2015 fed challenge nov_16 (2)
TRANSCRIPT
Jeffrey Lacker and His Advisors
Jeffrey Lacker:
President and CEO
of Richmond Fed
Kartik Athreya:Sr. VP
John A Weinberg:
Sr. VP
Andreas Hornstein: Sr. Advisor
Robert L. Hetzel:
Sr. Economist
2
Goals For Today’s Meeting
1. Assess Progress in Reaching Dual Mandate
2. Analyze Global Economic Conditions
3. Align Monetary Policy Proposal for December
FOMC Meeting with Economic Progress
3
Unemployment Rate
U-3 declined to 5% in October, down from its 10% peak and the U-6 fell to 9.8%, now
within the range of where the Fed previously tightened4
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Labor Force Participation Rate
The Labor Force Participation Rate currently stands at 62.4%5
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Non-Farm Payrolls
The U.S. economy added an impressive 271,000 jobs in October
6
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
U.S. GDP Growth
U.S. GDP in the 3rd quarter advanced at a 1.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate7
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
PCE Inflation vs. Core PCE
Core PCE is currenly subdued at 1.31% year over year
8
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
FOMC PCE Expectations
The FOMC expects Core PCE to decline thoughout 2015 and into 2016 and is not
expected to rise towards 2% target until 20189
Source: FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
Inflation Expectations: 10yr Breakeven Rate 10 yr. Treasury yields - 10 yr. TIPS yields
Market-based inflation expectations have remained relatively low10
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
U.S. Trade Gap
Slowdowns in exports are significant as they widen the trade deficit
11
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Trade-Weighted USD
The USD has substaintially appreciated on a trade-weighted basis this year
12
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
International Instability: Why We Care
■ Negative impacts of a stronger USD
■ Weaker net exports
■ Weakening global growth
■ Three largest trading partners:
o Canada
o Mexico
o China
Slowing growth is particularly concerning in Canada, Mexico, and China, who alone
account for 42% of total exports13
USD vs CAD & MXN
The CAD and the MXN have depreciated substaintially against the USD this year
14
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
China’s Contribution to World GDP
China’s contribution to World GDP has increased significantly and has now
surpassed the United States as the largest contributor to World GDP growth
Source: World Bank
15
IMF World GDP Downward Revisions
The International Monetary Fund recently revised its 2015 global growth
projection and also downgraded its projections for 2016
Source: IMF
16
Consumer Spending
Although consumer spending declined slightly in Q3, it still registered healthy
gains over that period17
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Consumer Sentiment
Consumer Sentiment has returned to pre-recession levels
18
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Residential Investment
Residential Investment has made healthy gains this year
19
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Housing Starts
Housing starts rose 6.5% last month to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of just
over 1.2 million homes 20
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Housing Market Sentiment
National Association of Home Builder’s Housing Market Index is at the highest
level since October 2005 21
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Wage Growth
Wage growth currently stands at 2.5%22
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Stock Market Prices
The stock market has witnessed a seven–year bull market as prices continue to rise23
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Mexico’s Offshore Debt Denominated in USD
If the U.S. raises rates, countries with increasing amounts of debt denominated in
USD will be most likely have to follow suit
Non-financial Foreign Denominated Debt Mexico
24
Source: The World Bank
CBOE Volitility Index: VIX
The VIX rose substaintially in August as investors were concerned about the
slowdown of China and its ripple effects in emerging markets 25
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Inflation: History
The forces leading to inflation can build up before they are apparent in the data
26
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Jeffrey Lacker’s Policy Proposal
1. Raise FFR Target Range by 25bps to 25-50bps
2. Continue with existing reinvestment policy
• Reinvesting principal payments from the Federal Reserve’s holdings of agency debt and agency MBS in agency MBS
• Roll over maturing Treasury securities into new issues at auction
27
O/N RRP Tools Have Been Effective
Federal Funds Rate firmed after effective O/N RRP testing
28
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed
Treasury Securities Maturing from SOMA
Notable increases in SOMA treasury maturities will begin in early 2016
Billion
s of
US
D
Q1
29
Source: Scotiabank Economics
Millennials: Shifting Demographics
As millennials income shrinks, a growing number of them are choosing to live at
home with their parentsii
Source: Goldman Sachs
Working Age Population: LFPR & Employment to Population Ratio
v
Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data St. Louis Fed