2008 elections & beyond

2008 Elections & Beyond

Ike GittlenTechnician, BSIC

USW District 1 Women of Steel ConferenceCincinnati, OH – November 10,2008

D-1 WOS - Cincinnati,OH - 11-10-08 Slide 2

Leo’s Strategy

• Build the Capacity• Win the Election• Legislative and

Administrative Change


Unprecedented Union Effort

• AFL-CIO Unions…• 70 Million Phone Calls Made• 57 Million Union Pieces Mailed• 27 Million Workplace Flyers Distributed• 10 Million Doors Knocked On• 250,000 Volunteers in last 4 Days

Source: aflcio.org


Unprecedented Member Outreach

• 80% of AFL-CIO Members got Mail• 80% of AFL-CIO Members got a Publication• 59% of AFL-CIO Members got a Live Phone call• 32% of AFL-CIO Members got a Worksite Flyer

Source: aflcio.org


USW Effort

• 100,000 Member Contacts• 5 Million Pieces of Literature• 500 Full Time People on the Election• 11,000 Volunteers• 31 States

Source: usw.org


Ohio Effort

• 1000 Volunteers• 3000 Shifts of Work• 600,000 Worksite Leaflets

• Ohio led the Nation on this• 32,000 USW Members and Families

requested Absentee Ballots• An astonishing number

Source: USW Political Department


Decisive Election• President:

Barack Obama

• 53% - Popular vote (65,340,608 votes)

• 364 - Electoral Votes (163 for JM)

• Senate: (100 Total)

• 57 D’s (+6) – 40 R’s (3 Undecided Races)

• House: (435 Total)

• 255 D’s (+19) – 174 R’s (6 Undecided Races)

Source: http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/


Member Work Paid Off

• 21% of Overall Vote was from Union Households• 67% of Union Households Voted for Barak Obama

• 69% In Top Tier Battleground States• Compared to 51% of Non-Union Households

• Union Voters gave 25% more Votes to Barack Obama

Source: aflcio.org


Who Voted for ObamaObama (%) McCain (%)

Blacks 99 1

Postgraduates 64 36

Union Households 63 37

18 to 29 Year Olds 61 39

Seldom/Never Attend Church 61 39

Women 56 44



Catholics 53 47

Note: Unmarried Women voted for Obama by 70% to 29%. A 44% difference occurred between the voting performance of unmarried women and married women.

Source:Gallup Polling

Source:greenberg quinlan rosner research


Who Voted for McCain

McCain (%) Obama (%)Attend Church Weekly 56 44

Non-Hispanic Whites 56 44

65 Years and Older 54 46

Protestants 53 47

Men 51 49



The Union Difference

Obama Votes Union % Non-Union %

White Men +18 -16

Gun Owners +12 -25

Veterans +25 -9

Source:Daily Labor Report 11/6/08


Election Notes

• Obama outperformed Kerry in every grouping • Except +65’s and Gay/Lesbian

• Obama White support equaled Kerry’s• Obama’s Black support beat Kerry’s by 5%• Middle Aged Voters moved to Obama

• Offsetting the Senior Shift to McCain• Overall Shift of Likely Voters from R to D columns

• R’s lost 10% of their Registered Voters from 04’• Overall Turnout Unchanged but favored D’s in 08’

• D’s increased by +2.6% • while R’s decreased by -1.3%



Economy the #1 Issue

Fox NewsNov 1 & 2

CNN Oct 30 to Nov 1

CBS/NYTOct 25 to 29th

Economy & Jobs 49 57 55

Terrorism & National Security 9 10 13

Health Care 8 13 9

Taxes 8

War in Iraq 7 13 6

Ethics/Government Corruption 6

Abortion 6

Energy 3 7

Immigration 2 5 4

Note: 60% of Union Voters said Economy was the Top IssueSource: AFL-CIO


Our Key Issues

• Employee Free Choice Act• Fair Trade Policies/Jobs• Healthcare Reform


Employee Free Choice Act

• Card Check Recognition (majority sign, NLRB Certifies)• 1st Contract Mediation – Binding Arbitration• Penalties Against Companies for Organizing Campaign

Violations/1st Contract• Triple Penalties for illegal Discrimination or Discharge

during Organizing/1st Contract• Mandatory Court Injunctive Relief to be

sought by NLRB over violations • President-Elect Obama has committed to

sign EFCA

Source: AFL-CIO Web Site


Employee Free Choice Act• On March 1, 2007, the House passed the act by a vote of 241 to 185. • On June 26, 2007 the Senate voted 51 to 48 on a motion to invoke cloture

on the motion to proceed to consider the bill. • 60 votes were needed to invoke cloture. (to end a Senate filibuster)

• President-Elect Obama has committed to Sign EFCA

• House Passage is Assured

• Senate is still short of votes needed to beat Filibuster

• However, we are only talking about swinging a vote or two now


Fair Trade President Gerard to Democratic Party Platform Committee

“Senator Obama has voiced his concerns.”

“He has said that his first principle in approaching trade issues is that “our trade agreements must provide clear and measurable benefits for American workers….”

“He has made it clear that he will pursue a pragmatic, results-oriented policy that recognizes the need for the U.S. to lead, but that leadership requires the strong support of our citizens – citizens who, far too often, have seen their nation’s trade policies abandon their interests and jeopardize their jobs and their futures.”


Fair Trade Agenda – Gerard/DNC continued..

How can we continue to run trade deficits of hundreds of billions of dollars a year, accumulating more than $6 trillion in current account deficits since 1994 –borrowing about $2 billion each and every day and not expect that there will be a price to pay?

How can we expect to maintain a strong currency when our economy is so weak?

How can we lose more than 3.5 million manufacturing jobs and see more than 40,000 facilities shuttered and ask our citizens to support trade policies that have shipped their jobs overseas?

How can we refuse to pursue, aggressively enough, the fight for labor rights in America or overseas and expect that workers in other nations will have the rights necessary to be adequately compensated for their labor and help build a bridge to the middle class?


Fair Trade - Gerard/DNC continued..

How can we watch as other nations – like China -- subsidize their producers, dump their products on our markets and refuse to accept our goods in their markets while our leaders simply continue to spout ideology and refuse to enforce our own laws?

How can we let policymakers tell our children that they should work hard and go to college to get one of the “jobs of the future” when those jobs, increasingly, are being done offshore as our nation’s advanced technology trade deficit with China alone amounts to more than $67 billion?

How can we control our own economic destiny when country after country with which we’ve built up huge trade deficits create sovereign wealth funds that are beginning to shop the American market

Source: Gerard Speech to Dem. Party Platform Committee – 8-1-08


Fair Trade – Election Results

• +26 more House Fair Trade Advocates Elected (net)• +5 more Senate Fair Trade Advocates Elected (net)

• (Adds to the 37 Fair Traders elected in 2006)

• Obama Shifted Our Way on Trade during the course of the Election

• Makes our Agenda Much more Achievable• Allows a more Aggressive Agenda• Jobs Issue has made it a Priority

Source: Public Citizen


Health Care Principles• Universal Coverage (everyone covered)• Government has a “central role” in regulating, financing and

providing• Coverage through large groups that pool risk to ensure coverage• Coverage that is comprehensive and affordable• Unions/Employers retain the ability to supplement coverage• Individuals should continue to choose their own doctors and

providers• Financing Shared Responsibility (individuals, companies,

government, etc.) • Level Playing field for all businesses (age/# of retirees

should not disadvantage)• Effective Cost Control and Information Transparency

• Employees should have a “protected voice” in improving health care

• Do No Harm (don’t make it worse until we fix it)


Healthcare• President-Elect Obama’s Plan becomes the starting point

• Not a Question of “IF”, just “What”• Should Bring Reluctant Stakeholders to the Table

• Business, Medical Professionals, etc.• Kennedy, Baucus and others already preparing the groundwork• Tight money will be a hurdle

• One Indicator:• At last count, 119 Members of Congress have now

signed on to the Healthcare for America Now (HCAN) campaign, indicating their commitment to enacting a guarantee of quality, affordable health care for all as a “first order of business” in 2009.


Where Do We Go From Here

• Opportunity, not a Guarantee• Support the new President and Congress to get things done• Patience with timing and the process• Continuous Campaign (Movement vs. Issue Response)• Organizing Model alongside a Service Model• Test the Mandate


Your Turn

• Questions• Comments• Discussion

2008 elections & beyond

Documents

wos cincinnati

usw members

d columnsrs

union differencesource

union households67

union pieces mailed27

registered voters

householdsunion voters