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19 July 2013 Infrastructure in Africa Conflicts and Instability impact on and solutions for development of infrastructure G20 Africa Infrastructure Investment Conference

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Old Kuala Lumpur 2

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Kuala Lumpur today by night 3

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Kuala Lumpur today by day before a storm 4

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War what is it good for absolutely nothing!! Nearly half of the continent's 53 countries are home to an active conflict or a recently ended one; Mali, Uganda, Niger, Boko Haram, Sudan, Somalia etc. etc. Quiet places such as Tanzania are the lonely exceptions; Even user-friendly, tourist-filled Kenya blew up in 2008; A death toll of tens of thousands of civilians each year; More than 5 million have died in Congo alone since 1998, the International Rescue Committee has estimated; Boko Haram: 2011 Boko Haram struck 115 times and killed 550 people; UNCTAD report, FDI flows to Nigeria fell to $6.1 billion (N933.3 billion) in 2010, a decline of about 29 per cent from the $8.65 billion (N1.33 trillion) realized in 2009 fiscal year. 5

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Chin Peng 6

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Malayan (Malaysia!!!) emergency Cut the insurgents off from their supporters amongst the population; Establishment of new villages; Cutting off food supply; Winning hearts and minds (Sir Gerald Templar); Improving livelihood, education, food etc.; Building new infrastructure; 7

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The bad news.. Investment is an aspect of financial tourism, it settles where it finds peace!! War and conflict (usually) = no investment [Miners may be a different breed!] Out of war: Poor regulatory framework; Poor governance; Low technical skills; High unemployment. 8

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.. and the good news Out of chaos come opportunities. Many opportunities to make significant returns but investors still want protection. 9

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The opportunity Infrastructure Critical to economic growth; Low skills but high labour requirements = creation of employment: Absorb demobilised combatants and returning refugees; PR advantages creation of employment; Builds political capital next elections; Lays foundations for growth and development. Makeni, Sierra Leone bio-energy/power/irrigation project 2011: former headquarters town of the rebel Revolutionary United Front (RUF); drove people away from their homes; burned down the government buildings, police stations and official residences but left the ordinary houses intact; At end 2012, employed approximately 1,366 people; Will create about 2,000 jobs when fully operational. 10

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But who finances it and bears risks? 11

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Private sector. 12

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What the UN says .. UN officials - development banks dont assume enough of risk. Investors need more guarantees that their projects wont suffer losses from political or legal changes in Africas poorest nations - Mohamed El- Ashry, a senior fellow at the United Nations Foundation. International institutions should shoulder more of those risks - Achim Steiner, executive director of the UN Environment Program. Public private partnerships are not working because of too much risk on the private investors. Achim Steiner again. 13

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Real change comes from within! Africa will conquer hunger when African governments give Africans the tools and resources they need to feed themselves. Change - real change - comes from within. Kanayo Nwanze, IFAD President commenting on the situation in the Horn of Africa, 22 August 2011 In Rwanda, we work to own our development process President Paul Kagame of Rwanda 14

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MIGA - aaaaah!!! Political risk insurance. Halo effect - MIGAs status as a member of the World Bank Group and its relationship with shareholder governments provides additional leverage in protecting investments. Expensive (can be as high as 20-25% of loan amount). Stringent environmental criteria Equator Principles/World Bank. Commercial PRI more suited for smaller transactions with shorter lead times, availability when financial close is uncertain/takes a long time is an issue. 15

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Investment treaties Bilateral or multilateral. Varying levels of protection do your DD. Governments promote/sign investment treaties to encourage FDI. Investors look to countries with strong investment treaties. Analysis required. Contracting party? Investment structuring e.g. through Mauritius. 16 19 July 2013

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M Nigeria to Libya Part 1 17 Michael Schabas - FCP

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Nigeria to Libya Part 2 - Trans-Sahara 2020 Vision LIBYA TO CALABAR SHORTEST ROUTE ACROSS WEST AFRICA LINKS AFRICAS LARGEST WORKFORCE TO THE WORLDS BUSIEST SHIPPING ROUTES NO MOUNTAINS, BUT LOTS OF DESERT $3 BILLION MORE? 18

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Africa needs a push Africa is rising, and it needs a push. The rest of the world is languishing, and it too needs a push. Africa needs the world, and the world needs Africa. Each can give the other a push. AfDB President, Donald Kaberuka 19

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GDP 20

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Ride the bumps "If you want to ride Africas business boom, choose your country well and be ready for bumps on the road. But the momentum is upward and you will be rewarded if you stay the course!!!" REUTERS SUMMIT 2013 - Investing in Africa: mind the bumps and rewards will come 21

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22 Dentons in Africa

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Dentons offices across the Globe 23

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Dentons in Africa 24 Africa presents some of the most dynamic markets in the world. At a time of growth, positive change and new opportunities, you need an innovative team with deep experience to help you achieve your goals. Whether you are currently in Africa or have potential interests on the continent, we are well positioned to fulfill a complete range of transactions and advisory work. Our presence spans the continent's Anglophone, Francophone and Lusophone regions, as well as the key commercial centers around the world that engage in business and investment in Africa.

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What others say about us 25 Best Pan-African Law Firm - Capital markets and corporate (third consecutive year) - emeafinance magazine Best Law Firm in Africa 2011 - emeafinance magazine The firm has a long history of involvement in Africa and also has an extensive network of associated firms in Africa, giving clients access to substantial local expertise. - client quote, Chambers Global 2013 (independent legal guide) Dentons has a really dedicated practice - they've been involved for a long time - client quote, Chambers Global 2013 (independent legal guide) amazing lawyers who have a "clear understanding of the challenges involved in working in emerging markets - Chambers 2013 (independent legal guide) Established as one of the leaders for work in Africa - Legal 500 (independent legal guide) has both the network and the focus on the issues that define these jurisdictions to give it a competitive edge in Africa - Legal 500 (independent legal guide) Thanks to a strong network of associations this experienced firm has the ability to provide seamless, high-quality advice throughout the continent - Legal 500 (independent legal guide

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The poor will have nothing to eat but the rich!!! 26

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28 Raj Kulasingam 28 Raj Kulasingam Dentons Energy Infrastructure and Project Finance Phone: +44 20 7246 7596 Email: raj.kulasingam@dentons.com Raj specialises in infrastructure and utility projects in the power, transport (road and rail), water, waste and oil and gas sectors. He has deep understanding and experience of concessions and the regulation of the utility and transport sectors and PFI/PPP projects. He has been advising on PFI/PPP projects since 1995 and has advised on numerous ground breaking PFI/PPP projects in the UK, Middle East, Far East and Africa acting for a mixture of developers, sponsors, lenders and governments. He has been working on projects in Africa since 2005 and is a frequent speaker and commentator on Africa related issues. He is frequently on the ground in Africa and writes a monthly column on PPP/infrastructure projects in a leading Nigerian journal (Financial Nigeria). His current work includes advising on the Blue Line Metro Project in Nigeria, an investment in an IPP in Nigeria, a police PPP project in Uganda, a Nigerian oil and gas IPO, a hydro project in Zambia and a sulfation plant in Malaysia.

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Thank you Dentons UKMEA LLP One Fleet Place London EC4M 7WS United Kingdom 2013 Dentons. This publication is not designed to provide legal or other advice and you should not take, or refrain from taking, action based on its content. Attorney Advertising. Please see dentons.com for Legal Notices. Dentons is an international legal practice providing client services worldwide through its member firms and affiliates. Dentons UKMEA LLP is a limited liability partnership registered in England and Wales under no. OC322045. It is authorised and regulated by the Solicitors Regulation Authority. A list of its members is open for inspection at its registered office: One Fleet Place, London EC4M 7WS. Any reference to a "partner" means a person who is a partner, member, consultant or employee with equivalent standing and qualifications in one of Dentons' affiliates.