2016 next gen isr velocity group presentation
TRANSCRIPT
Evolving EO/IR Commercial UAS Landscape: User Needs and Defense Trends
For TTC’s Next-Generation ISR Symposium for Military and Government
Arlington, VA. December 15-16, 2016
Ron Stearns,
Director, Business Development, Robotics and Unmanned Systems
DoD Aircraft Acquisition through the FYDP
Aircraft by Service Branch, 2015-2021 Fixed and Rotary Wing, 2015-2021 Aircraft by Category, 2015-2021
Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY 2017 budget documents
With the inclusion of zero-hour rotary-wing programs (e.g. AH-64E, AH-1W to AH-1Z) and target drones (BQM-167, QF-16) there will be 3,037 DoD aircraft deliveries from FY 2015-2021. Rotary-wing aircraft are the major FYDP acquisition driver, owed in large part to operations tempo and airlift demand in United States Central Command
U.S. Air Force, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021
Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
U.S. Army, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021
Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
DoN, Aircraft Acquisition 2015-2021
Source: Velocity Group analysis of DoD FY2017 budget documents
DoD: Aircraft with a Baseline EO/IR Turreted Sensor
OH-58D: 368
AN/AAQ-11, LMT
MX-15,MX-20L-3/Wescam
MTS Family Raytheon
4,739 Aircraft as of calendar 2014
POP 300,IAI
Alticam AC-10,Hoodtech
Unmanned Aerial Systems: Commercial Proving Grounds, Airspace Access and Safety-Case Development
Transitions, Time Compression, Part 107
May, 2014: FAA accepts petitions for
commercial UAS exemption under
Section 333 of FAA Modernization and Reform Act of 2012
First six Section 333 exemptions are issued on Sept. 25, 2014 to six
television and film companies.
5,309 Section 333s approved as of June
8,2016).
Blanket exemptions for test sites and 333 in
increasing effect. AGL from 400-800 feet
Moves toward Risk-based certification.
Night operations under Section 333.
Expedited, online commercial
registration. Part 107 released June 21, 2016
From inertia to normalized access in two years
From thousands of commercial
UAVs to potentially millions –
how can systems scale to
accommodate?
• Regulatory
• Production
• Certified equipage
• Information flow
• Command and control
• Operator certifications
• Commercial service providers
• Human-machine interface
• Airworthiness
FAA Part 107: Early Takeaways
BVLOS will usher in viable commercial Group 3 UAS
“Progress in science is not linear, but rather exhibits periods of peaceful interludes punctuated by intellectually violent revolutions.”
-Thomas Kuhn
(paraphrased from “The Structure of Scientific Revolutions”, 1962).
Gold Rush, but who are the early winners?
Imagery, data and business analytics driving CONOPS and revenues
Commercial UAV size, weight and reliability must evolve
Small businesses,Hyper localized> $1mm inrevenues
Greater: altitude, controller radius, operations over people
Increasing: mapping use, data reselling, applicability
Section 333 and Part 107 are building the safety case
Risk Classes and Commercial Best Fit
• VTOL UAV capabilities in the
40-80 lb. range are surpassed
every 18-24 months.
• Service providers are
purchasing UAVs in twos to
avoid fleet obsolescence
• UAVs less than 40 lbs. will
increasingly become a
commoditized design space
• Sensors have not met UAVs on
an equal field – Form Factors,
SWaP and costs slowly
coming into agreement
• Commercial-grade UAV
production is not yet ready to
scale manufacturing
Risk Class Aircraft Weight Example Aircraft NAS Access
RC -6 15,000 lbs. and up 2020+
RC-5 5,000-15,000 lbs. 2020+
RC-4 1,500-5,000 lbs. 2020+
RC-3 55-1,500 lbs.2019-2020
Exemptions
RC-2 6-55 lbs. Part 107
RC-1 1-6 lbs. Part 107
Commercial UAS Ecosystem Snapshot
Analyzed 647 organizations with active pursuit and/or participation in UAS markets and assigned to categories based upon stated core competency
Data Processing: video, imagery and analysis
RF/Comms: wireless, nav., detection, antennas, satcomms
EO/IR: manufacture of all modalities
Services: insurance, training, measurement, legal, field support, engineering, test, consultants
Embedded Products: GPS, PCB, computers, data storage
Electronics: MEMS, cabling, circuits, solar, avionics, IMU, switches, converters, connectors, motion control
Components: bearings, power, batteries, fasteners, servos, hydraulics, tooling, chutes, cases, ground support
Market Gap – Commercial Opportunity
Canon DSLR = 3-4 lbs. $2000 for body, lens, gantry assembly
Humidity, salinity, particulates are no-fly deal breakers
Current small camera mounting, approx. $1300
Weight wreaks havoc on small UAS capabilities. A 5-gram weight can equal 15-minutes of flight time on a 40-lb, fixed-wing UAV with 20-hour endurancePerformance penalties are worsefor VTOL UAVs. With maximum endurance of roughly 30 minutes
Desired Commercial EO/IR Sensor Properties:
1. ITAR Free – completely commercially-available, worldwide
2. Dynamically Stabilized3. Environmentally robust: day-night and
weather-tolerant (to be determined)4. Independently powered, discreet – not tied
to or pulling from UAV power5. Less than 1.5 lbs. for entire on-board
system6. Much lower power draw7. Store onboard or stream imagery8. Modular, hot-swappable payload(s)9. 3-4” diameter gimbal10. Price Point closer to $4,000 per unit.
Current Systems and Costs
DJI Inspire T600 with thermal imager $12,000
The Xenmuse (DJI) thermal camera (FLIR) retails as a standalone for $6,900
FLIRview Pro SUAS starts at $2,000 Size: 2.48" × 1.75" x 1.75“ Weight: 3.25-4 oz
AeroVironment’s i23 gimbal on DoD’s RQ-11B Raven starts at $30,000
CloudCap (UTC Aerospace Systems) TASE 150Aftermarket for $80001.98 lbs – 4.5” diameterITAR Restricted
M1-D PTZ UAV Infrared CameraList price: $9,9954.5” diameter> 2 lbs.
UAV Cost Assumptions - Total Market
• Cost assumptions for commercially-dedicated Risk Class 2-4 UAVs are derived from representative list pricing
• Price erosion will come in the Risk Class-2 VTOL market, where barriers to design and manufacture are low, and new technologies are spiraled about every 24 months
Risk Class 2 –Representative 12-bladed VTOL intended for industrial imaging. $50,000 and up
20-lb. payload
10 minutes flight time
Risk Class 3 – Yamaha’s
R-Max purely commercial imaging derivative
200 lb. MTOW
$170,000/copy
Risk Class 4 – Aurora Flight Sciences Centaur OPV
Based on DA-42 GA Aircraft - $600,000 new, add $250,000 for OPV conversion. 3,945 lb. MTOW
These represent the best commercial price/performance/cost ratios
Imagery and Data Capture, Process & Delivery: Developing Drone Layer
Electrical Government Oil & Gas AgricultureForestry
VAR VAR VAR VAR
Woolpert, OH Sewall, ME Merrick, CO Terra RS, WA
Aerial Imagery
Aerial Imagery
Aerial Imagery
Aerial Imagery
Drone Imagery Drone Imagery Drone Imagery Drone Imagery
Wholly-owned fleets, light twins, single heavies, exquisite sensors
Will providers choose to own or lease drone fleets as projects dictate? Ownership introduces elements of variable costs and unpredictability
Specialized value-added resellers incorporate and layer metadata over imagery
Established imagery and information users comprise a roughly $4 billion annual U.S. data market
9x9” imager in C182 Aeryon’s Sky Ranger
Commercial Drones can flatten this information flow, with lower investment and technical barriers to aircraft ownership and data capture, but not processing and delivery. Mapping and surveying will remain specialized skill sets.
Commercial Markets: Data Needs
Aggregate needs, determine asset utilization, preposition assets for rapid response
Major Electrical Transmission Infrastructure
Corridors stretch for up to 800 miles. There are programmed collections for vegetation encroachment, subsidence and clearances. In some cases these datasets must be collected twice annually.
There are emergency needs during brownouts or weather-related damage to the distribution infrastructure. An ISO can lose millions in days if it cannot locate and repair. The added costs come from having to purchase power from outside networks.
Even with a crewed Helicopter and an observer dedicated and on call 24/7 there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to fly. A UAV could do the dangerous work in remote areas to isolate unexpected outages, damage and/or hot spots.
Oil and Gas: Major Transmission Infrastructure Density
Map of major natural gas and oil pipelines in the U.S.
Hazardous liquid lines are in red, gas transmission lines in blue
Concentration in Texas, Oklahoma and Gulf states will help to define UAS CONOPS as well as industry and political partnerships
This represents a sophisticated, moneyed end-user set. UAS Requirements are understood and waiting for expanded BLoS airspace access
Source: Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration
Commercial UAS Value Proposition
Fixed fleet operating costs, data
driven maintenance and upgrades
Improving existing designs for
performance, SWaP, and human factors
Take new concepts from design to
manufacture under one roof
Keep fleet updated with
latest technology
Let you focus on selling
your service or platform
The Velocity Group is at the leading edge of onshore product development and rapid time-to-market. We are assembling a world-class portfolio of design and manufacturing organizations that put customer focus at the heart of everything we do.
Our mission:
We help our clients accelerate time from idea to profit by providing single-source accountability for and management of the entire range of resources needed to bring concepts to profitable, market-ready products, to scale up for manufacturing and to produce and sustain them efficiently and cost-effectively.
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