - dr iven innovation

1

| 2 0 1 7 U S property- casualty insurance outlook

1020 17 U S p r o p er ty - c asu al ty insu r anc e o u tl o o k |

D r ive cost saving s b y dr aw ing on r ob otics to automate insur ance p r ocesses. n the ace o shrin in returns the first strate ic line o de ense or co panies is to use robotics to auto ate business processes and strea line bac o fice operations Di iti in routine processes can deliver si nificant near ter ains in the or o reduced costs lo er error rates and increased custo er satis action or carriers across business lines very client e are tal in ith

is loo in at deployin robotics to auto ate processes to cut costs says ollander hat s so ethin every carrier should ust do t doesn t need a lot o evaluation ust pic your vendor and fi ure out the process to tar et nce the first ave o auto ation is in place insurance carriers ill create s art auto ation that ill incorporate artificial intelli ence predictive analytics and other advanced technolo ies

Ap p l y advanced anal y tics sy stematical l y acr oss th e val ue ch ain. ccordin to David assi ecutive Director at ver the ne t

year and into analytics ill beco e a ubi uitous utility ithin insurance co panies assi sees the use o analytics spreadin across the enterprise ro decision a in to operations o e co panies had their first beachhead usin predictive analytics or pricin thers started in clai s ana e ent or under ritin s people et early ins in one place they start seein potential in other areas ne natural pro ression accordin to assi is buildin on the trends in auto ation and behavioral analytics that create s art auto ation that responds to custo er behaviors to deliver tailored solutions

B uil d I nsur T ech and smar t tech nol og ies into y our futur e p l ans. n there as a ro in push a on lar e insurers to lin up ith nsur echs actively throu h partnerships ac uisitions and

invest ents his approach not only helps incu bents et a toehold in a ast e er in ar et it provides the ith insi hts that they

pplyin s arter technolo ies to clai s ana e ent

avvy s are holdin out hope that achine learnin and bloc chain ill trans or clai s

ana e ent or e a ple accordin to a survey conducted by a based data analytics so t are co pany raud accounts or to o clai s costs or insurers orse o insurers predicted an increase in personal property raud by policyholders and rou hly predicted the sa e or personal auto insurance loc chain ay help reduce raud clai s than s to independent validation by ultiple parties i ilarly insurers can use achine learnin to replicate the clai s approval process used by insurance a ents

U se tech nol og y to imp r ove top - and b ottom- l ine p er for mance

2can apply to other parts o their business e t year established carriers ill closely onitor pro ress a on the ore than ne nsur ech entrants to deter ine hich business odels ill succeed and here to place their uture strate ic bets ill also be the year or buildin core di ital technolo ies such as cloud obility and social edia into business processes t the sa e ti e or ard loo in insurers ill e peri ent ith ne e er in technolo ies ro sensors earables shareables and real ti e data to tele atics and bloc chain


P ut cy b er r isk h ig h on th e b usiness ag enda

3P r ep ar e for th e nex t stag e of cy b er r isk . n cyber ris s

ill increase e ponentially as di ital technolo y beco es ore pervasive and cyber attac ers ore sophisticated ccordin to ay

otta rincipal in nsurance and ctuarial dvisory ervices cyber ris ill not only rise it ill also evolve yber threat ill

ove ro the di ital to the physical orld hen there are ore and ore interconnected devices and achines cyber attac ers can hac into in rastructure end trains into each other eople no are

ost a raid o losin credit card in or ation but they ill a e up to these enor ous physical ris s in ddin to the challen e

ana in cybersecurity ris can be a ovin tar et as cyber hac ers et s arter and s itch tactics

I mp l ement an active defense sy stem to p r otect ag ainst cy b er r isk . s insurers strive to protect their syste s and ederal and state authorities introduce cybersecurity re ulations buildin a co prehensive cyber ris ana e ent strate y ill be essential or lar e and s all providers ali e reco ends an active de ense pro ra that relies on our ey sta es

• denti y critical assets such as sensitive custo er insurance data sou ht by hac ers

• Develop a odel or nor al behavior on the net or so that it can easily detect unusual activities

• denti y li ely cyber attac ers

• onduct active de ense easures ro third party audits to ar a in to enable cybersecurity e ectiveness

Technologies that will have the biggest impact on insurers over the next three years

# Ch at

4 2 % 4 1 % 3 3 %

3 0 % 2 7 % 2 6 %

2 5 % 2 5 % 1 6 %

ource o ni ant and oubini hou ht ab survey

i data analytics

Di ita currency

rtificial intelli ence

yber security

obile

nternet o hin s

C loud

S ocial edia

obotics


Stage 4

Active defense

Stage 3

Stage 2

Insi

ght

Stage 1

Conduct activedefense missions

Plan, execute, review, repeat

Identify and profile the mostlikely threat actors

Inject timely intelligence to drive mission selection

Add environmental contextDevelop and leverage network and endpoint activity baselines

Identify internal critical assetsDescriptively profile at both a business and technical level

irin cybersecurity internal or e ternal e perts providin cyber ris trainin to sta and havin s or in ore closely ith tea s are all critical or an active de ense

T ur n cy b er r isk into an op p or tunity for b uil ding b usiness. recent survey conducted by the is and nsurance ana e ent

ociety ound that o co panies bou ht a stand alone cybersecurity policy in s these policies beco e the nor or lar e co panies and ore popular a on s aller businesses

insurers ill need to develop products and services and pricin ethods to eet escalatin ar et de and o be prepared

insurers need to identi y potential cyber ris s that are e bedded in their standard policies accordin to s assi e are no tal in to insurers about developin a loss control product around cyber since they are oin to be e posed on the eneral liability policies

hey need to loo at the cost benefits o bein very proactive in helpin co panies develop cybersecurity pro ra s


R eth ink str ateg ies to attr act, devel op and r etain tal ent

4H ave a cl ear view of th e futur e of w or k . ith a lar e percenta e o the or orce retirin in the years ahead and di ital trans or ation acceleratin ill be a ood ti e to ta e a hard loo o uture or needs ccordin to s ollander insurers should as the selves ey uestions such as hat or

ill need to be conducted by people hich repetitive tas s can be handled throu h robotics hat are the strate ic interpersonal and analytical tas s that e ill need a hu an brain to do s they plan ahead insurers ill also need to identi y the di ital e pertise they ill need in the uture ro artificial intelli ence social edia and bloc chain specialists to di ital ar etin and custo er care e ecutives s ollander believes that insurers should prioriti e hirin ris e perts ne t year particularly in the cyber area because that no led e ill be needed or internal operations and or providin advice to co ercial clients

U nder stand th e M il l ennial mindset. orecasts su est that by illennials ill a e up o the or orce in the

n ortunately accordin to the Insurance Journal, ore than hal o illennials perceive the industry as not bein innovative and say it has a bad i a e he industry needs to do a better ob o helpin inco in talent to understand ho e citin the business is beco in says ollander ne ay to

M o st c y b er ter r o r ist attac k s w il l b e o nl y p ar tial l y insu r ed . A nd the so c ial p o l ic y d eb ate f o r w ho b ear s the c o sts o f su c h attac k s w il l b ec o m e a m u c h b igger c o nsid er atio n in the years ahead. Just like a flood, ex c ep t p u t o n ster o id s tim es 10 . ”David ollander rincipal rnst oun

do this or e a ple is stressin the rise o di ital trans or ation and challen es o cybersecurity nsurers ill be increasin the use o technolo y such as social edia to attract illennials and tar etin essa es to their concerns such as social responsibility career advance ent entrepreneurial re ards tea or and

e ible hours uildin a collaborative culture that encoura es a ree trans er o no led e bet een inco in talent and seasoned

pro essionals ill be critical or success

“

C o ntac tsD avid H ol l ander

lobal nsurance dvisory eader

david hollander ey co

D avid B assi

david bassi ey co

J ay V otta + 1 2 1 2 7 7 3 3 0 0 0 ayvotta ey co


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