2014 triangle ccim market forecast
DESCRIPTION
2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast. March 19, 2014 | Raleigh, North Carolina. Outstanding U.S. CRE Debt. Total Commercial and Multifamily = $2.59+ Trillion Banks= $889 Billion (35.1%) CMBS/REMIC’s= $584 Billion (22.7%) GSE’s= $396 Billion (15.8%) - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
March 19, 2014 | Raleigh, North Carolina2014 Triangle CCIM Market Forecast
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
Outstanding U.S. CRE DebtTotal Commercial and Multifamily = $2.59+ Trillion Banks = $889 Billion (35.1%)
CMBS/REMIC’s = $584 Billion (22.7%)
GSE’s = $396 Billion (15.8%)
Insurance Cos. = $337 Billion (13.5%)
Other = $384 Billion (12.9%)
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
CMBS Maturities CMBS maturities 2015 – 2017 = $350+ Billion CMBS multifamily maturities next 5 years
= $75 Billion
= 9,600 + loans
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
2013 Lending Volume& 2014 Projections
2013 LENDING VOLUME
CMBS $87 Billion
Insurance Companies$58 Billion
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac $28.7 / $25.9 Billion
FHA$23.89 Billion
2014 VOLUME PROJECTIONS
CMBS$110 Billion to Whatever?
Insurance Companies $62 Billion
Fannie Mae / Freddie Mac$28.7 / $25.9 Billion
FHA$16 to $17 Billion
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
Property Types Multifamily – most liquid, I/O everywhere, local softness,
national strength Retail – anchored, focused on occupancy costs and
rollover rents\ Office – rollover, costs, rents, appear to be through the
trough Hospitality – get it while it’s hot Warehouse/Industrial, self-storage, single tenant
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
Capital Markets Update
Rates: 10-Year UST – 1.60%
Spreads 200bps+ for Life Companies, 300bps+ for CMBS
Overall, 3.50% - 5.00%
One Year ago: Rates: 10-Year UST –
2.68% Spreads 125bps –
200bps for Life Companies, 200bps – 250bps for CMBS
Overall, 4.00% - 5.00%
Today:
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
Capital Markets Update Proceeds: Investor appetite for CRE assets is robust Amortization: I/O for the asking LTV: Stated max of 75%, Mezzanine available to 85% Rate-lock: Life companies, up to one year forward;
CMBS, remains a trade Prepayment: Life companies, YM but willing to deal;
CMBS, Defeasance to maturity
Loans are subject to credit approval
Connecting ideas, capital and clients.
BB&T Real Estate Funding Balance sheet financing, exclusively through
Grandbridge Fixed-rate, non-recourse, life company style All property types, excluding hospitality at this time Terms: 7 – 10 years Amortization: 30 years; I/O available Prepayment: Yield Maintenance for half the term only;
0.50% penalty thereafter