20111024 npss11 arnhem
TRANSCRIPT
Transition to a sustainable society:challenge of the century
Arnhem, 24 october 2011
Prof.dr.ir. Jan Rotmans
www.twitter.com/janrotmans
Transitional Times
20 - 30 years
Acceleration phasePredevelopment phase20 – 30 years
Transition to a sustainable society
”Widespread application of new paradigms
Distribution and diffusion of societal advantagesTip
ping P
oint
Battle between old and new paradigmBuild up and decay of institutions
energy
Time
We are here
Consolidatiion
transport
water
health care
agriculture
Indications for Tipping Point
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
Multi-level sustainability assessmentMacro-level+ scarcity of fossil resources+ energy security+ climate change+ financial-economic crisis
Meso-level+/- Copenhagen treaty+ WBC Sustain. Dev.+/- EU-energy policy+ regional and city plans
Micro-level+ decentral production+ solar- and wind energy+ local energy cooperations+ pioneers and entrepreneurs
crisis from a transition perspective
Current crisis is a systems crisis
financial crisis is a symptom of systems crisis
energy crisis and climate crisis yet to come
systems crisis is deeply rooted in
production & consumption exhaustion of natural resources
only transformative change will help
Transition
fundamental change of structure, culture, practices
structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructureculture: collective set of values, paradigmspractices: routines, behaviour, ways of handling
fundamentals shift in thinkin & acting at the systems level
means to achieve a sustainable society
Examples of transitions
internetfrom physical to virtual
water transitionfrom stemming water to accomodating water
energy transitionfrom fossil energy to sustainable energy supply
health care transitionfrom bureaucratic health care to human care
Paradigm Shift
old worldview new worldview
exploitation model co-operation model
economic profit societal profit
linear processes cycles
deriving values creating values
individual-driven community-driven
Transition to Sustainable Society
quest to new values from to
welfare happinessexploitation cooperationlinear cyclicalcentral decentralhierarchy networksindividuals communitiescontrol adjustdirecting facilitating
Transition = Power shift
regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests
niche: emerging, deviant structure, culture and practices at smaller scale level
niches emerge and cluster and form a niche-regime that mighttake over the incumbent regime. The regime will try to defendits existing power and to eliminate or assimilate niche-regime
transition = regime-shift = power shift
Global Power Struggle
Obama
“ the country that will dominate the sustainable energy-economy will become the country that will dominate the world economy and America must be that country ”
Sustainable Trends
global economy arises around clean techsustainable energy, biobased chemical industrysustainable water technology, sustainable waste disposal
fastest growing industry in the world
2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009)
China 55 billion Germany 42 billionUnited States 35 billionItaly 17 billion
Netherlands 3 billion
Global Sustainable Economy
China invests coming 5 years 235 billion euro in clean technology
VW invests 1 billion in sustainable energy (windmill park, hydropower station)
Unilever wants to cut footprint by 50% in 10 years
German national bank: 100 billion for sustainable energy
green revolution unfolding
Global Sustainable Economy
Global Sustainable Economy
current worldwide sales of sustainability sector is 1400 billion $
sales doubles the coming 5-10 year and yields ca. 100 million‘green’ jobs: sustainable energy, chemistry, waste recyclingwater management, agriculture, services
sustainable energy: 20 million new jobssustainable biomass: 15 million new jobssustainable construction: 10 million new jobs
Glocalisation
ca. 10.000 local and regional initiatives in the Netherlands
thousands of sustainability frontrunners:sustainable energy, food, construction, mobility, life style, fashion
hundreds of start-ups in the realm of sustainability
ca. 400 plans for local energy cooperations
bubbling undercurrent
Local Sustainable Dynamics
Glocalisation
decentral becomes thé trend
energy but also food, water, waste, care
becomes co-determinant for spatial planning
society goest faster than politics can handle
companies, organisations, citizens, neighbourhoods
politics needs to facilitate this dynamics
Local Sustainable Dynamics
Sustainability Vision
Economy
clean and safe
circular
green resources
new, green manufacturingwater, energy, climate, space
Built Environment
energy producing
green
city farming
using roofs and front walls
Stichting Urgenda
Stichting Urgenda
Stichting Urgenda
Mobility & Transport
electric
mobility service
connected electric cars
hybrid form of public/private transport
Floating Cities
living, working and recreation on the water
floating districts and floating cities
green infrastructure on the water
floating parks
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Dutch Research Institute For Transitions
Floating City
water recreation
ecology:wetlands
technology: floating foundation
energy: decentralheat/cold storage
mobility: floatinghighway, water taxi
living / working units
Value Communities
glocalisation
communities around energy, food, care
Clean Tech Rotterdam
McDonalds Biologisch – McFast + McSlow
What does this mean for process technology?
Sustainable Process Technology
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
Sustainable Process Technology
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
Plant One
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
What does this mean for this conference?
Sustainable Process Technology
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
Sustainable Process Technology
semi-permanent financial crisisbank crisis, debt crisis, country crisis, euro crisis, EU-crisis
unfolding protest Occupy movementemerging, worldwide niche
looming energy crisisscarcity of exploitable fossil fuels
climate change extremespolar ice melting, glacier melting, droughts and floods
scarcity of materials and minerals
Conclusions• sustainable innovation will be the motor of a new economy
• this will radically change our production & consumption patterns
• City Port Rotterdam is transformed into a sustainable living,working and recreation area
• this transition process takes about 30 years and requires anorganic development trajectory
• floating city might become thé icon of a sustainable CityPort Rotterdam