climar · 2009. 4. 17. · climar evaluation of climate change impacts and adaptation responses for...
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
CLIMAREvaluation of climate change impacts andadaptation responses for marine activities
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
CLIMAREvaluation of climate change impacts andadaptation responses for marine activities
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical Models: José Ozer, Stéphanie Ponsar, Dries Van den Eynde
Arcadis Belgium: Renaat De Sutter, Annemie Volckaert, Lieven De Smet
Flanders Hydraulics Research: Toon Verwaest, Katrien Van der Biest
ILVO – Fisheries: Hans Polet, Els Vanderperren
Maritime Institute, University Gent: Frank Maes, MarianWillekens
Project funded by Belgian Science Policy
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Marbaix et al., 2004
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Stern, 2006
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
-
Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
WP1Definition and modelling of climate change induced primary impacts at North Sea scale
Climate change induced primary impacts: sea level rise, increased storminess, possible increased rainfall, salinity, temperature, etc.. Definition and modelling
WP2Deduction of climate change induced secondary impacts
Secondary impacts on the marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities Identification and
classifications
Case study – Fisheries sector Impact assessment
Case study - Coastal flooding Modelling
WP3Identification of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Identification/modelling of
adaptation scenario’s/measures
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities.
extrapolation of adaptationscenario’s/measures
WP4Evaluation of adaptation scenario’s/measures
Case study – Coastal flooding Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Case study – Fisheries sector Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Integrated sustainability assessment
of adaptation scenario's/measures
Elaboration of an evaluation framework for adaptation scenario’s/measures as a response to climate induced impacts (North Sea)
Evaluation of the effects of the proposed adaptive strategies (embedding in policy, practical integration, implementation )
Marine ecosystem in general and related socio-economic activities. Evaluation adaptation
scenario/measures
Formulation of recommendations towards North Sea future policy and its different socio-economical activities.
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Primary impacts
Literature study
Analysis of measurements– Sea Level Rise
– Waves
– Wind speed and direction
– Sea water temperature
Set up of climate change scenarios for Belgium
Use of numerical models to look at change in hydrodynamicaland sedimentological parameters
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea level rise
Data sets– 1937-2003: monthly and yearly mean values of the Permanent Service
for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL)– 1980-2006: hourly values of the Flemish Governement, Maritieme
Dienstverlening en Kust (MDK)– 1925-1979: high and low waters of MDK
Yearly mean values for 1927 – 2006
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Yearly mean values for 1927 - 2006
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Results
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Results
Constant trend: 1.69 mm/year– Higher then Van Cauwenberghe for the period 1925 – 1998, i.e.
1.44 mm/yearTrend varying by step– 1.41 mm/year before 1992– 4.41 mm/year after 1992
Constant acceleration of the trend (2nd order polynomial)– 0.72 mm/year in 1927– 2.63 mm/year in 2006
Linear acceleration of the trend (3th order polynomial)– 3.31 mm/year in 1927– 0.93 mm/year in 1962 – 5.15 mm/year in 2006
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Predictions
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Conclusion
Rise of sea level at Oostende over the last 80 years is around (at least) 1.69 mm/yearThe rise of the sea level seems to increase, but more data are necessary to confirm thisGlobal observations – literature– In 20th century, the global sea level rise is estimated at 1.7±0.5
mm/year– Using satellite measurements (altimeter), the sea level rise is
estimated at 3.1±0.7 mm/year over the period 1993-2003
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of waves
Data sets– Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust
Bol van Heist – 1978-2007
– Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland3 stations – Scheur West – 1980 (1985) – 2007
Time series– Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cyclus (+ residue)Lineair regression
– Maximal wave heights– Percentage of high wave heights
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of waves
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986198419821980
Sign
ific
ante
gol
fhoo
gte
(m)
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986198419821980
Sign
ific
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(m)
bvhbhg2delo
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-0.2
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decnovoktsepaugjuljunmeiaprmrtfebjan
Sign
ific
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fhoo
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(m)
bvhbhg2delo
schw
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of high waves
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5
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15
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25
200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986198419821980
hs > 2m
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1
1.5
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3.5
4
4.5
200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986198419821980
hsmax
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of waves
Lineair regression – different resultsBol van Heist: -0.0013 m/yearBrouwershavensche Gat 2: -0.0027 m/yearDeurlo: +0.0004 m/yearScheur West: +0.0024 m/year
Lineair regression of high waves– Percentage high waves decreases– Maximal wave height dependent on the station
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of wind speed
Data sets – Agentschap Maritieme Dienstverlening en Kust
Westhinder – 1994-2007
– Hydro Meteo Centrum Zeeland2 stations – 1980 (1988) – 2007
– Meteorological predictions of the Norwegian Meteorological InstituteWesthinder – 1955 - 2006
Time series – Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)Lineair regression
– Maximal wind speed– Percentage of high wind speeds
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of the wind speed
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7.5
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8.5
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10
201020052000199519901985198019751970196519601955
Win
dsne
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/s)
bhg2vlra
whixwhid
0
5
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15
20
25
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Perc
enta
ge
8 Bft.
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of wind direction
-200
-100
0
100
200
-200 -100 0 100 200
1955-19641965-19741975-19841985-19941995-2004
2005-
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of wind speed and direction
Lineair regression – different resultsWesthinder – NMI: -0.003 m/s/yearVlakte van de Raan: wind speed increases General: on the Belgian Continental Shelf: wind speed seems to decreaseReport KMI – not yet available
Lineair regression of high wind speedsMost results seems to indicate an increase in the high wind speeds
Wind directionIncrease of winds from the West to West-south-west
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea water temperature
Data sets– British Oceanographic Data Centre– World Ocean Data Base 2005
Time series– Different boxes– Monthly means
Long term trend + seasonal cycle (+ residue)Lineair regression
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Analysis of sea water temperature
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
’long.44’ using 1:2’statout.44’ using 1:3
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8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
11.5
12
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
’long.22’ using 1:2’statout.22’ using 1:3
– Increase temperature : 0.018 °C/year to 0.051 °C/year
– cfr. literature: +2-4°C in 2100
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Scenarios 2100
+200 cm+93 cm+93 cm+60 cm+60 cm Sea Level
+3,5 °C+3,5 °C+3,5 °C+2,5 °C+2,5 °CSea water temperature
+8 %+8 %-2 %+4 %+0 %Wind speed
-40 %-40 %+12 %-20 %+6 %Summer precipitation
+28 %+28 %+16 %+14 %+8 %Winter precipitation
YesYesNoYesNoChange of circulation
+4 °C+4 °C+4 °C+2 °C+2 °CAir temperature
WorstW+WM+M
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Changes in the hydrodynamic climate
Using the different scenarios for 2100– Sea level rise– Higher wind speeds
Use of different numerical models– Hydrodynamic models: changes in currents, bottom stress, …– Wave models: changes in significant wave height, erosion of the
beaches,…– Sediment transport models: changes in erosion and
sedimentation patterns, …Link with the Quest4D project
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on hydrodynamic climate
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on hydrodynamic climate
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on wave climate
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Impact on wave climate
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Tourism – TCI indicator for attractivenessof the coast
The TCI index is weighted and computed as follows (Amelung et al., 2007): TCI = 2 * (4CID + CIA + 2R + 2S + W)
Subindex Variable(s)Daytime comfort Index (CID) Maximum daily temperature
(°C)Minimum daily relativehumidity (%)
Daily comfort Index (CIA) Mean daily temperature(°C)Mean daily relative humidity(%)
Precipitation (R) Precipitation (mm)Sunshine (S) Daily duration of sunshine
(hours)W ind speed (W ) W ind speed (m/s or km/hr)
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
TCI- rating Current situation
2020s 2050s 2080s
Spring (March, April, May) Marginal A1F: marginal A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptableB1: marginal B1: acceptable B1: acceptable
Summer (June, July, August) Mostly very good
A1F: very good A1F: excellent A1F: excellent
B1: very good B1: very good B1: excellentAutumn (September, October,November)
Marginal A1F: acceptable A1F: acceptableto good
A1F: good
B1: acceptableB1: marginal B1: acceptable
# of months per year exhibiting“very good” or better (TCI ?70) climatic conditions
2 A1F: 3 A1F: 4-5 A1F: 5-6
B1: 2 - 3 B1: 4 B1: 4-5
Tourism – TCI indicator for attractivenessof the coast
(A1F rapid economic growth – B1 more sustainable growth)
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense – secondary impacts
Ecological impacts– Change in habitat & biodiversity
Coastal erosionBeach nourismentHard defencesManaged retreat
Economic impacts– Losses - coastal structures, buildings, industry
Social impacts– Security
Victims of floodings
– Attractiveness of the coastHigher natural value by managed retreat
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense – quantification
Risk calculations– Changes in beach profiles during storm– Chances for breakthrough of the dunes– Flooding– Damages and victims
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Coastal defense –
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Good overview of the fisheries sector– Magnitude of fleet– Fishing grounds– Commercial species– External factors
Fuel pricesNational and international regulations
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Secondary impacts of climate changes– Ecological impacts
Geographical shift of speciesHabitat changeFood availabilityGrowth - mortality - recruitmentCOMPLEX – not only termperature is importantFor different fish species effects are evaluated
– Economic impactsProductivityRisks for damages
– Social impactsEmploymentSafety
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Sole– Commercial important– Expected climate change effects
Higher temperature– Higher survival of demersale stadium– Decrease of winter mortality– Earlier spawning– Higher growth rate
Precipitation– Possible change of the quality of the nursing grounds
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Fisheries sector
Adaptation strategies– Other commercial species– Other fishing techniques
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Management Unit of the North Sea Mathematical ModelsMUMM | BMM | UGMM
http://www.mumm.ac.be/
SEAMOCS ConferenceEffects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications,
and the role of statisticsSliema, Malta, 18-30 March 2009
Conclusions
CLIMAR– Work in progress– Results available on website:
http://www.arcadisbelgium.be/climar