200603 future it-professionals
DESCRIPTION
Future Era of IT Professional over the decade..TRANSCRIPT
The Future of IT ProfessionalsThe Future of IT Professionals(if they have one)(if they have one)
OTUGOTUG
March 21, 2006March 21, 2006
Dr. dave westDr. dave west
Good news Good news (Bad news)(Bad news)
There will be a future There will be a future (the threat of avian programmer flu (the threat of avian programmer flu pandemic has been vastly exaggerated)pandemic has been vastly exaggerated)
The dot com recession has ended The dot com recession has ended (excepting a few (excepting a few “Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well)“Googles”, the dot com excitement is largely gone as well)
IT jobs are increasing in numberIT jobs are increasing in number (mostly offshore and/or via (mostly offshore and/or via HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill)HB1 visa increases – most of you are not smart enough for Bill)
34% of all software projects are completed and used by 34% of all software projects are completed and used by customer customer (usually late and over budget)(usually late and over budget)
Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper Platforms are smaller, faster, cheaper (still powered by (still powered by Windows)Windows)
Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry Agile / Lean development is sweeping the industry (at (at least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices)least 14% of all IT shops use some agile / lean practices)
Survey Says!Survey Says!
2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005)2500 sent, 1427 returned (Feb/March 2005) 43% would choose profession again43% would choose profession again 5% made the world a better place5% made the world a better place 74% salary stagnant / declining74% salary stagnant / declining 63% felt negative consequences from off-63% felt negative consequences from off-
shoringshoring 9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method9% satisfied with day-to-day process / method 21% take great pride in the quality of their work21% take great pride in the quality of their work
Baseline 2006Baseline 2006
IT Doesn’t matterIT Doesn’t matter IT professionals are commoditiesIT professionals are commoditiesManagement / User perspective Management / User perspective Popular PerceptionsPopular Perceptions
IT Doesn’t MatterIT Doesn’t Matter
Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Nicholas G Carr, Harvard Business Review, 2003Review, 2003
Main argumentsMain arguments IT is cheap and ubiquitousIT is cheap and ubiquitous IT is a utility – no longer of strategic valueIT is a utility – no longer of strategic value IT management shouldIT management should
Spend lessSpend lessFollow, don’t leadFollow, don’t leadFocus on vulnerabilities, not opportunitiesFocus on vulnerabilities, not opportunities
IT doesn’t Matter - RebuttalIT doesn’t Matter - Rebuttal John Seeley Brown, John Hagel IIIJohn Seeley Brown, John Hagel III IT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantageIT by itself, rarely if ever, confers strategic advantage IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities IT is inherently strategic because it creates possibilities
and optionsand options Main pointsMain points
Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business Extracting value from IT requires innovations in business practicespractices
IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather IT’s economic impact comes from incremental innovations rather than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects)than “big bang” initiatives (“fiasco” of ERP / CRM projects)
The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the The strategic impact of IT investments comes from the cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business cumulative effect of sustained initiatives to innovate business practices in the near term (emergence)practices in the near term (emergence)
Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism”Strategic value comes from “radical incrementalism”
IT Doesn’t Matter - AsideIT Doesn’t Matter - Aside Done versus saidDone versus said
Few companies welcome (foster) innovationFew companies welcome (foster) innovation Most companies act as if they believe that new tech Most companies act as if they believe that new tech
equates to new strategyequates to new strategy Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas, Most companies, and professionals, reject new ideas,
new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer”new possibilities: instead adopt “syntactic veneer” Bang! Is still normBang! Is still norm ““Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business Solutions” that inhibit / prevent innovation in business
practice preferred over those that enablepractice preferred over those that enable ““Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate Thriving on chaos” is still largely a corporate
business mythbusiness myth ““CYA is our most valuable resource.”CYA is our most valuable resource.”
IT Professionals are CommoditiesIT Professionals are Commodities
Outsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorillaOutsourcing (Offshore) – 700 pound gorilla WhatWhat
IT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, supportIT – data entry, programming, OS / network admin / DBA, support Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing, Other – back office, clinical trials, applications and claims processing,
filings, market research, legal (scientific research)filings, market research, legal (scientific research) WhyWhy
Cost (64%), Cost (64%), productivityproductivity (8%), turnaround speed (3%), (8%), turnaround speed (3%), qualityquality (3%) (3%) We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be We’ll adopt Java because everyone else is, so there will always be
a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a a lot of java programmers and we can get them at a rate of a dime a dozendozen
Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force Fungible, components to development teams (method used to force square pegs into round holes)square pegs into round holes)
HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions HR restrictions – individual differences are impossible, distinctions only on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificatesonly on “objective” criteria, e.g. certificates
Management / User PerspectiveManagement / User Perspective
ManagementManagement IT “necessary evil”IT “necessary evil”Cost of doing businessCost of doing businessHard to manageHard to manageContributes little to bottom lineContributes little to bottom line
UsersUsers ““irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of irritating tax levied an almost every aspect of
life”life”Why Things Don’t WorkWhy Things Don’t Work
Popular PerceptionsPopular Perceptions
Geek SquadGeek SquadCS is hard, boring, and “done in India”CS is hard, boring, and “done in India”
University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year University enrollments dropped 10-50% / year the past five yearsthe past five years
It’s (still) a boy thingIt’s (still) a boy thingCannot name / identify “good” softwareCannot name / identify “good” software ““bad” software is everywherebad” software is everywhereAn absence of heroes / heroines / mythic An absence of heroes / heroines / mythic
figuresfigures
Where did we go wrongWhere did we go wrong
IT is the computerIT is the computerBad! Bad human!Bad! Bad human! If it cannot be measured it is not realIf it cannot be measured it is not realControl, centralization, integrationControl, centralization, integrationGreatest generationGreatest generation
IT is the computerIT is the computer
Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Dahlbom & Mathiassen – The Future of Our ProfessionOur ProfessionMechanistic dominantMechanistic dominant
Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = Focus = artifact, approach = construction, role = engineerengineer
Formality (of definition / specification, process)Formality (of definition / specification, process)Need more romanticismNeed more romanticism
Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = Focus = culture, approach = interpretation, role = facilitatorfacilitator
MDA - epitome of the abstracted machineMDA - epitome of the abstracted machine
Bad!! Bad human!Bad!! Bad human!
Original sinOriginal sinAre humans innately evil but capable of Are humans innately evil but capable of
redemption, or innately good but subject to redemption, or innately good but subject to corruption?corruption?
Taylorism and scientific managementTaylorism and scientific managementAutomatic programming – CASE / Automatic programming – CASE /
repository - formal software engineeringrepository - formal software engineering
If it cannot be measured it is not If it cannot be measured it is not realreal
ProductivityProductivity LOC / developerLOC / developer Stories completedStories completed Tests passedTests passed
QualityQuality Defects / LOCDefects / LOC Passed testsPassed tests (elegance, durability, suitability, likeability)(elegance, durability, suitability, likeability)
CMM, ISO9000, …CMM, ISO9000, … Delivered software statistically identical to all other Delivered software statistically identical to all other
softwaresoftware
Control, Centralization, IntegrationControl, Centralization, Integration
ExamplesExamplesArchitectureArchitecture
55% of all programs use PSC architecture55% of all programs use PSC architecture30% have no architecture30% have no architecture
DatabaseDatabaseERP / CRMERP / CRM
Monolithic, expensive to change, example Monolithic, expensive to change, example of Bang! Solutionsof Bang! SolutionsBusiness straight jacketsBusiness straight jackets
Greatest GenerationGreatest Generation
MobilizationMobilization overnight armiesovernight armies
Manhattan projectManhattan projectBig bang thinkingBig bang thinking
GI BillGI BillEducation factoriesEducation factories
Alternative Future – Stay the Alternative Future – Stay the CourseCourse
DilbertDilbertCommoditizationCommoditization
blue vest with a smiley button for allblue vest with a smiley button for allCertificationCertification
No programmer left behind (It’s the test, No programmer left behind (It’s the test, stupid!)stupid!)
Google envyGoogle envy
Alternative Future – radical Alternative Future – radical realizationrealization
Key ideasKey ideasChange of focusChange of focusRedefine professionRedefine professionRe-conceptualize the professionalRe-conceptualize the professionalEducationEducationThe “C” wordThe “C” word
Key ideasKey ideas
Silver Bullet – better peopleSilver Bullet – better peopleMethodology – iterative / incrementalMethodology – iterative / incrementalProcess – applied reflectionProcess – applied reflectionSoftware Engineering – simplest thing that Software Engineering – simplest thing that
could possibly workcould possibly workObjects – anthropomorphizationObjects – anthropomorphizationAgile / XP – storyAgile / XP – storyLean - only that which adds valueLean - only that which adds value
Objects and StoriesObjects and Stories
Object = characterObject = character Fundamental unit of decomposition and Fundamental unit of decomposition and
understanding – NOT programmingunderstanding – NOT programming StoryStory
Cast of charactersCast of characters Context (snapshot of characters in context)Context (snapshot of characters in context) Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded – Interactions, communications (arbitrarily bounded –
e.g. index card rule)e.g. index card rule) Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or Result = changes in the state[s] of characters or
contextcontext The Historian by Elizabeth KostovaThe Historian by Elizabeth Kostova
Change of FocusChange of Focus
System – not artifactSystem – not artifact Complicated (dead) versus complex (living)Complicated (dead) versus complex (living) Reality constructionReality construction
Radical incrementalismRadical incrementalism Story not projectStory not project Nominal expense not capital improvementNominal expense not capital improvement Incremental return on investmentIncremental return on investment
Domain - not implementationDomain - not implementation Problem understanding defines solutionProblem understanding defines solution All implementations are “trivial”All implementations are “trivial”
Redefine ProfessionRedefine Profession
Definition – metaphorDefinition – metaphor Medicine, horticultureMedicine, horticulture
sacred (opposite of profane) responsibilitysacred (opposite of profane) responsibility Do no harmDo no harm Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery)Eschew intrusion (e.g. surgery) Focus / pay attention to side effects - holismFocus / pay attention to side effects - holism
PracticePractice Reclaim ownership of tools, skills, practicesReclaim ownership of tools, skills, practices
CommunityCommunity Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture Guild, (cult), peer derived reputation, culture
Re-conceptualize the ProfessionalRe-conceptualize the Professional
Deshi, sensei, master, arhatDeshi, sensei, master, arhatBy their works shall you know themBy their works shall you know themLinda Evans, not Sigourney WeaverLinda Evans, not Sigourney WeaverGrasshopper, Paladin, Dan IngallsGrasshopper, Paladin, Dan Ingalls
Situational awarenessSituational awarenessRight (non-attached) actionRight (non-attached) actioncatalystcatalyst
EducationEducation
Experience based – studioExperience based – studio Iterative, incrementalIterative, incrementalJust-in-time, theory lastJust-in-time, theory lastOne-room schoolhouseOne-room schoolhouseTeamsTeamsRetrospective / introspectiveRetrospective / introspective
What we are doing in NMWhat we are doing in NM
The “C” wordThe “C” word
Culture (not certification)Culture (not certification)Shared world viewShared world viewCommon mythology (including heroic figures)Common mythology (including heroic figures)
EnculturationEnculturationSchools (ashrams)Schools (ashrams)Professional society – organizationProfessional society – organizationConferencesConferences
OTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLAOTUG – Agile 2006 - OOPSLA
Separation (opening prayer)Separation (opening prayer)Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals, Re-identification, Re-recognition (rituals,
hymns, testimony)hymns, testimony)Re-purposing (homily – story about us)Re-purposing (homily – story about us)Education / growth (sermon)Education / growth (sermon)Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials)Affirmation (ritual, hymns, responsorials)Re-integration (closing prayer, Re-integration (closing prayer,
socialization)socialization)