DP-Net Consultation DP-Net Consultation WorkshopWorkshop

Climate Change and DisasterClimate Change and Disaster

ActivitiesActivities Inception Workshop Induction Workshop Literature Review Transect Exercise (Gandak, Karnali and Koshi) Regional Workshop Synthesis Workshop Wider Reference group consultation workshop Consultation with the group members

IntroductionCountry Background

Climatic ConditionRegions Ecological zones Climate

High Himal Mountain Tundra-type & Arctic

High Mountains Alpine/Sub-alpine

Middle mountain Hill Cool temperate monsoon/Warm temperate monsoon

Siwalik Hills Terai Hot monsoon & Subtropical

Terai Hot monsoon & Tropical

Average of 30 years data (1976-2005), Monthly Rainfall (166 stations)Practical Action, 2009

140.6

295

496.5

423.2

263.5

1767.5 11.560.434.52621.9

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Months

Rain

fall

(mm

)

Disaster Scenario

Climate Induced Disasters Floods/flash floods/Glacial lake outburst flood/Avala

nche Landslides Forest fire/wild fire Hailstorm/Windstrorm/Thunderbolt Drought Outbreak of certain diseases

Floods/flash floodsFloods/flash floods Impact is all over the country Among 75 districts, 49 are prone to floods High impact in Terai Associated with rise in river bed level, bank cutting, s

iltation and deposition of silt on the fertile land Higher loss of lives and properties More impact on Agriculture production, Infrastructur

e, Destruction of country transportation network

SarlahiRautahatChitwanSaptari

DhanusaMahottari

SunsariSindhuli

MakwanpurParsaSiraha

MorangJhapa

NawalparasiBardiya

UdayapurRupandehi

TanahuKailali

KanchanpurSyangjaDailekhLalitpur

DangBara

BankeSindhupalchok

KavrepalanchokKathmandu

Kaski

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from FloodsFloods

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from FloodsFloods

Glacial lake outburst floodsGlacial lake outburst floods

By breaking the natural moraine dams Impact on the down stream community GLOF potential lakesTsho Rolpa, Imja, Thulagi, Lumding, Lower

Barun and West Chamjang

Landslides/debris flowLandslides/debris flow

Higher loss of lives (211 lives per annum) High Impact on mountain and hill region Major Highway linking the roads are

vulnerable

District vulnerability from District vulnerability from LandslidesLandslides

Makwanpur DhadingSyangja

KavrepalanchokSindhupalchok

BaglungKaski

DolakhaKhotang

TaplejungOkhaldhungaRamechhap

ArghakhanchiBhojpur

Panchthar

SankhuwasabhaNuwakot

GulmiPalpa

MyagdiLamjungParbat

SolukhumbuSindhuliDailekh

DarchulaGorkhaTanahuJajarkot

Doti

Thunderstorm/windstorm/hailstormThunderstorm/windstorm/hailstorm Thunderstorm- Claims lives Windstorm- Claims lives and public

properties Hailstorm- Destruction of crops specially in

the mountainous district

Drought Affects a large number of populations Out of 75 district 40 district are food deficit

Heat and Cold Wave

Lives killer Now cold wave is getting severe

Forest fire

Increasing tendency of forest fire Last year it claimed 43 lives and caused a loss of abo

ut Rs 134,415,000

Outbreak of Certain Diseases

Disaster wise estimated losses (2001-2008) Disaster wise estimated losses (2001-2008) NRsx106NRsx106

Year Floods and Landslides

Fires Wind, Hail and Thunderstorm

Earthquake

2001 919.4 239.25 128.32 1.99

2002 251.09 246.25 38.69 3.82

2003 4169.51 94.74 11.91 0

2004 234.78 734.96 20.17 0

2005 219.29 121.03 0.77 0

2006 131.56 247.75 2.65 0

2007 1831.54 228.76 24.15 0.07

2008 1538.04 803.22 149.17 0

Impacts of Climate Change

Climate change will be expected to alter both rainfall and snowfall patterns.

The temperature will increase and cause a warming over the entire country.

The rate of temperature increase is greater in

higher altitudes and in the winter.

Pattern of temperature increase Pattern of temperature increase (1977-1994) (1977-1994)

(Shrestha et al 1999)(Shrestha et al 1999)

Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual Districts with high increasing and decreasing trends of annual temperaturetemperature

Annual Temperature High increasing trend High decreasing trend

Maximum Dhankuta, Dadeldhura and Okhaldhunga Sankhuwasabha, Sunsari, Nawalparasi, Banke, Bardiya

Minimum Lamjung, southern parts of Nuwakot, Chitwan and Dhanusa

Doti, Sankhuwasabha and northern parts of Nuwakot

Mean Dhankuta and Lamjung Sankhuwasabha, Doti and northern parts of Nuwakot

General Circulation Models (GCM) projections indicate an increase in temperature over Nepal of 0.5-2.0 °C, with a multi-model mean of 1.4 °C, by the 2030s, rising to 3.0-6.3 °C, with a multi-model mean of 4.7 °C, by the 2090s. There is very little differentiation in projected multi-model mean temperature changes in different regions (East, Central, West) of 　 Nepal. 　

GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot days (the hottest 5% of days in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 55% by the 2060s and 70% by the 2090s GCM outputs suggest that extremely hot nights (the hottest 5% of nights in the period 1970-1999) are projected to increase by up to 77% by the 2060s and 93% by the 2090.

GCMs project a wide range of precipitation changes, especially in the monsoon: -14 to +40% by the 2030s increasing -52 to 135% by the 2090s

Extreme weather events such as droughts, storms, floods/inundation, and avalanches are expected to increase along with river side erosion.

Glacial melt in Himalaya will increase flooding and avalanches (Dig Tsho GLOF event of 1985). This will be followed by decreased river flows and water supplies, as the glacier recede.

The receding of the glacier will result changes in regional water resources and these are projected to have negative impacts on hydropower generation, irrigation, and drinking water supply, which exacerbates the already constrained access to water down streams.

High intensity rainfall will trigger the landslides events on the hill and mountains regions. (Matatirtha landslide event of 2002)

High intensity rainfall in the hill regions consequently causes floods in Terai (Flood events of 1993)

Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) Extreme 24 hours rainfall (mm) distributiondistribution

Practical Action 2009Practical Action 2009

Due to decrease in gradient flow of river while entering Terai plain from the steep hill region, Terai will be highly impacted with rise in river bed level, which consequently causes inundation and results in destruction of agriculture land. (Koshi Inundation of 2008)

Washing away big area of cultivated land along with the houses including livestock and inhabitants and damage to settlements and disruption of other infrastructures in particular transport and trade due to flooding is an additional potential impact of climate change.

Influence on the agriculture, forestry, bio-diversity and outbreak of the certain water and vector borne diseases are also the other potential impacts of the climate change.

Temperature rise can accelerate drying of biomasses, which will increase the incidences of forest fires across the nation. (Last year forest fire, this year forest fire)

Decrease rainfall, snowfall and increase of temperature will increase the incidence of drought.

Factors Related to vulnerability

Poverty and Economic hardship

Insufficient knowledge on disaster management/Low literacy rates

Poor quality physical infrastructure; prevalence of non-engineered construction

Inadequate forecasting facilities

Unplanned settlement; development of settlements and public services in hazardous areas and marginal lands

Deforestation/More dependency on natural resources

Inadequate awareness and concentration of knowledge only in academic centers

Rapid population growth, Population migration/displacement with the deterioration of livelihood opportunities

Land degradation caused by human activities including build settlements, cultivation of steep slopes, fuel wood collection

Acts

Natural Calamity Relief Act 1982Though amended twice (1989, 1992) still mostly focused

on the rescue and relief

Local Self-Governance Act 1999The duties and responsibilities of each of the local bodies

(VDC, DDC and municipalities) are not clearly stated in disaster management

National Strategy for Disaster Risk Management (NSDRM) based on HFA principle

The focus of disaster management in Nepal is changing from reactive (relief and response) to proactive (preparedness) risk reduction, as can be seen in the NSDRM

The Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the national agency responsible for coordination of various aspects of disaster management, including preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation of disasters.

Some Undertaken Local Some Undertaken Local Coping/Adaptation OptionCoping/Adaptation Option

Conduction of awareness raising programme Provision of irrigation system to cope with changi

ng rainfall Mapping of flood hazards Afforestation Priority given for the preparedness programme Construction of embankments, check dams and sp

urs to limit the negative impacts of flooding and river site cutting

Rain Water Harvesting and Soil Moisture Conservation Improvement of Degraded Land Mitigation of River Bank Cutting Slope Stabilization and Management Construction of house with higher plinth level Initiation of programme like food for work for post disa

ster phase Initiation of the community fund in some places

Suggested Adaptation options

Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation options with HFA principle

Developing and implementing land use/zoning policies Maintaining up to date hazard and vulnerability maps Training and capacity building for disaster and water resource

management Working with the community to increase public awareness and

develop early warning systems and evacuation plans Afforestation and reforestation programs (for reduction of floo

ding/landslide risk) Proactive and inclusive efforts to prioritize the need of the poo

r women Forecasting and disaster preparedness for GLOF, flooding and

drought events Livelihood diversification

Cross-cutting issues such as Gender and Social inclusion, Human Rights and Protection, need to be considered in the policy level

Coordination between all the stakeholders to lessen the gap between the grass-root level public and policy makers

Proper training towards the adopting proper agriculture practices, watershed management, agro-forestry, soil conservation, wetland management and fire prevention techniques, as well as supporting sustainable use of natural resources and biodiversity conservation

Revision and proper implementation of the existing national and international act and policy.

Implementation of hydro-meteorological information system Enhancement of indigenous knowledge and technology

Identified Adaptation OptionIdentified Adaptation OptionClimate Change

Impacts Adaptation options

Increase in intense rainfall

Floods 1. Enhance the capacity of all the water-induced disaster related institutions 2. Strengthen early warning system and forecasting

3. Promotion of reforestation/afforestation programme

4. Implementation of structural measures 5. Conservation of Churia/Siwalik regions

6. Strengthen the capacity and coordination of CBOs, NGOs, INGOs, local authorities, professional societies for disaster management networking

7. Hazard/vulnerability mapping and zoning

8. Discouraging and restricting settlements in high risks-areas9. Establishment and management of emergency supply ware house10. Making preparations for emergency response, relief and rehabilitation measures 11. Activation of inundation committee

12. Clearing water logging13. Resettlement of vulnerable community14. Implementation of the building codes

Landslides 1. Hazard mapping and Risk zoning2. Awareness raising3. Discouraging and restricting people living in high risk areas

4. Resettlement of the vulnerable community

5. Promotion of afforestation /reforestation programme and bioengineering technique

6. Implementation of structural measures

7. Inventory on landslides8. Implementation and promotion of water harvesting system and conservation ponds

9. Improvement of the degraded land10. Promotion of slope stabilization and proper agriculture practice

Outbreak of the epidemics

1. Awareness raising

2. Provision of the food/clean drinking water

3. Promotion of Community level waste management

4. Provision of emergency health care

No rainfall/Increase of temperature

Drought 1. Identification of Potential drought prone area

2. Forecasting

3. Livelihood diversification

4. Distribution of drought resistant crops species

5. Provision of food aid

Forest Fire 1. Awareness raising

2. Conservation/promotion of afforestation reforestation programme

3. Forest fire control

Increase of Temperature GLOF/Avalanche 1. GLOF/Avalanche mitigation

2.Awareness Raising

3. Early warning system and forecasting

Heat wave 1. Awareness raising

2. Reforestation/Afforestation

Other climatic factors Cold wave 1. Awareness raising

2. Provision of the warm clothes

Hailstorm/Windstorm andThunderbolt

1. Provision of Insurance

2. Community based fund

3. Livelihood diversification

4. Weather forecasting

Thank you very muchThank you very much