Transition Perspective on the Biobased Economy

Arnhem

15 February 2012

www.twitter.com/janrotmans

Third Industrial Revolution

1st Industrial Revolution

coal, steam engine

2th Industrial Revolution

oil, combustion engine

3th Industrial Revolution

sustainable energy, renewable resources

Transition to sustainable Economy

From To

CO2-based CO2-free

linear closed cycles

fossil fuels green resources

recyclen upcyclen

ownership trading / hiring

Philosophy

we must mimic nature and not control and force

from reductionism to holism

clean energy

clean transport

clean water technology

clean chemistry

Clean Tech Industry

global economy arising around clean tech

fastest growing industry in the world

2010: 250 billion dollar (30% growth compared to 2009)

China 55 billion Germany 42 billionUnited States 35 billionItaly 17 billion

Nederland 2 billion

Global Clean Tech

Bron: Clean Economy, Living Planet

Investeringen in Clean Tech (bron WNF)

Relative Clean Tech value added weighted by GDP 2010 [% EUR] (bron WNF)

National public expenses R&D [% EUR/BNP] (bron WNF)

Clean Tech Global Production [% EUR/BNP]

Bron: Roland Berger analysis

Clean Energy Technology growth rates per country

Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008

Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008

clean tech is the fastest growing industry in the world

absolute frontrunners are China and the US

frontrunners of the pack are Germany, UK, Denmark,Japan

the Netherlands is lagging behind (in the back of the pack)

the Netherlands is underinvesting in the clean tech

Conclusion I

Transition to Bio-Economy

biomass

plants, woord, algae, waste

photosynthesis

biorefining

biomaterials

Transition to Bio-Economy

Value Pyramid

Bron: industrial biotechnology winter 2008

big harbours

chemical industry

agriculture and agro-industry

transport and logistics

energy production

knowledge & innovation

Ideal Starting Point for the Netherlands

technological

adjustment of logistical system

new infrastructure (new pipelines)

adapted harbours

changing material streams

different agraricultural chains

societaldifferent societal relationships

adjusted law and regulation

sustainability

  

Evolutionary Revolution

agriculture must be untwined from the fossil sector

chemical sector must be untwined from the fossil sector

chemical sector must be converted into food-health sector

runs into the vested interests of petro-chemical sector

and agricultural sector 

demands for radical change and will take decades

Interwoven Sub Transitions

Predevelopment

Stabilisation

2050

Sustainable bio-economy

Acceleration

Take-off

current situation

2000 2012 time

Phase of transition bio-economy

Scale of transition bio-economyMacro-niveau - scarcity of fossil fuels + supply security + climate change - financial-economic crisis

Meso-niveau - global climate treaty + WBC Sustainable Development. - EU laws & regulation - Dutch laws & regulation

Micro-niveau - pilots + technological expertise + entrepreneurs - local laws & regulation

Transition

sweeping change in structure, culture, practices

structure: institutional, economic, physical infrastructure

culture: paradigms, shared notions and views

practices: routines, rules, behaviour

radical shift in thinking & acting at systems level in small steps

Transition is Power Shift

regime: dominant structure, culture and practices with power and vested interests

niche: emerging, divergent structure, culture and practices at small scale level

niche wants to develop power and to take over theexisting regime; the regime protects itself against theupcoming niches through absorption or elimination

transition = regime-exchange = power shift

Three key transition patterns

bottom-up(i) niches emerge, cluster and form a niche-regime that ultimately takes

over the regime, forming a new regime

top-down(ii) a massive, fast change in the landscape leads to big pressure on

the regime, resulting in a regime-change

hybrid(iii) niches emerge and form a niche-regime within the incumbent regime that gradually co-evolve into a new regime

Transition to bio-economy

leads to different practices, institutions, laws and rules,

financial streams and power relationships

requires institutional innovation: agriculture and chemistry

needs to cooperate intensely from diverse cultures

demands for radical change in incremental steps

bio-economy transition is still in predevelopment phase

bio-economy transition is the most complex transition

in the Netherlands bio-economy is coupled to energy

strong resistance from regime in the Netherlands

Conclusion II

How to accelerate the Bio-transition?

mental barriers

legal barriers

policy barriers

financial barriers

I. Removing Barriers

return on investments for bio-economy is

5 times higher than for fossil economy

in terms of:

- contribution to innovation

- employment

- economic structure reinforcement

Mental Barriers

Law- and regulation fossil oriented

creates a non-level playing field

- making ethylene from bio-ethanol (with import tax)

or from nafta (oil product, without import tax)

- many residual currents are considered as waste in

waste materials law

Legal Barriers

only signposts for biomass in the direction of energy

no signposts for biomaterials / biochemicals

- biofuels are obligatory and biomaterials not

- European biofuels guideline creates artificlasuper market

for biofuels

value pyramid turned upside down

Policy Barriers

bio-economic system is full of system flaws

and is still fully fossil oriented

persistent problem

Conclusion III

optimalisation route

more efficient use of natural resources

closing cycles, using residual currents

transformative route

new products and materials biorefining , without fossil fuels

II. Dual Routes

Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland

DOWintegral watermanagement, closed watercycle, not from

Biesbosch important initiative, huge amount of water

DOW bcomes motor for bio-chemistry?

Cargill starch and proteins, using residuals and upgrading proteins,

closing cycles within the company, is part of DNA, example for others

2th generation biomass?

Examples of Bio-economy Zeeland

Thermphosphosphor production on different basis, phosphor from wheat & sludge

C2C with Braungart, is searching- and learning process

on the way to green resources and bio-chemistry?

Heros Ecoparkresiduals for high-quality use, using copper and sink better

new chemical company arises in this way, facilitating partners in chain

route to biochemical company with better reputation?

niche-regime players

small bio-entrepreneurs together with big traditional companies

cross-sectoral

paper industry, agrofood sector, dairy, chemical, energy sector

societal coalition

business / research / education / ngo’s / intermediaries

III. New Coalitions

consumers will play a key role in the transition

- approaching communities

- using social media

- participation in innovation spaces

IV. Engaging Consumers

bottleneck is NOT the technology BUT the process

99% of the money goes to biotechnology

requires smart and subtle manoeuvring

It’s the process stupid!

V. Facilitating the process

VI. Facilitating the process

1. stringent norms for sustainability of biomass

2. creating innovation space

3. removing barriers

4. forming unthought coalitions and networks

VII. Visionary & Practical

- realising in practice what is already possible

factory for production of bio-ethylene from bio-ethanol

- orientation to excellence at high levels in value chain

high-quality products ; knowledge-intensive innovation

- searching, learning and experimenting

innovation spaces with frontrunners

Recipe for Transition Failure

cannot be realized with only players

from the fossil regime with vested interests

(topsectoren policy of Dutch government)

a turkey doesn’t put itself on the christmas menu

new, clean and circular economy is arising: clean tech

transition to bio-economy is still in development stage

is of crucial importance for Europe and for the Netherlands

22 millions Europeans involved in potence

smart facilitation of the bio-transition is needed

more frontrunners in new coalitions are needed

searching, learning and experimenting

Conclusions