2015 year in review: the big trends impacting 2016

Moderator: Mike Ward - Content Director, Informa Panelists: Tijana Ignjatovic - Lead Analyst, Market Access, Datamonitor Healthcare Ian Lloyd - Sr. Director, Pharmaprojects and Data Integration, Citeline Jo Shorthouse - Features Editor, Scrip Intelligence

2015 Year in Review The Big Trends Impacting 2016

#ScripQs

Pharma intelligence | informa2

Stockwatch: Fanfare For a Down Year

Industry performance

s in the spotlight

Alexion Rare Disease Launches Off To Slow Start

Industry Performance

s In The Spotlight

Video Interview: Grüenthal Reveals Plans to Maintain Robust Growth Following Strong 2015

Merck Points To Keytruda, Zepatier Promise Coming Off Lackluster Quarter

Witty Wishes Everyone Would Hold Off On GSK Break-Up Chatter

AstraZeneca Faces ‘Key Pressures’ But $45bn Sales Target ‘Still Achievable’

Gilead HCV Sales Decline In US, But Offset By Global Growth

Humira Competition Dominates AbbVie Earnings

Alcon Loses CEO And Eye Drugs After Dragging On Novartis FinancialsSource data: Scrip

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Pricing and Reimbursement Emerge as Industry’s Major Challenge

Novo Nordisk Says Global Payer Pressure Limits Price Rises

JPM: Pharma Must Change Tone Deaf Message On Pricing

JPM Roundtable: Biotech’s Reputation Tarnished By Drug Pricing Concerns

Stockwatch: Taking The Temperature In San Francisco

Lilly Continues Pricing Rhetoric Despite Backlash

JPM: Are You Buying What Valeant’s Selling?

Gilead Confronts New Attacks On Pricing, Patents

Lawmakers: Time To ‘March In’ On Drug Price GougingSource data: Scrip

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Total R&D pipeline drugs 2001-2016

2015: R&D Projects up by 11.5%; R&D Companies up by 12.2%

Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

11981313

1503 1576 1621 16331769

19652084

22072387

2705 2745

2984

3286

3687

Chart Title

Total R&D companies 2001-2016Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

5995 6198 64166994

7360 74067737

92179605 9737 9713

10452 10479

11307

12300

13718Chart Title

Source data: Pharmaprojects

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Top 10 pharma companies by R&D pipeline size

Top 10 pharma companies by R&D spend

Top 25 companies account for 14.8% of drugs 2084 companies (56%) of total only have 1 or 2 drugs in their pipelines 48% of companies headquartered in US; China becomes leading Asian base

Source data: Pharmaprojects, Scrip 100

2015: The Shape of the Industry


2015: Cancer Taking Over

Source data: Pharmaprojects

4575

85393189

3181

1322

507 141 43

Injectable Implant Inhaled Ophthalmological Oral Otic Rectal TopicalTransdermal Vaginal

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Biotech Non-Biotech

Antic

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45004176

4051

2513

222120801999

1499

950 869 855 831 725608 597

254121

2015 2016

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The March of Immuno-oncology

Source data: Trialtrove, Strategic Transactions

Bristol-Myers Squibb

Roche

Merck & Co.

AstraZeneca

GlaxoSmithKline

Pfizer

Novartis

Celgene

AbbVie

Biothera

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Melanoma

Lung, Non-Small Cell

Leukemia, Chronic Lym-phocytic

Head/Neck

Breast

Pancreas

Colorectal

Renal

Prostate

Multiple Myeloma

Oncology Immunotherapy Combinations:Industry Sponsors/Collaborators

2011 2012 2013 2014 20150

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Num

ber O

f Agr

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Oncology Immunotherapy Combinations: Deals

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Pharma intelligence | informa8 ScripQs

1

Traditionally, oncology drug management

does not narrow

prescribing choice

2

3

4

Changes possible only

with KOL support

Drug value frameworks – ASCO value framework,

NCCN evidence blocks,

MSKCC’s Drug Abacus tool powered by

Real Endpoints

Other broader payer

initiatives are more likely to

impact oncology

reimbursement – oncology pathways,

ACOs, bundled payments

Oncology Payment Management in the US

Source data: Datamonitor Healthcare



Turing/Shkreli case and furor around excessive drug prices – could new drug pricing legislation be on the horizon?

3 421

Pricing Pressures in the US

Drug value frameworks and ICER reviews will influence payer decisions

Outcome-based reimbursement deals – rare sightings or replacement for contracting?

Europe has longer experience with risk-sharing – what takeaways are there for the US?



European CostContainment

Cancer Drugs Fund in the UK undergoing reform to become a managed access fund with clear entry and exit criteria

Economic evaluations in France – advisory function rather than French NICE

Germany• AMNOG reforms – moving

from a lower mixed price to a higher price with fewer patients

• Wider contracting for preferred agents likely as Bavaria’s pilot likely to be expanded

Incorporating reality of the global pricing environment in forecasting and BD&L

42

1 3

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Pharma intelligence | informa11 ScripQs

Source data: Scrip

Biopharma’s M&A Strategy in 2015

Big Pharma back in deal-making driving seatafter specialty pharma took the wheel in 2014

Record breaking 2015 M&A activity

Industry ripples from 2015 deals

Pfizer/Allergan deal eclipses rest of 2015


Pfizer beats previous deal record set by…itself

Source data: Scrip

Pfizer buys Allergan for $160bn

Pfizer domiciled in Ireland, unshackled from US tax regime

Allergan has direct access to 70 extra geographies

Which Irish companies could be acquisition targets?

#ScripQs


Source data: Scrip

Which companies have the appetite for M&A in 2016?

Straight from the ‘horse’s mouth’…

Will we see more mega-mergers in 2016?

External headwinds

2016 dealmakinghorizon

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