2012 uic fed challenge presentation
TRANSCRIPT
The State of the Economy and the Role of Monetary PolicyDaniel BotkinMichael CassidyDaniel CraigKyle KorkusKevin Murillo
Meeting AgendaHeadwinds to the Economy
European Debt Crisis
Fiscal Cliff Situation
Alternate Fiscal Scenarios
Economic Growth Summary
Current GDP Analysis
Q4-2012 and 2013 GDP Prediction
Monetary Policy Analysis
Summary and Re-evaluation of Current Policy Tools
Suggestions for New Policy Tools
Final Monetary Policy Recommendations
Headwinds Against RecoveryEuropean Sovereign Debt Crisis
Source: World Economic Outlook Report Last Updated: 10/9/12, Note: Estimates Start after 2011
2005 2007 2009 20110
5
10
15
20
25
30
Unemployment Rate, Percent
2005 2007 2009 20110
30
60
90
120
150
180Federal Debt, Percentage of GDP
– Greece – Italy – Spain – Germany
Headwinds Against RecoveryEconomic Effects: Falling off Fiscal Cliff
Tax Effects Spending Effects
Source: Congressional Budget Office; Michael Ferolli, JP Morgan ChaseLatest updated: (CBO) 8/22/12
Gross Economic Effects:• $560 billion reduction in Nominal GDP• 3.5% projected reduction in Real Gross Domestic Product
Tax Effects Spending Effects
Expiration of Bush tax cuts - $280 billion $40 billion expiration of emergency unemployment benefits
Expiration of payroll tax holiday - $125 billion
$98 billion from Budget Control Act (mandated cuts)
Affordable Care Act - $18 billion $11 billion: reduction in Medicare payments
Government Spending:Multiple Scenarios
2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-072300
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
Billi
ons
of C
hain
ed 2
005
USD
An alternative fiscal scenario’s budget will keep most spending in place
But a fall off the fiscal cliff will cut spending drastically
Source: US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisSeasonally Adjusted Annual Rates, Quarterly, Last Updated: 10/26/2012Estimations by the Congressional Budget Office, update 8/22/12
Dual-Mandate:Maximum Employment/Price Stability
1 7 13 19
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Civilian Unemployment Rate, Percent
Sources: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted, Last Updated: 11/2 and 11/15 RespectivelyNote: Core CPI is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items Less Food & Energy
2005
-01
2006
-01
2007
-01
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Core CPI, Percent Change from One Year Ago
10-Year Average
“Do whatever it takes?”The Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet Has Tripled Since 2008
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
Recession Begins
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemMillions of Dollars, Last Update 11/15/2012
Effective Federal Funds RateBetween 0-25 Basis Points Since 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
1
2
3
4
5
Perc
ent
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemNot Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Percent, Last Updated 11/13/12
What is monetary policy doing:• Keeping interest rate targets between 0-25 basis points.• Mentioning in our statements the length of time the targets
are likely warranted until• Purchasing $40 billion worth of agency MBS per month
indefinitely• Finishing our maturity extension program, selling short-term
treasury bills and buying long-term treasury bonds in an equal amount, for a total of $675 billion between September 2011 and the end of December 2012
Meeting AgendaHeadwinds to the Economy
European Debt Crisis
Fiscal Cliff Situation
Alternate Fiscal Scenarios
Economic Growth Summary
Current GDP Analysis
Q4-2012 and 2013 GDP Prediction
Monetary Policy Analysis
Summary and Re-evaluation of Current Policy Tools
Suggestions for New Policy Tools
Final Monetary Policy Recommendations
Real GDP Growth in 2012:Y=C+I+G+NX
2012-01 2012-04 2012-07-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
9000
110001.95% 1.25% 2.00%
Consumption Investment Government Spending Net Exports
(Bill
ions
of C
hain
ed 2
005
USD
)
Source: US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterly, Seasonally Adjusted; Last Updated 10/26/2012
– Annualized Growth Rate
Consumption Gains in 2012:Retail, Durable Goods, and Auto Sales Increase
2005-01
2006-01
2007-01
2008-01
2009-01
2010-01
2011-01
2012-01950
1000
1050
1100
1150
1200
1250
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
Sales: Durable GoodsLight Weight Vehicle Sales
Source: US Department of Commerce, US Census Bureau, US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisSeasonally adjusted, Monthly; Last Updated: Retail Sales-11/14/12, Durable Goods-10/29/12, Auto Sales-11/06/12
2005
-01
2006
-01
2007
-01
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Retail Sales, % Change from 1 Year Ago
Billions of Units
Millions of Units
Housing Prices:Standard and Poor’s Case-Shiller Index
2007
-01
2007
-07
2008
-01
2008
-07
2009
-01
2009
-07
2010
-01
2010
-07
2011
-01
2011
-07
2012
-01
2012
-07130.00
140.00
150.00
160.00
170.00
180.00
190.00
200.00
210.00
Source: Standard and Poor’s20-City Monthly Index, January 2000=100, Last Updated 10/31/12
Aug-2012 Index142.7
Consumers More Optimistic Than Businesses
2008
-01
2008
-07
2009
-01
2009
-07
2010
-01
2010
-07
2011
-01
2011
-07
2012
-01
2012
-07
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%Business Confidence Consumer Confidence
Perc
ent C
hang
e fr
om a
Yea
r Ago
Source: University of Michigan/Thomas Reuters, National Federation of Independent BusinessMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted; Last updated - Consumer: 11/9/12 Business: 11/13/12Consumer Confidence Index 100=1966Q1 Business Confidence Index 100=1986
Consumer Confidence Indexed by Thomas Reuters/University of MichiganSmall Business Optimism Indexed by National Federation of Independent Businesses
Investors are as Wary of Fiscal Uncertainty
2011-01 2011-04 2011-07 2011-10 2012-01 2012-04 2012-07-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Percent Change of Real Gross Domestic Private InvestmentPercent Change of Real Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisQuarterly, Seasonally AdjustedLast Updated: 10/26/2012
Production and Manufacturing:2011 Compared to 2012
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemMonthly, Seasonally AdjustedLast Updated: 11/16/2012 Note: New Orders are all Capital Goods Excluding Aircraft
2011
-01
2011
-04
2011
-07
2011
-10
2012
-01
2012
-04
2012
-07
2012
-10
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
Percent Change, Indus-trial Production Index, 3M-Moving Aver-age
Percent Change, New Orders, 3M Moving Av-erage
Underwhelming Wages and Incomes20
07-0
1
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
Average Hourly Wages, 3M Mov-ing Average
2011
-01
2011
-07
2012
-01
2012
-07
9900
10000
10100
10200
10300
10400
Real Disposable Personal Incomes
Billi
ons o
f Cha
ined
200
5 Do
llars
Source: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics; US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisSeasonally Adjusted, Monthly; Last Updated: 10/29/12 and 11/2/12
Real Net Exports:Falling Euro Area Incomes Will Likely Affect Trade Balance
2005
-01-
01
2005
-07-
01
2006
-01-
01
2006
-07-
01
2007
-01-
01
2007
-07-
01
2008
-01-
01
2008
-07-
01
2009
-01-
01
2009
-07-
01
2010
-01-
01
2010
-07-
01
2011
-01-
01
2011
-07-
01
2012
-01-
01
2012
-07-
01
-800.000
-700.000
-600.000
-500.000
-400.000
-300.000
-200.000
-100.000
0.000
Billi
ons
of C
hain
ed 2
005
Dol
lars
Source: U.S. Department off Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisSeasonally adjusted, Quarterly, Last Updated: 10/26/2012
Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate:Recession in Euro Area Could Lead to Depreciation of Euro
2011
-01
2011
-04
2011
-07
2011
-10
2012
-01
2012
-04
2012
-07
2012
-10
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
US
Dol
lars
per
1 E
uro
Source: European Central Bank Statistical Data WarehouseDaily, Not Seasonally AdjustedLast Updated: 11/16/2012
Predicted Annual GDP Growth:Q4-2012 – Q4-2013
2011-01 2011-07 2012-01 2012-07 2013-01 2013-07-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
1.00%
1.50%
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
Under current policy:We predict 1.7% annual growth
Should we fall off fiscal cliff:We predict -.5% annual growth
Source: US Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisPrediction by authors
Meeting AgendaHeadwinds to the Economy
European Debt Crisis
Fiscal Cliff Situation
Alternate Fiscal Scenarios
Economic Growth Summary
Current GDP Analysis
Q4-2012 and 2013 GDP Prediction
Monetary Policy Analysis
Summary and Re-evaluation of Current Policy Tools
Suggestions for New Policy Tools
Final Monetary Policy Recommendations
Back To The Main Question• Is short-term unemployment more of
a threat to our fulfillment of the dual-mandate than the risks of long-term inflation?•Are we, as policy-makers, past the “do
whatever it takes” stage of this recovery?
Credit Easier to Obtain:Federal Reserve Board Lending Survey
DATE
2007-04-01
2007-07-01
2007-10-01
2008-01-01
2008-04-01
2008-07-01
2008-10-01
2009-01-01
2009-04-01
2009-07-01
2009-10-01
2010-01-01
2010-04-01
2010-07-01
2010-10-01
2011-01-01
2011-04-01
2011-07-01
2011-10-01
2012-01-01
2012-04-01
2012-07-01
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Note: “Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Standards for New and Used Auto” did not become a series until Q3-2011
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemMonthly, Not Seasonally Adjusted; Last Updated: 10/31/12
Net Percentage of Domestic Respondents Tightening Standards on Consumer Loans: – Prime Mortgage Loans – Credit Cards – New and Used Auto Loans
Policy Recommendations:Taylor Rule Negative Regardless of Fiscal Cliff Resolution
2000
-01
2002
-01
2004
-01
2006
-01
2008
-01
2010
-01
2012
-01
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Fiscal Cliff Resolved: -
0.562910092Fiscal Cliff Un-
resolved: -4.280119658Pe
rcen
t
Pre-2012: Inflation Target 2%Output Gap Parameter: .5Inflation Gap Parameter: .5
2012 and Onward: Inflation Target 3%Output Gap Parameter: .67Inflation Gap Parameter: .33
Personal Consumption/SavingsRate
2005
-01
2006
-01
2007
-01
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
1%
3%
5%
7%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic AnalysisMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual RateLast Updated: 10/29/2012
– Real Consumption/Real Income – Real Savings/Real Income
Housing Market: Showing Signs of Improvement
2007
-01
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600Housing Starts
Thou
sand
s of
Uni
ts
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau, National Association of Home Builders/Wells FargoMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, Index, Monthly, Seasonally Adjusted Last Updated: 10/17/2012
2011
-10
2012
-01
2012
-04
2012
-07
2012
-1015
25
35
45
Wells Fargo Housing Market Index
Inde
x 10
0=Pe
rfec
tly O
ptim
istic
Beveridge Curve
3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.01.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Unemployment
Job
Vanc
acy
Rate Expansion
Recession '01
Recession 2007-2009
Expansion
Source: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthly, Seasonally Adjusted
Hiring, Turnover, and Quit Rates are Not Back to Pre-Recessionary Levels
2005-01
2005-07
2006-01
2006-07
2007-01
2007-07
2008-01
2008-07
2009-01
2009-07
2010-01
2010-07
2011-01
2011-07
2012-01
2012-071.0
2.0
3.0
4.0 Hiring Rate-3m moving average
Turnover Rate -3m moving av-erage
Job Openings Rate -3m mov-ing average
Quit Rate -3m moving average
Layoff Rate - 3month moving average
Perc
ent
Source: U.S. Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor StatisticsMonthly, Seasonally AdjustedLast Updated: 11/02/2012
Construction Employment:Impact of Housing Crash on Employment
2002
-01
2003
-01
2004
-01
2005
-01
2006
-01
2007
-01
2008
-01
2009
-01
2010
-01
2011
-01
2012
-01
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
7500
8000
Thou
sand
s of
Per
sons
In 4 years, Construction Employment fell from 7.720 to 5.477 millions of persons
Source: US Department of Labor: Bureau of Labor StatisticsSeasonally Adjusted, MonthlyLast Updated: 11/2/12
Forward Guidance
•To keep the Federal Funds Rate between 0 to 25 basis points through mid-2015.
7-3 Proposal
•Governor Charles Evans’ proposal to tolerate 3 percent inflation in order to target a level of 7 percent unemployment or lower.
Monetary Policy Effects:Forward Guidance Has Been Effective in Lowering Yields
2007-01 2008-01 2009-01 2010-01 2011-01 2012-012.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
30-Year Treasury Bond 48 Month Auto Loan AAA Corporate Bond30 Year Mortgage
Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemNot Seasonally Adjusted, MonthlyLatest Update: In order top left to bottom right: 11/15/12, 10/5/12, 11/13/12, 11/13/12
Proposal: Qualitative Easing
• Sell $40 billion worth of short-term treasury bonds to fund $40 billion dollars a month purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities• Target housing market and long-term
interest rates and will not add to the monetary base
Meeting AgendaHeadwinds to the Economy
European Debt Crisis
Fiscal Cliff Situation
Alternate Fiscal Scenarios
Economic Growth Summary
Current GDP Analysis
Q4-2012 and 2013 GDP Prediction
Monetary Policy Analysis
Summary and Re-evaluation of Current Policy Tools
Suggestions for New Policy Tools
Final Monetary Policy Recommendations
Policy Recommendations
•New Qualitative Easing: Purchase 40 billion dollars of agency mortgaged backed securities a months funded by the sale of 40 billion dollars worth of short term treasuries.•Keep our Federal Funds rate target at 0-25
basis points until mid-2015.