2012 hydropower roadmap

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Technology RoadmapHydropower

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1Foreword

Current trends in energy supply and use areunsustainable economically, environmentallyand socially. Without decisive action, energy-related greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions couldmore than double by 2050, and increased oildemand will heighten concerns over the securityof supplies. We can and must change the path weare now on; sustainable and low-carbon energytechnologies will play a crucial role in the energyrevolution required to make this change happen.To effectively reduce GHG emissions, energyefficiency, many types of renewable energy, carboncapture and storage (CCS), nuclear power and newtransport technologies will all require widespreaddeployment if we are to reach our greenhouse-gas

emission goals. Every major country and sector ofthe economy must be involved and action needsto be taken now, in order to ensure that todaysinvestment decisions do not burden us withsuboptimal technologies in the long term.

There is a growing awareness of the urgent need toturn political statements and analytical work intoconcrete action. To address these challenges, theInternational Energy Agency (IEA), at the requestof the G8, is developing a series of roadmaps forsome of the most important technologies neededto achieve a global energy-related CO

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target in2050 of 50% below current levels. Each roadmapdevelops a growth path for the covered technologyfrom today to 2050, and identif ies technology,financing, policy and public engagement milestonesthat need to be achieved to realise the technologysfull potential.

Hydropower is the largest single renewableelectricity source today, providing 16% of worldelectricity at competitive prices. It dominates theelectricity mix in several countries, developed,emerging or developing. In many others it provides

significant amounts of clean, renewable electricity.It also helps control water flows and availability.Its extreme flexibility is a strong asset for electricsystems, and will be vital to accommodate andfacilitate the growth of variable renewable energy

technologies such as wind power and solarphotovoltaics. It can foster social and economicprogress, especially in developing countries. Thisroadmap considers that both annual hydropowercapacities and generation should by 2050 roughlydouble from current levels.

Hydropower is a competitive energy sourcealready today, but its fur ther deployment stillfaces important regulatory, financial and publicacceptance issues. This roadmap identifiesthose barriers and includes proposals to addressthem, including technology and managerialimprovements enhancing the environmentalperformance of hydro.

Other IEA technology roadmaps have alreadyincluded a special focus on the diffusion of cleanenergy technologies in countries beyond the IEA. Asthe bulk of the growth of hydropower will come fromlarge-scale projects in emerging economies, the IEAbenefited greatly from full-fledged cooperation fromBrazil in elaborating and publishing this roadmap.Brazil, a leader in hydropower, shared its vastexperience and knowledge. We are both confidentthat this novel and fruit ful co-operation will broadenas we continue to seek solutions to the worldsenergy challenges.

Maria van der Hoeven

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

Edison Lobo

Minister of Mines and Energy

Federative Republic of Brazil

Foreword

This roadmap reflects the views of the IEA Secretariat and the Ministry of Mines and Energy of the Federative Republic ofBrazil, but does not necessarily reflect those of the individual member countries of the IEA or the OECD. The roadmap doesnot constitute advice on any specific issue or situation. The IEA and the Ministry of Mines and Energy of the FederativeRepublic of Brazil make no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect of the roadmaps contents (including itscompleteness or accuracy) and shall not be responsible for any use of, or reliance on, the roadmap. For further information,please contact: [email protected].


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2 Technology Roadmaps Hydropower

Foreword 1

Acknowledgements 4

Key findings 5

Key actions in the next ten years 6

Introduction 7

Rationale for hydropower 7

Purpose, process and structure of this roadmap 8

Hydropower today 9

Overview 9

Diversity of hydropower 11

Classification by hydraulic head or powerplant size 14

Energy services 15Vision for hydropower deployment 18

Regional scales 20

The broader context of renewable deployment 24

Pumped storage hydropower deployment 25

Contribution to CO2

abatement 27

Sustainable hydropower development 28

Environmental issues 28

Socio-economic issues 32

Public acceptance 32

Sustainable approach to development 33The energy-water nexus 36

Economics 38

Costs 38

Support mechanisms 41

Financial challenges 42

Technology improvements: roadmap actions and milestones 46

Technical improvements 46

Managerial improvements 47

Innovations in pumped storage hydropower technologies 49

Policy framework: roadmap actions and milestones 51

Setting up/improving the policy framework 51

Ensuring sustainable development and gaining public acceptance 52

Overcoming economic and financial challenges 53

Conclusion: near-term actions for stakeholders 55

Acronyms and abbreviations 57

Detailed potential estimate in South and Central America 58

References 59

Table of contents


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3Table of contents

List of figures

Figure 1. Global electr icity generation by fuel, 1973-2010 9

Figure 2. Hydroelectricity generation, 1965-2011 11Figure 3. Electricity generation from recent additions to hydropower (left) and other renewables (right) 12

Figure 4. Cascading hydropower plants 13

Figure 5. Pumped storage plant 13

Figure 6. Pelton, Francis and Kaplan turbines 14

Figure 7. The Scandinavia - Northern Europe interconnections 16

Figure 8. Regional hydropower technical potential andpercentage of undeveloped technical potential (2009) 18

Figure 9. Expected mid-term evolution of hydropower installed capacity (GW) 19

Figure 10. Hydroelectricity generation till 2050 in the Hydropower Roadmap vision (TWh) 19

Figure 11. Historical hydroelectricity generation and projectionsin ETP 6DS and 2DS, in TWh and shares of total electr icity generation 20

Figure 12. Fuel mix in power generation and in the 2DS, 2009-50 25

Figure 13. Estimates of lifecycle GHG emissions in electr icity generation (excluding land-use changes) 30

Figure 14. Major dams under development today of which 60% are multi-purpose 35

Figure 15. Costs of electricity storage technologies 40

Figure 16. Share of HP projects per host country 41

Figure 17. Improvement of hydraulic performance over time 46

Figure 18. Evolution of production over time 48

Figure 19. Concept of an energy island 50

List of tables

Table 1. Top ten hydropower producers in 2011 10

Table 2. Countries with more than half their electricity generation from hydropower in 2009 10

Table 3. Definitions of small-scale hydro in different countries 15

Table 4. Expected PSP capacities in 2050 27

Table 5. Possible barriers and enabling factors for hydropower development 28

Table 6. Variations of the LCOE of a representative hydropower plant with WACC and load factor 38

Table 7. Minimum and maximum LCOE for selected electr icity generating technologies 39

List of boxes

Box 1. Hydro backing wind power: the Denmark - Norway connection 16Box 2. Hydro facilitat ing wind power in Portugal 26

Box 3. The Nam Theun 2 project: a model for sustainable development? 32

Box 4. IHA Hydropower Sustainability Assessment Protocol 33

Box 5. The Brazilian approach: from river basin inventories to integrated energy planning 34

Box 6. Strategic environment assessment of multi-purpose hydropower development. 36

Box 7. Sensitivity of LCOE to variations of capacity factor and cost of capital 38

Box 8. Financing the Nam Theum 2 project 43

Box 9. Auction procedures in Brazil and the role of the BNDES bank 44


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(CEPEL); Luiz Guilherme Marzano (CEPEL); Jian-Hua

Meng (WWF Global Water Security Initiative) ;

Paul Nel (Aurecon); Johansen Jan Oivind (Ministry

of Petroleum and Energy, Norway); Christine van

Oldeneel (Hydro Equipment Association); Victorio

Oxilia (OLADE); Clemente Prieto (Iberdrola); Tormod

Schei (Statkraft); Pierre Schlosser (Eurelectric); Karin

Helen Seelos (Statkraft); Steve Usher (International

Journal on Hydropower and Dams); Walter Vergara

(Inter-American Development Bank); and Francisco

Romrio Wojcicki (Ministry of Mines and Energy

of Brazil).

The authors would also like to thank Peter

Chambers, Rebecca Gaghen and Marilyn Smith

for skilfully editing the manuscript, as well as theIEA Publication Unit, in particular Muriel Custodio,

Cheryl Haines and Astrid Dumond. Bertrand Sadin

created the design and the layout.

Finally, the support of the Brazilian and French

governments, through CEPEL and ADEME, the

French Agency for Energy Management and the

Environment, and Iberdrola, is fully acknowledged.

This publication was prepared by the International

Energy Agencys Renewable Energy division (RED),

in co-operation with CEPEL, the Brazilian Electric

Energy Research Center on behalf of the Ministry

of Mines and Energy. Cdric Philibert and Carlos

Gasco were the co-ordinators and main authors

of this report, together with Maria Elvira Maceira

from CEPEL, and Niels Nielsen, Secretary of the

Implementing Agreement for a Co-operative

Programme on Hydropower Technologies and

Programmes (Hydropower IA). Paolo Frankl, head

of the Renewable Energy Division, and Albert Geber

de Melo, Director-General of CEPEL, provided

invaluable guidance and input to this work. Mrcio

Zimmermann, Deputy Minister of Mines and Energy

of Brazil, and Didier Houssin, former Director ofEnergy Markets and Security at the IEA, provided

additional guidance and input. Several other IEA

colleagues also provided important contributions

to the work on this roadmap, in particular Uwe

Remme, Cecilia Tam and Zuzana Dobrotkova.

The authors are very grateful for all their inputs to

all reviewers. Their list includes Luisa Almeida Serra

(Energias de Portugal); Pedro Bara Neto (WWF

Living Amazon Network Initiative); Fabio Batista

(CEPEL); Alex Beckitt (Hydro Tasmania); Emmanuel

Branche (Electricit de France); Arnaud Chaffoteaux

(Alstom); Fernanda Costa (CEPEL); Jorge Damazio

(CEPEL); Rajesh Dham and anonymous contributors

(United States Department of Energy); Paulo Cesar

Domingues (Ministry of Mines and Energy of Brazil);

Jakob Granit (Stockholm Water Institute); Prieto

Hernandez (Iberdrola); Gilberto Hollauer (Ministry

of Mines and Energy of Brazil); the International

Hydropower Association (IHA); Wim Jonker Klunne

(CSIR, Republic of South Africa); Ruud Kempener

(IRENA); Arun Kumar (IIT Roorkee, India); Franois

Lemperire (Hydrocoop); Alberto Levy (Inter-

American Development Bank); Maria Luiza Lisboa

Acknowledgements


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5Key findings

z Hydroelectricity presents several advantages overmost other sources of electrical power, includinga high level of reliability, proven technology, highefficiency, very low operating and maintenancecosts, flexibility and large storage capacity.

z Hydropower is the major renewable electricitygeneration technology worldwide and willremain so for a long time. Since 2005, newcapacity additions in hydropower have generatedmore electricity than all other renewablescombined.

z The potential for additional hydropower remainsconsiderable, especially in Africa, Asia andLatin America. This roadmap foresees, by 2050,a doubling of global capacity up to almost2 000 GW and of global electricity generationover 7 000 TWh. Pumped storage hydropowercapacities would be multiplied by a factor of3 to 5.

z Most of the growth in hydroelectricitygeneration will come from large projects inemerging economies and developing countries.In these countr ies, large and small hydropowerprojects can improve access to modern energyservices and alleviate poverty, and foster social

and economic development, especially forlocal communities. In industrialised countries,upgrading or redevelopment of existing plantscan deliver additional benefits.

z Hydropower reservoirs can also regulate waterflows for freshwater supply, flood control,irrigation, navigation services and recreation.Regulation of water flow may be important toclimate change adaptation.

z Both reservoir and pumped storage hydropowerare flexible sources of electricity that can helpsystem operators handle the variability of otherrenewable energy such as wind power andphotovoltaic electricity.

z In order to achieve its considerable potentialfor increasing energy security while reducingreliance on electricity from fossil fuels,hydropower must overcome barriers relative topolicy, environment, public acceptance, marketdesign and financial challenges.

z Large or small, associated with a reservoiror run-of-river, hydropower projects mustbe designed and operated to mitigate orcompensate impacts on the environment andlocal populations. The hydropower industryhas developed a variety of tools, guidelines andprotocols to help developers and operatorsaddress the environmental and social issues in asatisfactory manner.

z New turbines and design make modernhydropower plants more sustainable andenvironmentally friendly; better managementhelps avoid damage to downstream ecosystems.

z

Hydropower projects require very substantialup-front investment, which can range up totens of billion USD. Although hydropower isthe least-cost renewable electricity technologyand is usually competitive with all alternatives,financing remains a key issue. This roadmap callsfor innovative financing schemes and marketdesign reforms to ensure adequate long-termrevenue flows and alleviate risks for investors.

Key findings


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Key actions in the next ten years

Concerted action by all stakeholders is critical torealise the vision laid out in this roadmap. In orderto stimulate investment on the scale necessaryto achieve the aimed-for levels of sustainablehydropower, governments must take the leadin creating a favourable climate for industryinvestment. Actions necessary to achieve thesetargets relate to the policy and market framework,sustainability and public acceptance, financialchallenges and further technology development.

With respect to policy, governments should:

z Establish or update an inventory of hydropowerpotential, at river basin level where appropriate;include options for upgrading or redeveloping

existing plants to increase performance; assessfeasibility of adding hydropower units to damsoriginally developed for flood control, irrigation,navigation or drinking.

z Prepare hydropower development plans withtargets; and track progress towards meetingthese targets. Least-developed countries couldreceive appropriate support to this end.

z Develop and promote a policy framework andmarket design for appropriate and sustainablehydropower projects.

With respect to sustainability and publicacceptance, governments and relevantstakeholders should:

z Ensure that developers and operators documentthe approach to sustainability that will befollowed, such as environmental impactassessment reports and/or voluntary protocols.

z Disseminate information to public andstakeholders on hydropowers role in producingsustainable energy and contributing to targetsfor climate change reduction.

z Consider sustainability issues in the co-ordinatedoperation of hydropower plants at electrical-interconnected river-basin level to takeadvantage of hydrological complementarities.

With respect to financial challenges, governmentsand relevant stakeholders should:

z Include the financing of hydropower ongovernments policy agendas and develop newpublic risk-mitigating financing instruments.

z Develop effective financial models to supportlarge numbers of hydropower projects indeveloping regions.

z Provide guidance to determine the real valueof hydropower and pumped storage, andmechanisms for remuneration.

z Establish economic tools to assess the non-energy contributions of multi-purposehydropower developments.

With respect to technology development,governments and industry should:

z Expand, co-ordinate and disseminate results oftechnology development to improve operationalperformance and reduce costs of development.

z Ensure that the industry develops technologiesat hydropower plants to better support thegrid integration of large amounts of variablerenewable energy.


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7Introduction

Introduction

There is a pressing need to accelerate thedevelopment of advanced energy technologiesin order to address the global challenges ofenergy security, climate change and sustainabledevelopment. This challenge was acknowledged bythe energy ministers from G8 countries, China, Indiaand Korea, in their meeting in June 2008 in Aomori,Japan, where they declared the wish to have IEAprepare roadmaps to advance innovative energytechnology:

We will establish an international initiative with

the support of the IEA to develop roadmaps for

innovative technologies and co-operate upon

existing and new partnerships [....] Reaffirming our

Heiligendamm commitment to urgently develop,deploy and foster clean energy technologies, we

recognise and encourage a wide range of policy

instruments such as transparent regulatory

frameworks, economic and fiscal incentives, and

public/private par tnerships to foster private sector

investments in new technologies...

To achieve this ambitious goal, the IEA is developinga series of roadmaps to advance the developmentand deployment of low-carbon energytechnologies, under international guidance and inclose consultation with industry. These technologies

are evenly divided among demand side and supplyside technologies.

This hydropower roadmap has been developedin collaboration with CEPEL, the Brazilian ElectricEnergy Research Center, representing the BrazilianMinistry of Mines and Energy. The strong rationalebehind this co-operation is the fact that the bulk ofthe current and future development of hydropowerwill take place in emerging economies; Brazilhas accumulated considerable experience in thedevelopment of sustainable hydropower, whilecarrying out deep reform of its power sector. Thisconjunction makes Brazils experience invaluable forother countries whether developing, emerging oralready industrialised.

The overall aim of the technology roadmap seriesis to advance global development and uptake ofkey technologies to achieve a 50% reduction in CO2emissions by 2050 (over 2005 levels). The roadmapswill enable governments and their industry andfinancial partners to identify the steps neededand implement measures to accelerate requiredtechnology development and uptake.

Rationale for hydropower

Hydropower is a mature and cost-competitiverenewable energy source. It plays an important rolein todays electricity mix, contributing to more than16% of electricity generation worldwide and about85% of global renewable electricity. Furthermore,it helps stabilise fluctuations between demand andsupply. This role will become even more importantin the coming decades, as the shares of variablerenewable electricity sources primarily windpower and solar photovoltaic (PV) will increaseconsiderably.

The contribution of hydropower to decarbonising

the energy mix is thus twofold: the primary benefitis its clean, renewable electricity. The secondarybenefit is as an enabler to greater contribution ofother renewables on the grid.

Hydropower development often contributes otherbenefit s. The most important are water supply,flood and drought control, and irrigation; butnavigation and recreational activities also havetheir place. These objectives can conflict at times,but are more often complementary. Providing suchmultiple outcomes from sustainable hydropowerdevelopment is central to this roadmap.

Hydropower is too often overlooked in energypolicies. Policy makers, especially in industrialisedcountries, tend to believe that the economicpotential for hydropower plant was exhausteddecades ago, and/or that hydropower plants aredetrimental to the protection of the environment,or unsafe. The possible contribution of hydropowerto help balance fluctuations in electricity supplyfrom wind and solar PV is not always understood.However, economic conditions are changing fast,technologies are improving, and environmental,

social and economic conditions of sustainabilityare better understood and more often takeninto consideration. In general, the safety ofdams is now very high, and there are substantialoptions to increase the capacity, efficiency andenvironmental performance of old plants andmany opportunities to build new ones, especially inemerging and developing economies.


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Looking to the future, the most important driversfor hydropower development will continue to be:

z long and productive local generation capabilityand low life-cycle costs;z proven reliability of electricity production, with

few service interruptions;

z safe operation, with minimum risks tohydropower staff and the general public;

z environmental and socially sustainabledevelopment, providing climate changemitigation;

z flexible operations, energy services enhancinggrid stability and enabling use of variablerenewables;

z large-scale energy storage for seasonal loadbalancing;

z provision of many non-energy services suchas flood control, water supply and irrigation,especially in the context of growing freshwaterneeds and adaptation to climate change;

z upgrades, redevelopments and improvements toexisting hydropower plants;

z addition of hydropower facilities, where feasible,to existing dams originally built to provide floodcontrol, irrigation, water supply and other non-

energy purposes; andz energy security with local generation.

Purpose, process andstructure of this roadmap

This roadmap aims to identify the primary actionsand tasks that must be undertaken to acceleratehydropower development and deployment globally.Hydropower is a mature energy technology; mosttechnical improvements today aim to minimise

its possible negative environmental impactsand maximise its environmental benefits, whilemaintaining very high efficiency and acceptablecosts. Hydropower plants have low running costsand shield end-users against fossil fuel pricevolatility, but their potentially extended technicallife carries heavy initial investment costs. Hence,financing is possibly the most critical issue; itssolution rests in large part on policy frameworkand market design. Governments, whether indeveloping, emerging or mature economies,thus bear a critical responsibility in enabling the

deployment of hydropower.

The IEA convened a f irst Hydropower RoadmapWorkshop in Par is, France (26-27 May 2011) toinitiate the work, with a broad agenda includingenvironmental and financing issues. The BrazilianElectric Energy Research Center, CEPEL, hosteda second workshop in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil (10-11 October 2011), with a focus on the Amer icasand Asia. The IEA convened a third workshop inParis (9 May 2012) to discuss the shared visionfor hydropower deployment and key actions andmilestones. Finally, a short wrap-up session wasorganised in Washington, DC (30 May 2012) in themargins of the meetings of the IEA Hydropowerprogramme.

This roadmap is organised in six major sections.It starts with the status of hydropower today,revealing its diversity.1 It continues with a visionfor future deployment of hydropower, given its st illundeveloped potential, detailing regional scales;this section includes considerations on the broadercontext of renewable deployment and the role ofhydropower as an enabler for variable renewables.The following section considers the dimensions ofsustainability, detailing environmental issues, socio-economic and public acceptance issues, sustainableapproaches to deployment, and the energy-waternexus. The fifth section reviews the economicsof hydropower costs, support mechanisms andfinancial challenges. The roadmap then looks atcontinuing and future technology improvements,before addressing the policy framework, listingactions and milestones. It concludes by listing near-term actions for stakeholders.

1. Note, however, that this roadmap does not include informationon tidal and wave plants.


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Four countries (China, Brazil, Canada and the UnitedStates) together produce half the world hydropowergeneration; ten countr ies produce 70% (Table 1).

More than 35 countries obtained more than halfof their total electricity from hydropower in 2009(Table 2).

Table 1: Top ten hydropower producers in 2010

Note: These numbers do not include electricit y imports such as those from the Itaipu hydropower plant side of Paraguay to Brazil,which represent almost half of this hydropower plant generation (36 T Wh).

Table 2: Countries with more than half their electricitygeneration from hydropower in 2010

Note: Countries in bold are those where hydropower generation exceeded 20 TWh in 20 09 and is indicated in the last columnon the right.

Country Hydro electricity (TWh) Share of electricity generation (%)

China 694 14.8

Brazil 403 80.2

Canada 376 62.0

United States 328 7.6

Russia 165 15.7

India 132 13.1

Norway 122 95.3

Japan 85 7.8

Venezuela 84 68

Sweden 67 42.2

Share of

hydropowerCountries

Hydropower Generation

(TWh)

100%Albania, DR of Congo, Mozambique, Nepal, Paraguay,Tajikistan, Zambia

54

>90% Norway 126

>80% Brazil, Ethiopia, Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, Namibia 403

>70% Angola, Columbia, Costa Rica, Ghana, Myanmar, Venezuela 77

>60%Austria, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Iceland, Latvia, Peru,Tanzania, Togo

38; 351

>50%Croatia, Ecuador, Gabon, DPR of Korea, New Zealand,

Switzerland, Uruguay, Zimbabwe

25; 36


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11Hydropower today

Hydropower is not considered variable in the samesense as wind power or solar PV. This is in part dueto the control over the source through its storagecapabilities and the greater predictability (overwind power) of its generation (even for run-of-riverplants). Hydropower is, however, variable overlonger time scales, as it depends on precipitationand water run-off. The long-term output trendreflects the growth of hydropower capacitiesworldwide, with an increase of 52% from 1990 to2009 (Figure 2), with a particularly rapid growthin China (Brown et al., 2011). A slowdown betweenthe late 1990s and the early 2000s resulted from

escalating local and international controversiesover large dams, among other factors. This led tothe establishment of the World Commission onDams (WCD) and the publication of a major reportin November 2000, Dams and Development: A newframework for Decision-making(WCD, 2000). In2003, the World Bank approved its Water ResourcesSector Strategy, which supports renewable energyand renewable efficiency (World Bank, 2003). In2009, the World Bank highlighted the importanceof multi-purpose infrastructure as a driver for futurehydropower development (World Bank, 2009).

Figure 2: Hydroelectricity generation, 1965-2011

Sources: BP, 2012 and IEA analysis.

0

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1967

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TWh

Hydropower capacity is on the rise, reaching1 000 GW worldwide at the end of 2010. Its averageannual growth rate of about 2.5% looks small,especially when compared to growth rates of windand solar but this ignores its large existing base.In the last decade, electricity generation fromadditional hydro capacities has kept pace withgeneration from all other renewables together(Figure 3).

Diversity of hydropower

Hydropower plants are very diverse in terms ofsize and type of plant, size and type of generatingunit, the height of the water fall (head), theirfunctions (electricity generation, capacity or multi-purpose) and sizes. They are extremely site specificand tailor-made to local conditions. This roadmapprimarily classifies hydropower plants (HPP) in threefunctional categories: run-of-river (RoR), reservoir(or storage) HPP, and pumped storage plants

(PSP). RoR and reservoir HPP can be combined incascading river systems and PSP can utilise thewater storage of one or several reservoir HPPs.


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Run-of-river

An RoR hydropower plant harnesses energy forelectricity production mainly from the availableflow of the river. These plants may include short-term storage or pondage, allowing for somehourly or daily flexibility in adapting to the loaddemand profile, but the generation profile ismostly driven by natural river flow conditions orreleases from any upstream reservoir HPP. In theabsence of such upstream reservoir HPP, generationdepends on precipitation and runoff, and normallyhas substantial daily, monthly, seasonal and

yearly variations.

Reservoir

Storing water in a reservoir provides the flexibilityto generate electricity on demand, and reducesdependence on the variability of inflows. Verylarge reservoirs can retain months or even yearsof average inflows and can also provide floodprotection and irrigation services. In general, mostreservoir schemes serve various purposes. Thehydro plant design and provision of these servicesis very much dependent on the environment

and social needs of the region and local project

conditions. Most reservoirs are artificially createdby building a dam to control the natural river flow.

When local condit ions allow, natural lakes can alsofunction as reservoirs.

Reservoir HPP are characterised by their size,electrical capacity and generation potential. Ifthe capacity is small compared to the generationpotential and if the reservoir size allows, the HPPmight be used for base load, round the clock and inall seasons. Conversely, larger turbines would morerapidly exhaust the potential; generation in thiscase would preferably take place during hours of

peak demand.

Figure 3: Electricity generation from recent additions to hydropower (left)and other renewables (right)

Source: IEA , 2012b.

0

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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

TWh

Hydropower

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Solar GeothermalWind Bioenergy


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Most PSPs are open-loop systems developedfrom an existing HPP system by addition of eitheran upper or a lower reservoir. They are usuallyoff-stream. The off-stream configuration consistsof a lower reservoir on a stream, river or otherwater source, and a reservoir located off-streamusually at a higher elevation. (It is possible to havethe off-stream reservoir at a lower elevation suchas an abandoned mine or underground cavern).Another type is the pump-back project usingtwo reservoirs in series: a conventional hydroproject with a pumped storage cycle imposedon the normal hydropower operations. Pumpingfrom the downstream reservoir during low-loadperiods makes additional water available to use

for generation at high demand per iods. Finally,closed-loop systems are completely independentfrom existing water streams both reservoirs areoff-stream.

IEA analysis shows that existing installed turbinecapacity in PSP projects worldwide neared 140 GWat the end of 2011, up from 98 GW in 2005. Leadingcountries/regions include the European Union(45 GW), Japan (30 GW), China (24 GW), and theUnited States (20 GW). PSP, like HPP, cannot becharacterised only by electrical capacities. In Spain,the 17 PSPs allow storage of 1.5 TWh of electricityin an ideal pumping cycle starting with emptyupper reservoirs and full lower reservoirs, andfinishing with either full upper or empty lowerreservoirs. In the alpine countries, by contrast,16 PSPs store only 369 GWh in Switzerland, 9PSPs store 184 GWh in France, and 15 PSPs store125 GWh in Austria (EURELECTRIC, 2011).

The yearly potential of PSPs depends also on thenumber of cycles they perform. When variabilityarises from both demand and generation (usually as

a consequence of increasing penetration of variablerenewables), the cycling may accelerate, i.e. PSPmay shift between pump and turbine modes severaltimes per day, so increasing the yearly energy finallystored and returned to the grid.

Classification by hydraulichead or powerplant size

A classification by hydraulic head refers tothe difference between the upstream and thedownstream water levels. The classifications ofhigh head (say, above 300 m) and low head(say, less than 30 m) technologies vary widely from

country to country, and there are no generallyaccepted scales. Head determines the waterpressure on the turbines. Together, head anddischarge are the most important parameters fordeciding the type of hydraulic turbine to be used.

For high heads and small flows, Pelton turbinesare used, in which water passes through nozzlesand strikes spoon-shaped buckets arranged on theperiphery of a wheel (Figure 6, left). A less efficientvariant is the crossflow turbine. These are actionturbines, working only from the kinetic energy ofthe flow.

Francis turbines are the most common type, asthey accommodate a wide range of heads (20 mto 700 m), small to very large flows, a broad ratecapacity and excellent hydraulic efficiency. Guidevanes direct the water tangentially to the turbinewheel; the water enters the wheel and exits it inthe middle (Figure 6, centre). The guide vanes areadjustable to optimise output and efficiency overthe variations in head and flow conditions.

Figure 6: Pelton, Francis and Kaplan turbines

Sources: Voith Siemens; Andritz


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15Hydropower today

For low heads and large flows, Kaplan turbines, apropeller-type water turbine with adjustable blades,dominate (Figure 6, right). Kaplan and Francisturbines, like other propeller-type turbines, capturethe kinetic energy and the pressure difference of thefluid between entrance and exit of the turbine.

Classification according to installed capacity (inmegawatts or MW) has led to concepts such assmall hydro and large hydro, but there is noworldwide consensus on size categories. Differentcountries or groups of countries def ine smallhydro differently (from below 1.5 MW in Swedento below 50 MW in China), so small-scale hydro

spans a very wide range of plants (Table 3). Thisbroad spectrum relates to countries' local energyand resource management needs. Some haveeven used terms such as mini-hydro, micro-hydro and pico-hydro, but again with no widelyaccepted definitions. Indeed HPP capacities rangefrom several watts (W) for the smallest individualinstallations, to tens of gigawatts (GW) or billionswatts for the largest. HPP of capacity lower than10 MW are estimated to represent about 10% of theglobal HPP capacity. While most small-scale HPPseem to be RoR, there are also quite large RoR HPP.

Table 3: Definitions of small-scale hydro in different count

CountrySmall-scale hydro as defined by

capacity (MW)Reference

Brazil


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Denmark is the country showing the highestshare (24%) of wind power in its electricitygeneration. It is a flat land with no opportunitiesfor hydropower or PSP. However, it is close toSweden and Norway, which have considerablehydropower potential. Over decades, severalhigh-voltage direct-current (HVDC) connectingcables have been built between these countries,as well as with Germany, the Netherlands andPoland (Figure 7).

The 240-km long Skagerrak 1-3 lines between

Denmark and Norway, including 127-km longunderwater cables, have an overall capacityof 1 050 MW. Start ing in the 1970s, they were

designed to avoid the building of a thermalplant in Norway, which would have beenneeded only during very dry years, while givingDenmark more peaking capacity. At present,a new cable, Skagerrak 4, is felt necessary tointegrate more wind power into the Danishpower system and to enhance the efficiencyand competitiveness of the electricity market(Energinet, 2012). It will add about 700 MW ofexchange capacity by 2014.

Box 1: Hydro backing wind power: the Denmark-Norway connection

Figure 7: The Scandinavia - Northern Europe interconnections

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

NORWAY

SWEDEN

POLANDGERMANY

RUSSIA

NorNe

d DENMARK

NETHERLANDS

UNITED

KINGDOM

North SeaBaltic Sea

Skag

erra

k

LATVIA

LITHUANIA

Balticcable

Kontek

Konti-S

kan


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17Hydropower today

z Reactive power compensation and voltage

support. Hydropower can control reactive power,thus ensuring that power flows from generationto load. It also helps maintain voltage throughinjecting or absorbing reactive power by meansof synchronous or static compensation.

Run-of-river HPP, when not downstream of reservoirHPP, does not provide back-up and reserve, butis nevertheless able to provide, at least in part,the other ancillary services mentioned here. Asvariable (though reasonably predictable) and non-manageable renewable energy, RoR HPP is usuallyconsidered part of the base load in electricity grid,while reservoir HPP play a signif icantly larger role

for peak, shoulder and base loads. PSP are mostlyused as peak load generating capacities.

The enabling role of hydropower

The flexibility of HPP, especially reservoir plants,and its many contributions to ancillary servicesdetermine its excellent ability to balance thevariability of some other renewables (Box 1).Recent studies have thoroughly examined thesecomplementary factors. IEA Wind (2011) shows

that addressing the balancing impacts of windintegration needs to be done in the context of theentire system, with all of its load and generationresources, and not in isolation (i.e. not one windpower plant balanced by one hydro plant toproduce a flat output). Depending on the relativecapacities of the wind and hydropower facilities,wind integration may necessitate changes in theway hydropower facilities operate to providebalancing, reserves or energy storage. Thesechanges may affect operation, maintenance,revenue, water storage and the ability of the hydrofacility to meet its primary purposes. On the otherhand, integration with wind could create neweconomic opportunities for the hydro system.

Non-power constraints on the hydropower system,such as irrigation water deliveries, environmentalregulation (e.g. fish passage), recreation, and floodcontrol tend to reduce the ability of hydropower tointegrate variable renewables. Limitations on flowvariability, currently in place in some jurisdictions,are a very important constraint, particularly asthey may affect fluctuations in tailwater(downstream) levels.


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18 Technology Roadmaps Hydropower18

This section first considers the technical potentialfor hydropower, then short-term deploymentperspectives, and, based on IEA modelling,deployment perspectives till 2050. These arethen detailed for most regions of the world. Afterelaborating on the broader context of renewableenergy deployment, the text considers the specificsof pump-storage hydropower, as well as itsdeployment perspectives. Finally, the contributionof hydropower deployment to CO2 emissionreductions till 2050 is assessed.

Technical potential

The technical potential for hydropower is usually

estimated at around 15 000 TWh/yr, or about 35%of a theoretical potential derived from the totalannual runoff of precipitation (e.g. IJHD 2010). This

Figure 8: Regional hydropower technical potential and percentageof undeveloped technical potential (2009)

Source: IPCC, 2011, based on IJHD, 2010.

*Undeveloped (%)

Installed (%)

388GW

61%*1 659TWh/yr

338GW

47%*1 021TWh/yr

283GW

92%*1 174TWh/yr

2 037GW

80%*7 681TWh/yr

67GW

80%*185TWh/yr

608GW

74%*2 856TWh/yr

Vision for hydropower deployment

technical potential would require a global capacity of3 750 GW at 4 000 full load hours. The percentage ofundeveloped technical potential is highest in Africa(92%), followed by Asia (80%), Australia/Oceania(80%) and Latin America (74%) (Figure 8). Evenin the most industrialised parts of the world, theundeveloped potential remains significant, at 61% inNorth America and 47% in Europe.

Short-term deployment

Global installed hydropower capacities have beengrowing in recent years at an average of 24.2 GWper year, and reached 1 067 GW at the end of2011 (including pumped storage capacities). Total

capacity is expected to reach 1 300 GW in 2017(IEA, 2012b) (Figure 9). Given the long lead times ofHPP development, these figures represent capacitiesin construction virtually certain to come on line.


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19Vision for hydropower deployment

Long-term deployment

The vision of the long-term deployment ofhydropower in this roadmap is based on the2C Scenario of the IEA Energy TechnologyPerspectives 2012 (ETP 2DS). This describes howenergy technologies across all energy sectors may

collectively achieve the goal of reducing annualCO2 emissions to half that of 2009 (IEA, 2012c).The ETP model uses cost optimisation to identifyleast-cost mixes of energy technologies and fuels to

meet energy demand, given constraints such as theavailability of natural resources.

Figure 9: Expected mid-term evolution of hydropower installed capacity (GW)

Source: IEA , 2012b.

Figure 10: Hydroelectricity generation till 2050in the Hydropower Roadmap vision (TWh)

Sources: IEA, 2 012c and MME data.

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

CanadaUnited StatesChinaRoW

GW

RussiaBrazil

Asia PacificAfricaMiddle East

Europe and EurasiaCentral and South AmericasNorth America

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

0

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The2DS estimates a global installed hydropowercapacity by 2050 of 1 947 GW, nearly twice thecurrent level (IEA, 2012c). Generation of hydro-electricity would near 7 100 TWh, a doubling ofcurrent generation. Hydros share of total electricitygeneration would be roughly constant. The growthof hydropower generation is largely focused inemerging economies (Figure 10). In this roadmap,numbers for Brazil have been aligned on thecountrys own forecasts.

In the baseline or 6C Scenario (6DS), despite anincrease in absolute figures to over 5 700 TWh,hydroelectricity generation would continue todecline as a share of total electricity generation,following a long historical trend. By contrast, in the2DS the share of hydropower would rebound beforedeclining again after 2035, as a result of more rapidgrowth of this clean energy resource and a slowergrowth of the total generation due to increasedenergy efficiency (Figure 11).

Figure 11: Historical hydroelectricity generation and projections in ETP 6DSand 2DS, in TWh and shares of total electricity generation

Sources: IEA, 2 012c and IEA analysis.

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

TWh

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Hydro 2DS Hydro 6DS Share hydro 2DS Share hydro 6DS

The IPCC Special Report on Renewable EnergySources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN)

(IPCC 2011) assessed the scenarios literaturefor hydropower and found that deployment ofhydropower could reach as high as 9 770 TWhin 2050. This is the highest forecast based on the164 scenarios assessed and applying the mostambitious emissions reduction targets. The mediancontribution of hydropower in the stabilisationscenarios is about 5 300 T Wh, increasing to6 400 TWh at the 75th percentile. The hydropowerindustry forecasts a hydropower market potentialof more than 8 700 TWh/y to be reached in 2050(IJHD 2010).

Regional scales

Africa

The African continent has the largest proportionof untapped hydropower potential, with only8% currently developed. Most of this potentiallies in Africas many regional and cross-boundaryriver basins, including the Congo, Nile, Niger andZambezi rivers.

Regional instability remains one of the mainimpediments to development in Africa, especiallyfor large projects requiring extensive cross-bordertransmission. Grand Inga on the Congo River,

potentially the largest hydro development in the


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world, has suffered many false starts. The necessaryinfrastructure to generate and transfer poweris immense and will affect a major part of thecontinent.

Regulatory challenges to this and other largeprojects include the prevalence of state monopolies,lack of integration of water and power policies, andgrid access.

In contrast to the large project s, many smallerprojects are currently being successfully developed.Resource development in Africa is driving muchof this with the number of independent powerproducers (IPPs) increasing in some countries. Manyresource companies are also looking to developtheir own hydropower to reduce their dependenceon fossil fuels in mining operations.

While the development of large project s willremain a challenge for Africa in the foreseeablefuture, smaller hydropower projects are easierto fund, have smaller social impacts and shorterproject development cycles. In conjunctionwith increased investment in the strengtheningand maintenance of regional distribution andtransmission networks, these initiatives can havesignificant impact on the short- to medium-term

energy shortages on the continent.

This roadmap foresees a total hydropower capacityin Africa of 88 GW by 2050, with hydroelectricitygeneration reaching 350 TWh.

Central and South America

Hydropower development in Central and SouthAmerica has been remarkable, especially sincethe 1970s, reaching 150 GW of installed capacity.About half the electricity produced in the region iswater borne. This strongly contributes to the region

having the cleanest energy mix in the world (26%of primary energy supply from renewable sources),particularly with respect to electricity production.The available but unexploited hydropower potentialis approximately 540 GW, distributed among almostall countries of the region (see Appendixes).

Hydropower projects play a major part in theexpansion plans of many countries in the region.In addition to economic, environmental andtechnical factors this is due most importantly to thecountries advanced energy planning. Generally,the conditions of hydropower development are

favorable in Latin America and the Caribbean. Many

countries have established legislation in this area,with guidelines for negotiation and consultationwith affected communities.

Historically, the Brazilian electric generation systemwas developed largely based on hydropower dueto the large potential and favorable economics. Thecurrent hydropower generation system compriseslarge reservoirs, capable of multi-year regulation,arranged in complex cascades distributedover several river basins. The interconnectedtransmission system was developed to takeadvantage of the hydrological synergies, and acomplementary thermal system mitigates possibleunfavorable hydrological conditions. In 2010,

hydropower provided 78% of the installed capacityof 103 GW (MME/EPE 2011). Brazil's 10-yearEnergy Plan 2020 (PDE 2020) predict s hydropowercapacity increasing to about 115 GW. Althoughthe contribution of hydropower to the electricitygeneration will fall from 80.2% to 73%, the share ofrenewable resources will be kept roughly constant,as a result of growing wind power and cogenerationusing sugarcane bagasse.

Other South American countries that are activelydeveloping hydropower include:

z Chile: by 2021, some ten hydroelectric projectsare planned, which would increase the installedcapacity by 1 917 MW. In addition, the Aysenhydropower complex, which would provide1 600 MW, is expected to be incorporated into thesystem after 2021.

z Colombia: the expansion plan from 2011 to2025 aims to increase the installed capacity by7 914 MW, of which 6 088 MW will be attributedto HPP projects (including the Ituango powerplant with a capacity of 3 000 MW).

z Costa Rica: the country is committed to beingcarbon neutral in 2021; the development ofhydropower is essential to achieve this goal. By2021 the installed generation capacity is due toincrease by 1 613 MW, of which 1 471 MW will befrom hydropower sources and the rest based onwind energy conversion.

z Ecuador: the government plans to add 4 820 MWof total installed generation capacity by 2032, ofwhich 2 590 MW (54%) will be HPP. The CocaCodo Sinclair HPP project, to supply 1 500 MW, isdue to start generating in 2016.

z Peru: a significant increase in hydropower capacityis expected, with the installation of 1 153 MW ofhydropower plants, in a total capacity increase of3 163 MW.


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Latin America and the Caribbean have relevantexperience in the use of water resources shared byseveral countries, illustrating exemplary regionalenergy integration. Major projects in the basin ofRio de la Plata have taken advantage of two majorrivers (Parana and Uruguay). Bi-national hydropowerprojects not only provide energy benefits to partnercountries of the enterprises, but have also driventhe development of areas of influence near thepower plants. Resulting programmes have providedschemes of social support to local communities,protection of species and the environment, and thedevelopment of tourism recreation and productiveactivities. Itaipu Binational, a joint venture betweenBrazil and Paraguay (with a nominal capacity of

14 GW) supports a social-environmental initiativefocused on conservation of natural resources, qualityand quantity of water, and on peoples quality of lifeunder a programme called Cultivating Good Water.The programme also includes a technology park thatis becoming an R&D reference centre for many cleantechnologies (e.g. biogas, fuel cells, electric vehicles),and an educational initiative through the Universityof the Latin American Integration (UNILA). Regardingfuture development, the Garabi-Panambi projectwill be implemented in the Uruguay River betweenArgentina and Brazil with a capacity of 2 200 MW,

distributed in a complex of two hydropower plantscoming into operation in 2020. In the same basin ofthe Rio de la Plata, the Corpus Christi project (with adesign capacity of 2 900 MW) will be a joint project ofArgentina and Paraguay.

On the basis of the 2DS, this roadmap foresees a totalcapacity in central and south America of 240 GWby 2050, of which 130 GW will be in Brazil alone.Hydroelectricity generation would reach 1 190 TWh,again more than half in Brazil.

The off icial Brazilian projections for 2030 and 2050

are significantly higher than those of the 2DS, at164 GW and 827 TWh for 2030, and 180 GW and905 TWh for 2050. These are based on differentassumptions for economic growth and electricityconsumption (MME/EPE, 2007, 2011).

North America

The US Department of Energy (US DOE) aims todouble hydropower capacity through upgradesto, and optimisation of, the existing facilities,powering non-powered dams and developingsmall hydropower facilities. A memorandum ofunderstanding (MoU) for hydropower was signed in

March 2010 between the US Department of Energy,Department of Interior and Army Corps of Engineerswith a focus on increasing generation from federalhydropower facilities and reducing environmentalimpacts.

Some regions of the United States are increasingvariable renewable penetration by more than30%, typically through wind power and increasingamounts of solar photovoltaics. Under aggressiveclean energy deployment scenarios such as the15% to 18% solar penetration target s of US DOEsSunshot and 20% Wind by 2030 goals installation of PSP and modernisation of the existingreservoir hydropower will be critical for integrating

growing amounts of variable renewable energy.

In addition to laying out a strategic vision fromwhich to pursue zero-carbon clean energy fromhydropower, the United States is assessing thepotential impacts of climate change on hydropowerproduction from federal facilities. Its ClimateChange Assessment Reportis reassessed everyfive years to estimate the hydrological impacts ofclimate change, and their resulting influence on thecapabilities of US hydropower.

Canada is already producing about 60% of its

electricity through hydropower. The countrycurrently exports around 40 TWh per year to theUnited States, about 1% of the US electricity supply.Canada is entering a significant period of newhydropower development. A Canadian HydropowerAssociation study estimates there remains 163 GWof undeveloped hydropower potential, more thantwice the current capacity of about 74 GW. Thispotential is distributed evenly across the country. Atpresent, 14.5 GW of new hydropower facilities areunder construction or in advanced planning statesand expected to come online over the next 10 to15 years.

This roadmap foresees a total hydropower capacityin North Amer ica of 215 GW by 2050, withhydroelectricity reaching 830 TWh.

Asia

China is experiencing an impressive deploymentof new hydropower capacities. Its hydropowergeneration jumped from less than 400 TWh in2005 to an estimated 735 TWh by 2011, and isexpected to increase to almost 1 100 TWh by 2017.

Chinese hydropower generation will likely pass the1 500 TWh mark by 2035 or before (IEA, 2012c).In the next 20 to 30 years, hydropower will remain


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Europe is at the forefront of the development ofnew PSP, either open-loop or pump-back. Germany,for example, which has very litt le conventionalhydropower, already has about 7 GW of PSP andwill add 2.5 GW by 2020. Within the same timeframe, France will add 3 GW to its current 5 GWand Portugal will quadruple its 1 GW capacity. Italy,Spain, Greece, Austria and Switzerland also planto develop new PSP. According to their NationalRenewable Energy Plans, EU countries will increasetheir PSP capacities from 16 GW in 2005 to 35 GWby 2020. Storage volumes, however, differ markedlybetween countries. In Spain, PSP can be used tooffset several-day periods of low generation fromrenewables; in the United Kingdom, storage is

limited to shifting generation by several hours tobetter match demand.

European islands, such as the Spanish El Hierro orthe Greek Ikaria, now host the first PSP directlycoupled with wind power. Larger islands may havelarger ambitions. Ireland, with many U-shapedglacial valleys close to its windy west coast isconsidering an Okinawa-style,4 seawater PSPincluding a dam that would close one of thesevalleys. The 700 MW base, 2.2 GW peak loadpower station would be fed by 18 directly coupled100-MW wind farms. It would send power to thenational grid, and export to the United Kingdomand Europe.

This roadmap foresees a hydropower capacity inEurope of 310 GW by 2050, with hydroelectricityreaching 915 TWh.

Russia and Eurasia

Of the current 47 GW of hydropower capacity inRussia, almost 10 GW are from units more than 40

years old, 7 GW are under construction and 12 GWmore are planned. Under Russias Energy Strategyto 2020, the share of hydropower generation withinthe energy mix is to remain at it s current level ofabout 20%.

In Tajikistan, 5 GW of hydropower capacity arecurrently in operation, providing 95% of thecountry's electricity, although 40% of it is absorbedin aluminum production. The identified potential isvast: 14 plants of a total capacity 18.7 GW could bedeveloped on the Panj River alone. Kyrgyzstan alsohas a vast potential, of which only about 10% has

4. The first demonstration of seawater pumped storage worldwide wasthe 30 MW Yanbaru project in Okinawa.

been developed so far. Better regional co-operationand greater support from the internationalcommunity may be required for any significantdevelopment.

This roadmap foresees a hydropower capacityin Russia and Eurasia of 145 GW by 2050, withhydropower reaching 510 TWh, of which almost75% will be in Russia.

The broader context ofrenewable deployment

It is interesting to relate the projections given above

to the more general projections of the fuel mix inpower generation under the various scenarios ofETP2012, as this clarifies the twin roles of hydropower providing clean, renewable electricity and enablingthe grid integration of variable renewables. The2DS shows a strong trend toward diversification:renewables together provide 57% of electricity.The most variable renewable sources wind, solarphotovoltaics (PV) and marine energies increasethe most, contributing to 22% of the total supply.

ETP 2012 also provides variants of the 2DS. Oneof particular relevance for renewable deployment

is called the 2DS Hi-REN (high renewables). Inthis scenario, an expanded role of renewablescompensates for a lower deployment of nuclearenergy and a delay in the development of carboncapture and storage (CCS) technologies (Figure 12).The share of variable renewables (solar PV andwind) would increase from 22% to 30%, making theflexibility and storage capabilities of hydropowereven more valuable.

Reservoir hydropower, when available, canintegrate variable renewables thanks to itsflexibility. Where the potential for reservoir

hydropower is limited, pumped storage mayrepresent the most cost-effective option to avoidcurtailing significant amounts of renewables whenproduction exceeds need.


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of recent plants. The Kannagawa PSP in Japan wascommissioned in 2005 with one 470 MW pumpturbine; five more pumps will be come on line in

the coming years. PSP already plays a growing roleto back wind power in several countries, such asGermany, Spain and Portugal (Box 2).

Portugal must address the variability of windpower, which provides 17% of its electr icitybut has delivered up to 70% of all electricity ina single day (13 November 2011). The IberianPeninsula has great hydropower potential butpoor electricity connections with neighbouringcountries. Portugals currently installed HPPcapacity totals 5 180 MW, which it intends

to almost double by 2020. It also has about1 245 MW pump-back PSPs, which it intends toquadruple in the same time frame, to supportits continuous wind power deployment. Ofthe 1 959 MW of added hydropower capacityunder construction, 1 367 MW includecapacity for pumping.

Box 2: Hydro facilitating wind power in Portugal

The need for greater flexibility, which historicallyarose from the rigidity of some thermal powerplants, is driving this expansion in many countries.This is only in part technical; economically,operating heavily capitalised plant (originallydesigned for base load) to accommodate variationsin demand dramatically cuts its profitability. Too

rapid and frequent variations may create costlywear and tear, and reduce the plants technicallifetime or require costly repairs. Yet large amountsof variable renewables will only increase this needfor flexibility.

The economics of PSP have paradoxicallydeteriorated in the last few years in many countries(see section on economics, below), slowingdeployment. Three years ago, the global capacitywas expected to exceed 200 GW by 2014 (Ingram,2009) but this level is now unlikely to be achievedfor several more years.

Long-term deployment

Assessing the long-term global deploymentof pumped storage hydropower is complex.Current visions of a very large-scale deploymentof renewables with minimal energy-related CO2emissions tend to assume that covering demandpeaks and ensuring electricity generation duringlong periods of very low wind or sun would bestbe achieved by combining some electricity storagewith a large base of conventional, cheap peaking

plants with quite small load factors ( IEA, 2011b). Infact, hydropower capacities might be adapted torespond to this need, i.e. increasing the capacities of

existing or new-built HPPs might enable their morefrequent use as peaking plants. PSP provides thelargest electricity storage volumes and capacities,but projects are capital intensive, and investmentsneed to be made where the capacity created will beprofitable (IEA, 2012c).

A simplified approach builds on ETP 2012, assumingthat PSP remains the backbone of electricity storagecapabilities. The ratio of current PSP capacity tototal electric capacity very much depends on thecharacteristics of each electricity system: it is verylow where hydropower dominates, but high in lessflexible systems. PSPs currently represent about 2%of capacities in North America, 3% in China, 5% inEurope, and 11% in Japan, and these proportionsare increasing. A conservative approach would be toincrease only the lowest of these percentages, andonly slightly. This low estimate (Table 4) wouldlead to about 400 GW by 2050 close to a trebling ofcurrent PSP capacities.

The Hi-REN variant, which in some regions(notably Europe and the United States) leads to agreater proportion of variable renewables whilenot significantly increasing the balancing role ofreservoir hydropower, would likely call for morePSP. This would lead to about 700 GW PSP by 2050,a quintupling of current PSP capacities, while stillkeeping the percentages of PSP under todays levelin Japan. Noting that some experts envision evenhigher deployment levels of PSP (e.g. Lemprire,

2010), this roadmap suggests a range of 400 GW to700 GW PSP capacities by 2050.


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Contribution to

CO2

abatement

The deployment of sustainable hydropower asenvisaged in this roadmap would by 2050 avoidthe annual emission of 1 billion tonnes CO

2

in comparison with the 6DS ofETP 2012. Thisrepresents 2.4% of the total CO2 savings of the 2DS,and 6.2% of the savings from the power sector.

The impact of hydropower deployment on climatechange mitigation is more significant than thesenumbers suggest, however. First, there is alreadyvery significant hydropower deployment in the6DS, as this is the most mature and lowest-cost

renewable energy technology. Without the 75%increase in hydropower generation of the 6DS, andassuming substitution with a mix of gas and coal,

by 2050 the already considerable emissions in thisscenario would swell by an additional 2 billion tCO2per year. Further, reservoir and pumped-storagehydropower are instrumental in facilitating themanagement of increasing amounts of wind powerand solar PV electricit y, and the associated CO2emission reductions.

Table 4: Expected PSP capacities in 2050

Note: For both low and high estimates, the first two lines indicate the percentage of variable renewable energy, and of hydroelectricity,relative to total energy in the electricit y mix, as resulting from the 2DS or the Hi-REN modelling; building on this information asexplained in the main tex t, the third line shows this roadmap's assumption of the possible share of pump-storage capacities overtotal electric capacities. The fourth line expresses these results in GW.

China UnitedStates

Europe Japan Rest ofworld

Total

Low estimate (2DS)

VRE % total energy 21% 24% 43% 18%

Hydro % total energy 14% 6% 13% 12%

PSP/total capacity 4% 4% 6% 11% 2%

GW 119 58 91 35 109 412

High estimate (Hi-REN)

VRE % total energy 34% 37% 48% 33%

Hydro % total energy 15% 6% 11% 13%

PSP/total capacity 5% 8% 10% 12% 3%GW 179 139 188 39 164 700


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Historically, hydropower development has hadmany drivers, dependent on economic and socialcircumstances in various regions of the world.Meeting future scenarios, as outlined in this

roadmap, requires the application of internationallyrecognised environmental and social standards. Themost important barriers and enabling factors areshown on Table 5.

Sustainable hydropower development

Table 5: Possible barriers and enabling factors for hydropower development

Barriers Enabling factors

Environmental issuesDevelopment based on following internationally accepted sustainabilityapproaches or protocols. Integrated river basin approach.

Socio-economic issues Valuation of benefits, market reforms.

Public acceptance Expanded scope of hydropower to include multi-purpose benefits.

Financing Innovat ive f inancing schemes with public risk-mit igating instruments.

Environmental issues

Environmental issues identified in the developmentof hydropower include:

z safety issues;z water use and water quality impacts;z impacts on migratory species and biodiversity;z implementing hydropower projects in areas with

low or no anthropogenic activity;

z reservoir sedimentation and debris; and

z lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.The question of the size of projects has sometimesbeen associated with the importance of theirenvironmental impacts this issue is brieflyaddressed below, as well as the environmentalissues associated with pumped storage hydropower.

Safety issues

Hydropower is very safe today. Some dam failuresoccurred before 1920 in Europe and North Americaand before 1980 in Asia; most of these were storage,mine waste or diversion dams that did not havehydropower facilities. Losses of life have been veryrare in the last 30 years, whereas the populationat risk has been significantly reduced through therouting and mitigation of extreme flood events.

Water use and water

quality impacts

As hydropower uses water as its fuel, by runningit through turbines and discharging the identical

volume into a water body further downstream, thehydropower production process in itself does notconsume water. However, addit ional evaporationmay occur from the water stored upstream, whichhas recently been proposed as water consumptionof hydropower. A methodology to quantif yadditional evaporation caused by water storedfor hydropower is required, as evaporation willtake place even in the absence of the hydropowerfacility. As the water stored will typically be formultiple purposes, a methodology is also requiredto apportion water consumption to each of thepurposes. In 2010, the International HydropowerAssociation (IHA) initiated a first scoping reporton the topic and surveyed its membershipon evaporation measurements. The work toestablish the evaporation impact of water storageinfrastructure is on-going (especially for water-scarce catchments). The method to allocate lossesto each of the services from such water storage willbe addressed in future work.

The impact of hydropower plants on water quality isvery site specific and depends on the type of plant,how it is operated and the water quality before

it reaches the plant. RoR plants are often used toimprove dissolved oxygen levels and retain floatingdebris for disposal. Where there is significant waste


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29Sustainable hydropower development

entering the reservoir from upstream sources,managing the water quality in the reser voir may bevery challenging.

Dissolved oxygen (DO) levels are an importantaspect of reservoir water quality. Large, deepreservoirs may have reduced DO levels in bottomwaters, where watersheds yield moderate to heavyamounts of organic sediments. For projects withbottom intakes, this low DO water may createproblems both within and downstream from thereservoir, including possible damage to aquatichabitat. This can be mitigated by multi-level waterintakes in reservoirs, and by new turbine designs(see Technology Improvements).

Impacts on migratory species

and biodiversity

Older dams with hydropower facilities wereoften developed without due consideration formigrating fish. Many of these older plants havebeen refurbished to allow both upstream anddownstream migration capability. New purpose-built fish ways and steps reduce the barriers to fishmovement in the altered river course. Extensiveresearch has been carried out to reduce mortalityas fish pass downstream through the hydraulicturbines, leading to significant improvements inturbine design. In recent years, minimum gaprunner5 (MGR) technology has been documented toachieve fish survival rates in excess of 95% for largeaxial flow units in the field. New designs, such asthe Alden turbine, expand the range of fish-friendlyunits to smaller turbine applications.

Hydropower plants also modify downstream flowregimes, influencing sediment-carrying capacityand erosion. These changes may significantlyaffect natural aquatic and terrestrial habitats in the

river and along its shores. Sudden water releasesconstitute a risk for wildlife and humans. Allthese effects can be mitigated by thorough flow-management programmes (IPCC, 2011).

Hydropower development may also affectspecies other than f ish, including mammals,birds and invertebrates, although the changesare not necessarily negative. The assessments ofhydropower potential should address these issuesin the early planning phases. The natural value ofcertain areas might be such that they must be usedwith great care or left untouched (IPCC, 2011).

5. The runner in a hydropower turbine is the rotating element.

Implementing hydropower

projects in areas with low or

no anthropogenic activity

The creation of reservoir HPP or ROR plants ofteninvolves large public works in remote areas, andthis activity may last for several years. Hundredsor thousands of workers need to live nearby, andthis usually requires large settlements for workersand their families with supporting infrastructureincluding schools, places of worship, recreationalfacilities and hospitals.

The impacts and implications of these activitiesstrongly depend on the existing level of

anthropogenic activities. In inhabited areas theymay have impacts on population, which are furtherdescribed in the section on socio-economic issues.Nevertheless, sustainable hydropower developmentcan also be used to foster social and economicdevelopment, especially for local communities.

In areas with low or no anthropogenic activitythe primary goal is to minimize the impacts onthe environment. An innovative approach toallow the implementation of HPP projects in areaswith low or no anthropogenic activity is being

developed in Brazil, especially in river basinslocated in the northern region. Referred to as theoffshore platform HPP approach (Melo et al.,2012), it aims to keep the impact restricted tothe plant site, with minimum interference overforest domains at dams and reservoir areas, e.g.by avoiding the development of villages or citiesafter the construction periods. Plant constructionexcludes large and permanent settlements forworkers; auxiliary access and roads are reducedto strict minimum; forest and affected areas arerecovered during construct ion; and the plant willbe as much as possible remotely-operated by

using automation technologies and a small numberof staff in turn-over labour periods, similarly tooffshore platforms for the oil and gas industry.Therefore, in this approach the anthropogenicfootprint impact on the project area will be reducedand the offshore platform hydropower plantwill be an enabler of permanent environmentalconservation.

Reservoir sedimentation

and debris

All rivers transport sediments, such as sands,gravels, silt and clay particles, which tend to bedeposited when water reaches a reservoir. This may


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The Sustainability Assessment Protocolis used as aframework to produce a sustainability profi le for ahydropower project. It enables all stakeholders tobecome better informed on the sustainability profileof a project, and to develop strategies to addressany weaknesses (IHA, 2011).

River basin approach

A key aspect of sustainability is the formulationof alternatives for the partition of the total waterhead of a river basin, carried out in the hydropowerinventory studies. The hydropower inventory is

of paramount importance because the decisionis taken not only for a single project but for thewhole series of projects that can be developedin a river basin. These can include power systemconfiguration, social and environmental aspectsand river basin water resources plans. Such anapproach is documented in Manual for HydropowerInventory Studies of River Basins (MME-CEPEL, 2007),under the sponsorship of the Brazilian Ministry ofMines and Energy, funded by the World Bank andcontracted to CEPEL, the Brazilian Electric EnergyResearch Center.

Brazil has developed structured planningand operation procedures for hydropowerdevelopment based on a set of methodologiesand studies, which interact with the planningprocedures of the energy sector as a whole.In these procedures, socio-environmentalaspects are considered from the first phaseof expansion planning and are continuously

monitored throughout the project life-cycle.The physical targets and the expansionschedules are established with a view to futureauctions for the purchase of energy fromnew generation developments and for newtransmission facilities. The development of newhydroelectric power plants involves five distinctstages: Est imate of hydroelectric potential;inventory, feasibility; basic design; andexecutive design. In each stage, engineeringstudies are balanced by assessments of energybenefits and socio-environmental impacts.

In the inventory stage, the Manual forHydropower Inventory Studies outlines theprocess to balance energy generation, socialand environmental impacts (positive andnegative) and multiple uses of water. All thesite selection alternatives (i.e. alternatives forthe partition of the total water head of a riverbasin) are analysed and the optimum is selectedaccording to a basic criterion of maximisingeconomic energy efficiency while minimizingany negative socio-environmental impacts,taking into account the positive impacts from the

implementation of the hydropower plants in thebasin. A computerised decision support system,

SINV (CEPEL, 2008, 2011), was developed toassist the inventory studies. The manual and theSINV system have been used in several Brazilianinventory studies, e.g. the Teles Pires river basin,in Amazon region, and the bi-national studyof Uruguay river basin inventory (Brazil andArgentina border), among others.

As part of project development, the purchase ofenergy is based on a public auction procedure.This requires a preliminary environmentallicense or previous license (LP), whichitself is based on the environmental impactassessment (EIA) Report. This LP includes publichearings and water use rights. The auctionwinner, prior to project implementation, has toundertake further environmental studies andmeet all requirements prior to obtaining theenvironmental operating license.

In operation, generation schedule is

co-ordinated with the other generationplants in the country by the national electricsystem operator in order to obtain the bestuse of the national hydropower system.This co-ordination is done using a chain ofoptimization models with different degrees ofdetail in system representation, which are alsoused in the expansion planning studies of theelectrical sector. These are under continuousdevelopment (Maceira et. al, 2002, 2008) for anintegrated and sustainable expansion planningof the Brazilian energy system and, have beenused not only by the Brazilian electrical sectorentities but also by utilities and agents.

Box 5: The Brazilian approach: from river basin inventoriesto integrated energy planning


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35Sustainable hydropower development

An example of a broad sustainability approach isthe Brazilian Hydropower Practices for AchievingSustainability, where environmental, social andeconomic impacts are carefully considered from thefirst phase of planning and continuously monitoredthroughout a projects life cycle (Box 5). In addition totechnical and economic issues, it addresses the use ofsustainability criteria to provide clear direction on howto maximise the positive and minimise the negativesocio-economic impacts.

River basin planning is particularly complex forregional projects requiring bilateral and oftenmultilateral inter-governmental agreements. Anintegrated approach is essential: an example isthe Rapid Basin-wide Hydropower SustainableDevelopment Tool (RSAT), developed in the lowerMekong River Basin by the Asian Development Bank(ADB), Mekong River Commission (MRC) and World

Wide Fund for Nature (W WF).

Finally, it is vital for industrial organisations involvedto have well-funded and competent environmentand social divisions. Human capacity on the groundis critical for a scheme to be sustainable: once theproject is under construction, only the experienceand ability of environmental and social staff canmake and implement the correct decisions in day-to-day project management.

Multi-purpose development

Most large dams in the world today are not

built for hydropower generation (Figure 14).Hydropower dams with storage reservoirs provideadditional services, and in many cases wouldnot have been justified without them, especiallywhere there was initial opposition. The ThreeGorges Dam on the Yangtze River in China, whilethe largest hydropower generator in the worldto date, was justified primarily for the significantflood protection it provides for communities andindustries downstream. Only this reduction in lifesafety risk for downstream populations could helpto justify the large resettlement programme in the

upstream flooded areas. Facilitating navigationand irrigation for agriculture purposes were alsoimportant determinants, and more recently,recreational activities and tourism are adding to theoverall project benefits. However, the multiplicityof benefits does not prevent the design andmanagement of the reservoirs from being subjectto trade-offs, as not all benefits can usually bemaximised simultaneously.

Figure 14: Major dams under development today of which60% are multi-purpose

This map is without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.

Source: IJHD, 2010.


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water resource itself is crit ical to ensure that waterrights for different productive uses are allocated in atransparent manner involving as many stakeholdersas possible.

Elaborating multi-purpose projects can be verycomplex, especially where they are large and/ortrans-border issues. One approach is to undertakea strategic environmental assessment (SEA),which allows any given project to be comparedwith potential alternatives, covering all relevantenvironmental, social and economic factors (Box 6).

The energy-water nexus

Today there are many and varied demands on theworlds water resources. The need for potable watersupply and irrigation have to be fulfilled along withits use for hydropower, industry, cooling of thermalpower plants, navigation, fisheries and recreation,all within the context of ecosystem integrity andwater resource and flood management. Thusthe future of hydropower development hasto be balanced with social and environmentalresponsibility, integrated resource management andsound business practice.

Water and energy are closely linked, par ticularlyin hydropower, where the generation of electricityis an integral part of water management (Granit

and Lindstrm, 2011). Considerations driving theenergy-water nexus are also tied to sustainable

development. For hydropower they include:z rapid population growth in many regions of the

world and associated economic development isincreasing demand for electricity and pressure onfreshwater resources;

z multi-purpose hydropower schemes, providingirrigation and flood control as well as othernon-energy benefits, can enhance regionaldevelopment;

z hydropower development can be integrated withwater supply and agriculture;

z

hydropower generation is usually a domesticsource of energy, and with its reliance on water cancombine energy security and water security; and

The strategic environment assessment (SEA) isan instrument to analyse impacts of hydropowerdevelopment early in the planning process. Itcan be used to help address risks, challenges,mitigation strategies, opportunities and costs.

An SEA does not replace the traditionalfeasibility study and environmental and social

impact assessments that are pre-requisitesfor project approval. Rather, it is an umbrellaassessment to ensure that a project movinginto the final approval and financing stageis compared with all alternative options formeeting needs in the country or region. Forsuch a comparison, social and environmental

factors are considered to be of the same level ofimportance as technical and economic factors.

There is an increasing trend to involve theprivate sector in the development and financingof new hydropower, and the SEA processcan provide an overall perspective of theopportunities and risks. This is particularly

important as hydropower projects are usuallyperceived as high risk from a political andfinancial perspective. The SEA process outlineskey risks and opportunities for different optionsas well as mitigation options to be furtheranalysed in detailed feasibility study and projectdesign (Granit, King and Noel, 2011).

Box 6: Strategic environment assessment of multi-purposehydropower development

The basic approach of planning and managementfor multi-purpose development, at river basinif appropriate, is to find the balance betweenthe values of water for use in different sectorsof society, recognising the need to maintain theunderlying ecosystem. Key users of water includeenergy production, domestic and industrial supply,irrigation, navigation, and water for ecosystemservices. Cost-effective hydropower productionhas a high economic value in many river basins:it can contribute to both benefits to society andrevenue to support ecosystem management andenhancement. The underlying monitoring of the


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z requirements for hydropower plant equipmentand its controls, modifications and decision-support software, to enable rapid integration;

z the provision of water management services; andz socio-economic impacts of hydropower

development.

Hydropower is the only large-scale, cost-efficientstorage technology available to support electricalsystems. Conventional reservoir hydro projectsare even less costly than pumped storage plants(Eurelectric, 2011).

Economics of pumped

storage hydropowerExisting PSP get most revenues from the differencebetween peak and off-peak prices the price atwhich owners sell energy, and the price at whichthey bought it. For a project to be viable, theserevenues, minus efficiency losses and possiblegrid fees, must cover investment, operation andmaintenance costs. The spread between peak andoff-peak prices has diminished in various areas,including those where the need for storage isincreasingly recognised, such as Europe and theUnited States.

In the United States, the main reason for this closingof the gap may be the low price of natural gas,driven down by the boom in shale gas and the wideavailability of gas-fired plants. Although more than16 GW of new PSP capacities have recently beenlicensed, only 1 GW will be commissioned by 2020,almost all of it through modernisation and upgradeof existing PSP (Fisheret al., 2012).

In Europe, growing shares of renewable mayhave played a significant role due to the meritorder effect that reduces electricity prices on spotmarkets, which are based on marginal runningcosts. For example, PSP plants in Germany havecollected about kEUR 87/MW (kUSD 112) in 2008

but only kEUR 35/MW (kUSD 45) in 2010. Ancillaryservice markets especially negative secondaryreserve - may now provide greater revenues inGermany, with 83 kEUR/MW (kUSD 107) on average2008-10 (Steffen, 2012). These various revenuestreams are not cumulat

2012 hydropower roadmap

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