Statistical Analysis of Kim & Sotnikova 2014We often find it difficult to prove factual truth in day-to-day life despite sensing them. It is the case this time as well. It is difficult.

In fact, I pointed out after the announcement of the judging panel (before the team event) that the Ukrainian judge had caused serious problems in the past. The thing is, it was not something that could be pre-emptively investigated even if there were hunches and suspicions. Thats why I declined to comment before the competition when a daily newspaper asked for one. There are more to lose than to gain if something makes into the mass-media on a hunch before the results of the judging become available. France ended up not being able to protect the bronze medal after making the allegations of collusion between the USA and Russia in Ice Dance public. The journalist who contacted me might have been disappointed that I did not respond (given I gave an interview for another media) but I was worried about this particular dynamics.The Judging Panel: Slovakia-Russia-Ukraine-Estonia Line-up Blue: Short Program + Free Skate Green: Free Skate only Orange: Short Program onlyNameNationalityJudging career 1Judging career 2

Karen HOWARDCanada2011 Four Continents

Birgit FOELLGermany2009 Nebelhorn

Franco BENINIItaly2013 Universiade

Nobuhiko YOSHIOKAJapan2013 Worlds (Men)

Adriana DOMANSKA Slovakia2013 Junior GP

Zanna KULIKEstonia2012 Junior GP2012 Junior Worlds

Helene CUCUPHATFrance2014 Europeans

Alla SHEKHOVTSEVARussia2014 Europeans

Yury BALKOVUkraine2002 Olympics Substitute JudgeUsually the Judge for Ice Dance

Diana STEVENSBritain2013 Europeans (Pairs)

Sung-Hee KOHKorea2012 Worlds2013 Four Continents

Katarina HENRIKSSONSweden2010 Worlds2006 Olympics

Robert ROSENBLUTH USA2013 Four Continents2013 GP Final

Key Points In the Free Skate, it is evident that four judges scores were extremely high for Sotnikova while four scores for Kim were extremely low In the Short Program, two judges were extremely harsh on Kim for marking to a shocking extent. It is also possible to reasonably guess their nationalities too.

AnalysisYuna KimFactorsJ1J2J3J4J5J6J7J8J9

GOE 0.712714101013101010

GOE 0.5109137101311109

GOE Total13.40 9.40 16.30 10.50 12.00 15.60 12.50 12.00 11.50

Base57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49 57.49

TES70.89 66.89 73.79 67.99 69.49 73.09 69.99 69.49 68.99

SS9.00 8.50 9.50 9.00 9.50 9.25 9.25 9.00 9.75

TR8.75 7.75 9.50 8.75 9.25 9.00 9.00 8.75 9.25

PE8.25 8.75 9.75 9.25 9.25 10.00 9.50 9.50 9.50

CH9.50 8.25 10.00 9.00 9.50 9.50 9.25 9.25 9.75

IN9.25 8.75 10.00 9.25 9.50 10.00 9.75 9.50 9.75

PCS71.60 67.20 78.00 72.40 75.20 76.40 74.80 73.60 76.80

Total142.49 134.09 151.79 140.39 144.69 149.49 144.79 143.09 145.79

*GOE 0.7 is the net positive number of Grades of execution (GOE) on elements with GOE factor of 0.7 while GOE 0.5 is the corresponding number for elements with 0.5 factor. GOE Total is the total GOE provided.Four judges scores coloured are extremely low, and when you look at the Program component score (PCS) distribution: Olympic PCS109.759.59.2598.758.58.25Actual PCS7.75

SS122319.21

TR12238.96 1

PE1132119.43

CH1132119.39

IN222219.57

Total74.50

With one exception of PE mark for the judge 5 who gave a lower mark than the judge 8, the four judges highlighted above gave the lowest PCS marks in all five components.

Adelina SotnikovaFactorsJ1J2J3J4J5J6J7J8J9

GOE 0.71218712161618812

GOE 0.597810109987

GOE Total12.90 16.10 8.90 13.40 16.20 15.70 17.10 9.60 11.90

Base61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43 61.43

TES74.33 77.53 70.33 74.83 77.63 77.13 78.53 71.03 73.33

SS9.50 9.50 9.25 8.75 9.50 9.00 9.50 8.75 8.50

TR9.25 9.25 8.75 8.50 9.25 9.00 9.50 8.75 8.50

PE9.75 9.50 9.25 9.00 9.75 9.50 9.75 9.00 9.25

CH9.75 9.75 9.25 8.75 9.50 9.75 9.75 9.00 9.50

IN9.75 9.75 9.00 9.25 9.75 9.25 9.75 8.75 9.25

PCS76.80 76.40 72.80 70.80 76.40 74.40 77.20 70.80 72.00

Total151.13 153.93 143.13 145.63 154.03 151.53 155.73 141.83 145.33

In Free Skate marks for Sotnikova, four judges gave significantly high marks compared to others. It is difficult to pinpoint anyone other than the Judge 4 that gave noticeably marks in each component.Olympic PCS9.759.59.2598.758.58.258PCS

SS411219.18

TR131228.96

PE32229.43

CH421119.50

IN43119.43

Total74.41

Four judges gave highest marks in each of five component scores. Two of the judges in the Olympics panel (Russia, France) served as judges at the 2014 European Championships. Sotnikovas Free Skate PCS distribution there was:Euros PCS9.759.59.2598.758.58.258PCS

SS14318.64

TR115118.50

PE115118.75

CH223118.86

IN1321118.75

69.60

In that competition, Sotnikova had some technical errors (wrong-edge take off on triple lutz, under-rotated triple loop) but had no particular cause for deductions in marking PCS. Even when you apply the highest marks (Judge 6) from the European Championships the PCS is 73.60. An astounding number of five judges (translators note: out of nine) gave higher PCS than that at the Olympics.Overall comparisonRanking tableYuna KimAdelina Sotnikova

1 134.09 141.83

2 140.39 143.13

3 142.49145.33

4 143.09 145.63

5 144.69 151.13

6 144.79 151.53

7 145.79 153.93

8 149.49 154.03

9 151.79 155.73

Exclusion of biased 4147.31 145.41

When you arrange the Free Skate scores for each judge in ascending order and exclude four allegedly biased judges, Kim ends up with the higher score. I would like to clarify this point because some people misinterpreted this table; the allegedly biased four are judges 1-4 on Kims column as they gave low scores for her and judges 6-9 on Sotnikovas column as they gave her high scores. It is impossible to determine what marks the individual judges gave to Kim or Sotnikova due to the anonymity of the judges.The summary of Sotnikovas International competition marks this season (2013-2014)CompetitionDatePl. TSSTESPCSDed.Errors

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COC2013-11-01Short166.03 35.86 30.17 03Lz-3Lo