20080624 demand forecast

7/31/2019 20080624 Demand Forecast

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Access network architecture

to be deployed at target area

24th June 2008

NTT Access Network Service System Laboratories


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Concept of Demand Forecast

Case StudySun City BuildingCiputra area


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Concept of Demand Forecast


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Why is design techniques necessary

Design method enable subscribers to be accommodate efficiently and economically in central office.

Low penetration of optical service High penetration of optical service

Efficient constructionof facilities

Underground cable

Facility managementunits

Fibers are distributed from underground cable to every area.

Central

office

facilities are complexmanagement is difficult


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Underground cable

Optical Demand Forecast

optical user

not need

current 10%

30%

current 30%

50%

Optical demand depends on each area. If you estimate the demand same in all area , it causeswaste or lack of facilities.Efficient construction of facilities are needed the optical demand management in every area.

current 10%

20%

a few years later

a few years latera few years later

potentialoptical-user


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River

Station

How to divide the unit

Railway

field

Rice field

Park

bridge


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River

StationRailway

How to divide the unit

field

Rice field

Park

bridge


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River

StationRailway

How to forecast the demand

field

Rice field

Park

Now

bridge


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River

StationRailway

Park

field

Rice field


bridge


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River

StationRailway

field

Rice field

10 years later

Park


bridge


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Use both single star and PON as the situation

demands

Topology

Access sectionCustomerpremises

Optical access networks

Centraloffice

Splitter ONU

OLT

Optical cable

ONUOptical cable

Splitter Optical cable

MC MCMC MC

OLT

ONU

ONU

ONU

ONU


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Users requiring Single Star circuit

Internet cafe Big company

Bank


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Example : Estimate the number of fibers

User target rate PON(4user/1SP) SS(depends on areaenvironment)

Unit 1 600business area

360 user 90 fiber 100 fiberuser 30% fiber

Unit 2 500business

/residential


Unit 3 400residential


about

about

about


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River

StationRailway

field

Rice field

Park

How to distribute the optical fiber

Required fibers

bridge


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IDMOLT

AURORA

OLT ONU

4 branch Splitter

Premise

8 branch Splitter

Configuration of optical access network topologyConfiguration of optical access network topology

DistributionPoint

Aerial optical accessline section

- About 0.7km -

Customerinstallations

section

Underground optical accessline section

- About 1.5 km -

FeederPoint

Configuration of optical access network topology

1 2cores

Mono coatedoptical fibers

24- 200 cores

optical

fiber cable1000 cores

8 cores

Drop Point


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River

StationRailway


field

Rice field

Park

Unit1 Unit2 Unit3 reserved

Feeder point

bridge


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River

StationRailway

field

Rice field

Park


bridge


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Example 1

we had designed with Low demand.10 years ago

Lay the minimum fibers.


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Example 1

residential houses increase!

What can I do?We need to lay additional cable!

Now

Shortage

we had designed with Low demand.10 years ago


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Example 2

we had designed with High demand.10 years ago

Lay a lot of fibers.


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Example 2

Customers dont want new services

What can I do?Sale the new service! (to market division)

Now

Many unused optical fibers remain!

we had designed with High demand.10 years ago


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Demand forecast

Demandforecast

Shortage

Too much

adequate

More Sales

Additional facilities

OK!


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Summary

20080624 demand forecast

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