2015 global change, energy architecture and leadership lecture series presentation slides...
TRANSCRIPT
2015 Year of Climate Change Agreement and the Sustainable Development post-2015 Agenda
Global Change, Energy & Sustainable Development and our Leadership
17th June 2015- Amsterdam
Adriaan Kamp
Prof. Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute: The Age of Sustainable Development
04/15/23
Clickable Video Presentation
G7 and the next 100 years
Pope Francis and his Encyclical – on Poverty and the Environment
2009- - Founder of Energy For One World/ CEO World
A practice on Global Change, Energy , Sustainable Development and Leadership.
Program Director Nyenrode BU Executive Program- The Netherlands: Energy MBA
17 years Shell International : Upstream
Oil and Gas Project and Business Development ( 5 Countries and HQ).
Director and Entrepreneur of Start-ups
Adriaan Kamp
Contents of Session
1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures
3. Our (Change) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality
4. Wrap-up
How are we going to live together and provide energy to all people of this world – reliably,
sustainably, affordable, and in harmony?
Can we build Sustainable Societies for all?
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Sustainable Development- Some Highlights
1968 Club of Rome
1987 Gro Brundland Commission- Definition of Sustainable Development
1992 Rio Earth Summit
1997 Kyoto Protocol
2000 UN Millennium Developments Goals
2002 Cradle-to-Cradle Philosophies- Mc Donough/Braungart
2006 Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth
2009 Copenhagen
2012 Rio+20: Re-thinking Sustainability/ Sustainable Energy For All. Jurgen Randers: 2052 (Club of Rome).
2014 COP 20 -Lima and Defining Post-2015 SDG.
2015 Paris New Climate Change agreement and Post-2015 SDG04/15/23
Year 2015 – A Pivot Year• Feb: February 5-7 – Delhi Sustainable Development Summit
| New Delhi, India• March: Returns in from Voluntary Contributions INDC.• May : 12-13 – Bonn Conference for Global Transformation |
Bonn, Germany / 2nd annual United Nations Sustainable Energy for All Forum from 17-21 May New York
• June: UN Vienna Energy Forum 18-20 June; 18th June: Pope Encyclical.
• July: 7-10 – Our Common Future under Climate Change | Paris, France; Addis Ababa Accord- Financing for Sustainable Development- 13- 16 July
• September: 25-27 UN General Assembly/ SDG post-2015• December: Paris Climate Change Agreement - Nov 30-Dec
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By defining our goal more clearly, by making it seem more manageable and less remote, we help all people to see it, to draw hope from it, and to move irresistibly towards it.
UN Climate Change Summit in NY & Climate Change, Cop20 in Lima- 2014
15.04.23
Geopolitical shifts and re-alignments
• Economic and finance system change and fundamentals
• A new technological era
• Global production systems & the rise of new (multinational) corporations
• Social Changes (network economies), and the quest for wealth justice
• Planetary boundaries/ Resource Scarcities
• Demographic change and migration/ Changing labour markets
Global Change
20
2014 2030-2050
7 Billion People
9 Billion People
90 trillion USD
economy
180-210 trillion
USD
225 million oil eq/day
500- 750 million
oil eq/day 400 ppm CO2 and Carbon Budget
consumed for 2 degrees/ 21st century
??? ppm CO2 and Climate Change Effects
The world needs energy
04/15/23 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
Shell Energy Scenario: we do not know how it will play out…
Linear (logarithmic) relation between Energy Consumption and GDP
04/15/23 Source: Jeffrey Sachs- Earth Institute, 2014
BP Energy Outlook 2035
04/15/23
A complex system
Sources of Energy Consumers of Energy
1. Coal Power- sector
2. Fossil Oil & Gas Transportation
3. Nuclear Agriculture
4. Renewables- Solar, Wind, Hydro, Biomass, Geothermal
Municipalities and buildings
5. Energy Savings Industry
Supply vs Demand
The World Energy System- A Complex System (2)
Global Footprints and unequal resource use
04/15/23
The creeping-up of energy prices...
04/15/23
.Energy prizes determining the outlook and business opportunity space (margins) and drivers for change...
_______ Japan ________ Europe ________North America
India
Future Strategies and Scenario’s: With Uncertainties
04/15/23
One World. Many Needs. Many Views
BRIC:
It’s our time. Let us grow our Economies and take care of
our peopleYou’ll fix whatever you want
to fix!
The West:“If you do as I have done
it will be a mess.”
Let us all change- rapidlyLet’s secure our nation,
people and planet
Emerging:Will there be enough for
us?Can i afford it?
Who will deliver it to me?
The poor:When will we see electricity and get
mobility?
Opec and GasPec:You need us!
We can deliver your needs!What is all that fuzz about
Availability and climate change?
Prognosis Renewables/CleanTech
2030-2040 BAU ReMap2030 UN DDCP (Business As Usual) (IRENA/UN Energy For All) (exponential growth)
21 % 30% > 70%
BAU= Business As Usual, ReMap2030= UN Energy For All Study and PlanDDCP= UN Sustainable Development Goals post-2015/ Deep-De-carbonization project
Thomas Piketty and Pope Francis On Capital, Wealth and Social Justice
04/15/23
Clickable Video Presentation Clickable Video Presentation
The State of Our World Energy System
Three wise moves:
• The Western (OECD-) countries could do well if they were able to “make room” and reduce their average fossil energy footprint significantly, in order to-
• Allow and facilitate the non-OECD countries to grow and allow their benefits and wealth creation (opportunity) from fossil energy.
• The general predicted increase in world average energy consumption per capita should ideally be generated by non-fossil fuels such as renewable energy. Overall world fossil fuel production is not to rise and should taper-down significantly if we do not wish to cross levels which can no longer be sustained or guaranteed for our economies, societies or nature.
And an action agenda:
• A political agenda: “We need better oversight and agreement on the rules of the game on sustainability and the dynamic developments in the world energy system.” We need policies, markets and regulations which supports the new
• A business and large (energy) corporation agenda: “making room for the new: enabling the development of energy architectures of the 21st century”
• A social agenda: “we need to allow for the poor and middle-class incomes: ensuring that energy once and when made available – remains affordable.”
• We need leadership values of the 21st century : allowing for better integration of sustainability in the energy value chains and across borders.
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John Naisbitt : Mind Set!1. While many things change, most things remain
constant2. The future is embedded in the present3. Focus on the score of the game4. Understanding how powerful it is not to have to be
right5. See the future as a big puzzle6. Don’t get so far ahead of the parade that people don’t
know you’re in it.7. Resistance to change falls if benefits are real8. Things that we expect to happen always happen more
slowly9. You don’t get results by solving problems but by
exploiting opportunities10. Don’t add unless you subtract11. Don’t forget the ecology of technology
John Naisbitt’s first published Book Megatrends (1982) was at the top of the NYT bestseller list for more than 2 years. His experience reaches from executive positions in the corporate world to appointments by Kennedy and Johnson, and as an entrepreneur. He is a former visiting fellow at Harvard University, a former visiting professor at Moscow State University, and currently a faculty member of the Nanjing University in China. He has lived in three continents and travels the world as one of the most sought-after speakers. He holds fifteen honorary doctorates in the humanities, technology and science.
2/1/2012 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
happensshift
Predictability
Clickable Video Presentation
The Future is embedded in the PresentThe Future is Uncertain
The Future can be Shaped and BuildThe Future is Now
UN Regional Blocks
Countries Cities
Communities Companies and InstitutesCo-alitions of the Willing
A Vision on our Future(typical of Futurists)
Clickable Video (YouTube) Presentation
Network
Society
Business and Technology
Government
Economy &
Politics
Old vs New Clickable Presentations
Vs 250 Bn USD investment
The State of Our World Energy System
The world energy system is presently rapidly changing – and under the influence of:
• Population Growth• Wealth Distribution• Energy Demand Increase• Distribution and Prize Fluctuations• Economy and Society• Planetary Boundaries and Climate Change
Givens:
• Five worlds- Five Emotions (OECD, BRICS, Opec/Gaspec, Emerging and Developing, Poor)
• Present Realities in Technology and New Frontiers in the Cleantech- Fossil Industry
• Global, Local and Regional dimensions• Importance and Realities of Business, Society, Ecology, Economy and
Politics
AND WHERE IT ALL MATTERS..
Sustainable Community Building
The Rise of a new middle-class ( 3 Billion) – in MegaCitiesand more people live in Greater Tokyo (35m) than in all of Canada
The top 10 cities by population:
1. Tokyo, (34 million)2. Seoul (24.4 million)3. Guangzhou (24.2 million)4. Mexico City (23.4 million)5. Delhi (23.2 million)6. Mumbai (22.8 million)7. New York (22.2 million)8. Sao Paolo (20.9 million)9. Manila (19.6 million)10.Shanghai (19.4 million)
All above fit comfortably into the list Of Top-50 nations by population
Contents of Session
1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures
3. Our (Change) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality
4. Wrap-up
Cleantech has over the last 10 years made an impact over a wide range of businesses
04/15/23
. Awareness for “Clean” has risen thanks to a problem we need to solve
Wind Powering US- what it takes to win(d)...
04/15/23
Largest Offshore Wind Farm’s
4
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
An offshore area of 100km2175 wind turbinesTwo offshore substationsNearly 450km of offshore cablingOne onshore substation630MW of electricityEnough power for nearly half a million homes
Bloombergs
Largest Solar Farm (First Solar)
2 4 8 16 32 64 128 256 512 1024
2 yr 4yr 6yr 8 yr 10 yr 12 yr 14 yr 16 yr 18yr 20 yr
5 yr 10 yr 15 yr 20 yr 25 yr 30 yr 35 yr 40 yr 45 yr 50 yr
3500 hectares160,000 homes1,5 Bn USD550 MW8 million panels
Eco-Modernity at and around homes
Solar City- A New Value Proposition
Exxon Mobile- Transport Outlook
04/15/23 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
In the words of a car-manufacturer, Carlos Ghosn
Electric Vehicles sales are in direct correlation with the number and amount of charging stations installed in a city, region or nation.
It's a public-private partnership. It's a matter of trust. It's a matter of convenience. But it surely the way to go into our Future.
(Carlos doesnot believe in fuel-celled LPV's. He is truly committed to the electrification of self-driving and navigating new car concepts)
Smart Cities: Governments will increasingly invest in embedding intelligence into the infrastructure of new and existing urban cities
The vision of “Smart Cities” is the urban center of the future, made safe, secure environmentally green, and efficient because all structures - whether for power, water, transportation, etc. are designed, constructed, and maintained making use of advanced, integrated materials, sensors, electronics, and networks which are interfaced with computerized systems comprised of databases, tracking, and decision-making algorithms. - U.S. Dept. of Energy, “The Vision of a Smart City”, 2000
Examples of New, Smart or Sustainable Cities:• C40 – Vancouver, Oslo, New York, etc. • Masdar, Abu Dhabi, • New Songho City, South Korea, • Gujarat International Finance Tec-City, India• King Abdullah + Economic CitIES, Saudi Arabia• e.g. China Tianjin Development• •PM Modi’s 100 smart cities
•King Abdullah Economic City, Saudi Arabia
World Power Sector- IEA, June 2015
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From WEF/ Accenture: The energy architecture is an integrated physical system of energy sources, carriers and demand sectors shaped by
government, industry and civil society.
The energy architecture on location is a reflection of the socio-political, economic, ecological and business philosophies,
leadership and interests exercised on location.
The energy architecture in a country, region or global community is (ideally) to serve (the rise of, establishment of) thriving sustainable societies-
making energy available, affordable and sustainable to all: balancing economic interests with that of society and nature. Here and there. Now
and in the future.
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Energy Architecture
Energy & SustainabilityToday From now on
1
2
3
45 1 2
3
4
5
Re-inventing Strategies/Relationships: “X-Factor of Integration, Transition
and Transformation”
1 2
3
4
5
Old vs New Clickable Presentations
Vs 250 Bn USD investment
“Every Energy Company and Every Energy Architecture in this world can be improved
upon in order to raise the availability, affordability and sustainability of energy to
all”.- Adriaan Kamp, 2015
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Contents of Session
1. Global Change, Climate Change and the Sustainable Development Agenda post -2015
2. Energy Trends, Energy transition/ architectures
3. Our (Change, Business) Leadership- Global, Regional, Local. From Plan (Strategy) to Reality
4. Wrap-up
John D. Rockefeller, 1870: Business Tycoon, Legend and Founder of the
first oil major• As no other before- he knew the
importance of standards and scale and of access to market (re. transportation prices and rights). By so doing- he built the first true oil mayor. Unbeatable in Price.
• Deal-making behind closed-doors and looking at global opportunities in the market with an analytical eye and self-interest.
• “Old boys”- network• But also the creator of the Rockefeller
Human Value and Freedom Principles, enshrined at Rockefeller Centre, New York.
04/15/23 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
Michael Porter: “Niche, Cost Leadership or Differentiation” and his remorse in 2011
04/15/23 Energy For One World- All Rights Reserved
Following several corporate crisis, including the US financial and Wall Street scandals in 2008, Occupy Wall Street, etc.:
«A big part of the problem lies with companies themselves, which remain trapped in an outdated approach to value creation that has emerged over the past few decades. They continue to view value creation narrowly, optimizing short-term financial performance in a bubble while missing the most important customer needs and ignoring the broader influences that determine their longer-term success.
How else could companies overlook the wellbeing of their customers, the depletion of natural resources vital to their businesses, the viability of key suppliers, or the economic distress of communities in which they produce and sell? How else could companies think that simply shifting activities to locations with ever lower wages was a sustainable «solution» to competitive challenges?»*
Conscious Capitalism The rise of new (global and business)
leadership: Gandhi’s and Mandela’s Neuroscience , psychology and spirituality Gaia, Oneness and Global Mind-set.
Transformative leadership
Conscious Humanity
“Only good can come from good”
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What Happy and Conscious people know
•
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“Manage others as you would like to be managed yourself”
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Organizing people
04/15/23
Servant Leadership : a simple but o so powerful idea : Turning you 180 degrees and making you
available for growth..
Here’s the essence of the gospel of Greenleaf. First and foremost, truly great managers want to serve the people they lead. They do this by supporting them rather than dictating to them, and by assigning top priority to employee well-being. Deceptively simple and deeply profound.
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Three dimensions
“Good is the enemy of Great”
Core Values
Cultural Dimensions
Global People SkillsCONSCIOUS
UNCONSCIOUS
Ernest Gundling: Understanding Cultures and Relationships. The way it works
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“Resistance to change falls when the benefits are clear”
APPENDIX – MEDIA LIBRARY
Recommended Reading- Bibliography
• John Naisbitt, Mind Set, Reset your thinking and see the future, Harper Collins Publishers- 2006
• Dominique Moisi, The Geopolitics of Emotion, Double Day, 2009• A. G. Lafley/ Ram Charan, The Game-changer, Crown Publishing, 2008• Larry Bossidy/ Ram Charan, Execution- Random House, 2002• Hermann Scheer, Energy Autonomy, Earthscan, 2007• Al Gore, Our Choice, Rodale , 2009• Al Gore – the Future, Random House, 2013• Ernest Gundling, Working GlobeSmart, Davies Black, 2003• Stephen Howarth, A century in oil, Weidenfeld & Nicolsen, 1997• David S. Landes, The wealth and poverty of nations, W.W. Norton &
Company, 1999• Piketty , Capital in the 21st century, 2014• Pope Francis, The Joy of the Gospel, Evangelii Gaudium, 2013• Thomas Barnett, A Blueprint for Action, The Pentagon’s new map
Recommended WatchList- Youtube Video’s
• A Conversation with Al Gore: Six Drivers of Global Change: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwXV5Sknr8o
• Jeffrey Sachs, Coursera, The Age of Sustainable Development: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7PTbo4ZSW0
• Montreux 2013 - Jo Confino and Peter Bakker https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Rzb4YyDkTE
• Arnold Swarzenegger in Wien 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9uBJnCnhC4
• Kandeh Yumkella http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TnGFKPnxlzUhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8e0ecN5fjxA
• Dr. Herman Scheer (T) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_z7cdDYP_zg• Prof Dominique Moisi: Planetary Fears
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-GnN60Vd7k8• Energy For One World Channel:
https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PL-Lz-6ja0KC_a3ccQKvxf87YquWxb5SWq
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