AEI’S CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT

UPDATE AND ASSESSMENT

April 14, 2015

TOP THREE TAKEAWAYS

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1. Iranian officials demanded immediate sanctions relief and rejected the P5+1’s proposal for IAEA-led military site inspections as part of the nuclear framework agreement, which Supreme Leader Khamenei has neither supported nor opposed.

2. Al Houthis lost ground in Aden and Abyan but expanded into Shabwah where they seized the governorate’s capital.3. The Kenyan government continues to target al Shabaab militants both in Kenya and Somalia following the April 2 Garissa

University attack.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalThe Saudi-led Operation Decisive Storm continued to lose popular support among the Yemeni people as civilian casualties

mounted from April 4-10. Separately, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry stated that the U.S. is aware of Iranian support for the

al Houthis in Yemen. Iran has continued to call for an end to Saudi-airstrikes in Yemen and for all parties to return to dialogue.

Outlook: Operation Decisive Storm will continue to lose support as civilian casualties mount. Saudi Arabia will feel pressed to

find a solution to the Yemen crisis before ending its airstrikes.

SecurityAnti-al Houthi militias appeared to make progress against the al Houthis in Aden and Abyan governorates. Anti-al Houthi forces

reportedly pushed the al Houthis out of al Mukalla and Dar Saad, Aden, on April 8. Anti-al Houthi forces in Abyan reportedly

retook Lawder city from al Houthi control on April 5 and Shaqra city on April 8. Al Houthi control expanded in Shabwah

governorate, as al Houthi forces seized Ataq city on April 8. Separately, local tribesmen in Ibb and Taiz began launching attacks

on al Houthi sites within the governorates.

Outlook: Operation Decisive Storm has impeded but failed to halt al Houthi southward and eastward expansion. The al Houthis

seem to be suffering losses in Abyan but have captured territory in Shabwah. Local resistance movements may inhibit the

ability of the al Houthis to control the territory they currently occupy.

Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)Ansar al Sharia seized military bases in al Abr, Hadramawt, on April 7 and remain in partial control of the capital of Hadramawt,

al Mukalla, which they reportedly plan to defend from al Houthi expansion. Suspected Ansar al Sharia militants carried out an

SVBIED attack targeting al Houthis in Bayhan, Shabwah on April 10.

Outlook: Ansar al Sharia will continue to consolidate territory in eastern Yemen and are depicting themselves as an alternative

to al Houthi expansion in Yemen.

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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YEMENGULF OF ADEN

1) 04 -10 APR: Al Houthi militants battled anti-al Houthi militias for control of Aden city, Aden.2) 04 - 09 APR: Ansar al Sharia attacked military bases in Hadramawt.3) 09 APR: Al Houthi militants and allied military units seized Ataq city, Shabwah.4) 10 APR: Ansar al Sharia militants conducted SVBIED attack targeting al Houthis in Bayhan, Shabwah.

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalFollowing the April 2 Garissa University attack, opposition leaders in Kenya called for the Kenyan Defense Forces to withdraw from Somalia in order to prevent further attacks. Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, however, called for Kenya to continue to fight against al Shabaab and for Kenyan Muslims to help root out al Shabaab members and sympathizers from their communities. To this end, the Kenyan Minister for Foreign Affairs called for Kenya’s U.S. and European partners to increase their support for Kenya in the fight against al Shabaab.

Outlook: Kenya will continue to combat al Shabaab in Kenya and Somalia. Discontent with the current policies could grow if the situation does not improve.

Security Kenya continued to target al Shabaab in Somalia when it conducted airstrikes in Gedo region on April 6. Kenyan officials

claimed that the strikes were effective, while al Shabaab claimed that the strikes did not target bases but rather farmland.

Following the April 2 Garissa University attack, Uganda arrested a number of suspected terrorists. One of the suspects arrested

was an ex-Gauntanamo detainee.

Outlook: The Kenyan airstrikes signify Kenya’s continued participation in the fight against al Shabaab in Somalia. Uganda’s

arrests signal that it is concerned about possible al Shabaab attacks in the country.

Al ShabaabAl Shabaab released a video on April 4 calling the Garissa University attack retaliation for Kenyan troops in Somalia. In the video al Shabaab said that they had repeatedly warned Kenya of the consequences of its actions and warned of future attacks if the policies do not change. The Somali Federal Government also placed bounties on 11 al Shabaab members, including the group’s leader Ahmad Umar and the reported planner of the Garissa University attack, Mohamed Mohamud.

Outlook: Al Shabaab’s likely objective of the Garissa University attack was to convince Kenya to withdraw from Somalia. Al Shabaab will likely attempt further attacks in Kenya to achieve this goal.

HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

1) 06 APR: Kenyan airstrikes targeted al Shabaab bases in Gedo region.2) 07 APR: Police arrested terror suspects in Wakisodistrict and Kampala, Uganda.3) 07 APR: Suspected al Shabaab IED attack in Galkayo, Mudugregion.4) 09 APR: Police arrested terror suspects in Kasese, Kasese district, Uganda.

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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HORN OF AFRICAGULF OF ADEN

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ASSESSMENT:

PoliticalAbdullah al Thinni directed the National Oil Company to deposit its revenue into the Tobruk government’s UAE bank account

rather than the politically neutral Central Bank of Libya. Neither the National Oil Company nor the Central Bank of Libya has

responded to this order. Additionally al Thinni successfully lobbied the Egyptian and Kuwaiti governments to cease

rebroadcasting al Nabaa TV, the primary television station for Libya Dawn. This has effectively shut down the channel.

Outlook: The neutrality of the Central Bank, and therefore the oil profits, is one of the few stabilizing forces in Libya today.

Should one side gain control of this money, they would not only have access to the funds, but also the massive attached

patronage networks.

SecurityLibyan National Army (LNA) forces have made gains throughout the country, clearing key districts in Benghazi and expanding

their presence around Tripoli. Additionally, key LNA and al Saiqa leaders have claimed that Benghazi will be completely secured

in the near future.

Outlook: It is highly unlikely that fighting in Benghazi will cease in the foreseeable future, but by clearing Buhadema it is judged

that the LNA currently has the upper hand. The future of the Tripoli operation remains unclear.

Ansar al Sharia Libya and ISIS in LibyaAnsar al Sharia in Libya published a video entitled “The Chargers of Dawn” showing military activities near Benina Airport in

Benghazi. Included in the video was a short speech from Abu Abdullah al Libi, the cleric who was rumored to have defected to

ISIS. This calls into question the validity of those rumors. Additionally, Ansar al Sharia published several picture sets over the

course of the week, increasing their social media presence significantly.

Outlook: The expansion of Ansar al Sharia’s media presence indicates a desire to raise the profile of the organization, which

primarily works within coalitions and alliances in major cities. This coalition strategy was likely designed to minimize risk during

a period in which the organization was vulnerable and therefore the expansion could represent perceived organizational

strength.

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

ASSESSMENT:

AQIMAbdelmalek Droukdel, AQIM’s emir, congratulated Jabhat al Nusra and Jaish al Fatah for their recent gains in Syria in an audio recording. The recording is the emir’s first statement since 2012.

Outlook: The resurfacing of Abdelmalek Droukdel is likely to renew support for AQIM in the Maghreb region.

Ansar al Sharia (Tunisia)Militant attacks continue to target Tunisian security forces in Tunisia’s Kasserine region. Unknown militants attacked a Tunisian military patrol leaving five soldiers dead and nine others wounded in the Kasserine governorate near the Algerian border. Tunisian security forces arrested 13 men suspected of being behind this ambush, but the search for the remaining militants is ongoing. No militant organizations has claimed responsibility for the attack.

Outlook: Although Tunisia has increased its counter-terrorism operations since the Bardo Museum Attack, militant activity targeting Tunisian security forces will likely increase. Tunisian security forces will continue their anti-terror sweeps particularly near the borders.

Associated Movements in the Sahel (Ansar al Din, al Murabitoun)Five unidentified gunmen kidnapped a Romanian security officer in Tambao, Burkina Faso, close to the Malian border. The gunmen headed toward Mali after the kidnapping, and so far no group has claimed responsibility for the incident. Burkinabe authorities are currently hunting for the kidnappers in Mali with the help of French and U.S. troops. Separately, unknown assailants shelled the northern Malian town of Gao, killing one civilian and wounding three others. A landmine also detonatedbeneath a MINUSMA convoy in Kidal, northern Mali, wounding two peacekeepers. Unidentified gunmen attacked the town of Boni, in central Mali, leaving two civilians dead.

Outlook: Recent attacks against civilians and peacekeeping forces coupled with the kidnapping of a Romanian represent a disturbing trend in increased militant activity. Islamist militant groups like MUJAO are likely to stage more attacks and will continue to benefit from Mali’s instability.

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MAGHREB AND SAHELWEST AFRICA

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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LIBYAWEST AFRICA

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1) 05 APR: ISIS detonated an SVBIED on a Libya Dawn checkpoint in Misrata, killing 6 and wounding 21. 2) 07 APR: LNA forces clashed with Libya Dawn southwest of Tripoli. LNA forces are reportedly close to securing the district.3) 08 APR: LNA forces launched a complex attack on the Mujahedeen ShuraCouncil of Derna.4) 09-10 APR: LNA forces have made significant progress towardsclearing Benghazi.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA

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NORTH AFRICAWEST AFRICA

1) 07 APR: A militant ambush on a military patrol left five soldiers dead and nine others wounded in Kasserine. Tunisian forces arrested 13 suspects. 2) 09 APR: Algerian security forces killed four members of the Soldiers of the Caliphate in Boumerdes. 3) 10 APR: Tunisian security forces arrested the leader of a Uqba ibn Nafaa cell that was plotting explosions in the capital.

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SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:

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1) 04 APR: Unidentified gunmen kidnapped a Romanian security officer in Tambao, Burkina Faso, and then fled towards the Malian border.2) 05 APR: Unknown militants shelled the town of Gao. 3) 06 APR: An IED exploded underneath a MINUSMA convoy near Kidal.4) 06 APR: French special forces conducted a raid against AQIM in Tessalit and freed a Dutch hostage.

WEST AFRICA

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SAHEL

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ASSESSMENT:

Regional Developments

Senior Iranian officials continued to criticize the Saudi-led airstrikes in Yemen. The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

escalated Tehran’s rhetoric against Riyadh, calling the Arab coalition’s military campaign an act of genocide. Khamenei said that

the lack of composure and strategic depth displayed by the Saudis is due to the “inexperienced youngsters” appointed to

positions of power. Khamenei explicitly warned Riyadh of the consequences it will face, stating that “it will certainly take losses

and will not emerge victorious at all.” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, meanwhile, met with Pakistani Prime Minister

Nawaz Sharif to stress the need for political dialogue in resolving the crisis in Yemen.

Outlook: Iran will continue to promote inclusive dialogue in Yemen, while highlighting the strategic and political costs

associated with a prolonged conflict, as part of Tehran’s diplomatic strategy to undermine the Saudi-led coalition.

Nuclear Talks

Numerous senior regime officials and IRGC personnel solidly endorsed the P5+1-Tehran nuclear framework agreement last

week. Commander of the IRGC Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari expressed his support for the agreement, while Parliament

Speaker Ali Larijani hailed it as a “promising” track to “economic prosperity.” Officials such as AFGS Headquarters Chief Major

General Hassan Firouzabadi and Judiciary Head Ayatollah Sadegh Amoli Larijani also praised the Iranian negotiating team.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, however, expressed general ambivalence about the framework agreement, citing the

fact that the two sides have not yet reached a final deal. Khamenei and President Hassan Rouhani were among the regime

officials who reiterated the Supreme Leader’s longstanding redline of immediate – rather than phased – relief from all sanctions

in the event of a final nuclear deal.

Outlook: Regime officials will continue to demand immediate sanctions relief as part of a final nuclear deal as negotiations

continue with the P5+1.

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IRAN

SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY:IRAN

1305 APR – 09 APR 2015

APR 5: President Hassan Rouhani reiterated that sanctions must be removed, not suspended, in the event of

a final P5+1 nuclear deal.

APR 6: Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani lent his support for the nuclear framework agreement.

APR 7: IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari expressed support for the framework agreement

and praised the negotiating team.

APR 7: President Hassan Rouhani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signed eight agreements;

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met with Erdogan.

APR 7: Pakistan-based militants killed eight border guards in Sistan va Baluchistan province.

APR 8: The Artesh Navy announced that the 34th Fleet departed for the Gulf of Aden and the Bab el Mandeb

Strait for a three-month deployment.

APR 8: Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian met with China’s special envoy to the Middle East

Gong Xiaosheng to discuss the crises in Yemen.

APR 8: Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan rejected reports claiming the nuclear framework

agreement will permit inspections of sensitive military sites.

APR 9: Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei stated that he is “neither for, nor against” the framework

agreement, and reiterated his prerequisites for a final deal.

APR 9: President Hassan Rouhani reinforced immediate removal of sanctions as the Supreme Leader’s

bottom line for a final nuclear deal.

APR 9: Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh met with the Chinese Energy Minister in Beijing to discuss energy

cooperation.

APR 9: Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz

Sharif, and discussed the crises in Yemen.

ACRONYMS

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Atomic Energy Agency of Iran (AEOI)

African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM)

al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)

al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS)

Ansar al Sharia Tunisia (AAS-T)

Asa’ib Ahl al Haq (AAH)

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC)

Islamic State (IS)

Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH)

Libyan National Army (LNA)

Lebanese Hezbollah (LH)

United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA)

National Movement for the Liberation of the Azawad (MNLA)

The Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO)

North Waziristan (NWA)

Pakistani Military (PakMil)

Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)

Supreme Council for National Security (SCNS)

Somalia National Army (SNA)

South Waziristan (SWA)

Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP)

CRITICAL THREATS PROJECT ANALYSTS

Katherine Zimmermansenior al Qaeda analystkatherine.zimmerman@aei.org(202) 888-6576

Alexis Knutsenal Qaeda analystalexis.knutsen@aei.org(202) 888-6570

Marie DonovanIran analystmarie.donovan@aei.org(202) 888-6572

Mehrdad MoarefianIran analystmehrdad.moarefian@aei.org(202) 888-6574

For more information about AEI’s Critical Threats Project,visit www.criticalthreats.org.

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