ism ® manufacturing & non-manufacturing semiannual economic forecast
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ISM ® Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing Semiannual Economic Forecast. ISM Semiannual Economic Forecast, Spring 2014. Spring Update of December 2013 Forecast for 2014 Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Sectors Compare 2014 Forecasts with 2013 Reported Results - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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ISM® MANUFACTURING & NON-MANUFACTURING
SEMIANNUAL ECONOMIC FORECAST
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• Spring Update of December 2013 Forecast for 2014• Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Sectors• Compare 2014 Forecasts with 2013 Reported Results• Broad Sector Overviews with Industry-Specific Insights• Revenue, CapEx, Commodity Prices, Employment• Special Question Related to Harsh Weather Impact
ISM Semiannual Economic Forecast, Spring 2014
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2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
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Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +3.4%• CapEx +12.3% • Prices +0.9%• Employment +1.7%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
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† Predicted Jan–Dec 2014Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +3.4%• CapEx +12.3% • Prices +0.9%• Employment +1.7%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
• Revenue +4.4%• CapEx +8.0%• Prices +1.6%• Employment +2.4%†
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2013Reported Results December 2013
April–December
2014APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
† Predicted Jan–Dec 2014
• Revenue +5.3%• CapEx +10.3%• Prices +1.5%• Employment +1.5%‡
‡ Predicted May–Dec 2014Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +4.4%• CapEx +8.0%• Prices +1.6%• Employment +2.4%†
• Revenue +3.4%• CapEx +12.3% • Prices +0.9%• Employment +1.7%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
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2013Reported Results December 2013
April–December
2014APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
‡ diffusion index for April 2014
Reported for 2014:• Revenue +5.3%• Prices +1.3%• Employment 54.7%‡
The 3 Special Questions Related to Harsh Weather:
April 2014Semiannual Special Questions
Manufacturing
Not Impacted Short-Term Long-Term Unsure
New Orders 51.3% 34.2% 6% 8.5%
Production 52.8% 34.2% 7.5% 5.5%
Employment 78.5% 12.5% 3% 6%
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APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
‡ diffusion index for April 2014
Reported for 2014:• Revenue +5.3%• Prices +1.3%• Employment 54.7%‡
PresentHere’s where we
are now
2014 Industries Reporting Revenue Growth
Manufacturing
Textile Mills Printing & Related Support
Activities Furniture & Related Products Food, Beverage & Tobacco
Products Fabricated Metal Products Transportation Equipment Plastics & Rubber Products Paper Products Miscellaneous Manufacturing
Nonmetallic Mineral Products Chemical Products Computer & Electronic Products Primary Metals Petroleum & Coal Products Electrical Equipment, Appliances
& Components Wood Products Machinery Apparel, Leather & Allied
Products
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2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
Non-Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
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Non-Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +4.0%• CapEx +4.2% • Prices +1.3%• Employment +0.4%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
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† Predicted Jan–Dec 2014Non-Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +4.0%• CapEx +4.2% • Prices +1.3%• Employment +0.4%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
• Revenue +3.6%• CapEx +4.6%• Prices +1.9%• Employment +2.1%†
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2013Reported Results December 2013
April–December
2014APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
† Predicted Jan–Dec 2014
• Revenue +2.7%• CapEx +10.8%• Prices +2.2%• Employment +1.4%‡
‡ Predicted May–Dec 2014Non-Manufacturing
2013Reported Results December 2013
2014Initial Forecast
December 20142014
Updated Forecast April 2014
• Revenue +3.6%• CapEx +4.6%• Prices +1.9%• Employment +2.1%†
• Revenue +4.0%• CapEx +4.2% • Prices +1.3%• Employment +0.4%*
* Reported for May–Dec 2013
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2013Reported Results December 2013
April–December
2014APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
‡ diffusion index for April 2014
Reported for 2014:• Revenue +5.3%• Prices +1.3%• Employment 54.7%‡
The 3 Special Questions Related to Harsh Weather:
April 2014Semiannual Special Questions
Non-Manufacturing
Not Impacted Short-Term Long-Term Unsure
New Orders 58% 26.4% 6.3% 9.2%
Business Activity 57.1% 32.6% 5.7% 4.6%
Employment 81.7% 9.7% 2.3% 6.3%
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APRIL–DECEMBER
2013
‡ diffusion index for April 2014
Reported for 2014:• Revenue +5.3%• Prices +1.3%• Employment 54.7%‡
PresentHere’s where we
are now
2014 Industries Reporting Revenue Growth
Non-Manufacturing
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Transportation & Warehousing Construction Mining Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Arts, Entertainment & Recreation Utilities Public Administration
Finance & Insurance Accommodation & Food Services Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services Management of Companies &
Support Services Information Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Educational Services Other Services
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See Report for Additional Forecast Details…• Operating Rates as Percent of Normal Capacity• Expected Production Capacity Increases• Industries Listed in Order of Growth, Increases, etc.
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