2012 semiannual forecast report
DESCRIPTION
2012 Semiannual Forecast Report. December 11, 2012 ISM Business Survey Committees. Speakers. Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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2012 Semiannual 2012 Semiannual Forecast ReportForecast Report
December 11, 2012ISM Business Survey Committees
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Speakers
Bradley J. Holcomb, CPSM, CPSD, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
Anthony S. Nieves, C.P.M., CFPM, chair of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee
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PMI 2004 – November 2012
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NMI 2008 - November 2012
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Non-Manufacturing Business Activity 2004 – November 2012
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Current Operating Rate
Percent of Normal Capacity
December 2012 77.5%April 2012 81.6%December 2011 79.2%
December 2012 85.4%April 2012 85.2%December 2011 85.2%
ManufacturingManufacturing
Non-ManufacturingNon-Manufacturing
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Production Capacity ChangeReported 2012 vs. 2011
Production Capacity Dec 2012
Mfg Non-Mfg+ 1.3%+ 3.2%
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Production Capacity:Manufacturing
Principal Means of Achieving Increases in 2012: Additional personnel (permanent, temporary
or contract) More hours worked with existing personnel Additional plant and/or equipment Replaced equipment with technically
advanced equipment
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Additional personnel (permanent, temporary or contract)
More hours worked with existing personnel Additional plant and/or equipment Replaced equipment with technically
advanced equipment
Production Capacity: Non-Manufacturing
Principal Means of Achieving Increases in 2012:
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Production Capacity ChangePredicted For 2013
Predicted Production Capacity
Mfg Non-Mfg+ 6.8% + 3.4%
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Capital Expenditures
Mfg Non-Mfg
+ 3.7% + 9.4%
Mfg Non-Mfg
+ 7.6% + 7.0%
Actual
2012 vs. 2011
Predicted
2013 vs. 2012
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Price Changes Mfg Non-Mfg
Dec 2012 + 0.8% + 2.7%
Reported Purchase Price Changes
End 2012 vs. End 2011
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Mfg Non-Mfg
April 2013 vs. End 2012 + 2.1% + 2.3%
End 2013 vs. End 2012 + 2.8% + 2.7%
December 2012
Predicted Purchase Price Changes
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Predicted Labor and Benefit Costs
Labor & Benefit Costs Mfg Non-Mfg
Dec 2012 + 1.7% + 1.9%
2013 vs. 2012
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Predicted Employment Change
Overall Employment Mfg Non-Mfg
Dec 2012 + 0.8% + 1.3%
End 2013 vs. End 2012
16Note: 81.4% of Manufacturing respondents export
Exports: Predicted Change FirstHalf 2013
ManufacturingManufacturing
17Note: 22% of Non-Manufacturing respondents export
Non-ManufacturingNon-Manufacturing
Exports: Predicted Change First Half 2013
18Note: 85% of Manufacturing respondents import
ManufacturingManufacturing
Imports: Predicted Change First Half 2013
19Note: 45.4% of Non-Manufacturing respondents import
Non-ManufacturingNon-Manufacturing
Imports: Predicted Change First Half 2013
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Business Revenues (nominal)
Mfg Non-Mfg
Reported 2012 vs. 2011 + 4.0% + 3.4%
Predicted 2013 vs. 2012 + 4.6% + 4.3%
December 2012
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Industries Predicting Growth in Revenues
2013 vs. 2012 — Manufacturing Primary MetalsPrimary Metals Petroleum & Coal ProductsPetroleum & Coal Products Computer & Electronic Computer & Electronic
ProductsProducts Wood ProductsWood Products Furniture & Related ProductsFurniture & Related Products Printing & Related Support Printing & Related Support
ActivitiesActivities Food, Beverage & Tobacco Food, Beverage & Tobacco
ProductsProducts Paper ProductsPaper Products
Chemical ProductsChemical Products Plastics & Rubber ProductsPlastics & Rubber Products Apparel, Leather & Allied Apparel, Leather & Allied
ProductsProducts Miscellaneous ManufacturingMiscellaneous Manufacturing Transportation EquipmentTransportation Equipment MachineryMachinery Nonmetallic Mineral ProductsNonmetallic Mineral Products Electrical Equipment, Electrical Equipment,
Appliances & ComponentsAppliances & Components Fabricated Metal ProductsFabricated Metal Products
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Industries Predicting Growth in Revenues
2013 vs. 2012 — Non-Manufacturing ConstructionConstruction Professional, Scientific & Professional, Scientific &
Technical ServicesTechnical Services Other ServicesOther Services Management of Companies Management of Companies
& Support Services& Support Services Real Estate, Rental & Real Estate, Rental &
LeasingLeasing Wholesale TradeWholesale Trade Retail TradeRetail Trade
Transportation & Transportation & WarehousingWarehousing
Accommodation & Food Accommodation & Food ServicesServices
Arts, Entertainment & Arts, Entertainment & RecreationRecreation
Finance & InsuranceFinance & Insurance InformationInformation Public AdministrationPublic Administration Health Care & Social Health Care & Social
AssistanceAssistance
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Mfg Non-Mfg
Better 40% 43%
Same 38% 41%
Worse 22% 16%
Diffusion Index 59% 63.5%
First Half 2013 vs. Last Half 2012
Business in 2013
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Second Half 2013 vs. First Half 2013
Mfg Non-Mfg
Better 46% 42% Same 44% 48% Worse 10% 10% Diffusion Index 68% 66%
Business in 2013
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Most Important Issues Facing Business
ManufacturingManufacturing Poor sales (37.8%) Government regulations (30.5%) Inflation (9.8%) Taxes (9.1%) Quality of labor (4.9%) Interest rates and finance (4.3%) Cost of labor (3.7%)
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Most Important Issues Facing Business
Non-ManufacturingNon-Manufacturing Government regulations (35.4%) Poor sales (22.2%) Cost of labor (10.4%) Inflation (9%) Interest rates and finance (9%) Taxes (7.6%) Quality of labor (6.3%)
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Manufacturing Most Cited ApproachesManufacturing Most Cited Approaches
Strategic sourcing/supply base rationalization
Inventory management and control
Process and information systems improvements
Supplier performance management
Demand planning to reduce supply lead times
Supply Chain Improvements 2013
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Non-Manufacturing Most Cited Non-Manufacturing Most Cited ApproachesApproaches
Strategic cost management
Process improvement
Strategic sourcing
Supplier relationship management
Professional development
Supply Chain Improvements 2013
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Change for 2013 vs. 2012
Mfg Non-Mfg
Expect to Increase 19% 12%
Expect No Change 60% 79%
Expect to Decrease 21% 9%
Diffusion Index 49% 51.5%
Predicted Inventory-to-Sales Ratio
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Business Outlook Next 12 Months
Mfg Non-Mfg
Better 42% 47%
Same 38% 31%
Worse 20% 22%
Diffusion Index 61% 62.5%
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Strength of the U.S. Dollar for 2013
ManufacturingManufacturing
Dec 2013 53.3%
Dec 2012 49.2%
Average Diffusion Index for U.S. Dollar vs. 7 Major CurrenciesAverage Diffusion Index for U.S. Dollar vs. 7 Major Currencies
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Reported Profit MarginsApr 2012 – Nov 2012
Mfg Non-Mfg
Better 34% 21%
Same 40% 44%
Worse 26% 35%
Diffusion Index 54% 43%
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Predicted Profit MarginsNov 2012 – Apr 2013
Mfg Non-Mfg
Better 28% 28%
Same 50% 53%
Worse 22% 19%
Diffusion Index 53% 54.5%
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Summary Manufacturing
Operating rate is currently at 77.5%. Production capacity increased by 1.3% in
2012. Production capacity is expected to increase
by 6.8% in 2013. Capital expenditures increased 3.7% in 2012. Capital expenditures are expected to
increase 7.6% in 2013.
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Prices paid increased 0.8% in 2012. Overall 2013 prices paid are expected to
increase 2.8%. Labor and benefit costs are expected to
increase 1.7% in 2013. Manufacturing employment is expected to
increase 0.8% in 2013. Expect growth in U.S. exports in 2013. Expect growth in U.S. imports in 2013.
Summary Manufacturingcontinued
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Manufacturing revenues (nominal) are up 4% in 2012.
Manufacturing revenues (nominal) are expected to increase 4.6% in 2013.
The U.S. dollar is expected to strengthen on average versus major trading partner currencies in 2013.
Overall attitude of manufacturing supply managers: optimistic, with 80% of respondents predicting 2013 will be the same as or better than 2012.
Summary Manufacturingcontinued
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Summary Non-Manufacturing
Operating rate is currently at 85.4%.
Production capacity increased 3.2% in 2012.
Production and provision capacity is expected to increase 3.4% in 2013.
Capital expenditures increased 9.4% in 2012.
Capital expenditures are expected to increase 7% in 2013.
Prices paid increased 2.7% in 2012.
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Prices paid are expected to increase 2.7% in 2013.
Labor and benefit costs are expected to increase 1.9% in 2013.
Non-manufacturing employment is expected to increase 1.3% in 2013.
Expect export levels to increase in 2013.
Expect import growth in 2013.
Summary Non-Manufacturing continued
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Summary Non-Manufacturing continued
Non-manufacturing revenues (nominal) are up 3.4% in 2012.
Non-manufacturing revenues (nominal) are expected to rise 4.3% in 2013.
Overall attitude of non-manufacturing supply managers: mostly positive outlook, with 78% of respondents predicting 2013 will be the same as or better than 2012.
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Questions