2012 year end report
DESCRIPTION
2012 Real Estate Resulats and a look forwardTRANSCRIPT
Annual Real Estate Report 2012*
*Hint- It’s the best news in 5 years
Review In 2012 we saw the real estate recovery gaining momentum in the country and locally. Now that sales and prices are rising again, we can look back and see the bottom was in mid to late 2010. 2011 was inconsistent at best with a few months of increases followed by a few months of decreases. In 2012 we finally had 6 straight months of increasing prices for the first time since 2007. The recovery is encompassing more areas nationally which bodes well for price and sales recovery in the Carolinas as we continue to be in-migration states. Local recovery will continue to be stronger in the radius of 20-25 miles from Charlotte due to gas prices and the Charlotte job engine.
The Allen Tate Company continues to lead the way in the Charlotte Region and the Carolinas. In the Charlotte Region we have closed more than 1/3 of all home sales year to date and our closed sales increase is 10% higher than our competition average. The Balatow Team has experienced a 31% closed sales increase largely due to an 89% increase in our inventory of houses listed for sale. Our company and our team are out- performing the market and we want to especially thank everyone who trusted us with their home experience this year.
At present, interest rates are below 4% and opportunities for home buyers are still outstanding. With new construction expected to double in spring 2013, home sellers should be in top shape and ready to go on the market now or early in 2013 before new construction homes are completed.
We hope you enjoy the stats and analysis. We want all our clients and friends to be the best informed real estate owners and consumers in the market.
Market Trends• New Construction- Strong Increase early 2013 = Existing home
sellers should be on the market now• Interest Rates- Gradual rise as economy improves = future
higher cost of ownership per $1 purchased• Rental Rates- High rents begin push back to buying = rising
demand for new and existing houses• Home Inventories- Low levels of existing houses for sale = less
competition for good houses, shorter time on market• Price Stabilization- Has occurred = gradual, historical, “normal”
rise in prices returning• Foreclosure-delinquent inventories down = Less competition
from low price inventory
Please call us at 704-904-8769 or e-mail us at [email protected] with any questions about the review, trends or any of the attached tables.
2012 National Statistics and Trends• Average sales price nationwide was $215,000.• 87% of buyers financed their purchase and average amount financed was
91% of purchase price, a strong sign of a more favorable lending environment.
• 40% of home buyers and 38% of home sellers chose their agent from a referral from a relative, neighbor or friend.
• 39 percent of recent home buyers were first-time buyers, a slight rise from 2011, but closer to the historical norm of 40 percent.
• 65 percent of recent home buyers were married couples—the highest share since 2001.
• For 52 percent of home buyers, the first step in the home-buying process was taken online. Over 90% used the internet in their search process.
• The typical home buyer searched for 12 weeks and viewed 10 homes—a decline from 12 homes in prior year, which speaks to the tightened inventory in many areas.
• 89 percent of buyers purchased their home through a real estate agent or broker, a share that steadily increased from 69 percent in 2001.
• 88 percent of sellers were assisted by a real estate agent when selling their home.
Source: National Association of Realtors
ALLEN TATE 13 COUNTY CHARLOTTE REGION
COMPARED TO CHARLOTTE MLS Closed Units Listings Taken
Allen Tate
Jan. – September 2012 6,920 5,899Percentage Change 26.7 3.6
Charlotte MLS
Jan. – September 2012 20,482 36,996 Percentage Change 17.3 -0.8
We closed one out of every 3 houses sold in the region!
WE’RE ON FIRE!COMPANYWIDE RESULTS- NC & SC
*As of 11/30/2012
Current* Last Year Change
LISTINGS Month to Date 877 797 10.0% Year to Date 12,369 11,521 7.4%
SALES Month to Date 1,382 1,078 28.2% Year to Date 18,089 13,947 29.7%
CLOSINGS Month to Date 1,346 900 49.6% Year to Date 14,629 11,379 28.6%
Tate Closed Transactions
‘06 24,446
‘07 22,451
‘08 15,364
‘09 12,610
‘10 12,264
‘11 12,405
‘12 15,211 Estimated
NATIONAL PICTUREHome Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
4.4 4.8 M
Distressed 22%
Home Prices $187,400 9% 6 Straight Months
Days on Market 8.2 Last August6.1 This August
Mortgage Rate Forecast(Average Rate of 5.5% in 2015 ?)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
fore
cast
2014
fore
cast
2015
fore
cast
0
2
4
6
30-year Mortgage
Modestly higher rates could help home sales as banks re-staff mortgage work for home purchase applications and less refinance applications.
Monthly Pending Home Sales Index(Seasonally Adjusted)
707580859095
100105110115
Homebuyer Tax Credit
Source: NAR
20 11/20/12 11/20/12
Annual Existing Home Sales:U-Shaped Recovery
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
est
.
2013
2014
2015
0
2
4
6
87.08
6.52
5.024.12 4.34 4.18 4.26 4.65 5.05 5.3 5.6
In million units
Visible Housing Inventory For Sale(Existing home inventory at 8-year low)
2000 - Jan2002 - Apr 2004 - Jul 2006 - Oct2009 - Jan2011 - Apr0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Visible Housing Inventory For Sale(Newly Constructed Homes Inventory at 50-year low)
1964 - Jan 1971 - Jul 1979 - Jan 1986 - Jul 1994 - Jan 2001 - Jul 2009 - Jan0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Shadow Inventory … Falling(Seriously delinquent mortgage + homes in foreclosure process)
million units
2000
- Q
1
2001
- Q
1
2002
- Q
1
2003
- Q
1
2004
- Q
1
2005
- Q
1
2006
- Q
1
2007
- Q
1
2008
- Q
1
2009
- Q
1
2010
- Q
1
2011
- Q
1
2012
- Q
10.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.0
Distressed Sales Market Share
2010 … 33%
2011 … 33%
2012 … 25%
2013 … 15%
2014 … 8%
2015 … 5%
2000
- Q
1
2000
- Q
4
2001
- Q
3
2002
- Q
2
2003
- Q
1
2003
- Q
4
2004
- Q
3
2005
- Q
2
2006
- Q
1
2006
- Q
4
2007
- Q
3
2008
- Q
2
2009
- Q
1
2009
- Q
4
2010
- Q
3
2011
- Q
2
2012
- Q
10
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000In $ billion
If 4% annual gain
Bubble growth
Net Equity in Real Estate
Renter Households
1980 - Q1 1984 - Q4 1989 - Q3 1994 - Q2 1999 - Q1 2003 - Q4 2008 - Q325,000
27,000
29,000
31,000
33,000
35,000
37,000
39,000
41,000
In thousands
Homeowner Households
1980 - Q1 1984 - Q4 1989 - Q3 1994 - Q2 1999 - Q1 2003 - Q4 2008 - Q350,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
75,000
80,000
In thousands
Homeownership Rate at 65.5%(Lowest in 15 years)
1965 - Q11971 - Q31978 - Q11984 - Q31991 - Q11997 - Q32004 - Q12010 - Q358
60
62
64
66
68
70 %
2011History
2012Forecast
2013Forecast
2014Forecast
GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.5% 3.1%
Existing Home Sales
4.26 million 4.64 million 5.05 million 5.3 million
New Home Sales
301,000 368,000 575,000 650,000
Housing Starts 612,000 776,000 1,128,000 1,300,000
Existing Home Price
$166,100 $176,100 $185,200 $195,000
Fed Funds Rate
0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
30-yr Mortgage 4.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6%
Thanks for the opportunity to present our report and please call or e-mail
with any questions.