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Health Effects of Air Pollution
in the Region of Lombardy, Italy
Pier Alberto Bertazzi ‘Clinica del Lavoro Luigi Devoto’
Università degli Studi & Fondazione Ca’ Granda Policlinico, Milan
Milan - November 25th, 2014
The Costs of Air Pollution: A Forgotten Problem Università Commerciale L. Bocconi - Fondazione IRCCS Ca’ Granda - Peripato
Lombardy Region, Italy
-‐ Nearly 10 million people -‐ Area 23,865 km² -‐ Pop. density 412 inh./km² Rank first for: -‐ PopulaFon, -‐ Gross internal Product
(20% of the naFonal GP), -‐ GP per capita (€ 33,648).
Capital city Milan (1.3 million), greater Milan 4.5 millions.
Territory: -‐ Alps 40.5%,
-‐ River Po plains 47%.
Rich agriculture, advanced services, very acFve commercial and industrial sectors (sme).
Unfavourable climate: basin with liVle rain and poor winds.
Lombardy Region, Italy
Po River basin is bordered on three sides by mountains and Atlan9c weather disturbances are frequently unable to cross the Alpine barrier, consequently providing no air mass exchange. Unfavourable context and climate characteris9cs favour a high level of air pollu9on
The red and dark red dots indicate sta9ons repor9ng exceedances of the 2010 annual target value (25μg/m3), as set out in the Air Quality Direc9ve (EU, 2008).
Annual Mean Concentra9ons PM2.5 in EUROPE 2011
EEA, 2013
Annual Mean Concentra9ons PM2.5 in ITALY 2010
Modello MINNI (Modello Integrato Nazionale). Zanini et al. 2011
4x4Km Model
Predicted Annual Average Concentra9on of PM10 levels in Lombardy, by municipality (2007)
Milan
Predicted Annual Average Concentra9on of NO2 levels in Lombardy, by municipality (2007)
Milan
Health Impact of Air Pollu9on in the Lombardy Region -‐ Ra9onale • Health impact assessment (HIA): essenFal informaFon to decision makers for the development of public health policies.
• Air pollu9on: small individual risks, considerable public health consequences.
Baccini M. et al. Am J Epidem 2011, 2014
Number of health events a\ributable to PM10 exposure Whole Lombardy Region (9,642,406 inhabitants in (2007
Cause 40µg/m3
Limit (EU) 20% reduc9on if >40µg/m3
20µg/m3
Limit (WHO) 20% reduc9on if >20µg/m3
N ACR* N ACR* N ACR* N ACR*
Mortality
Natural 173 1.8 162 1.7 709 7.4 258 2.7
Cardiovascular 43 0.4 41 0.4 203 2.1 76 0.8
Respiratory 56 0.6 53 0.5 243 2.5 91 0.9
Hospital admissions
Cardiac 44 0.5 41 0.4 192 2.0 70 0.7
Cerebrovascular 60 0.6 57 0.6 274 2.8 102 1.1
Respiratory 193 2.0 182 1.9 861 8.9 318 3.3
*ACR: AEributable Community Rate per 100,000
A\ributable Community Rate (ACR) x 100,000 Natural mortality under PM10<40µg/m3 scenario
Lombardy Region (year (2007
Cause 40µg/m3 Limit (EU)
20% reduc9on if >40µg/m3
N ACR* N ACR*
Mortality
Natural 450 4.7 307 3.2 Cardiovascular 239 2.5 165 1.7
Respiratory 24 0.2 17 0.2
Hospital admissions
Cardiac 471 4.9 324 3.4
Cerebrovascular 286 3.0 197 2.0
Respiratory 471 4.9 322 3.3
*ACR: AEributable Community Rate per 100,000
Number of health events a\ributable to NO2 exposure Whole Lombardy Region (9,642,406 inhabitants in (2007
A\ributable Community Rate (ACR) x 100,000 Natural mortality under NO2<40 µg/m3 scenario
Lombardy Region (year (2007
Health Impact of Air Pollu9on in the Lombardy Region -‐ Conclusions
• Exceedance of EU 40μg/m3 limit has a clearly measurable impact on populaFon health: – PM10 responsible for 2 deaths (3 H admissions) per 100,000 person/year;
– NO2 responsible for 5 deaths (13 H admissions) per 100,000 person/year.
• A 20% reducFon in the exisFng PM10 and NO2 levels could substanFally reduce the burden of short-‐term deaths associated to ambient air polluFon.
• Policies for the reducFon of air polluFon appear to be necessary, and their implementaFon will be rewarding in terms of the protecFon and improvement of individual and community health.
Commu9ng-‐adjusted short term health impact assessment of airborne fine par9cles
allowing uncertainty propaga9on. • Annual averages of PM10 exceeding the WHO recommended threshold of 20µg/m3 were responsible of 865 (80% CI: 475, 1401) short-‐term deaths, the 26% of which aVributable to averages exceeding the EU limit of 40µg/m3.
• A 20% reducFon of the PM10 level would have saved 36% of these events.
• The largest impact was along the basin of the Po river and in the largest ciFes.
• CommuFng visibly contributed to the spaFal distribuFon of the impact.
Baccini M. et al. Am J Epidem 2014
PM10 – Annual Mean Concentra9ons 2007
Nostra Elaborazione su daK ARPA Lombardia
Lombardy Region (year (2007
Milan
PM10 – Annual Mean Concentra9ons 2013
Nostra Elaborazione su daK ARPA Lombardia
PM10 – Annual Mean Concentra9ons 2014
Nostra Elaborazione su daK ARPA Lombardia