2004

5

VICS(The Voluntary Inter-industry Commerce Standards) 1988

(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment CPFR)

CPFR

CPFR

129

130

[10]

(Category Management,CM)

(Vendor Management Inventory, VMI) (Efficiency

Consumer Response,ECR) (Just

In Time,JIT)

VICS(The Voluntary Inter- industry Commerce Standards) 1988

(Collaborative Planning, Forecasting and Replenishment CPFR) CM VMI

ECR JIT CPFR

CPFR

Lapide[7] Sell-One-Make-One

MaCarthy Golicic[8] CPFR

CPFR

2004

5

[14]

CPFR

CPFR

CPFR

1 CPFR -

2 CPFR -

[13]

MAPE

131

132

1

2

3 CPFR

4 5

3

2005

[37]

[39] (1) (2)

(3) (4) (5) (6)

(7) (8) (9)

CPFR

CPFR VICS 1998 CPFR(Collaborative Planning,

Forecasting, and Replenishment) ( )

[26]

(Demand-Driven) [31] CPFR

CPFR

CPFR

[38]

CPFR

133

134

[40] [45]

(Neural Network) [50] [32]

[33] [29]

[50]

(Prediction) (Forecasting)

[34]

[46]

Chamber [2] (Qualitative Methods)

(Time Series Analysis &Projection) (Causal

Methods)DeLurgio[30]

[49]

(Inter-industry Analysis) (Analysis of Econometric

Model)

[44] (Fuzzy Theory)

(Delphi Method)

2000 1 2004 12 60 ( )

12 60 2

1~48 49~60 MAPE

1~48 0.1

36 MAPE 49~60

10 5

5 10

5

MAPE =0.1 =0.1 =0.8

2

29~34

=0.1 =0.1 =0.8 49~60 MAPE 11.22034%

135

136

2

1~48 0.1

19 MAPE 49~60

5 6

6 5

MAPE =0.75 3

3

GM(1,1)

4 5 6 7 8 48

MAPE GM(1,1) a=0 GM(1,1)

0

b GM(1,1)

MAPE 7 4

7 GM(1,1)

4 GM(1,1)

13~16

5

5 49~60

MAPE 16.6822%

GM(1,N) 12

137

138

AS

MS

VS

MC

VC

A I

MI

V I

H 1 0

P 1 0

B -

ER

11 48 GM(1,11)

8

8

5

5 GM(1,11)

GM(1,11) 49~60 MAPE 9.446812%

[23] GM(1,N)

12 a 9

9

[42] 10 [27] 0.6

0.6

0.6 4 GM(1,4)

139

140

6

10 11

6 GM(1,4)

GM(1,4) GM(1,11) 49~60 MAPE

8.376746% GM(1,11) 11

4 GM(1,4)

10

logMs(t)=b0+b1 logAS(t)+b2 logVS(t)+b3 MC(t)

+b4 VC(t)+b5 AI(t)+b6 MI(t)+b7 VI(t)

+b8 H(t)+b9 P(t)+b10 logB(t)+b11 logER(t)

1~48

SPSS

(Variance Inflation Factor,VIF)

11

11

VIF 10 VIF 7.975~1.140

49~60 MAPE

6.091019% 7

141

142

CPFR

GM(1,N)

GM(1,1)

GM(1,N)

CPFR

143

144

1 Anderson,E.& Simester,D. Minding Your Pricing Cues, Harvard business Review, September , 7-14,2003.

2 Caire, P., G. Hatabian, and C. Muller, Progress in Forecasting by Neural Networks,International Joint Conference on Neural Network,540-545, 1992.

3 Diane, E. K., Machine Learning , Training & Development Journal, Vol. 44, No. 12, pp.24-29,Dec. 1990

4 Douglas, C. M. and A. P. Elizabeth, Introduction To Linear Regression Analysis , WileyInter. Science, New York, 1992.

5 Henson, T., W. Huxhold, and D. Bowman, An enhanced neural network learning algorithm

with simulated annealing , Third Workshop on Neural Networks, 87-94, Feb., 1992.

6 Huan, J. S. and T. L. James, and P. W. Trefor, Using Neural Networks to Predict Component

Inspection Requirements for Aging Aircraft, Computers Ind. Engng, Vol. 30, No. 2, 257-267, 1996..

7 Lapide, L., New Developments in Business Forecasting : Debunking executive conventional

wistom ,The journal of business forecasting, vol.19,No.2,pp.16-17, 2000

8 MaCarthy,T.M.and Golicic,S.L., Implementing Collaborative Forecasting to Improve

Supply Chain Performance , International Journal of Physical Distribution&Logistics Management,vol.32,No.6,pp.431-454, 2002

9 Nolan, W. Jr., Game Plan for A Successful Collaboration Forecasting process ,the Journalof Business Forecasting, Spring pp.2-6,2001

10 Still, Richard R., Edward W. Coundiff and Norman A. P. Govoni, Sales Management , Prentice-Hall, 1988.

11 Strasheim, J. J., Demand Forecasting For Motor Vehicle Spare Parts, University of Pretoria, South Africa ,1992.

12 Tae, Hoo-Oum, Alternative Demand Models and Their Elasticity Estimates, Journal of Transport Economics & Policy, Vol.23, Iss.2, 163-187, May 1989.

13 VICS Association, http://www.vics.org/

1

2 3C CPFR

2004

3 J2EE

2004

4

2004

5

2004

6 CPFR

2003

7

2003

8

2002

9

2002

10 -

2001

11

2001

12

2001

13 CPFR

2001

14

2000

15 7 2000

16

57-64 1999 10

17 DeLurgio, S. A. 1999 3

18

145

146

1998

19

1998

20

1998

21

1997

22

1997

23

1997 6

24 2005 - ( )

1997 10

25

1996 5

26

1995

27

77-116 1995 1

28 1995

29 1994 9

30

I AHP ARIMA

1994

31

1994

32 77-78 1993 4

33 1992 2

34

199 6

35 1988 3

36 1976

37 1972 4