2015 home seller survey
DESCRIPTION
The 2015 CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® Home Seller Survey looked at sellers in greater detail. The Survey covered home seller demographics, the types of homes sold, the details of the selling experience from the owners’ perspective, and many aspects about client and real estate agent interaction.TRANSCRIPT
UNDERSTANDINGCALIFORNIAHOME SELLERS
September 24,2015
Oscar Wei, Senior Economist
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKETOUTLOOK
SALES OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Aug 2015 Sales: 431,800 Units, +7.4%YTD, +9.3%YTY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualizedSERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Aug-15:431,800
Aug-14:395,080
CALIFORNIA SALES
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally AdjustedSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct
-10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct
-11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct
-12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct
-13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct
-14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Year-over-Year % Chg 6 per. Mov. Avg. (Year-over-Year % Chg)
MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Aug 2015: $493,420, 1.0% MTM, +2.5%YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-06
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-08
Jul-
08
Jan
-09
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Aug-15:$493,420
Aug-14:$481,250
INVENTORY CONTINUED TODECLINE FROM LASTYEAR
Aug 2014: 4.0 Months; Aug 2015: 3.6 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. Theremaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and dividethe sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan
-05
Jul-
05
Jan
-…
Jul-
06
Jan
-07
Jul-
07
Jan
-…
Jul-
08
Jan
-…
Jul-
09
Jan
-10
Jul-
10
Jan
-11
Jul-
11
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
DEMAND OUTPACING SUPPLY
0%
7%
13%
-12%
-7%
-1%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
San Francisco Bay Area Southern California Central Valley
Sales Active ListingsYear-to-Year % Chg
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Aug 2015
WHERE IS THE INVENTORY?
– Investors renting instead of flipping
– Mortgage Lock-In Effect
– Where will I go?
– Foreclosure pipeline is dry
– New construction recovering but LOW
– Off-market (aka “pocket’) listings not beingcounted in listing stats
SHORT SALES CONTINUED SHRINKING
56%
88% 93% 96%
44%
12% 6.0% 4.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Equity Sale Short Sale
Q: Was the home sold as a short sale?
YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 All Sellers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
FEWER MIDDLE-AGE ADULTS IN RECENTYEARS
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
DROP IN HOMEOWNERSHIP
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
DECLINE IN # OF TRADE UP BUYERS DUE TO POPULATION LOSS &DROP IN HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
FEWER HOMEOWNERS IN THEIR 30’S, 40’S LED TORECENT DECLINE IN TRADE UP BUYERS
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
ABOUT THE SELLER
SELLERS AREYOUNGER
4346 47 46 46 46
41
3740
3537
46
63
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Median Age
Average Age
Q: What is your age?
SELLERS BY GENERATION
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gen Y (1980-1999) Gen X (1965-1979) Boomers (1946-1964) Seniors (before 1946)
Q: What is your age?
FIRST-TIME SELLERS
21%
16%
20%18% 17%
15%
33%
44%47% 48%
57%
35%
25%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Q: Was this your first experience in selling a house?
FIRST-TIME SELLERS
91%
53%
24%
9%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Gen Y Gen X Boomers Silent All
Q: Was this your first experience in selling a house?
MOST SELLERS ARE MARRIED
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
24%13%
39% 37% 36%30% 34% 37% 35% 32% 33% 32%
12% 17%
76%87%
61% 63% 64%
53% 50% 48% 50%46% 47% 48%
71%71%
17% 17% 16% 16%22% 20% 19% 12%
13%
Single Married Other
Q:What was the marital status the head of your household at the time of the sale?
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: $100,000
23%
14%
11%
24%
13%
15%
< $50,000
$50,000-$74,999
$75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999
$150,000-$199,999
$200,000+
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Q: What is your annual household income?
MEDIAN ANNUAL INCOME HAS INCREASED
Q: What is your annual household income? (Please enter only numbers, no characters --- ie. $, periods, orcommas)
$81,918
$100,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2014 2015
MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME: $100,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
< $50,000 $50,000-$74,999 $75,000-$99,999
$100,000-$149,999 $150,000-$199,999 $200,000+
Q: What is your total annual household income
TOP REASON TO SELL:MOVING TO A BETTER LOCATION
Q: What was your primary reason for selling your home?
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Other
For the investment advantages
I lost my job
To get the highest price for the home
I am an empty nester
I had trouble making the mortgage payment
I was retiring
I had to relocate for work
I had a change in family status (i.e. marriage,…
I wanted to downsize
I wanted a larger home
I wanted to move to a better location
12%
2.3%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
4.6%
7.9%
10%
11%
12%
14%
19%
TOP 5 REASONS FOR SELLING THEIR HOME(FIRST TIME VS. REPEAT)
Q: What was your primary reason for selling your home?
7%
9%
14%
20%
22%
I wanted to downsize
I had to relocate forwork
I had a change in familystatus (i.e. marriage,
child birth, divorce, etc.)
I wanted to move to abetter location
I wanted a larger home
First Time Sellers
9%
10%
12%
16%
17%
I wanted a larger home
I had to relocate forwork
I was retiring
I wanted to downsize
I wanted to move to abetter location
Repeat Sellers
REASONS FOR MOVING DIFFER ACROSSGENERATIONS
Q: What was your primary reason for selling your home?
All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Desired better location 19% 25% 20% 20% 4.5%
Wanted larger home 13% 25% 24% 3.3% 2.3%
Downsizing 12% 1.6% 6.6% 14% 32%
Change in family status 11% 16% 13% 7.6% 9.1%
Relocating for work 11% 14% 16% 8.1% 0%
I was retiring 8.0% 0% 0.6% 17% 5%
Trouble making mortgagepayment
4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 2.9% 7.0%
I am an empty nester 3.3% 0% o% 7.1% 2.3%
I lost my job 2.9% 3.1% 1.8% 4.3% 0%
For the investmentadvantages
2.1% 1.6% 3.0% 0.5% 6.8%
TECHNOLOGY USE
THERE IS A 7% INCREASE IN INTERNET USAGE
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Gen Y Gen X Boomers Silent All
72% 71%
63%
35%
57%
78% 75%
60%
32%
64%
2014 2015
¼ SELLERS LIST ZILLOW AS MOST USEFULWEBSITE
Q: What was the most useful website you visited during your home selling process?
25%
14%
14%
4%
GOOD VARIETY IN MARKETING PROPERTIES
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Social media
Online
Virtual tour
Privately marketed to agent's network
Open house
MLS
13%
27%
33%
41%
63%
80%
Q: How was your property marketed?
SELLERS’ BIGGEST CONCERN:GETTING A GOOD PRICE
7.7%
13%
13%
17%
47%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Finding qualified buyer
Selling house
Finding new house
Selling quickly
Getting good price
Q: What were your biggest concerns as a home seller?
67% OF SELLERS RECEIVED MULTIPLE OFFERS
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1 2 3 4 5+
33%
23%
20%
7.6%
16%
Q: How many offers did you receive from buyers?
SELLERS RECEIVING FEWER OFFERS
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012 2013 2014 2015
3.1
5.9
3.33.1
Nu
mb
er
ofO
ffe
rs
Average
Q: How many offers did you receive from buyers?
MAJORITY OF SELLERS ACCEPTED HIGHESTOFFER
Q: Which offer did you accept?
9%
6%
7%
8%
16%
16%
52%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Other
All cash
1st received
Personal letter/appeal from buyer
Buyer's ability to close fastest
No contingencies
Highest
MAJORITY OF SELLERS ACCEPTEDHIGHEST OFFER
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent for each of the followingaspects on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is least satisfied and 5 is most satisfied.
Category All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Highest 52% 49% 55% 52% 52%
Buyer's ability to close fastest 16% 21% 16% 18% 4%
No contingencies 16% 13% 17% 16% 16%
Personal letter/appeal from buyer 8% 10% 9% 7% 12%
1st received 7% 1% 7% 8% 4%
All cash 6% 8% 5% 4% 20%
Other 9% 13% 7% 9% 12%
Q: Which offer did you accept?
NET CASH GAIN TO SELLERS HIGHEST SINCE 2007
$120,000
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
SELLERS ARE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTUREHOME PRICES
3.4%9.1%
23%15%
66% 60%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1 Year 5 Years
Down Flat Up
Q: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? …in 5 years?
SELLERS OUTLOOK ABOUTFUTURE HOME PRICES
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent for each of the followingaspects on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is least satisfied and 5 is most satisfied.
Category All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Up in 1 year 65% 63% 67% 65% 64%
Up in 5 years 59% 59% 58% 59% 61%
Down in 1 year 3.5% 4.7% 0.6% 4.8% 6.8%
Down in 5 years 10% 13% 8.4% 9.0% 14%
Unsure in 1 year 7% 6% 5% 8% 11%
Unsure in 5 years 16% 13% 17% 17% 16%
Q: Do you think home prices in your neighborhood will go up, down, or stay flat in 1 year? …in 5 years?
MORE THAN HALF OF ALL SELLERSARE PLANNING TO BUY ANOTHER HOME
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
FEWER SELLERS MOVED OUT OF STATE
5% 6% 6%
15%
23%
34%
28%
34%
44% 44%
21%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2015
Q. In which county is your current residence located?
TOP STATES WHERE CA SELLERS HAVERELOCATED
4.3%
4.3%
5.4%
6.5%
7.0%
7.6%
8.6%
10%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12%
Florida
Idaho
Colorado
Oregon
Washington
Nevada
Texas
Arizona
Q: Which state?
SELLER/AGENT RELATIONSHIP
SELLERS THAT DID NOT USE AN AGENTREMAINS UNDER 5%
98.0%
96.9%
97.7%
95%
96%
97%
98%
99%
100%
2013 2014 2015
% that used an agent
Q. How did you find your real estate agent?
SELLERS NEEDED MOST HELP WITHNEGOTIATION
Q: In what part of the transaction seller needed the most assistance?
7%
10%
12%
16%
17%
18%
20%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Other
Negotiating the price
Preparing transaction documents
Preparing home for sale
Marketing the property
Setting the right price
Negotiating terms of sale
MAJORITY OF SELLERS FOUND AGENT BYREFERRAL/PERSONAL CONTACT
2%
3%
4%
4%
17%
25%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Didn't use agent
"For Sale Sign"
Internet
Online
Previous client
Referral
Personal contact
Q. How did you find your real estate agent?
HOW SELLERS FOUND THEIR AGENT
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent for each of the followingaspects on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is least satisfied and 5 is most satisfied.
Category All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Personal contact 29% 34% 25% 27% 43%
Referral 25% 19% 26% 27% 23%
Previous client 17% 19% 20% 15% 11%
Internet 4% 6% 2% 6% 0%
Online 4% 6% 2% 6% 0%
"For Sale Sign" 3% 5% 3% 3% 2%
Q. How did you find your real estate agent?
70% OF SELLERS INTERVIEWED ONLY 1AGENT
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1 2 3 4 5+
66%
14%
7.9%
1.4% 1.5%
70 %
13%11%
2.5% 2.9%
Number of Agents
2014
2015
Q: How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home selling process?
SELLERS INTERVIEWED SLIGHTLY MOREAGENTS
2.3 2.2
3.13.5
4.4
5.4
6.2
5.0
3.5 3.6 3.5
1.5 1.6
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Nu
mb
er
ofA
ge
nts
Average
Q: How many agents did you interview prior to selecting the agent you used in your recent home selling process?
REASON SELLER SELECTED AGENT
Trustworthy (18%)
Worked with agent on previous transaction (17%)
Recommended (17%)
Friend / acquaintance (17%)
Good reputation/successful (16%)
Fastest to respond (6%)
Q: What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent you used in your recent home sale?
REASON SELLER SELECTED AGENT
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent for each of the followingaspects on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is least satisfied and 5 is most satisfied.
Category All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Trustworthy 18% 14% 20% 18% 10%
Worked with agentpreviously
17% 22% 19% 15% 14%
Recommended 17% 13% 15% 18% 19%
Friend/Acquaintance 17% 19% 17% 13% 29%
Good reputation 16% 16% 17% 18% 14%
Fastest to repsond 6% 6% 7% 6% 2%
Q: What was the single most important reason for selecting the agent you used in your recent home sale?
MORE SELLERS CHANGED AGENTS IN 2015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
64%
22%
44%
31%
4.1%8.1%
Q: Did you initially list your home with an agent other than the one with whom you sold it?
AGENT / SELLER COMMUNICATION IN SYNC
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%37%
25%
20%
15%
39%
25%24%
10%
Preferred Actual
Q: What was the actual method of communication used most frequently with your agent?
Q: What was your preferred method of communication with your agent?
AGENTS MEET RESPONSE TIME EXPECTATIONS
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Instantly Within 30Minutes
Within 1Hour
Within 2Hours
Within 4Hours
Within 1business
day
> 1 businessday
8.8%
26%
16%
10%
15%16%
6.4%5.1%
16% 16%
13%
21%
28%
1.0%
Actual Expected
Q: On average, what was the ACTUAL time in which your agent responded to your communications?
Q. What was the typical response time you expected from your agent to return any form of communication to you?
SELLER RESPONSE TIME EXPECTATIONS
All GenY Gen X Boomers Silent
Instantly 5.1% 4.8% 7.9% 3.9% 0%
Within 1 hour 16% 16% 17% 17% 12%
Within 2 hours 12.% 13% 8.0% 15% 19%
Within 1 business day 28% 24% 31% 26% 33%
Q. What was the typical response time you expected from your agent to return any form of communication to you?
SLIGHT DECLINE IN SELLER SATISFACTION
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent for each of the followingaspects on a scale of 1 to 5, where 1 is least satisfied and 5 is most satisfied.
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent on these three things using a 1 to 5 scale where 1 is “LeastSatisfied” and 5 is “Most Satisfied”.
Category 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Value received for what you paid your realestate agent
3.1 3.0 3.0 4.4 3.9
Overall satisfaction with the real estateagent
2.8 2.8 2.7 4.4 4.2
Overall satisfaction with the home sellingprocess
2.6 2.5 2.6 4.4 4.0
SELLER SATISFACTION DECREASED IN 2015
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Agent Selling process
Q: Please rate your degree of satisfaction with your agent on these three things using a 1 to 5 scale where 1 is “LeastSatisfied” and 5 is “Most Satisfied”.
SELLER SATISFACTION WAS NEGATIVELY AFFECTED BYMISCOMMUNICATION OR LACK OF COMMUNICATION
1. Stayed on top of process(44%)
2.Good/excellent job (13%)
3. Agent was professional(11%)
1. Didn’t communicate well(5.6%)
2. Could have done a betterjob (5.4%)
3. Could have sold for higherprice (1.8%)
Q: Please explain why you had that level of satisfaction with your agent.
SELLER ADVICE TO AGENTS
47% • Work hard and stay on top of everything
47% • Be honest and ethical
46% • Keep client informed
34% • Listen to client needs
33% • Be up front with clients
30% • Explain the process
27% • Set the correct listing price
Q: What advice would you give to real estate agents to improve the process or level of service?
4/10 SELLERS WOULDN’T CHANGE ANYTHINGABOUT THEIR RECENT SALE
Q: If there was one thing you could change about your recent home sale, what would it be?
Sell Home for higher price (22%)
Hire a better real estate agent (13%)
Not have to sell (10%)
Sell the home faster (5%)
Do more research about selling process (4%)
CONCLUDING REMARKS
THE TAKEAWAY
– CA housing market remains strong
– Sellers are optimistic about the futurehousing market, and many want to buyanother home
– Sellers need help with negotiation
2015 Annual Housing Market Survey:An Overview of the California
Housing Market
Thursday, October 29, 2015
2:00 PM – 3:00 PM
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