2015 global marketing outlook - farmsmart · 2015 global marketing outlook robert anwender grain...

2015 Global Marketing Outlook

Robert Anwender Grain Merchandiser

My Predictions

Supply/Demand:

• The World can produce more grain than we can handle… need more demand

Prices:

• Funds bail on commodities as US equities rise

• Corn buys more acres… current ratio 2.30

• US Farmer forward sells after planting, pushing futures back lower

• Canadian Dollar stays weak

Canadian Production


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Ontario Soybean Production ('000 mt)

2014 production: 3,791,000 mmt (record) • 23% increase from 2013

Canada Soybean Production

Who does Canada Export to?

Statistics Canada: 2014

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Ontario Corn Production ('000 mt)

2014 production: 7,600,000 mmt • down 15% from 2013

Canada Corn Production

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Ontario Winter Wheat Production ('000 mt)

Early forecasts estimate production for 2015 under 2 mmt due to lower acreage

US Production


U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand

January 12, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

December 10

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Planted area (million acres) 76.8 83.7 -0.6 8.9

Harvested area (million acres) 76.3 83.1 -0.4 8.9

Yield (bushels per acre) 44.0 47.8 0.7 8.5

Million bushels

Beginning stocks 141 92 0.0 -34.6

Production 3,358 3,969 0.3 18.2

Imports 72 15 0.0 -79.1

Total supply 3,570 4,076 0.3 14.2

Crush 1,734 1,780 0.0 2.7

Seed and residual 98 116 0.7 18.7

Domestic use 1,832 1,896 0.0 3.5

Exports 1,647 1,770 0.6 7.5

Total use 3,478 3,666 0.3 5.4

Ending stocks 92 410 0.0 345.7

Percent

Stocks to use ratio 2.6 11.2

Dollars per bushel

Average market price 13.00 9.45/10.95 2.0 -21.5

USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Hightower 2015/16 Estimates

US SOYBEANS Dec Dec Dec Changes in Planted Acres Est.

USDA USDA USDA 15 Yr. Trend Line Yield

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15

Planted Area (M Acres) 75.7 77.5 77.4 75.0 77.2 76.8 84.2 86.2 87.2 88.2

Harvested Area (Acres) 74.7 76.4 76.6 73.8 76.1 76.3 83.4 85.3 86.3 87.3

Yield (Bu/Acre) 39.7 44.0 43.5 41.9 40.0 44.0 47.5 45.5 45.5 45.5

Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 205 138 151 215 169 141 92 410 410 410

Production 2,967 3,359 3,329 3,094 3,042 3,358 3,958 3,883 3,928 3,973

Imports 13 15 14 16 41 72 15 15 15 15

Supply,Total 3,185 3,512 3,494 3,325 3,252 3,570 4,065 4,308 4,353 4,398

Crushings 1,662 1,752 1,648 1,703 1,689 1,734 1,780 1,810 1,785 1,810

Exports 1,279 1,499 1,505 1,365 1,317 1,647 1,760 1,770 1,695 1,770

Seed 90 90 87 90 89 98 92 92 92 92

Residual 16 20 43 -2 16 0 23 22 22 22

Use, Total 3,047 3,361 3,279 3,155 3,111 3,478 3,655 3,694 3,694 3,694

Ending Stocks 138 151 215 169 141 92 410 614 659 704

Stocks/Use Ratio 4.5% 4.5% 6.6% 5.4% 4.5% 2.6% 11.2% 16.6% 17.8% 19.1%

2015/16 Soybean Predictions

U.S. Corn Supply and Demand

January 12, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

December 10

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Planted area (million acres) 95.4 90.6 -0.3 -5.0

Harvested area (million acres) 87.5 83.1 0.0 -4.9

Yield (bushels per acre) 158.1 171.0 -1.4 8.2

Million bushels

Beginning stocks 821 1,232 -0.3 50.0

Production 13,829 14,216 -1.3 2.8

Imports 36 25 0.0 -30.1

Total supply 14,686 15,472 -1.2 5.4

Feed and residual 5,036 5,275 -1.9 4.8

Food, seed, and industrial 6,501 6,570 0.4 1.1

Ethanol 5,134 5,175 0.5 0.8

Domestic use 11,537 11,845 -0.6 2.7

Exports 1,917 1,750 0.0 -8.7

Total use 13,454 13,595 -0.5 1.0

Ending stocks 1,232 1,877 -6.0 52.4

Percent


Dollars per bushel


USDA SUPPLY/DEMAND Hightower 2015/16 Estimates

US CORN Dec Dec Dec Changes in Planted Acres Est.

USDA USDA USDA If 164 Yield

08-09 09-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15

Planted Area (M Acres) 86.0 86.4 88.2 91.9 97.3 95.4 90.9 88.9 86.9 84.9

Harvested Area (Acres) 78.6 79.5 81.4 84.0 87.4 87.7 83.1 81.3 79.4 77.6

Yield (Bu/Acre) 153.9 164.7 152.8 147.2 123.1 158.8 173.4 164.0 164.0 164.0

Beginning Stocks (M Bu) 1,624 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236 1,998 1,998 1,998

Production 12,092 13,092 12,447 12,360 10,755 13,925 14,407 13,329 13,029 12,729

Imports 14 8 28 29 160 125 25 25 25 25

Supply, Total 13,729 14,774 14,182 13,517 11,904 14,782 15,668 15,352 15,052 14,752

Feed & Residual 5,182 5,126 4,798 4,566 4,315 5,132 5,375 5,460 5,460 5,460

Food, Seed & Industry 5,025 5,961 6,425 6,421 6,038 6,497 6,545 6,550 6,550 6,550

Ethanol for Fuel 3,709 4,591 5,019 5,000 4,641 5,134 5,150 5,165 5,165 5,165

Domestic Total 10,207 11,087 11,224 10,987 10,353 11,629 11,920 12,010 12,010 12,010

Total Exports 1,849 1,979 1,831 1,541 730 1,917 1,750 1,850 1,850 1,850

Use, Total 12,056 13,066 13,055 12,528 11,083 13,546 13,670 13,860 13,860 13,860

Ending Stocks 1,673 1,708 1,128 989 821 1,236 1,998 1,492 1,192 892

Stocks/Use Ratio 13.9% 13.1% 8.6% 7.9% 7.4% 9.1% 14.6% 10.8% 8.6% 6.4%

2015/16 US Corn Predictions

U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand

January 12, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

December 10

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Planted area (million acres) 56.2 56.8 0.0 1.0

Harvested area (million acres) 45.3 46.4 0.0 2.3

Yield (bushels per acre) 47.1 43.7 0.0 -7.2

Million bushels

Beginning stocks 718 590 0.1 -17.8

Production 2,135 2,026 0.0 -5.1

Imports 169 180 0.0 6.8

Total supply 3,021 2,796 0.0 -7.5

Food use 952 960 0.0 0.8

Seed 77 74 -2.7 -4.0

Feed and residual 226 150 -16.7 -33.5

Domestic use 1,255 1,184 -2.6 -5.7

Exports 1,176 925 0.0 -21.4

Total use 2,431 2,109 -1.5 -13.3

Ending stocks 590 687 5.0 16.4

Percent


Dollars per bushel


World Production


World Soybean Production Country or

Region

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

November 10

Change from

2013/14

Million Tons Percent Percent

World 285.3 312.8 0.2 9.6

United States 91.4 107.7 0.0 17.9

Foreign 193.9 205.1 0.4 5.8

Argentina 54.0 55.0 0.0 1.9

Brazil 86.7 94.0 0.0 8.4

Paraguay 8.2 8.5 3.7 3.7

Ukraine 2.8 3.8 8.6 37.0

India 11.0 11.0 0.0 0.0

China 12.2 11.8 0.0 -3.3

December 10, 2014

“Take a Number, Please!”

World Soybean Supply and Use 2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

November 10

Change from

2013/14


Beginning stocks 56.3 66.6 -0.4 18.3

Production 285.3 312.8 0.2 9.6

Total Supply 341.6 379.4 0.1 11.1

Domestic crush 239.8 251.9 0.0 5.0

Total use 272.6 286.1 0.1 4.9

Trade 112.8 116.2 0.6 3.0

Ending Stocks 66.6 89.9 -0.5 35.0

Addendum:

China imports* 70.4 74.0 0.0 5.2

*From all sources.

December 10, 2014

World Corn Production

Country or Region

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

November 10

Change from

2013/14


World 989.3 991.6 0.1 0.2

United States 353.7 366.0 0.0 3.5

Foreign 635.6 625.6 0.2 -1.6

Argentina 25.0 22.0 -4.3 -12.0

Brazil 79.3 75.0 0.0 -5.4

Mexico 23.0 23.0 0.0 0.2

Canada 14.2 11.5 0.0 -19.0

European Union 64.2 73.6 0.7 14.6

FSU-12 46.9 42.7 0.0 -9.0

Ukraine 30.9 27.0 0.0 -12.6

Russia 11.6 12.0 0.0 3.1

South Africa 14.8 13.5 0.0 -8.5

China 218.5 215.5 0.7 -1.4

India 24.2 21.0 0.0 -13.2

December 10, 2014

Limited Incentives to Plant Corn in SA • Clearly negative incentives:

– Low corn prices especially relative to soybeans.

– Export taxes at 20 percent, inflation over 40 percent in Argentina

– High input costs.

– Lowest FOB pricing since 2009 for corn. – Argentine government continues to work against the farmers

in selling and planting corn.

• Even the “positives” are not so great: – China is short on corn supplies, but the U.S. has a record large

corn crop

– The EU market has very limited needs this year

December 10, 2014

These estimates assume good weather in next

several months

World Wheat Production

December 10, 2014

Country or Region

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

November 10

Change from

2013/14


World 714.8 722.2 0.3 1.0

United States 58.1 55.1 0.0 -5.1

Foreign 656.7 667.1 0.3 1.6

Argentina 10.5 12.0 0.0 14.3

Canada 37.5 29.3 6.5 -21.9

Australia 27.0 24.0 0.0 -11.1

European Union 143.1 155.4 0.0 8.6

Russia 52.1 59.0 0.0 13.3

Ukraine 22.3 24.5 0.0 10.0

Kazakhstan 13.9 12.5 4.2 -10.3

China 121.9 126.0 0.0 3.3

India 93.5 95.9 0.0 2.6

World Wheat Supply and Use 2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

November 10

Change from

2013/14


Beginning stocks 174.5 185.3 -0.2 6.2

Production 714.8 722.2 0.3 1.0

Total Supply 889.2 907.5 0.2 2.1

Feed use 130.3 139.2 -0.5 6.9

Total use 703.9 712.6 0.0 1.2

Trade 165.8 158.0 2.0 -4.7

Ending Stocks 185.3 194.9 1.0 5.2

December 10, 2014

Futures Markets


High Prices Kill High Prices…

How does a falling dollar affect you?

• Canadian Dollar has dropped 6% in 2015… so far

Price Summary

January 12, 2015

2013/14

estimate

2014/15

forecast

Change from

December 10

Change from

2013/14

Percent Percent

Crops and products

Wheat ($/bu) 6.87 6.10 1.7 -11.2

Rice ($/cwt) 16.10 14.10 -2.8 -12.4

Corn ($/bu) 4.46 3.65 4.3 -18.2

Soybeans ($/bu) 13.00 10.20 2.0 -21.5

Soybean oil (¢/lb) 38.23 33.00 -2.9 -13.7

Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 489.94 360.00 0.0 -26.5

Cotton (¢/lb) 77.90 61.50 0.0 -21.1

Livestock

Steers ($/cwt) 154.6 165.0 -0.6 6.8

Hogs ($/cwt) 76.0 62.5 -4.9 -17.8

Broilers (¢/lb) 104.9 103.3 -0.7 -1.6

Turkeys (¢/lb) 107.6 107.0 0.0 -0.6

Dairy products

Cheese 2.16 1.63 -2.0 -24.2

Butter 2.14 1.66 -3.8 -22.5

Nonfat dry milk 1.77 1.30 -5.2 -26.5

Dry whey 0.65 0.57 -1.2 -13.5

Milk classes

Class III ($/cwt) 22.34 16.60 -2.1 -25.7

Class IV ($/cwt) 22.09 16.05 -5.0 -27.3

All milk ($/cwt) 23.97 18.15 -3.7 -24.3

My Predictions

Supply/Demand:

• The World can produce more grain than we can handle… need more demand

Prices:

• Funds bail on commodities as US equities rise

• Corn buy more acres… current ratio 2.30:1

• US Farmer forward sells after planting, pushing futures back lower

• Canadian Dollar stays weak

Questions?

Thanks for your time! Robert Anwender Grain Merchandiser BroadGrain Commodities Inc. 519-275-2020 x.206 [email protected]

2015 global marketing outlook - farmsmart · 2015 global marketing outlook robert anwender grain...

Documents