2017 retail sales forecast - seattle...2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027...
TRANSCRIPT
2017 RETAIL SALES FORECAST
City Light Review Panel
John Rudolph and Carsten Croff
January 8th 2018
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CITY LIGHT RETAIL SALES FORECASTS
1,000
1,020
1,040
1,060
1,080
1,100
1,120
1,140
1,160
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Avera
ge A
nn
ual M
Ws
2012 Strategic Plan
2014 Strategic Plan
2016 Strategic Plan
2017 Update
(2018 Strategic Plan)
Actuals
Weather
Adjusted Actuals
Chart Scale Zoomed In
*2017 based on actual sales through September
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SYSTEM LOAD HISTORY
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017
Avera
ge A
nn
ual M
Ws
Historical System Load Weather Adjusted System Load Smoothed Trend
1
1. Energy Crisis and Dot Com Bubble
2. Great Recession
3. Strong Economy with Flat Load
23
End of Growth?
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BACKGROUND AND FORECAST GOALS
• 3rd party methodology review • Completed in March 2017
• Conclusion: New methodology needed to account for
changing environment (Multi-year effort)
• Goals for 2017 forecast (rebuilding year)• Leverage Conservation Potential Assessment for
changes in end uses
• Develop robust weather normalization model
• Account for new customers being more efficient
• Develop a technical work team from across the utility
RESIDENTIAL SALES
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HOUSING STOCK
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
20
17
201
8
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
202
6
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
203
4
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
New
Ho
usi
ng
Un
its
Seattle Multifamily Seattle Single Family Suburban Multifamily Suburban Single Family
Strong multifamily growth in short-term but growth cooling in medium to long-term
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INCREMENTAL CHANGE IN RESIDENTIAL SALES
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
Ave
rage
An
nu
al M
Ws
Economic_Growth Electric Vehicles Customer_Efficiency Programmatic
Distributed Generation Climate Change Net Change
3.5 aMW is ~1% of Residential Sales
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RESIDENTIAL ENERGY INTENSITY
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
20
17
20
19
20
21
20
23
20
25
20
27
20
29
20
31
20
33
20
35
20
37
Residential kWh per meter
Actuals Forecast
weather adjusted
COMMERCIAL SALES
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SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Em
plo
yees
Ad
ded
(1000s)
Service Sector Employment Growth
Actuals Forecast
Job growth remains strong in short-term returning to
more modest levels in medium to long-term
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INCREMENTAL CHANGE IN COMMERCIAL SALES
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
20
26
20
27
20
28
20
29
20
30
20
31
20
32
20
33
20
34
20
35
20
36
20
37
20
38
Ave
rage
An
nu
al M
Ws
Economic_Growth Electric Vehicles Customer_Efficiency Programmatic
Distributed Generation Climate Change Net Change
6 aMW is ~1% of Commercial Sales
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COMMERCIAL ENERGY INTENSITY
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037
Commercial kWh per employee
Actuals Forecast
weather adjusted
INDUSTRIAL SALES
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INDUSTRIAL
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
Avera
ge A
nn
ual M
Ws
Industrial_Actuals Industrial_Before_Programmatic Industrial_After_Programmatic
2017-2038 AAGR: -0.5%
Assume Industrial will decline in-line with IHS long-term
manufacturing employment forecast ~-0.2% per year and add new
programmatic efficiencies
SUMMARY
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0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
GW
hs
Weather Adjusted
2017 RETAIL SALES FORECAST
2017-2038 AAGR: -0.4%2017-2022 AAGR: -0.7%
AAGR = average annual growth rate
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TAKEAWAYS
• Recent History• The past few years have experienced strong economic growth
• However, weather adjusted retail sales have remained flat
• Energy efficiency is offsetting economic growth
• Outlook for the future • Recent economic growth is expected to slow down
• Robust EE will continue but at a gradually declining rate
• Net impact is a small decrease in sales
• Electric Vehicles are expected to have relatively small impact
• There is still lots of uncertainty• New methodology can help decrease uncertainty but can’t
eliminate it
• Planning processes using retail sales forecast need to consider
more than just a point forecast
THANK YOU
QUESTIONS?
SUPPLEMENTAL SLIDES
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RELATIVE CHANGE BY CLASS: 2017-2025
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Residential GWh 3,146 3,164 3,179 3,197 3,172 3,150 3,128 3,112 3,084
0.6% 0.5% 0.6% -0.8% -0.7% -0.7% -0.5% -0.9%
Commercial GWh 5,261 5,197 5,128 5,071 4,993 4,941 4,890 4,855 4,799
-1.2% -1.3% -1.1% -1.5% -1.0% -1.0% -0.7% -1.2%
Industrial GWh 1,014 987 972 963 951 943 937 936 930
-2.7% -1.6% -1.0% -1.3% -0.8% -0.6% -0.2% -0.6%
Total Gwh 9,421 9,348 9,279 9,230 9,116 9,034 8,955 8,903 8,814
-0.8% -0.7% -0.5% -1.2% -0.9% -0.9% -0.6% -1.0%
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RELATIVE CHANGE BY CLASS: 2026-2038
2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034
Residential GWh 3,067 3,054 3,050 3,034 3,026 3,020 3,020 3,002 2,991
-0.6% -0.4% -0.1% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% -0.6% -0.4%
Commercial GWh 4,763 4,733 4,728 4,704 4,702 4,697 4,714 4,711 4,724
-0.8% -0.6% -0.1% -0.5% -0.1% -0.1% 0.4% -0.1% 0.3%
Industrial GWh 927 924 924 919 917 915 916 911 909
-0.3% -0.3% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2% -0.2% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2%
Total Gwh 8,756 8,711 8,702 8,657 8,645 8,632 8,650 8,623 8,624
-0.7% -0.5% -0.1% -0.5% -0.1% -0.2% 0.2% -0.3% 0.0%