AEI’s Critical Threats ProjectUpdate and Assessment

November 15, 2016

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TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

1. A ceasefire between the Saudi-led coalition and the al Houthi-Saleh alliance may de-escalate the conflict in Yemen, but will not resolve local fights and may not be the only requirement to advance peace negotiations.

2. A brewing fight for control of oil ports in eastern Libya may reignite the civil war. 3. Southwestern Libya and the Sahel region will be a critical front in the fight

against Salafi-jihadi groups in 2017.

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| ASSESSMENTAL QAEDA

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent, and al Qaeda associatesThe Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) continues to cooperate with al Qaeda-linked groups on a tactical level in Pakistan. ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide attack at a Sufi shrine in Balochistan Province on November 12. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), TTP affiliate Jundallah, or Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) may also have ties to the attack. ISIS Wilayat Khorasan cooperated with LeJ to attack a police college in Quetta, Balochistan on October 24. ISIS is attempting to secure a foothold in Pakistan.

Outlook: Salafi-jihadi groups will continue efforts to undermine the Pakistani state by attacking security, judicial, and sectarian targets. Direct competition between Salafi-jihadi groups is unlikely to occur.

Al Qaeda NetworkThe al Qaeda network is seeking to capitalize on the results of the U.S. presidential election to drive recruitment. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula’s al Masra newspaper cited the election as evidence of Islamophobia in America, and the group’s English-language magazine Inspire urged Muslim and black Americans to carry out lone-wolf attacks. A TTP spokesman urged president-elect Donald Trump to cut off military assistance to the Pakistani government and to release Aafia Siddiqui, an al Qaeda facilitator currently imprisoned in the U.S.

Outlook: Al Qaeda will continue to use U.S. domestic issues as a propaganda tool.

SecurityPolitical and military tensions remain high between the Indian and Pakistani governments. Cross-border firing continued along the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir, killing seven Pakistani soldiers and prompting residents of several border villages to evacuate their homes. Both countries continue to accuse the other of violating the ceasefire agreement. Lashkar-e-Taiba founder Hafiz Saeed threatened India with retaliatory strikes in response to India’s targeting of Pakistan-based militant groups.

Outlook: The governments of India and Pakistan will attempt to de-escalate tensions along the Line of Control.

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PoliticalThe Saudi-led coalition and the al Houthi-Saleh alliance agreed on a preliminary road map for Yemen’s peace process brokered by the U.S. and Oman. The parties will observe a cessation of hostilities beginning on November 17. President Abdu Rabbu Mansour Hadi’s government did not participate in the negotiations. Separately, southern Yemenis protested absent government services and called for an independent South Yemen.

Outlook: The final details for a political transition of power will remain a key obstacle to finding a resolution to Yemen’s conflict.

SecurityHadi government and allied forces reinvigorated operations against al Houthi-Saleh strongholds in northern Yemen. They seized positions along roadways that cross from Saudi Arabia into al Jawf, Hajjah, and Sa’ada governorates. Al Houthi-Saleh forces intensified attacks in Taiz governorate in central Yemen in a possible effort to draw resources away from northern fronts.

Outlook: Localized fighting will most likely continue even after the November 17 ceasefire falls into place.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and ISIS in YemenAQAP remains focused on inspiring attacks in the United States while undermining security within its area of operations in southern and central Yemen. AQAP released multiple publications seeking to drive anti-U.S. sentiment and encourage lone-wolf attacks in the wake of the U.S. presidential election. AQAP attacked security forces in Abyan and Hadramawt governorates, where it seeks to preserve safe havens under pressure from Emirati-backed counterterrorism operations. AQAP-affiliated militants continue to build relationships with local forces in al Bayda governorate by participating in the fight against al Houthi-Saleh forces in central Yemen.

Outlook: AQAP will continue to motivate and plan attacks against the United States.

GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN YEMEN

1) 08 NOV: Al Houthi-Saleh forces shelled al Tuwal village, Saudi Arabia.2) 10 NOV: Hadi forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in Taiz governorate. 3) 10 NOV: Hadi forces clashed with al Houthi-Saleh forces in northern al Jawf.4) 08 NOV: Security forces raided an AQAP stronghold in southern Hadramawt. 5) 09 NOV: AQAP fired mortars at al Houthi-Saleh forces in al Bayda. 6) 09-15 NOV: AQAP attacked security forces in Abyan.

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PoliticalThe AMISOM mission continues to face setbacks as support for the mission wavers among troop contributing countries (TCCs). Top military officials representing the TCCs requested 4,000 additional troops be added to the AMISOM mandate, which currently calls for 22,000 troops. The international community is unlikely to provide additional financing and resources. A recent report by a UN monitoring group noted systemic misuse and misappropriation of funding and aid to Somalia. The European Union already cut its funding to AMISOM by 20 percent in January 2016.

Outlook: Current AMISOM troop contributing countries (TCCs) will continue to pursue their mission with limited resources.

Security AMISOM and regional security forces launched an operation to recapture strategic locations from al Shabaab militants in south central Somalia. Security forces occupied El Garas village on November 14 in order to stage from it to seize nearby Tiyeglow town, which connects multiple regional capitals, on November 15. Al Shabaab launched a complex attack to regain control of Tiyeglow hours after fleeing the town. Al Shabaab forces maintain control of other towns in south central Somalia, which the group recently occupied following the withdrawal of Ethiopian forces from the region.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will reoccupy strategic towns and villages in south central Somalia, after security forces withdraw.

Al Shabaab Al Shabaab is prioritizing the acquisition of territory over conducting mass-casualty attacks. The group conducted small-scale improvised explosive device (IED) attacks and drive-by shootings in southern Somalia that were intended to keep AMISOM and SNA forces off-balance. Al Shabaab is well aware of the fractures emerging within the AMISOM mission and is likely waiting to launch large-scale offensives until the mission weakens further.

Outlook: Al Shabaab will position itself for a possible resurgence in 2017.

GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:GULF OF ADEN HORN OF AFRICA

1) 09 NOV: Al Shabaab attacked a checkpoint near Afgoi, Lower Shabelle.2) 09 NOV: Puntland security forces attacked ISIS-linked forces near Qandala town, Bari region. 3) 14 NOV: Al Shabaab detonated an IED targeting police in Burhakabo, Bay region. 4) 14 NOV: Security forces recaptured El Garas, Bakool region from al Shabaab.5) 15-16 NOV: Security forces and al Shabaab clashed over control of Tiyeglow, Bakool region.

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PoliticalRecent cooperation between the UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA) and the Central Bank of Libya (CBL) may help alleviate the liquidity crisis in Tripoli. The liquidity crisis has exacerbated fighting between local militias and resistance to the GNA. The unlocking of funding, if it proceeds, gives the GNA the opportunity to placate competing military and political factions in the capital.

Outlook: The House of Representatives (HoR) based in eastern Libya may attempt to invalidate the GNA’s appointment of financial ministers, which was key to unlocking CBL funding. The channeling of the funds to GNA supporters, largely based in western Libya, may exacerbate polarization in Libya’s political climate.

SecurityAn anti-LNA coalition in eastern Libya may attempt to seize LNA-held oil ports by force. Forces aligned with GNA Minister of Defense Mehdi al Barghathi and Petroleum Facilities Guard (PFG) leader Ibrahim al Jadhran are gathering in al Jufra district in what may be preparation for an offensive on LNA positions, prompting the LNA to marshal forces to key sites. The LNA is also escalating Emirati-backed counterterrorism efforts in Benghazi. The LNA’s siege on an Islamist-held neighborhood is driving anti-LNA factions throughout Libya to support an Islamist coalition that includes al Qaeda associate Ansar al Sharia.

Outlook: Clashes over oil sites may spark war between the GNA and the LNA.

Ansar al Sharia and Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in LibyaISIS is positioned to counterattack against GNA-allied forces in Sirte from positions in al Jufra district, where the group has reconstituted attack teams and explosive capabilities. ISIS may also be establishing a presence in the Fezzan region in southwestern Libya. Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) maintains a support zone in the Fezzan, where alleged French or American airstrikes targeted a senior AQIM leader on November 15.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to prolong the fight for Sirte city while establishing safe havens in the Libyan desert.

WEST AFRICA LIBYA

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA LIBYA

1) 08 NOV: Rival militias clashed in al Zawiya, Tripoli. 2) 09 NOV: GNA-allied forces killed five ISIS militants in al Jiza, Sirte. 3) 13 NOV: An ISIS landmine killed two GNA-allied soldiers 17 km west of Sirte city.4) 14 NOV: Islamist militants killed 14 LNA soldiers in Qawarsha, Benghazi.5) 14 NOV: UAV strikes targeted a senior AQIM commander in Sebha, Fezzan region.6) 15 NOV: A VBIED injured 14 people in Budzira, Benghazi.

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Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and ISIS in the MaghrebISIS maintains a network that connects militant safe havens in Kasserine Governorate with the Tunisian-Libyan border region. Tunisian security forces killed the alleged emir of Jund al Khalifa, an ISIS-linked group operating in Tunisia, in western Tunisia on November 9. This operation led to the discovery of multiple arms caches near Ben Guerdane in eastern Libya. ISIS militants based in Libya attempted to seize Ben Guerdane in March 2016. The network that conducted this attack remains intact despite counterterrorism operations that have limited its capabilities.

Outlook: ISIS will continue to use western Tunisia and western Libya as safe havens for training, recruitment, and planning attacks on Tunisian population centers.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun, Boko Haram)AQIM affiliate Ansar al Din may be building its capabilities in preparation for larger attacks by freeing its members from prison. Ansar al Din promised to free all of its members held in Malian prisons following a successful prison break on November 7. Al Murabitoun, another AQIM affiliate, conducted a series of attacks targeting security forces in Gao region, central Mali. Al Murabitoun aims to preserve its safe haven in Gao by degrading security forces.

Abubakar Shekau, Boko Haram’s embattled leader, is using anti-American rhetoric in an effort to win supporters to his faction of Boko Haram. Shekau issued a statement directed at U.S. president-elect Donald Trump, saying that Boko Haram’s war against the west is “just beginning.” Shekau also claimed credit for several successful attacks on Nigerian military installations that were previously attributed to the rival ISIS-linked faction led by Abu Musab al Barnawi.

Outlook: Ansar al Din and its southern brigade, the Macina Liberation Front, will target prisons in central Mali. Shekau’s Boko Haram faction may gain the upper hand in narrative as ISIS is degraded in Iraq and Syria.

WEST AFRICA MAGHREB AND SAHEL

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| SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:WEST AFRICA MAGHREB

1) 09 NOV: Spanish police arrested four ISIS recruiters in Ceuta.2) 09 NOV: Tunisian forces killed the alleged emir of ISIS-linked Jund al Khalifa near Jebel Saloum in Kasserine Governorate. 3) 11-14 NOV: Tunisian security forces discovered ISIS-linked arms caches near Ben Guerdane.4) 14 NOV: A landmine injured eight Tunisian soldiers near Jebel Meghila in Kasserine Governorate.

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1) 08 NOV: Two Boko Haram suicide bombers attack a market in Maiduguri, Borno State, Nigeria.2) 12 NOV: Al Murabitoun attacked a military post between Timbuktu and Gao regions, Mali.3) 12 NOV: Gunmen assassinated an imam with ties to Salafi-jihadi networks in Djibo, Soum Region, Burkina Faso. 4) 14 NOV: Nigerian police clashed with the Shi’a Islamic Movement of Nigeria in Kano City, Nigeria, killing 20 people.

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ACRONYMS

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)Coordination for the Movement of the Azawad (CMA)Imghad Tuareg and Allies Self-Defense Group (GATIA)Islamic State in Iraq and al Sham (ISIS)Libyan National Army (LNA)Arab Movement of Azawad (MAA) United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)Mujahideen Shura Council in Derna (MSCD)National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)Pakistani Military (PakMil)Possible military dimensions (PMD)Somalia National Army (SNA)Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

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Katherine Zimmermanresearch managerkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org (202) 888-6576

Paul BucalaIran analystpaul.bucala@aei.org(202) 888-6573

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Heather Malacariaprogram managerheather.malacaria@aei.org(202) 888-6575

Emily Estelleal Qaeda analystemily.estelle@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Caitlin PendletonIran analystcaitlin.pendleton@aei.org(202) 888-6577

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project, visit www.criticalthreats.org.

Frederick W. Kagandirector

fkagan@aei.org (202) 888-6569