2014 texas trends ® hotel industry report austin hotel & lodging association october 1, 2014

2014 Texas Trends® Hotel Industry Report Austin Hotel & Lodging Association

October 1, 2014

I. The Economy

II. Lodging Forecasts – U.S.

III. Lodging Forecasts - Texas

IV. Austin Submarkets

V. Hotel Market Cycle

I. The Economy

II. Lodging Forecasts – U.S.

III. Lodging Forecasts - Texas



Presentation Outline

Source: Moody’s Analytics, July 2014

United States: Economic Outlook

Employment Personal Income

GDP CPI (Inflation)

2013 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 1.5%

2014 1.8% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9%

2015 2.3% 4.3% 3.7% 2.2%

2016 2.4% 4.7% 3.3% 2.5%

2017 1.6% 3.5% 2.9% 2.9%

2018 0.6% 2.2% 2.2% 2.8%

Source: Moody’s Analytics, July 2014

Austin: Economic Outlook

Employment Personal Income

GMP CPI (Inflation)

2013 4.6% 2.9% 5.5% 1.6%

2014 3.5% 4.0% 5.2% 2.2%

2015 4.2% 6.8% 5.4% 2.4%

2016 4.1% 6.4% 4.9% 2.7%

2017 3.6% 5.1% 4.2% 3.0%

2018 2.6% 4.0% 3.5% 2.9%

June 2014

Source: Texas Work Force Commission

United States 7.5% 6.3%

Texas 6.9% 5.5%

Austin 5.7% 4.4%

Dallas/Fort Worth 6.7% 5.4%

Houston 6.7% 5.4%

San Antonio 6.6% 5.1%

June 2013

* Not seasonally adjusted

Unemployment Comparison*

What Could Derail the Economy?

• Unpredictable World Event

• Price of Oil & Gas

• International Crises

I. The Economy

II. Lodging Forecast – U.S.

III. Lodging Forecast - Texas



I. The Economy






Hotel Horizons®

• Econometric Forecasting Model− Smith Travel Research – historical lodging data,

pipeline data

− Moody’s Economy.com – economic forecasts

• Five-Year Forecasts of Supply, Demand, Occupancy, ADR, RevPAR− 55 Major U.S. Markets

• Updated Quarterly

= Below/Above Long Run Average

Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 1.9% 1.7% 0.5% 0.4% 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.7% 2.1% 2.4%

Demand 1.9% 7.2% 4.7% 2.8% 2.2% 4.5% 2.2% 1.6% 1.1% 0.4%

Occupancy 61.9% 57.5% 59.9% 61.3% 62.2% 64.4% 65.0% 64.9% 64.3% 63.0%

ADR 3.0% 0.0% 3.8% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.4% 4.1%

RevPAR 3.0% 5.4% 8.1% 6.6% 5.4% 8.2% 6.7% 5.8% 4.3% 2.1%

United States: 2nd Quarter 2014

Source: PKF Hospitality Research – Hotel Horizons® Report, Smith Travel Research

• Six consecutive years of increasing occupancy, the longest since 1988.

• An occupancy level of 65%, the highest level of occupancy ever recorded by STR, Inc.

• 14 of the 55 markets in the Hotel Horizons® universe will achieve their highest occupancy levels in the past 25 years.

• 49 of 55 markets are above their long run average occupancy level.

2015 US Hotel Industry Achievements

Austin

New Yo

rkMiam

i

Houston

Nashvil

le

Columbus

San Jo

se-Sa

nta Cru

z

Charlest

on

New O

rlean

s

Denve

r

Baltimore

Anaheim

Seatt

le

San Dieg

o

Orlando

Portlan

d

Jackso

nville

Los A

ngeles

Saint L

ouis

Albuquerque

Hartford

Phoenix

Tampa

Newark

San Fr

ancis

co

Norfolk-

VA Beach

Sacra

mento

Long I

sland

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

2015 2009

United States

48,000 New Rooms in 2014



Source: PKF-HR Hotel Horizons® September-November 2014 Edition, STR, Inc..

Net Supply Change 2009 vs. 2015

I. The Economy


III. Lodging Forecast – Texas



I. The Economy






Texas Summary

54.6%

56.5%

60.4%

63.4%

66.0%

68.0%

68.5%

Occupancy

$91.79 $89.72 $92.06 $94.38$99.63

$105.00$110.00

$50.09 $50.70$55.60

$59.81$65.76

$71.36$75.50ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

237,491

247,971

251,917

254,933

257,555

261,111

267,248

Supply

Dallas: 2nd Quarter 2014



Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 2.5% 2.7% 0.8% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% 1.7% 1.9% 2.8% 3.4%

Demand 3.4% 9.5% 9.1% 4.8% 5.7% 5.4% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.5%

Occupancy 60.7% 54.5% 59.0% 61.0% 64.2% 67.3% 68.3% 69.2% 69.2% 68.6%

ADR 2.1% -2.6% 3.4% 1.1% 5.1% 5.0% 6.5% 5.4% 4.0% 3.2%

RevPAR 3.1% 3.9% 11.9% 4.4% 10.7% 10.0% 8.2% 6.8% 4.1% 2.3%

Fort Worth: 2nd Quarter 2014



Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 3.1% 3.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.5% 1.5% 0.3% 2.1% 3.8% 4.4%

Demand 3.5% 7.7% 7.1% 3.0% 3.9% 3.7% 3.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7%

Occupancy 60.9% 56.1% 59.3% 60.3% 62.3% 63.7% 65.5% 66.0% 65.3% 64.3%

ADR 3.2% -0.9% 1.1% -1.4% 1.5% 4.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.3%

RevPAR 3.8% 2.8% 6.9% 0.3% 4.9% 6.6% 7.5% 4.5% 2.8% 1.6%

Houston: 2nd Quarter 2014



Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 2.5% 6.1% 1.8% 0.9% 0.6% 1.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 1.8%

Demand 3.9% 5.4% 10.6% 10.4% 6.2% 4.1% 2.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.1%

Occupancy 61.8% 55.0% 59.7% 65.4% 69.1% 70.8% 70.3% 69.8% 69.1% 68.6%

ADR 3.0% -4.0% 2.6% 3.7% 7.8% 7.0% 4.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.9%

RevPAR 4.6% -4.6% 11.5% 13.6% 13.8% 9.7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.6% 1.1%


San Antonio: 2nd Quarter 2014


Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 3.4% 8.5% 2.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.2% 2.4% 3.3%

Demand 3.6% 12.4% 7.1% 5.5% -0.1% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0%

Occupancy 65.0% 58.2% 60.8% 63.2% 62.8% 63.8% 64.8% 65.8% 65.9% 65.7%

ADR 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 4.8% 1.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.0% 3.0%

RevPAR 3.4% 4.0% 4.6% 5.2% 4.2% 3.5% 5.6% 5.0% 3.2% 2.7%

.

Austin – Supply / Demand Analysis

• 2009 - Supply Up / Demand Down

- Huge Occupancy & Rate Loss• Current - Supply Down / Demand Up - Occ Above Average / Turnaway Up

- Artificially High Rates• 2015 to 2017 - Supply Up / Demand Up/Slowing

- Turnaway & Compression Down

- Occupancies Normalize

- Rates Normalize

Austin – Local Demand Factors

• Continued IT Expansion- Apple – 3,600 jobs

- Flextronics – 900 jobs

- Spansion – $200 million upgrade

- Ambiq Micro, Illuminix, Dropbox, Websense, Roku, Marvell Semiconductor

• Residential Housing Boom

• UT Expansions

• Sports Activity

• Circuit of the Americas

• Festivals / Events- SXSW

- Austin City Limits

- Many Others

• Convention Activity- JW Marriott (2015)

- Increased Bookings

• Hotel Additions – Labor

• Reduced Compression

• Legislature (2015 & 2017)

• Per Diem Rate Up $6 to $126

Austin: 2nd Quarter 2014



Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 3.3% 4.8% 2.4% 0.7% 2.8% 2.4% 6.0% 3.1% 2.1% 2.4%

Demand 4.3% 10.3% 6.8% 3.1% 7.7% 3.4% 5.3% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0%

Occupancy 66.2% 63.7% 66.5% 68.0% 71.3% 72.0% 71.5% 70.8% 70.3% 69.4%

ADR 4.0% -2.6% 5.9% 7.9% 5.5% 6.9% 4.7% 1.7% 1.6% 2.0%

RevPAR 5.3% 2.6% 10.5% 10.4% 10.5% 7.9% 4.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.6%


Austin: Upper-Priced


Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 4.2% 4.5% 2.9% 0.2% 2.1% 2.6% 11.8% 4.2% 2.3% 2.1%

Demand 5.5% 10.5% 7.0% 2.6% 5.2% 3.3% 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0%

Occupancy 70.1% 69.9% 72.7% 74.4% 76.7% 77.2% 74.5% 73.0% 72.8% 72.0%

ADR 4.2% -1.1% 6.3% 8.3% 6.5% 7.0% 3.3% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0%

RevPAR 5.6% 4.5% 10.6% 10.8% 9.7% 7.7% -0.3% -1.1% 0.7% 0.9%


Austin: Lower-Priced


Long Term

Average 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F

Supply 2.7% 5.0% 2.0% 1.1% 3.3% 2.3% 1.6% 2.2% 1.9% 2.7%

Demand 3.6% 10.1% 6.6% 3.5% 9.8% 3.6% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0%

Occupancy 63.8% 59.1% 61.8% 63.3% 67.3% 68.1% 69.0% 69.0% 68.3% 67.2%

ADR 3.3% -5.2% 5.1% 7.6% 5.9% 6.7% 4.9% 3.0% 2.0% 2.0%

RevPAR 4.5% -0.5% 9.9% 10.2% 12.7% 8.1% 6.3% 2.8% 1.1% 0.4%

I. The Economy





I. The Economy






Austin Summary

60.5%63.7%

66.4% 68.0%71.3% 72.0% 71.5%

Occupancy

$101.99 $99.38$105.24

$113.54$119.58

$128.00$134.00

$61.72 $63.31$69.93

$77.23$85.24

$92.07 $94.72

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

27,41228,714

29,392 29,60230,773

31,462 33,468

Supply

Austin CBD

69.2%

74.5%77.0% 77.8% 78.4% 77.0%

74.0%

Occupancy

$147.54 $146.18$158.56

$173.57$188.53

$205.00 $200.00

$102.10$108.90

$122.09$135.04

$147.81$157.85

$148.00

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

6,021 6,038 6,266 6,3196,667 6,726

8,490

Supply

North Austin

53.8%57.2% 59.4%

62.6%67.6% 69.0% 68.0%Occupancy

$72.39$68.95

$73.77$77.21 $79.63

$85.00 $88.00

$38.95 $39.44$43.82

$48.33$53.83

$58.65 $59.84

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

6,5316,812 6,806 6,823 6,821

7,019 7,089

Supply

Round Rock / Georgetown

57.7% 58.8% 57.9% 58.4%64.7%

68.5% 70.0%Occupancy

$77.85 $75.75 $78.32$83.04 $83.98

$90.00$95.00

$44.92 $44.54 $45.35$48.50

$54.34$61.65

$66.50

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

2,931 3,0263,301 3,419 3,504 3,504 3,504

Supply

Northwest Austin

65.7%68.5%

72.0% 73.6%77.6% 76.0% 77.0%Occupancy

$88.94 $87.11 $90.04$97.53

$103.45

$115.00$120.00

$58.43 $59.67$64.83

$71.78$80.28

$87.40$92.40

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

4,180

4,791 4,921 4,930 5,1525,520 5,520

Supply

South Austin / San Marcos

57.7%60.1%

64.3%65.6%

67.6% 69.5% 69.0%Occupancy

$99.96 $97.37 $100.50$109.62

$114.28$120.00 $122.00

$57.68 $58.52$64.62

$71.91$77.25

$83.40 $84.18

ADR

RevPAR

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014F 2015F

7,7498,047 8,098 8,111

8,629 8,693 8,865

Supply

I. The Economy





I. The Economy






Rapid Development

Occupancy Declines, ADR Follows

Development at Minimum

Levels

Lodging Decline, Leads Other Sectors

Occupancy Recovers

ADR and Margins Recover

Development Picks Up

Development Slows

Lodging Recovers, Lags Other Sectors (Not this

Time!)

Long RunOccupancy

Accelerated Development ?

Equilibrium ADR

We are Here

2014

2015

A Year Ago

In the Sweet Spot

2016/2017

Hotel Market Cycle

For a Copy of This PresentationPlease Visit

www.pkfc.com/presentations or

Contact: Randy McCaslinEmail: [email protected]

713.621.5252 Ext. 21

2014 texas trends ® hotel industry report austin hotel & lodging association october 1, 2014

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