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9 Mega Technology Trends
And How They Are Re-Shaping Our World
Bernard Marr
© Bernard Marr, 2018
Disclaimer We have taken great care to ensure that the information contained in this eBook is accurate at the time of publication, and the publisher and author cannot accept responsibility for any errors or omissions, however caused. No responsibility for loss or damage occasioned to any person acting, or refraining from action, as a result of the material in this publication can be accepted by the editor, the publisher or the author.
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9MegaTechnologyTrends
AndHowTheyAreRe-ShapingOurWorld
Howwework.Howweplay.Howwemeetpeople.Howwe
communicate.HowwegetfromAtoB.Howwetakecareof
ourhealth.Prettymucheveryfacetofhumanlifehasbeen
impacted,alteredand(generally,atleastfromaconvenience
pointofview)improvedbytechnology.Butnotalltechtrends
arecreatedequal.Someblowupinafrenzyofhypeandthen
quietlyfadewhenthenextbigthingcomesalong(MiniDiscs
anyone?Myspace?).Othersaresoutterlytransformative,like
theInternet,thattheyfundamentallychangeourworldand
thewayweliveinit.
Inthisbook,Iexaminenineofthebiggest,mostseismictech
trendsthatwilldefine2018andbeyond.FromtheBigData
explosionandthethreat(oropportunity,dependingonwhich
sideofthefenceyousit)ofincreasingautomation,to
potentiallyhugeinventionslikeblockchainorquantum
computing,we’lllearnwhatthesetrendsare,howthey’re
changingtheworld–andwhatallthismeansforyou,your
careerandyourbusiness.
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TREND1:THEINCREASINGDATAFICATIONOFOURLIVES,
ANDHOWWE’REALLLEAVINGOUR(DIGITAL)MARK
Youcarryyoursmartphonewithyouasyouwalktothetrain
stationinthemorning.Youbuyacoffeewithyourcontactless
debitcardwhenyougetthere.Onceonthetrain,youreada
fewnewsarticlesonyourphone.Maybeyoucheckoutwhat
yourfriendsareuptoonsocialmedia,orarrangeyourFriday
nightdrinksviaWhatsApp.Youshoponlineinyourlunch
break.Ormaybeyoueatyourlunchintheparkandsharea
photoofwhatabeautifuldayitis.Attheendofyourbusy
day,maybeyougoforalongrun,trackingyourprogresson
yourFitbitorasmartphoneapp.Ormaybeyoujustcrashin
frontofyoursmartTV,orderatakeawayviatheJustEatapp,
andyouloseyourselfinagoodNetflixseries.
That’swhatdataficationmeansinreallife.Asmoreandmore
ofourlivesinvolvesomekindofdigitalelement,thatmeans
thatalmosteverythingwedothesedaysleavesadigital
footprint–atrailofdatabreadcrumbs,ifyoulike.Asaresult,
we’reinthemidstofanunprecedentedexplosionindata.And
theamountofdataavailableisonlygoingtoincrease.
Inthischapter,wetakealookattheever-expandingpoolof
datawefindourselvesin(indeed,thatweourselvesare
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creating),andlookatsomeoftheinnovativewaysthatdatais
beingputtogooduse.
That’snotloveallaroundus,it’sdata
Whenyouthinkaboutit,it’snowonderwehavesomuchdata
onourhands.Justconsiderwhathappensintheaverage
minute(yes,justtheaverage60seconds)online:1
• Facebookreceives900,000logins
• 452,000Tweetsareposted(notallofthembyDonald
Trump,itjustfeelsthatway)
• 156millionemailsaresent
• Googlereceives3.5millionsearchqueries
• 4.1millionvideosareviewedonYouTube(presumably,
4millionofwhicharecatsdoingcutethings)
• Over15milliontextmessagesaresent
Asanindicatorofhowfastthevolumeofdataisexpanding,
let’slingeronthatlaststatistic.Morethan15milliontexts
weresentperminutein2017.In2016,thatnumberwasjust
1https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/08/what-happens-in-an-internet-minute-in-2017
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3.5million.That’sa334percentincreaseinthecourseofone
year.Andit’sjustthetipoftheiceberg.
Thesheervolumeofdatathatwe’recreating,andtherateat
whichthatvolumeisaccelerating,issostaggeringthat90
percentofthedataavailableintheworldtodaywasgenerated
inthelasttwoyears.2We’reessentiallydoublingtheamount
ofdatawehaveavailableeverytwoyears.
There’saclassicmathematicalproblemthatillustratesthis
growthperfectly.Pictureachessboardwithits64squaresand
imagineyou’regoingtoplacericeoneachsquareanddouble
thenumberofgrainswitheachsquare(so,onegrainonthe
firstsquare,twograinsonthesecondsquare,fouronthenext
square,andsoon).Simple,right?Notexactly.Bytheendof
thefirstrow,you’dbestrugglingtofitthegrainsonthe
square.Bythe64thsquare,youwouldhaveused
18,446,744,073,709,551,615grainsofrice–morethanany
countrycouldconceivableproduce.Andallfromalittle
harmlessdoubling.
Whyarewegeneratingsomuchdatatoday?Mostlyit’sdueto
theriseofcomputers,smartphones,theInternet,andother
technologicaladvances(suchassensors),thatarecapableof
2http://www.iflscience.com/technology/how-much-data-does-the-world-generate-every-minute/
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capturinginformationfromtherealworldandtranslatingit
intodata.
BigDatainanutshell
WhenpeopletalkaboutBigData,whatthey’regenerally
referringtoistheexponentialexplosionintheamountofdata
we’regeneratinginthisdigitalage–aswellasourincreasing
abilitytoanalyseandgatherinsightsfromthatdata,anduse
themtoouradvantage.Inthisway,databringsincredible
opportunitiestobetterunderstandourworldandchangethe
wayweliveinit.
Theterm‘BigData’hasbeenaroundforyearsnow,but
there’sstillconfusionaboutwhatitactuallymeans.The
conceptitselfisstillevolvingasit’srelatedtosomanyfast-
movingwavesofdigitaltransformation,suchasartificial
intelligence(AI).WhenexpertsfirststartedtalkingaboutBig
Data,itwassometimesdismissedasafadortrendytechterm
thatwouldsoonbeforgotteninfavourof‘thenextbigthing’.
Butthathasn’thappened.Infact,whennewtechbuzzwords
comealong,BigDataisprettymuchthedrivingforcebehind
allofthem.
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HowdoesBigDatawork?
BigDataisbuiltontheideathat,themoreyouknowabout
something(i.e.themoredatayoucangather),thebetter
positionedyouaretogainnewinsights,andthenmake
predictionsaboutwhatwillhappeninthefuture.Thisis
possiblebecause,bycomparingmoredatapoints,youcan
spotrelationshipsthatwerepreviouslyhidden.Wecanlearn
fromtheserelationshipsbetweendatapoints,andbasefuture
predictionsordecisionsonthem.
Therefore,it’sBigDatathatfuelsthoseNetflix
recommendationsyouseewhenyouswitchonyourTV,orthe
targetedadsyouseewhenyougoonline,orthe‘Peopleyou
mayknow’featureinLinkedIn.Mostexcitingofall,thepower
oftoday’sadvancedBigDataandanalyticstechnologymeans
thisprocessisentirelyautomated.
Exploringthedifferenttypesofdata
Thefactthatwe’releavingalargerdigitalfootprintthanever
beforecreatesmanynewtypesofdatathatcanbeanalysed.
TheinterestingthingaboutBigDataisthat,increasingly,all
thisdataiscomingtousinanunstructuredform,meaningit
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can’tbeeasilyclassifiedintoastructuredtablewithrowsand
columns(likeaspreadsheet).Muchofthedatawe’re
generatingisintheformofpicturesandvideos,audio
conversationsandcommands,ortextcommunications
(anythingfromemailsandtextstosocialmediamessages).
Thisunstructureddataisbigger,moreunwieldyandmore
challengingtoanalyse,whichiswhereadvancesincomputing
powerandotherdevelopmentslikeAIcomeintoplay–more
ontheselater.
Sowhataresomeofthemorerecenttypesofdatathatwe
nowhavethecomputingandanalyticpowertoharness?Let’s
takealookatsomeofthemostprevalentdatatypes:
• Activitydata:Thisistherecordofyouractivitiesor
actionsthatoccur,eitheronlineorinthephysical
world.Itcanthereforecoveranythingfromtheorder
inwhichyouwalkaroundyourlocalsupermarket,and
theitemsyoubuy,toanytimeyouswiperighton
Tinder.
• Conversationdata:Thisdoesn’tjustapplytoanout-
loudconversation,likewhenyoucallacustomer
servicecentre.Itcanalsorefertoanyconversationyou
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mayhaveinanyformat,fromatextmessageor
WhatsAppmessage,toanemailorsocialmediapost.
• Photoandvideodata:Ourever-increasingattachment
tooursmartphonesandthecommonplaceuseof
CCTVcameras(particularlyintheUK),meanswe’re
creatingmorephotoandvideoimagedatathanever.
• Sensordata:Aswe’llseeinthesecondchapterofthis
book,avastamountofdataisbeinggeneratedand
transmittedfromthesensorsthatareincreasingly
beingbuiltintoeverydayproducts,fromsmartphones
tosmartyogamats!
RememberthetypicalworkdayIstartedthischapterwith?
Let’srevisitthatintermsofthedatabeinggenerated:
• Youcarryyoursmartphonewithyouasyouwalkto
thestation(GPSdatafromthesensorinsideyour
phone).
• Youbuyacoffeewithyourcontactlessdebitcard
(activitydata).
• Youreadthenewsonyourphoneorcheckoutwhat
yourFacebookfriendsareupto(activitydata).
• YouarrangesomeFridaynightdrinksviaWhatsApp
(conversationdata).
• Youdoabitofonlineshoppingatlunch(activitydata).
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• OrtakeaphotointheparkanduploadittoFacebook
orInstagram(photodataand,potentially,conversation
data).
• Later,maybeyougoforarunwithyourFitbit(activity
data).
• OrmaybeyoujustcrashinfrontofNetflixwitha
takeaway(activitydata).
Now,businessesareevenleveragingthe‘finalfrontier’ofBig
Data:spacedata.Thankstothegrowingsophisticationand
decreasingcostofsatellitetechnology,morebusinessesare
usingdatafromspaceinpracticalwaysrighthereonEarth.In
retail,forexample,satellitedatacanbeusedtomonitorfoot
trafficaroundashoppingcentre.Orinrealestate,areasthat
arepronetofloodingorsinkholescanbemoreeasily
identified.
ThankstothelikesofaerospacemanufacturerSpaceX,
foundedbyTeslaentrepreneurElonMusk,pavingthewayfor
spaceinfrastructure,spacedataislikelytobecomeamuch
moreviableoptionformanybusinessesinthecomingyears.
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HowBigDataisbeingputtouse
Youmightbestartingtofeelalittlefreakedoutbythe
increasingamountofdataavailableaboutyoureveryday
actions,andthethoughtofbeingtrackedbysatellitesmaybe
isn’thelping.Sonowseemsagoodtimetoturntosomeofthe
incrediblypositivewaysBigDataistransformingourworld.As
wellasmakingoureverydayliveseasierandmoreconvenient,
BigDataprojectsaremakingarealdifferenceinareasas
diverseasspacetravelandcrimeprevention.
Data-drivenhealthcareforinstance,involvesanalysingvast
numbersofmedicalrecordsandscanimagesforpatternsthat
canhelpdoctorsspotsignsofdiseaseearlier,therefore
helpingtoincreasecancersurvivalrates.
BigDataishelpingtopredictearthquakes,andhelpaid
organisationsrespondtohumanitariandisastersbymonitoring
andsafeguardingtheflowofrefugees.Foodproductionisalso
beingrevolutionisedbyBigData,helpingproducersmaximise
yieldsandoptimisetheuseofagriculturalmachinery.
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Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Theamountofdataavailabletousisonlygoingtoincrease.If
BigDataiscapableofallthistoday,justimaginewhat’sin
storeforustomorrow.
Youmightbethinkingthatonlylargecorporationshavethe
budgetsandinfrastructuretobenefitfromallthisever-
increasingdata.Well,actually,no.OnesignificantBigData
trendhasbeenthemovetowardsthedeliveryoftoolsand
technologythrough‘software-as-a-service’platforms.This
meansbusinessesrentserverspace,softwaresystemsand
processingpowerfromthird-partyproviders–eliminatingthe
needforheavyinfrastructureinvestments.Andthisismaking
BigDataaccessibletobusinessesofanysize.
Butwhataboutthedataitself?Whatifyou,liketheaverage
business,aren’tsittingonamountainofdatalikeGoogleand
the3.5millionInternetsearchesitreceiveseveryminute?The
truthisit’ssurprisinglyeasytostarttakingadvantageofthe
explosionindata,withoutgatheringityourself.Herearejusta
fewideas:
• Google:TheInternetgianthasamountainofdataand
ausefulsetoftoolsforinterrogatingthatdata–
Adwordsbeingawell-knownexample.Thecompany
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effectivelyfunctionsasacentralhubforreal-timedata
feedsonjustaboutanythingthatcanbemeasured,
fromweatherinformationtostocksandshareprices.
• Facebook:Theubiquitoussocialnetworkhasalotof
dataonitsusers,andthecompany’sdetailed
understandingofpeopleandtheirinterestsallowsitto
sellextremelytargetedadvertisingservicestoany
business.Thatmightmeantargetingaspecific
demographic,orpeoplewithaninterestinstamp
collecting,oryoucansimplyletFacebookworkits
magicandfindcustomersthataresimilartoonesyou
alreadyhave.
• LinkedIn:Ifyouemploypeople,LinkedIngivesyou
accesstovaluableBigDatathatcanhelpyoufindthe
rightpeopleforyourbusiness,forexample,byfinding
talentthatmatchesaparticularprofile.
Bytappingintodatafromthesebigplayers,andpartnering
withasmallersoftware-as-a-serviceprovider,anyorganisation
canleveragetheexplosionindatatobuildasmarter,more
successfulbusiness.
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TREND2:THEINTERNETOFTHINGS(IoT)MEANSEVERYDAY
DEVICESAREBECOMINGSMARTER
It’snotjustariseintextmessagesandmorepeoplewatching
catvideosonYouTubethatareresponsiblefortheexponential
growthindata.TheIoTisanothermajorcontributingfactor.
TheIoTreferstotheincreasingnumberofdevicesandobjects
thathavebecomesmartandconnected,likephones,watches
andTVs.Thesedays,almostanythingcaneffectivelyfunction
asacomputer,gatheringandtransmittingdata.
IntheIoT,dataiscreatedbythings,nothumans,resultingin
thename‘machine-generateddata’.Suchdataisgenerated
when‘smart’devicesormachinescommunicatewitheach
otherorwiththeirhomeservices.Thinkofyoursmarthome
thermostatsendinginfotoyouriPhone,orindustrial
machineryinplantsgatheringperformancedataviasensors
andtransmittingitforanalysis.
Inthischapter,weexploretheincrediblescaleoftheIoT,look
attheIoTdevicesthataretransformingourworld,and
discovertheinnovativewaystheIoTisdrivingbusiness
success.
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TheunstoppableIoT
Almostanythingcanbemade‘smart’thesedays.Andthese
smartdevices,fromyourphonetoyourTVtoyourFitbit,can
connecttoandshareinformationwitheachother.Thisisa
crucialpartoftheIoT–machine-to-machineconnections
meanthatdevicescantalktoeachotheranddecideona
courseofactionwithoutanyhumanintervention.(For
example,yoursmartthermostatautomaticallyadjustingthe
temperaturewhenaroomgetstoocold,basedonwhatit
knowsaboutyourpreferences.)
TheIoThasseenenormousgrowthinrecentyears,andthat
growthisverylikelytocontinue.IHShaspredictedtherewill
be75billiondevicesconnectedtotheInternetby2020.3Intel
disagrees,predictingthatnumberwillbeawhopping200
billiondevices(that’s26smartobjectsforeveryhumanbeing
onEarth).4Whetherwehit200billionconnecteddevicesora
moremodest(modest!)numberlike75billion,it’sstillahuge
increaseonthe15billionconnecteddevicesthatwerearound
in2015.
3https://cdn.ihs.com/www/pdf/enabling-IOT.pdf4https://www.intel.com/content/dam/www/public/us/en/images/iot/guide-to-iot-infographic.png
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Whatarealltheseconnecteddevicesandmachines?
Iknowwhatyou’rethinking:200billiondevices,that’salotof
smartphones.ButtheIoTisnotallaboutthephoneyoucarry
aroundinyourpocket.IoT-enableddevicesarebeingwidely
usedinbusinesses,inmanufacturing,inhealthcare,andmany
otherindustries–moreonthebusinessapplicationsoftheIoT
comingup.
Outontheroads,ourcarsareofferingever-increasinglevels
ofconnectivity,and,by2020,it’sestimatedthataquarterofa
billioncarswillbeconnectedtotheInternet.5Appintegration,
navigationanddiagnostictools,andevenfullyautomated,
driverlesscarsarejustafewofthewaystheIoTispositively
disruptingtheautomobileindustry.
Inourhomes,therearetheobvioussmartproductslikesmart
TVsandsmartthermostats.Butthereareevensmartversions
ofproductsthatyoureallywouldn’texpect,likeyogamats
thatgiveyoufeedbackonyourDownwardDog,andfrying
pansthattellyouwhentoflipyoursteak.TheAmazonEcho,
withitsvoice-enabledassistantAlexa,isanother,farmore
5https://www.gartner.com/newsroom/id/2970017
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prominent,exampleofanIoTdevice.Infact,we’vewelcomed
Alexaintoourhomestosuchanextentthatexpertsestimate
shipmentsofEchoswillsurpass10millionunitsin2017.6
OtherinnovativeusesoftheIoTinthehomeincludeBelkin’s
Switchsmartplug,whichletsyouswitchelectricalitemsonor
offfromyoursmartphone,ortheAugustsmartlock,which
automaticallyunlocksyourfrontdoorwhenyougethomeand
locksitbehindyouwhenyouleave–itevenletsyougrant
peopleaccesstoyourhomeremotelyusingyoursmartphone.
Itlookslikeourloveofsmarttechnologyinthehomeisonly
goingtoincrease.Onesurveyfoundthat70percentofpeople
whopurchasedtheirfirstsmarthomedevicebelievetheyare
likelytopurchasemore.7
Inaddition,wearabletechnologies,liketheAppleWatch,Fitbit
bands,VRheadsetsandsoon,areanothersignificantportion
ofIoTdevices.AccordingtoIDC,retailersshippedaround104
millionconnectedwearabledevicesin2016,andthat’s
expectedtorisetonearly240millionunitsby2021.8These
devicesgenerateatonofhighlypersonal,extremelyvaluable
dataonthewearer’sactivitiesandwe’reonlyjustbeginningto
6http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20170601PD218.html7https://www.coldwellbanker.com/press-release/2016-is-the-year-smart-home-technology-will-be-mainstream8https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS42818517
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understandthepossibilitiesandpotentialapplicationsforthis
data.
HealthdataisoneparticularlyvaluableaspectoftheIoT,anda
numberofdeviceshavebeendevelopedthatcapturehealth
dataandtransmitthatdatatohealthprofessionals.The
Healthpatchhealthmonitor,forinstance,canbegiventoout-
patientsbytheirhealthcareproviders,andtransmitinfoon
theindividual’sheartrate,skintemperature,respiratoryrate
backtomedicalteams.Notonlycanthishelpalertdoctorsto
potentialhealthproblemsintheindividual,collectivelythis
datahasthepotentialtoprovidewiderinsightsthatmay
informfuturetreatments.
HowtheIoTistransformingthewaywedobusiness
I’vebarelyscratchedthesurfaceonwaystheIoThasledto
excitingnewproductsandpossibilitiesforconsumers.Butit’s
alsoimpactingthewaywedobusinessinabigway.Thedata
producedbythesesmartdevicesandmachines(evenlegacy
machinescanbemade‘smart’byinstallingsensors),gives
companiesawealthofinsightsintoconsumerbehaviour,
machineperformance,andmore.
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Herearethefivemainwaysbusinessesarebenefittingfrom
theIoT:
1. Developingadeeperunderstandingofcustomers:The
smartproductsI’vedescribedinthischaptergive
companiesadirectlinetotheircustomers’behaviours
andpreferences.Fitbit,forexample,knowshowmuch
itsusersexerciseandevenwhattheirnormalsleep
patternsare.AndRollsRoyceinstallssensorsinthejet
enginesitmanufactures,soitcanbetterunderstand
howairlinesusethoseengines.Companiescan
leveragetheinsightsderivedfromthisdatatomake
quickerandsmarterdecisionsthatwillbenefit
customers,oridentifytrendsthatmayleadtonew
businessopportunities.
2. Deliveringnewcustomervaluepropositions:Once
youbetterunderstandyourcustomers,thenextlogical
stepistousethoseinsightstodevelopnewproducts
andserviceofferings.Tractorandfarmequipment
manufacturerJohnDeere,forexample,hasdeveloped
intelligentfarmingsolutionswheresensors
continuouslymonitorsoilhealthandotherfactors,and
givefarmersadviceonwhatcropstoplantwhere,and
soon.
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3. Makingbetterinternaldecisions:Themassesofdata
fromIoTsensorsanddevicesgivescompaniesuseful
informationthatcaninformstrategicdecisionmaking,
wherebythedataisusedtoanswercriticalstrategic
questions,andoperationaldecisionmaking,whereby
thedataandanalyticsismadeavailabletoeveryonein
theorganisation(perhapsviaaself-servicetool)to
informdata-drivendecisionsrightacrossthecompany.
4. Optimisingoperations:Machine-generateddatacan
alsoimprovethewayacompanyisrun,forexample,
byhelpingtoautomatefactoriesorimprovethe
efficiencyofinternalprocesses.Thisdoesn’tjustapply
toindustrialcompanies.Uberusesdatafromsensors
andsmartphonestomonitortrafficconditionsinreal
time,andthisdataisusedtomanagethesupplyof
driversandadjustpricesaccordingtodemand.
5. Creatinganewincomestreamoraddingvaluetothe
business:Asyoucanimagine,thedatafromIoT
devicesisvaluablestuff.Somecompaniescapitaliseon
thisbysellingthedata,orinsightsfromthedata,to
otherparties.(GoogleisabletoselldatafromitsNest
smartthermostatstoutilitycompanies,forinstance.)
Thedataisalsoavaluablebusinessassetinitsown
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right,andcansimplybolsterthebottom-linevalueof
anorganisation.
ConsideringthemanyusesofIoTdata,it’snosurprisethatthe
IoTisdeliveringrealvaluetoorganisations.Thatmaycomein
theformofcostsavings,likethe$37milliontheCityof
BarcelonaissavingeachyearthankstoitsIoT-drivensmart
lightingsystem.9Oritmaycomeintheformofnewrevenue
streams.Eitherway,oftheorganisationsthathave
incorporatedsomesortofIoTinitiativeintotheirbusiness,94
percenthaveseenareturnontheirinvestment.10
Real-worldexample:HowHirotecisharnessingtheIoT
ManufacturersareamongthelargestadoptersofIoT
technology,incorporatingdevelopmentslikeindustrialsensors
andnetworkedassemblylinesintotheiroperations.Let’slook
athowthishasworkedinpracticeforleadingautomobile
partsmanufacturer,Hirotec.
9http://datasmart.ash.harvard.edu/news/article/how-smart-city-barcelona-brought-the-internet-of-things-to-life-78910http://www.csgi.com/resources/profiting-from-the-internet-of-things-above-and-beyond-connectivity-iot/success
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Hirotec’scleverapproachwastoinvest,atleastatfirst,in
small-scale,short-termstrategieswherevaluecouldbe
realisedquickly–theideabeingthatthesesmallerinitiatives
wouldlaythegroundworkandhelpgainbuy-informore
challenging,largerscaleprojects.
Oneofthecompany’sfirstIoT-driveninitiativesinvolved
connectingcuttingmachineryatoneofitstool-building
operations,inordertomonitorandmeasurethereliabilityand
performanceofthosemachines.Thisdeliveredvaluable
insightsonthehealthofHirotec’smanufacturingequipment,
showingthecurrentstatusandhistoricalperformanceofeach
cuttingdevice.Thisdatawasusedtomakethemachinesmore
productive.
Next,uppingthescaleslightly,IoTtechnologywasusedatthe
company’sheadquartersinJapantohelpmanufacturing
teamsmakesmarterdecisionsandactonmachinedataina
moreefficientway.Theydevelopedareportingtooldesigned
todeliverinsightsfrommachinedatatothepeoplewho
neededthemmost(i.e.plantmanagerswhocouldtake
appropriateactionwhenamachinewasn’tperformingatits
best).
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Now,HirotecisinthethirdphaseofitsIoTimplementation,
expandingitfurtheracrossthecompany.Thecurrentfocusis
onconnectingawholeproductionlineatoneofthe
company’sJapanmanufacturingplants.Thismeansthe
productionofacompleteautocomponent–inthiscase,acar
door–willallhappeninasmart,connectedway.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
It’sclearthattheIoTgivescompaniesincredibleopportunities
fornewproductsandservices,orwaystooptimisedecisions
andoperations.Thepossibilitiesforusingthesedevicesand
thedatatheygenerateareendless.Theflipsideofthat,of
course,isthatcompaniescanendupbamboozledbythe
endlesspossibilities.Thismeanstheymayendupspending
moneyonexpensiveIoTinitiativesthat,ultimately,don’thelp
thecompanyachieveitsgoals,ortheymaydonothing,and
getleftbehindastheircompetitorsembracetheIoT
revolution.
SowheredoyoustartwiththeIoT?Howcanyoubestuseitin
yourorganisation?Themostimportantthingistoconsider
howtheIoTcanbelinkedtoyourbusinessstrategy,andhow
itmightdeliverthebiggestbusinessvalue.Therefore,lookat
27
thefiveusesoftheIoTIsetoutearlierinthischapter,anduse
theseasabasisfordetermininghowtheIoT(andIoTdata)can
beleveragedinastrategicwaythatpropelsyourbusiness
towardsachievingitsgoals.
There’snodoubtinmymindthattheIoTisjustgetting
started,andbusinesseswhobegindevelopingorexpanding
theirIoTeffortsnowwillbetheoneswhorealisea
competitiveadvantageinthelongterm.
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TREND3:THEEXPONENTIALGROWTHINCOMPUTING
POWERISFUELLINGINCREDIBLETECHNOLOGICALADVANCES
Noneofthisenormousgrowthintheamountofdatawe’re
producing,northebillionsofconnecteddeviceswealready
own,wouldbepossibleifitweren’tforthehugeleapswe’ve
madeincomputingpower.
Ofcourse,datainitselfisn’tanewthing.Goingbackeven
beforecomputers,westillusedtogatherdatainorderto
measure,monitor,oraccessinsights(justthinkofpaper
archivefilesormicrofiches).What’schangedisourabilityto
store,organiseandinterrogatethatdata–thanksto
computers.Earlycomputertechnology,particularlyearly
spreadsheetsanddatabases,gaveustheopportunitytostart
storingmoredata,andanalysingthatdatainnew,exciting,
andfastways.Sincethen,computershavegotevenfaster,
betterand,ofcourse,much,muchsmaller.
Today,we’vemovedwaybeyondspreadsheetanddatabase
technologyandcannowcapture,storeandinterrogatemany
differenttypesofdata,includingallkindsofunstructured
data.Infact,it’stheseadvancesincomputingpowerand
analyticsthatallowsacompanylikeNetflixtomonitoryour
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viewingbehaviourandofferupotherfilmsandTVseriesthat
itthinksyou’llenjoy.
Inthischapter,we’lllookattheexponentialgrowthin
computingpower,andhowcutting-edgedevelopmentslike
quantumcomputinghavethepotentialtotransformour
world.
Moore’sLawandhowcomputingpowerhasdoubledevery
twoyears
Exponentialgrowthappearstobeathemeofthisbooksofar,
andcomputingpowerisnodifferent.Waybackin1965,
GordonMoore,co-founderofIntel,predictedthatcomputing
powerwoulddoubleeveryyear,anddecreaseincostata
relativerate.In1975,herevisedthatpredictiontoeverytwo
years.
Thisinsight,whichbecameknownasMoore’sLaw,setthe
paceforadigitalrevolutionthatwe’restillfeelingtheimpact
ofmorethan50yearslater.Themoderncomputing
technologyweuseandenjoytoday–fromlaptops,smart
phonesandevensmartyogamats,tosocialmediaplatforms–
stemsfromthefoundationMoorelaid.Astransistorsgot
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smaller(meaningcomputermanufacturerscouldfitmoreof
theminasmallerspace,thusincreasingmemoryspace),
processingpowerincreased,computersgotsmaller,andthey
becamemoreeconomicallyviableforeverydayusers–tothe
pointwherecomputingtechnologyisnowubiquitousin
everydaylife.Thinkaboutit:thatsmartphonesittingprobably
justafewinchesawayfromyouhasthecomputingpowerofa
militarycomputerfrom50yearsagothatwasthesizeofan
entireroom.Thisdramatic,exponentialboosttocomputing
powerhaschangedthewayweworkandliveforever.
Moore’spredictionendedupprovingaccuratefordecades.
Onlyin2015didIntelannouncethatthepaceofacceleration
hadslowedtoapointwhereitwasdoublingapproximately
everytwoandahalfyears.11
Totheskyandback:Cloudcomputinganddistributed
computing
Twoparticularcomputingdevelopmentshavetransformedthe
waywestoredata,bringingustothepointwherewecannow
gather,storeandworkwithunprecedentedvolumesofdata.
11https://www.ft.com/content/36b722bc-2b49-11e5-8613-e7aedbb7bdb7
32
Andthosedevelopmentsarecloudcomputinganddistributed
computing.
Thecloudreferstotheabilitytostoredataoutsideofyour
computer(inasystemlikeDropbox,forinstance),andthe
abilitytoperformcomputingtasksusingsoftwareor
applicationsthataren’tinstalledonyourcomputerordevice
(usingsoftware-as-a-servicetoolslikeXero,forexample).Ina
nutshell,cloudcomputingmeanssoftwareordatarunningon
remoteservices,whereitcanbeaccessedviatheInternet.
Gmailoperatesinthecloud,asdoesFacebookandTwitter.
Cloudcomputingprovidesthegruntthatmakesyoursmart
phone,well,smart.Yourphonedoesn’thavenearlyenough
built-instoragetorunalltheinfoitneedsforitsmanyapps
andfunctions,soitconstantlysendsdatatoandreceivesdata
fromthecloudinordertoperformallthetasksyouwantitto.
Cruciallyforbusinesses,cloudcomputingmeanscompaniesof
allsizescanharnesslargestoragecapacitiesandcomputing
power,withoutinvestinginlotsofexpensivenewhardwareto
storethatdataorrunanalyticstools.
Thecloudalsoallowscomputerstobelinkedinhuge
networks,meaningthatlargevolumesofdatacanbestored
andanalysedusingmanydifferentcomputers,oftenin
33
completelydifferentlocations,eachtakingonasmallpartof
theoveralltask.Thisiswhat’sknownas‘distributed
computing’or‘distributedstorage’.Distributedcomputing
spreadstheloadofstoringandworkingwithlargevolumesof
data,makingitcheaper,easier,andmuchmoreefficient–
therebyopeningupthepowerofBigDatatothemasses.
Together,cloudcomputinganddistributedstoragehavelaid
thefoundationforBigDataandtheIoT.
Fromcloudytofoggy:Lookingat‘fog’or‘edge’computing
Thecloudisgreat.Thecloudhasrevolutionisedourabilityto
workwithdata.Butthecloudisnolongerthecuttingedge.
Becausecomputershavegotsmallerandmoreprevalentin
everydaylife–tothepointwherewecaneffectivelyhavea
computerinafryingpanhandle–wecannowleveragethese
devicestoperformsomeanalytictasksoutsideofthecloud.
BecausethecloudreliesonInternetbandwidth,the
exponentialgrowthindataposessomethingofaproblemfor
ourfluffyfriend.Especiallywhenyoutakeintoaccountthe
anticipatedgrowthinIoTdevices,allofwhichwillbe
transmittingdatatothecloud.
34
Thisiswherefogcomputing(sometimesknownas‘edge
computing’)comesin.Fogcomputingsolvestheproblemby
allowingdatatobekeptclosertotheground,ifyoulike,in
localdevices,ratherthanhavingtogotothecloud.Imagine,
forexample,yourlaptopdownloadingasoftwareupdateand
thensharingthatupdatewithyourphoneandtablet,sothat
youdidn’thavetogoontoeachdeviceanddownloadthe
sameupdatefromthecloud.That’sfogcomputing.
BothCisco(whichcoinedtheterm‘fogcomputing’)andIBM
(whichpreferstheterm‘edgecomputing’)aredeveloping
initiativestopushcomputingprocessesbackouttotheedge
ofnetworks–tothedevices,routersandsensorsthatareall
aroundus,allowingthemtohandlemuchofthedataand
processingrequiredofthem,withoutmakinguseofthecloud.
AfterMoore’slawcomesquantumcomputing
Withthefogclearing,wecanseewhat’scomingoverthehill
intermsofcomputingpowertrends.Byfarthemost
significantdevelopmentisquantumcomputing,whichwillsee
computersbecomemillionsoftimesfasterthantheyareright
now.
35
WeknowthatMoore’sLawnolongerholdstrue.Thenumber
oftransistorswecanfitoncomputercircuitsisnolonger
doublingeverytwoyears.Thetransistorsareaboutassmallas
existingtechnologycanmanage,andwe’rereachingthelimits
ofwhattraditionalcomputerscandointermsofdata
processingpower.
That’swhytheleadingcomputingfirmsareinaracetolaunch
thefirstcommerciallyviablequantumcomputer:acomputer
thatwouldbeexponentiallymorepowerfulthantoday’s
computersandcapableofsolvingproblemsthattoday’s
computerscan’tsolve.Capableofsolvingproblemsthatwe
can’tevenimagineyet.Iemphasisedthewords‘commercially
viable’therebecausewealreadyhavequantumcomputers.
Google,forexample,hasaquantumcomputerthatitsaysis
100milliontimesfasterthananyclassicalcomputerinits
lab.12Fortherecord,Googleannouncedin2017thatitintends
toproducethefirstcommerciallyviablequantumcomputer
withinfiveyears.13
12https://research.googleblog.com/2015/12/when-can-quantum-annealing-win.html13https://www.wired.com/2017/03/race-sell-true-quantum-computers-begins-really-exist/
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Gettingunderthehoodofaquantumcomputer
Ifyouthinkaboutit,eventhemostimpressivecomputers
todayarereallyjustcalculatorsunderthehood.Theyuse0s
and1stomakedecisionsaboutthedataweinput,followinga
predefinedsetofinstructions.Forthemostpart,computers
todayareusedtodoingonethingatatime,sothemore
complextheproblemit’sworkingon,thelongerittakes.
Quantumcomputersareawholedifferentbeast.
Thenamestemsfromquantumphysics,theworldofatomic
andsubatomicparticles,andthefactthattheseparticlescan
existinmorethanonestateatatime.Quantumcomputing
takesadvantageofthis.Insteadofbits,quantumcomputing
usesquantumbits,or‘qubits’.What’sthedifference?Picture
asphere.Whileabitcanexistateitherofthetwopolesofthe
sphere,aqubitcanexistanywhereonthesphere.
PerhapsEricLadizinsky,co-founderofquantumcomputing
companyD-Wave,explainedthedifferencesbetweena
regularcomputerandaquantumcomputerbestwhenhe
spokeattheWIRED2014conference.Hesaidtoimaginethat
youonlyhavefiveminutestofindanXwrittenonapageofa
bookamongthe50millionbooksintheLibraryofCongress.In
thisscenario,youwouldbearegularcomputerandyouwould
37
neverfindtheX.But,ifyouhad50millionparallelrealitiesand
youcouldlookatadifferentbookineachofthoserealities
(justlikeaquantumcomputer),youwouldfindtheXno
problem.Aquantumcomputersplitsyouinto50million
versionsofyourselftomaketheworkquickandeasy.
Ishouldpointoutthatquantumcomputerswon’treplace
traditionalcomputers.Ourregularcomputerswillstillbe
betterfortaskslikeemail,wordprocessing,workingon
spreadsheetsandsoon.Infiveyears’time,Iwon’tbewriting
mynextbookonaquantumcomputer.Thatwouldbeinsane!
Theintentionforquantumcomputersistobeacompletely
differenttool,capableofsolvingentirelydifferentproblems.
Howwillweusequantumcomputing?
Wedon’tactuallyknowallthepossibilitiesofquantum
computingyet,andit’sfairtosaytherewillbesolutionsand
useswehaven’teventhoughtofyet,butwhatwedoknowis
thatitwillbeagame-changerforeveryindustry.
Whenyouconsiderhowmuchclassicalcomputers
revolutionisedourworldwiththerelativelysimpleuseof0s
and1s,youcanimaginetheextraordinarypossibilitieswhen
38
youhavetheprocessingpowerofqubitsthatcanperform
millionsofcalculationsatthesamemoment.
Oneareathatwillbegreatlyimpactedbyquantumcomputing
isAI.Theinformationprocessingthat’scriticaltoimproving
machinelearning(moreonthisinthenextchapter)isideally
suitedtoquantumcomputing.Quantumcomputerscan
analyselargequantitiesofdatatoprovideAImachinesthe
feedbacktheyneedtoimproveperformance.Quantum
computersareabletoanalysethedatatoprovidefeedback
muchmoreefficientlythantraditionalcomputers,and
thereforethelearningcurveforAImachinesisshortened.Just
likehumans,AImachinespoweredbytheinsightsfrom
quantumcomputerscanlearnfromtheirexperiencesandself-
correct.Inthisway,quantumcomputerswillhelpAIbecome
muchmoreintuitiveveryquickly,and,inturn,expandtomore
andmoreindustries.
Therearemanyotheranticipatedusesforquantum
computing,fromimprovingonlinesecurity(hack-proof
encryptionsanyone?)tomakingbetterweatherandclimate
changepredictions.But,forme,what’smostexcitingabout
quantumcomputingis,insteadoftroubleshootingissuesbitby
bitaswedonowwithclassicalcomputers,quantum
computerswilltackletheentireproblematonce.Thisopens
39
thedoorforamazingdevelopmentsineveryfieldfrom
financialservicestoournationalsecurity.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Chancesareyourbusinessisalreadyusingthepowerofthe
cloud,butisittimeyoustartthinkingaboutthepowerofthe
fog?Ifyourbusinessreliesonstoringitsdatainsomeone
else’scloud-baseddatacentre,itwouldcertainlybewiseto
keepinmindthelimitstoInternetbandwidth,theexponential
growthindata,andhowthismightaffectyourabilityto
uploaddatatoandreceivedatafromthecloudinfuture.It
makessense,then,tothinkabouthowyoumightbringat
leastsomeofyourdatabackdowntoearthandutilise
developmentsinfogcomputing.
It’searlydaysforquantumcomputing,andwedon’tyetknow
howthingswillshakeoutforregular,non-Google-size
businesses.Butit’scertainlyatrendworthkeepinganeyeon,
particularlyifyou’remakinguseofAI-enabledanalyticsto
solvecomplexproblems.
41
TREND4:ARTIFICIALINTELLIGENCE(AI)ANDMACHINE
LEARNINGMEANSCOMPUTERSCANNOWMIMICTHE
HUMANBRAIN
Computersmayhavechangedthewaywework,play,interact
witheachother,gotowar,orprettymuchanyotheraspectof
life,buttraditionalcomputershaven’treallybeenthatsmart.
Forexample,foracomputertocompletethesimpletaskof
findingcatphotosinanimagesearch,youwouldfirsthaveto
teachthecomputerwhatacatis,bygivingitlotsofpictures
withcatsin,sothatitcouldrecognisesimilarpictures.Now,
artificialintelligence(AI)hasadvancedtosuchalevelthat
computersarecapableofteachingthemselveswhatacatis–
andother,slightlymorevaluable,activities.Infact,systems
suchasIBM’scognitivecomputingplatformWatsoncancarry
outanever-growingrangeoftaskswithoutbeingtaughthow
todothem.
Computersnowhavetheabilitytolearn,inmuchthesame
wayasahumanbraindoes,andthishasbeenfuelledbythe
massiveincreaseindataandcomputingpower.Quitesimply,
AIwouldbenothingwithoutdata.EventhoughAI
technologieshaveexistedforseveraldecades,it’sthe
incredibleexplosionindatathathasallowedittoadvanceso
quicklyoverthelastcoupleofyears.Siri,forexample,would
42
haveonlyarudimentaryunderstandingofourrequests
withoutthebillionsofhoursofaudiodatathathelpeditlearn
ourlanguage.Therefore,it’sthemassesofdatathatwehave
availablethatacceleratesanAIsystem’slearningcurve.The
moredataishas,themoreitlearnsand,ultimately,themore
accurateitbecomes.
WhatallthismeansinpracticeisthatAIishelpingcomputers
undertakemoreandmorehumantasks.ThankstoAI,
computerscansee(thinkofFacebook’sfacialrecognition
software),read(forexample,analysingTweetsbothfor
contentandsentiment),listen(‘Alexa,what’sthecapitalof
Mongolia?’),speak(‘ThecapitalofMongoliaisUlaanbaatar’)
andgaugeouremotions(affectivecomputing–moreonthis
later).
InthischapterweexplorehowAIworksandhowthistrend
willbemassivelyinfluentialinourworld.
WhatexactlyisAI?
AIcanbedefinedasusingcomputerstosimulatethecapacity
forabstract,creative,deductivethought–particularlythe
43
abilitytolearn.Therefore,atthecoreofAIliesavisionof
buildingmachinesthatarecapableofthinkinglikeushumans.
AIresearchanddevelopmentworkcanbebrokendowninto
twobranches:
• Applied,specialisedAI:Thisusestheprinciplesof
simulatinghumanthoughttocarryoutspecifictasks,
suchasdiagnosingdiseaseinpatientsorpredicting
faultsinmanufacturingequipmentbeforetheyoccur.
• GeneralisedAI:Thisseekstodevelopintelligent
machinesthatcancompleteanytask,muchlikea
person.ThisareaislessdevelopedthanspecialisedAI,
sinceitrequiresamorecompleteunderstandingofthe
humanbrainthanwecurrentlyhave,andmore
computingpowerthaniscommonlyavailableto
researchers(butquantumcomputingwillchangeall
this).
Introducingmachinelearninganddeeplearning
Theterms‘AI’,‘machinelearning’and‘deeplearning’are
oftenusedinterchangeably,andIusetheminterchangeably
foreaseinthischapter.However,they’renotquitethesame
44
thing.Infact,it’smachinelearninganddeeplearningthat
allowsmachinestolearnforthemselves.
EssentiallymachinelearningisasubsetofAI–orrather,it’s
theverycuttingedgeofAI.IfAIisthebroaderconceptof
machinesbecomingintelligent,machinelearningisaspecific
applicationofthatconcept,wherebymachinessolvespecific
real-worldproblemsbyprocessingdatavianeuralnetworks
thatmimichowahumanbrainfunctions.
Now,we’veprogressedfrommachinelearningintodeep
learning.Deeplearningfocusesevenmorenarrowlyona
subsetofmachinelearningtoolsandtechniques.RememberI
saidmachinelearningisthecuttingedgeofAI?Well,deep
learningisthecuttingedgeofthecuttingedge.
Deeplearningisessentiallymachinelearningthatusesdeep
neuralnetworks,builtbylayeringmanyneuralnetworkson
topofoneanother.Dataispassedalongnetworksofnodes,
throughatangledwebofalgorithms,andthesenetworks
adaptaccordingtowhateverdatatheyareprocessingas
movesfromnodetonode.Thisway,theneuralnetworkscan
moreefficientlyprocessthenextbitofdatathatcomesalong,
basedonthedatathatcamebeforeit–thusenablingamore
complexsimulationofhumanlearning.Thisabilityto‘learn’
45
fromdataandtheabilityofasystemtoeffectivelyteachitself
iswhatmakesdeeplearningsopowerful.
Supervisedandunsupervisedlearning
Iknowwe’vecoveredquiteafewcomplexconceptsinashort
spaceoftime,butallowmetoaddtwomoreontop:
‘supervisedlearning’and‘unsupervisedlearning’.Bearwith
mebecausethesetwoconceptsarevitaltounderstanding
howmachines(or,really,algorithms)arebecoming
increasinglysmarter.Let’slookateachconceptinturn:
• Supervisedlearning:Thisis,fornow,byfarthemore
commonlyusedtechnique,andinvolves‘teaching’an
algorithmorsystemwhatyouwantittolearn,based
onasetoftrainingorreferencedata.Here,theoutput
orendresultyouwanttoachieveisalreadyknown.
Youjustneedtoteachthesystemhowtogetfromthe
input(i.e.inputdata)totheoutput(thedecisionor
action),basedonwhatit’slearnedfromthetraining
data.
• Unsupervisedlearning:Afarmorecomplexprocess,
unsupervisedlearninghasbeenmuchlesswidelyused
sofar,butitrepresentsthefutureofAI.In
46
unsupervisedlearning,thereisnotrainingdatasetand
theoutcomesareunknown.Essentially,theAIgoes
intotheproblemblind,andisletlooseupontheinput
datawithnoreferencedatatolearnfrom.
Inreality,mostproblemsrequireasortofhybridsolution,
particularlywhenthereferencedataisincompleteor
inaccurate.Incaseslikethis,‘semi-supervisedlearning’
techniqueswouldbedeployed,wherebythesystemhas
accesstoreferencedatawhenit’savailable,butisabletouse
unsupervisedlearningtechniquestofillintheblankswherever
required.
HowAIandmachinelearningisbeingusedinpractice
Asmachinesbecomeincreasinglysmarter,they’reableto
performtasksthatwerepreviouslythedomainofushumans.
Thishasledtomanypredictionsofhumanslosingtheirjobsto
robots.We’llgettothatinthenextchapter.Fornow,let’s
lookatsomeoftheamazingthingsAIiscapableof.
47
AIinhealthcare
HealthcarehasbecomeakeyindustryforAIandmachine
learning.NotonlyhavemajorplayerssuchasIBMand
MicrosoftjumpedintotheirownAIhealthcareprojects,but
severalstart-upsandsmallerorganisationshavebeguntheir
owneffortstocreatetoolstoaidhealthcare.
MuchoftheAIworkdonethusfarinhealthcareisfocusedon
diseaseidentificationanddiagnosis.FromSophiaGenetics,
whichisusingAItodiagnoseillnesses,tosmartphoneapps
thatcandetermineaconcussionandmonitorother
concernssuchasjaundiceinnewborns,diseaseandhealth
monitoringisattheforefrontofmachinelearningefforts.And
machinesarenowlearninghowtoreadCTscansandother
imagingdiagnosticteststoidentifyabnormalities.
Allthisispossiblebecausecomputersandthealgorithmsthey
runcanworkthroughcolossalamountsofdata–muchfaster
andmoreaccuratelythanhumanscientistsormedical
professionals–tounearthpatternsandpredictionsto
enhancediseasediagnosis.
48
AI-driveninsurancecompanies
AIistransformingdata-heavyindustrieslikeinsurance.
Becausemachinescanprocesslotsofdataatafastspeed,
theycanuncoverinsightsandpatternsmuchmorequicklyand
accuratelythanhumans.Forexample,chatbots,whichare
drivenbyAItechnology,arebeingusedinmessagingappsto
helpresolveclaimsandanswersimplecustomerservice
queries.
AIisalsobeingusedtoidentifypossiblefraudulentclaims,
basedonpatternsfromotherfraudulentclaims,andhighlight
fishycasesforfurtherinvestigationbyahuman.
Naturallanguageprocessingandnaturallanguagegeneration
Naturallanguageprocessing(wherecomputersunderstand
humanspeech)andnaturallanguagegeneration(where
computersgeneratespeech)areparticularlyinteresting
subsetsofAI.ThisiswhatenablesAlexatounderstandyour
five-year-oldwhenheorsheaskstoheartheirnewfavourite
songforthe50thtimethatday,andenablesAlexatotalk
back.
49
Naturallanguagegeneration(NLG)iswherethereallyexciting
stuffishappening–suchasnewsstoriesbeingwrittenby
computers.IntheUS,theAssociatedPressisalready
publishingcorporateearningsstoriesthatarewrittenbyNLG
engines.TheWashingtonPosthasHeliograf,ajournalisticbot
thatgeneratesautomatedcontentwithanimpressivelystrong
editorialvoice.AndintheUK,newsagencyPressAssociationis
usinganautomatedchatbot-drivenplatformtowriteasmany
as30,000localnewsstorieseachmonth.
Empatheticmachines
‘Affectivecomputing’isanotherexcitingareaofAI,which
involvesmachinesbeingabletoreadouremotionsandadjust
theirbehaviouraccordingly–effectivelymakingthem
emotionallyintelligent.Programsarebeingdevelopedthat
cananalysefacialexpressions,posture,gestures,toneof
voice,speech,andotherfactorstoregisterchangesinauser’s
emotionalstate.AIdeveloperAffectiva’sEmotionAI
technology,forinstance,isalreadybeingusedby1,400brands
tojudgetheemotionaleffectofadvertsonviewers.
50
Workingoutyoursexualorientation
Computerscanevendeterminewhetherapersonisgayor
straightjustfromanalysingtheirface.Onerecentstudytook
morethan35,000facialimagesthatwerepubliclyavailableon
adatingwebsiteandfoundthatacomputeralgorithmcould
correctlydistinguishbetweenstraightandgaymen81percent
ofthetime.14Forwoman,theaccuracyratewas74percent.
And,demonstratingjusthowimportantdatavolumeistoAI
capabilities,thesystem’saccuracyimprovedto91percent
whenthecomputerwasgivenfiveimagesperperson.
Real-worldexample:HowAIisdrivingsuccessatSpotify
Withtensofmillionsofuserslisteningtomusiceveryminute
ofeveryday,musicstreamingserviceSpotifyhasaccessto
hugeamountsofdata,includingwhatsongsgetplayedthe
most,users’geographicallocation,andwhatdevicethey’re
listeningon.
14https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/09/28/the-ai-that-predicts-your-sexual-orientation-simply-by-looking-at-your-face/#6142d9c43456
51
Astheplatformcontinuestoacquiredata,it’susingthatintel
totrainitsalgorithmsandmachinestolistentomusicand
extrapolateinsightsthatwillimproveuserexperience.
OneexampleofthisistheDiscoverWeeklyfeaturethatgives
youapersonalisedplaylisteveryweek.Theseplaylistsare
madeupofmusicyouhaven’tlistenedtobeforeonthesite,
butthatthealgorithmshavedeterminedyou’llprobably
enjoy.BasedonallthelovelydataSpotifyhasonyourmusic
preferences,thealgorithmscanextrapolatewhatothermusic
you’lllike.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
AItechnologymayseembeyondthereachoftheaverage
business,butplatformslikeIBM’sWatsonareopeningupAI
andmachinelearningtoamuchwideraudience.Infact,there
aremanystart-upswhoareapplyingthistechnologytoawide
rangeofindustriesandapplications.RememberthePress
Association,whoisproducingthousandsoflocalnewsarticles
withAI?Theyhaven’tdevelopedthisalone.Theypartnered
withnewsautomationspecialistsUrbsMedia.
52
Whateverindustryyou’rein,it’slikelythatAIwillhavesome
impactinthecomingyears.Whiletherearegenuineconcerns
aroundwhatthismaymeanforpeople’sjobs(moreonthatin
thenextchapter),it’simportanttokeepanopenmindabout
theincredibleopportunitiesAIbrings.
54
TREND5:AUTOMATIONISANUNSTOPPABLEFRIEGHT
TRAIN,ANDWESHOULDBEJUMPINGABOARD
Therehasclearlybeenahugeleapinmachineintelligence
overthelastcoupleofyears.Andthemoreintelligent
machinesbecome,themoretheycandoforus.That,inturn,
meansevenmoreprocesses,systems,functionsanddecisions
canbeautomatedandcarriedoutbyrobotsoralgorithms.
Inthischapter,we’lllookathowawiderangeofindustriesare
becomingmoreautomated,aswellashowthiswillimpact
humanworkers.
Thefourthindustrialrevolution
Thefirstindustrialrevolutionwassteamandwaterpower.The
second,electricityandassemblylines.Thethird,computers.
Andnow,thefourthindustrialrevolution,alsoknownas
industry4.0,ishere.
Thefourthindustrialrevolutionisessentiallytheideaofsmart,
connectedfactories(poweredbyIoTtechnology),where
machinesareconnectedtoasystemthatcanmonitorand
visualisetheentireproductionchain,andmakedecisionsfor
itselftokeepeverythingrunningsmoothly.Buttheconcept
55
isn’tnecessarilylimitedtofactoriesandindustrialprocesses.
Thisideaofprocessesbeingconnectedandautomatedis
spreadingtoavastspectrumofindustries,ascomputers,
machinesandalgorithmsreplaceoraugmenthumanworkers.
ThefourDsofrobotisationandautomation
Althoughawiderangeofindustriesandjobswillbeimpacted
byincreasingautomation,expertsagreethatmostofthefirst
waveofjobsthatmachinesaretakingcanbecategorisedby
fourDs:
• Dull:Robotsandmachinesareuniquelyqualifiedfor
repetitiveandtedioustasks.Theydon’tgettired,they
don’tgetbored,andtheydon’thavelapsesin
concentration.Withrobotstakingonthedullerjobs,
thehumanworkforceisfreetofocusonmorecreative
andinterestingtasks.
• Dirty:There’sawholeworldofdirtyornot-so-pleasant
jobsthattheaveragehumandoesn’tthinkabout,but
areessentialforkeepingourworldfunctioning.Robots
canbetheperfectsubstituteforhumanswhenit
comestotaskslikesewerreconnaissance.
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• Dangerous:We’realreadyusingrobotsfordangerous
worklikeinvestigatinganddetonatingsuspected
bombs,andcompaniesarestartedtodeveloprobots
forotherdangerousjobs,likepolicing.Infact,areal-
liferobo-copisalreadyonthebeatinDubai.
• Dear:Whendeployingrobotssavesmoneyorreduces
delays,it’sjustonemorewayrobotscanearntheir
keepandmakeapositivecontributiontoourworld.
Onethingisprettycertain,inthefuture,humanswillno
longerbeneededtodothejobsthatrobotsormachinescan
dosafer,faster,moreaccuratelyandcheaper.
Automationinaction
Let’slookatjustafewoftheplaceswhereautomationis
makingadifference.
Ontheroads
Waymo,Google’sself-drivingcardivision,confirmedatthe
endof2017thatitsautonomousvehiclesarenowdriving
aroundwithoutahumandriver–untilnow,ahumanhas
57
alwaysbeenonboardreadytotakethewheelifsomething
wentwrong.15Accordingtosomeestimates,by2020,there
couldbeasmanyas10millionself-drivingcarsontheroad.16
Therearealreadyself-drivingfeaturesonmanymodelsthat
arealreadyavailable,allfuelledbymachinelearning,sensors,
camerasandsoftwarethathelpsvehiclesgatherdatafrom
aroundthemandrespondtowhatthatdataistellingthem.
Trucks,too,arebecomingautomated.DaimlerTruckshas
alreadylaunchedan18-wheel,fullyautonomoustruck.For
now,thesetrucksaren’tdriverless,butthetruckitselfcan
takeoverfromthedriverinanumberofcircumstances,such
askeepingasafedistancefromthevehicleinfront,
maintainingaconsistentspeedandsoon.IntheUK,semi-
automatedtruckswillbetakingtotheroadsin2018.17
Outatsea
Rolls-Roycehasrevealedplanstodevelopfullyautonomous
cargoshipsthatcantaketotheseaswithouthumanson
15https://www.wired.com/story/waymo-google-arizona-phoenix-driverless-self-driving-cars/16http://www.businessinsider.com/report-10-million-self-driving-cars-will-be-on-the-road-by-2020-2015-5-617https://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-transport-trucks/semi-automated-trucks-to-hit-uk-roads-by-end-of-2018-idUSKCN1B51BH
58
board,withtheshipsbeingcontrolledfromaland-based
controlhub.Withouttheneedtocarrycrew,theseshipswill
becheapertooperateandhavemoreroomforcargo.The
planisfortheshipstosetsailby2020.18
Inmanufacturing
MercedesparentcompanyDaimlerisonthecuttingedgeof
thefourthindustrialrevolution.Everyaspectofproductionis
impactedbydigitalisation,fromdigitaldesignandprototyping
tonetworkedproductionlines.
Adidasmaynotseemlikeaparticularlyhigh-techcompany,
butthesportswearmanufacturerisinvestingheavilyinsmart
factories.In2016,thecompanyproducedtheirfirstpairof
shoesfromanew,highlyautomatedfactoryinGermany,and
ithasplanstointroduceasimilarautomatedfactoryin
Atlanta.19ForAdidas,automationallowsforincrediblespeed
andgreatercustomisationofproductsforcustomers.
18https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2017/10/23/rolls-royce-and-google-partner-to-create-smarter-autonomous-ships-based-on-ai-and-machine-learning/#56dfd0266dfe19https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2016/09/29/adidas-brings-jobs-back-home-but-not-for-people/#772f6512402b
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Sowhatdoesthismeanforhumanjobs?
AdidasbringingitsmanufacturingbacktotheWestisgreat,
butmoveslikethisareunlikelytocreateawealthof
manufacturingjobsforcommunities.Adidassaidtheirnew
Atlantafactory,forinstance,wouldcreatearound160jobs.
Butwithmachinescarryingoutthebulkofthemanufacturing
processes,thesejobsareunlikelytobelow-skillproduction
linejobs.Morelikely,they’llbejobsinprogramming,quality
controlandmaintenance.
It’snotjust‘blue-collar’jobsthatwillbeaffectedby
automation,however.It’sthoughtthatrobots,machinesand
algorithmswillreplace–or,morelikely,augment–many
humanjobs,includingprofessionaljobsinfieldslike
accountingandlaw.Byoneestimate,47percentofUSjobs
areatriskofautomation.20
Herearejustafewofthejobsthatarelikelytobeaffectedby
automationtosomedegree:
• Truckdrivers:I’vealreadymentionedhowthefirst
automatedtruckshavebeendeveloped.McKinsey
20http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2016/jan/24/4th-industrial-revolution-brings-promise-and-peril-for-humanity-technology-davos
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predictthatinlessthanadecadeone-thirdofalltrucks
ontheroadwilldrivethemselves.21
• Bricklayers:SAM(Semi-AutomatedMason)isupto
threetimesmoreproductivethanhumanbricklayers,
layingmorebricksperhourthanyouraveragehuman
brickie–anddrinkingconsiderablylesstea.22
• Legalsupportstaff:ADeloitteInsightreporthasfound
that39percentoflegaljobsstandtobeautomatedby
2020.23AItechnologywillplayabigrolehere,giving
computerstheabilitytoreviewdocumentsandfind
relevantsupportinginformationforcases.
• Doctors:Inthepreviouschapter,wesawhowAIis
beingheavilyadoptedinthehealthcareindustry.IBM’s
Watson,forinstance,isalreadyteamingupwith
healthcareproviderstohelpdetectandtreatcancer.
• Accountants:Auditingexpenses,categorisingand
clearinginvoices,andbankreconciliationarejustafew
oftheaccountingtasksthatarewellsuitedto
intelligentmachines.Inmostcases,themachinescan
21http://www.newsweek.com/2016/12/09/robot-economy-artificial-intelligence-jobs-happy-ending-526467.html22https://www.technologyreview.com/s/540916/robots-lay-three-times-as-many-bricks-as-construction-workers/23https://www.legaltechnology.com/latest-news/deloitte-insight-100000-legal-roles-to-be-automated/
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completethetaskfarquickerandmoreaccuratelythan
ahumanaccountant.
• Writers:Yourfavouritenovelistswillbesafe,but
journalists,reportwritersandotherwriterswhoassess
informationandthenwriteaboutitwillseemoreand
moreautomatedsystemsencroachingontheir
territory.IftheWashingtonPostisanythingtogoby,
machinesarealreadycreatingveryreadablecontent.
Let’spaintahappierpicture
Ifthatallsoundsabitbleak,especiallyifyou’reatruckdriver
oraccountant,fearnot.Yourexactjobasyouknowitright
nowmaynotexistinthefuture,butitmayhavemorphedinto
moreinterestingtasksorjobsthataren’tsuitedtomachines.
That’sthebeautyofautomation:itfreesuphumanstofocus
onmorestrategic,creativeorcomplextasks.
Andwherearoledisappearsaltogether,newtechnologywill
leadtothecreationofrolesthatdidn’texistbefore.Just
imaginegoingbackintimeandtellingpeoplefromthe1980s
that,whereyoucomefrom,millionsofpeopleworkasapp
designersorsocialmediamanagers.Theywouldn’thaveaclue
whatyouweretalkingabout!
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We’veseenitwitheachoftheindustrialrevolutionsthathave
comebeforeus.Changingworkforcescreatemorejobsin
differentareasandevenjobsthatdon’texisttoday–even
jobsthatwecan’timaginetoday.
Intheend,Ibelievethathumanswillworkalongsidetheir
robotcolleagues,andworkplaceswillbeabletoleveragewhat
eachonedoesbest.Humansarestillmoreflexibleandare
abletocomeupwithuniquewaystosolveproblems,so
robotsandmachineswillfreeusuptodigintoproblemsthat
requiremorecreativityandbrainpower.Inevitably,itwill
requiretrainingandtheacquisitionofnewskills,but,
ultimately,robotswillallowhumanstoenhancetheirroles.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Asanybusinessconsultantwilltellyou,anythingthatcanbe
streamlinedorautomated,shouldbe.Andthatgoesfor
businessesbigandsmall.Ifarobotormachinecandoatask
quicker,cheaper,easierandmoreaccuratelythanahuman,
whyshouldn’tit?It’sanaturalevolution.
Bynowyou’veprobablyreadlotsofarticlesthatpithumans
againstmachines–‘Beafraid:Robotswilltakeallourjobs’and
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thelike.I’veevenwrittensomeofthosearticles!Butthetrue
pictureofthefutureislikelytobelessblackandwhite.
Insteadofconsideringwho’llwinoutbetweenrobotworkers
andhumanworkers,weshouldbethinkingaboutafriendly
mergerbetweenmanandmachine,onethatbringsoutthe
bestinbothsides.
Infact,researchersbelievetheseAI–humanteamsmaybethe
answertosolvingtheworld’smostpressingandcomplex
problems,suchasclimatechange.24Forme,thequestionisn’t
whowillwinbetweenmanandmachine,buthowcanwebest
worktogether?Forbusinesses,thatmeansautomatingthe
processesthatarebestsuitedtomachines,andharnessing
humanbrainpowerforthequirkierproblemsandaspectsof
business.
24http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3380709/Superintellingence-AI-humans-working-solve-climate-change-end-wars-researchers-claim.html
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TREND6:3DPRINTINGISCHANGINGTHEWAYWEPRODUCE
THINGS
Huge,smartfactoriesandintelligentmachinesareonesideof
automation.Theothersideisalotmorehumble.I’mtalking
aboutthe3Dprinter.Thisoneinventionisdisrupting
manufacturing,andotherindustries,inmanypositiveways.In
pharma,forexample,thefirst3Dprinteddrugwasapproved
bytheFDAin2015.25Humantissuehasalsobeensuccessfully
recreatedwith3Dprinting.
As3Dprintingtechnologyimproves,thescopeofapplications
willextendtomanymoreindustries.Forexample,evenifa
traditionalmanufacturingassemblylineisn’treplacedwith3D
printers,thetechnologycouldstillbeusedtoquicklyprintand
replacesparepartsformachinery.Inventorswillbeableto
createmodelsandmockupsoftheirideasquicklyandeasily.
Outsidetheworldofwork,3Dprintingcouldaltermany
aspectsofeverydaylife–fromtheproductswebuy(maybe
evenmakeourselvesathome),tothehouseswelivein,tothe
foodweeat.Evenchocolateisbeingmanufacturedwith3D
printingtechnology.That’sright,printersexistthatcanprint
chocolate.
25http://money.cnn.com/2015/08/04/technology/fda-3d-printed-drug-epilepsy/
66
Beforeyourunofftobuyoneoftheseincrediblechocolate-
printinggadgets,let’stakealookatwhat3Dprintinginvolves,
andexploresomeofthefascinatingways3Dprinting
technologyisbeingapplied.
Whatis3dprintingandhowdoesitwork?
3Dprinting(alsoknownasadditivemanufacturing)isameans
ofcreating3Dobjectsfromadigitalfileusinganadditive
process.It’stheoppositeoftraditional(subtractive)
manufacturing,wherebyanobjectiscutoutorhollowedout
ofitsmaterial,e.g.plasticormetal,usingacuttingtoolor
somethinglikeamillingmachine.In3Dprinting,theobjectis
createdbylayingdown,oradding,layersuponlayersof
material,buildingupuntilyouhavethefinishedobject.Slice
thatobjectopen,andyou’dbeabletoseeeachofthesethin
layers,muchliketheringsofatreetrunk.
Thisinnovativelayeringapproachmeansthatfarmore
complexshapescanbecreatedthanintraditional
manufacturing–andusinglessmaterial,too.Thematerials
usedin3Dprintingcanbeprettymuchanything:plastic,
metal,concrete,liquid,powder,evenchocolateorhuman
tissue.
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Computingiscentralto3Dprinting,sincetheprintercreates
theobjectbasedonthe3Dsketchit’sgiven,producedusing
3DmodellingsoftwarelikeCAD.
Amazingexamplesof3Dprintinginaction
Herearejustafewoftheways3Dprintingisalreadybeing
used.
Printinghumantissue
Theworldofmedicinewasactuallyoneoftheearlyadopters
of3Dprinting.Itmakessensewhenyouthinkaboutit.Eachof
usaredifferent–wehavedifferentlengthlimbs,differentsize
ears,andsoon–and3Dprintingtechnologyallowsforan
extremelyhighlevelofcustomisation.Asaresult,millionsof
individuallysculptedprostheticsarebeing‘printed’,from
dentalimplantstolimbstohearingaidshells.
Researchersarealsousingthetechnologytocreatehuman
tissue,includingcartilageandskin.TheWakeForestInstitute
forRegenerativeMedicine,forexample,hasprintedbones,
musclesandevenears,andimplantedthemsuccessfullyinto
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animals.Importantly,afterbeingimplanted,themanufactured
tissuesurvivedandmaturedintofunctionaltissue.26
Andwe’rewellonourwaytobeingabletoprinthuman
organs.Therearestilllegalandethicalissuestoironout
beforethesestartbeingimplantedintohumans,sothiswork
isstillexperimental.Fornow,livertissuethat’sbeingprinted
isbeingusedlargelyfordrugtesting.Butifthoselegaland
ethicalhurdlescanbeovercome,justimaginehowthis
technologywillchangethelivesofthemillionsofpeople
aroundtheworldwaitingfororgantransplants.
Printingchocolate
It’samazingtothinkthatchocolatiersarenowusing3D
technologytoprintchocolates.Forexample,ChocEdge
creates3Dprintersthatallowchocolatierstodesignand
produceintricateandinventivechocolates,byrendering
prettymuchanyshapeorobjectoutofchocolate.
Howdoesitwork?Well,nottoputyouoffyourKitKat,butit’s
alotlike3Dplasticprinting.A3Dmodelofwhatevershape
youwanttorenderinchocolateisslicedintolayers,and
26https://3dprint.com/119885/wake-forest-3d-printed-tissue/
69
convertedintocodefortheprintertoread.Theobjectisthen
builtup,ultra-thinlayerbyultra-thinlayer,inmelted
chocolate,whichcoolsandsetsasit’sprinted.
IntheUS,Hersheyand3DSystemshavecollaboratedtocreate
achocolateprinteroftheirownthatcanacceptindividual
designsandprintcomplex,customshapesinwhite,milkand
darkchocolate.27Thismeans,ifyouweresoinclined,you
couldhaveyourfacerecreatedinchocolateasaninventive
Valentine’sgiftforyourlovedone.WillyWonkawould
approve,Ithink.
Printinghouses
Architectureandconstructionarealsobeingenhancedby3D
printingtechnology.ApisCor,aSanFrancisco-based3D
printingcompany,canprintalltheconcretewallsforamodest
houseinunder24hours.Usingthismethod,ahousecanbe
createdquicklyandeasilyonsite.ApisCor’smobile3Dprinter,
whichlooksabitlikeasmallcrane,laysdownlayersofa
concretemixturetobuildupthewalls.Then,oncetheprinter
isremoved,insulation,windowsandaroofareadded.The
27http://www.wired.co.uk/article/cocojet-chocolate-3d-printer
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companyclaimsitsprintedwallswilllastforupto175years,
andthatahousemadeinthiswaycostsjustover$10,000to
build.28
Butwhystopatamodest,regularhouse?Whynot3Dprint
yourveryowncastle?That’swhat3Dconcreteprintingexpert
AndreyRudenkodid.29Keentoprovethatinnovativeand
unusualconstructionwaspossiblewith3Dprinting,heset
aboutcreatingtheworld’sfirst3Dprintedconcretecastle.
Admittedly,theresultisstillarelativelymodestcastle.Buta
castleitmostdefinitelyis.
Notonlyisthistechnologyabigstepforwardinmakinghouse
building(andcastlebuilding)moreaffordable,itcouldbeused
tohelpquicklyre-homepeoplewhohavebeendisplacedby
naturaldisasters,suchasfloodingorearthquakes.What’s
more,3Dprintedbuildingsmayhaveloftieraspirations
beyondbuildingshereonEarth.Thetechnologyisbeing
consideredasawayofbuildingfuturemoonbases.30
28http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/03/03/incredibly-cheap-house-3d-printed-just-24-hours/29http://www.totalkustom.com/3d-castle-completed.html30http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2013-02/01/foster-esa-moon-base-3d-printing
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Printingtrainers
RememberthehighlyautomatedAdidasfactoryImentioned
inthepreviouschapter?Thefactoryuses3Dprintingtocreate
lightweight,flexiblesolesthatbettersupportthewearer’s
feet.Thanksinparttothisinnovativetechnology,Adidassays
itcancutthetimeittakestobringanewdesigntomarket
frommonthstoaweekorless.31Italsoallowsformuch
greatercustomisationofproductsforsportswearfans.
How3Dprintingwillchangemanufacturing
3Dprintersdon’tcutout,drillormillaproductfromitssource
material.Instead,theystartfromnothingandbuildupthe
productfromthere.Thismeans3Dprintingusesfarless
materialthantraditionalmanufacturingmethods,andit
meansthatone-offitemscanbemadequicklyandeasily,
withoutneedingtoworryabouteconomiesofscale.Notonly
isthisbetterforourenvironment,itwillalsoleadtosignificant
costsavingsformanufacturers.Andthosecostscanextendto
infrastructurecostsaswellasmaterials.
31https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21724368-recent-advances-make-3d-printing-powerful-competitor-conventional-mass-production-3d
72
AgriculturalmanufacturerJohnDeere,forinstance,isworking
with3DprintercreatorsCarbononaprojectthatwillalterthe
natureoftheirmanufacturingforever.Insteadofhavinghuge
warehousesallovertheworldfilledwithsparepartsforits
tractorsandothermachines,JohnDeerecanhaveallthe
digital,3Ddesignsforitssparepartsinthecloud,wherethey
canbeaccessedfromanyofitsmanufacturingplants
anywhereintheworld.Partscanthenbeprintedtoorder,
wheneverandwhereverthey’reneeded,withouthavingto
manufacturethousandsofpartsandstorethemforyears.32
GEisalsoinvestingbigin3Dprinting:$1.5billiontobe
precise.33Inoneexample,thecompanyisprintingfuelnozzles
forLEAPjetengines,andexpectsproductiontohit35,000
nozzlesayearby2020.3Dprintingisclearlyonthewayto
becomingviableforanykindofmassproduction.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Ifyourbusinessinvolvesmanufacturingproductsor
componentsofanykind,you’ddowelltoconsiderhow3D
32http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21724368-recent-advances-make-3d-printing-powerful-competitor-conventional-mass-production-3d33https://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21724368-recent-advances-make-3d-printing-powerful-competitor-conventional-mass-production-3d
73
printingcouldenhanceyouroperations.Whileit’sfairtosay
that3Dprintingisalongwayfrombeingubiquitous,examples
likeAdidasandGEshowushowthetechnologyisadvancingto
apointwhereitcanchallengetraditionalmethodsofmass
production.
Ofcourse,peoplethoughtthatprint-on-demandwouldput
bookshopsoutofbusiness,andthathadn’tbeenthecase.So
perhaps3Dprintingwillremainaspecialistprocess.Thisisone
trendwheretimewilltell.But,forme,what’sparticularly
excitingabout3Dprintingistheopportunitiesitoffersfor
customisationofproductsanddesignstosuitone-offrequests
andorders.
Inthisageofonlineplatformsanticipatingoureverywish,and
makingpersonalisedrecommendationsonwhatwemightlike
tobuy,read,watchorlistentonext,consumersaregetting
veryusedtohighlypersonalisedservices.Businesseslike
AmazonandNetflixhavedoneextremelywellforthemselves
byfiguringoutexactlywhattheircustomerswant,andthen
givingittothem.3Dprintingprovidesyetmorescopefor
personalisationandcustomisation,andIthinkthatmightbe
thekeytoitssuccess.
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TREND 7: ‘HI SIRI’: INTERFACE INNOVATIONS HAVETRANSFORMEDHOWWEINTERACTWITHTECHNOLOGY
Overthelast10years,butparticularlyinthelastfewyears,
thewayweinteractwithtechnologyhaschangeddramatically
–andcontinuestochange.Mobilephonesandtabletshave
movedusfromtypingonakeyboardandclickingwitha
mousetosimplytouchingascreen.Weincreasinglycarryout
moretasksonthemove,onourmobilesandtablets.Andmost
ofusareentirelycomfortablespeakingtotechnologydirectly,
forinstance,throughvoicesearchesviaSiri,Alexaandthelike.
Inthischapter,we’lllookathowinterfaceinnovationshave
changedthewayweworkandplaywithtechnology,anddelve
intothecuttingedgeofinterfaces:virtualreality(VR)and
augmentedreality(AR).
Fromdesktoptomobile
We’veshiftedremarkablyquicklyfromtraditionaldesktop
computersandlaptopstosmartphonesandtablets.Thoseof
uswhodoofficejobsmightstillcarryoutthebulkofourmore
complexworktasksonalaptopordesktopPC(viewinga
spreadsheetiscumbersomeonasmartphone,forinstance,as
iswritingabook),butwe’reusingourtabletsandlaptops
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moreandmoreforwork-relatedactivities…likeanswering
emailsat9pmatnight.
Outsideofwork,though,thesmartphonereignssupreme.
Improvedsmartphonetechnologyandhigh-speedmobile
Internetnetworkshaveresultedinsmartphonesbecoming
thefirstthingmanypeoplereachforwhentheyneedtocarry
outsomesortofonlineordigitalactivity.Wanttotakea
pictureofyourkid’sfirstdayatschool?Reachforthephone.
NeedtoarrangeMum’s60thbirthdaysurprisewithyour
siblings?HeadtoWhatsApp.Orderingacab?Bookingahotel?
Orderingyourweeklygroceries?Asthesayinggoes,there’san
appforthat.Andlet’snotforgetthat,inmanydeveloping
countries,asmartphonemaybetheonlycomputeraperson
has.
It’snowonderthenthat,in2016,mobilewebusageovertook
webusagethroughtraditionalcomputersforthefirsttime
ever.34Thatmeansmorewebsitesarenowaccessedthrough
smartphonesandtabletsthantheyarethroughcomputers
andlaptops.Thesameresearchalsofoundthat,intheUK,
mobileadvertisingsurpasseddesktopadvertisinginthefirst
34http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2016/11/01/mobile-web-usage-overtakes-desktop-for-first-time/
77
halfof2016.Googlehasalsoconfirmedthatsearcheson
mobiledevicesnowoutstripdesktopsearches.35
We’realittlewayfromPCsandlaptopsendinguponthescrap
heap,butit’sclearthescaleshavecertainlytippedinmobile’s
favour.
Theriseofvideo
Linkedtothismigrationtomobileisthemassivegrowthin
videocontent.Tenyearsago,whenwewantedtofindout
aboutsomething,wemighthavereadawebpage,online
articleorblogpost.(Tenyearsbeforethat,itwouldhavebeen
aphysicalbook,newspaperorotherkindofpublication.)
Now?It’sverylikelywewatchavideo.Ifyouthinkaboutit,
whendidyoulastseesomeonewatchingavideoontheir
phoneortablet?Ibetitwaswithinthelast24hours.
YouTubenowhasoverabillionusers–nearlyathirdofall
peopleontheInternet–andmorevideocontentisuploaded
totheplatforminonemonththanthemajorUSTVnetworks
havecollectivelycreatedoverthelast30years.36Eightytwo
35http://searchengineland.com/its-official-google-says-more-searches-now-on-mobile-than-on-desktop-22036936http://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2017/03/08/video-marketing-statistics
78
percentofTwitteruserswatchvideocontentonthesite.37
Andalmosthalfofpeoplewatchmorethananhourof
FacebookorYouTubevideosaweek.38Byoneestimate,
Internetvideotrafficwillaccountforover80percentofall
consumerInternettrafficwithinthenextfouryears.39
Thishashadamassiveimpactonthewaybrandstryto
interactwithus,andvideoisbecomingacorepartofmany
businesses’marketingefforts.But,notcontentwithjust
watchingvideos,Internetusersarewantingtocreatetheir
ownvideocontent–leadingtoFacebookandInstagram’sLive
features,whichallowuserstosharelivevideocontentfrom
theirday.Now,oneineveryfivevideosviewedonFacebookis
aLivebroadcast.40AndIexpectthatnumberwillrise.
Lookaroundyouthenexttimeyou’reonatrainorbus.How
manypeoplearestreamingnewsvideoratherthanscrolling
throughanarticle?HowmanyarewatchingaYouTubevid?Or
howmanyarewatchingvideostheirfriendshaveposted,
ratherthanreadingtheirstatusupdates?Allthisrepresents
37http://www.insivia.com/27-video-stats-2017/38http://www.wordstream.com/blog/ws/2017/03/08/video-marketing-statistics39https://www.forbes.com/sites/tjmccue/2017/09/22/top-10-video-marketing-trends-and-statistics-roundup-2017/#6cfbba1d710340http://mediakix.com/2017/03/facebook-live-statistics-video-streaming-to-know/#gs.wOYVlrM
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anothersignificantwayinwhichourinteractionswith
technologyhavechanged.
Chattingtoourdevices
Now,we’removingfromtouchingscreenstotalkingtoour
technology.Idon’tmeaninthatabsent-mindedwaywe
sometimeschattoinanimateobjects,butinadeliberate,goal-
orientedway.Insteadoftappingascreenandtypingasearch,
forexample,wecannowsimplyaskourdeviceswhatwewant
toknow–and,thankstoAIcapabilities,theycanunderstand
ourrequestandanswerus.Estimatessuggestthat,by2020,
50percentofallsearcheswillbevoicesearches,andaround
30percentwillinvolvenoscreenwhatsoever.41Forme,(at
leastfornow)thisrepresentsthebiggestchangeinhowwe
interactwithtechnology.
What’sgreataboutinteractionslikethisisthattheybreak
downbarriersbetweengenerations.Youdon’thavetobe
technicallysavvytoaskavirtualassistantlikeAlexawhenthe
clocksgoback,orwhetherit’sgoingtorainwhenyougoout
later.Allyouneedisthepowerofspeech.Irecentlyhosteda
41https://www.branded3.com/blog/google-voice-search-stats-growth-trends/
80
charityteafor15elderlypeople,andtwoofthemweretalking
abouttheirAlexa.Playingafavouritesong,askingAlexatocall
arelativeorfriend,orsimplyjustsaying‘Goodnight,Alexa’
andhaveheranswerbackwerejustsomeofthewaysAlexa
makeseverydaylifebetter.Andattheotherendofthe
spectrum,mysix-year-oldloveschattingtoAlexaandasking
thosemust-knowquestionsthatsix-year-oldsareconstantly
comingupwith,like‘Howmanybonesarethereinthehuman
body?’
Chatbotscandomorethanplayyourfavouritesong
Alexa,Siri,Cortana.They’realljustAI-drivenchatbots.Asare
manyofthecustomerservicerepresentativeswenowinteract
withonline.Chatbotsaren’trobotsatall,ofcourse,but
softwarethatyoucommunicatewithtocompleteataskor
answeraquestion.Andtheimplicationsofthistechnology
extendfarbeyondaskingforaspecificsong.Businessesare
tappingintothepowerofchatbotstodeliverabetter,more
personalisedservicetocustomers,communicatewiththeir
employees,andimproveoperations.Someofthemore
commonusesforchatbotsinclude:
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• Automatingcustomerservice:Promptattentionand
communicationwithcustomersisacriticalcomponent
ofbusinesssuccess.Chatbotsexcelatthisbecause
theycanrespondtomultiplequeriesatthesametime
andeasilyanswertypicalcustomerservicequeries.
• Conversationalcommerce:Theeasieritisfor
customerstopurchaseyourproduct,themoreyou’ll
sell.Conversationalcommerceallowscustomersto
purchaseanitemsimplybyhavingaconversationwith
achatbot.
• Marketingandadvertising:Advertising-focused
chatbotscansharenewsaboutspecialoffersornew
productswithcustomersviadirectmessaging.
Outsideofthebigbrands,it’srelativelyearlydaysintermsof
chatbotadoptioninbusiness,butitwon’tbelongbeforeit
takesoffamongsmallercompanies.Asweallgetmoreused
tointeractingwithtechnologyinmorenatural,intuitiveways,
chatbotsprovideaneasywayforbusinessestokeep
customersengaged.
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Howeverydayobjectsanddevicesarenowintegratingwith
AIassistants
Asbusinessesarecottoningontoourloveofinteractingwith
technologyviaaudiocommands,manufacturersaregradually
integratingtheirproductswiththelikesofSiri,Alexaand
GoogleAssistant.
Forexample,IhaveaSonossmartspeakersystem,andthe
latestSonosspeakersarenotjustintegratedwithAlexa(and
otherAIassistants),they’rebuiltwiththattechnology
specificallyinmind.Thismeansmysmartspeakerscan
respondtoallthevoicecommandsandquestionsI’dexpect
Alexato.
Inanotherexample,AlexaisbeingfittedintoBMWsfrom
2018.Usingmicrophonesembeddedintothecar,driverswill
beabletogiveAlexabasicvoicecommands,likeaskingfor
weatherornewsupdates.Fordhasalreadyunveiledcarsthat
allowdriverstosynctheirAlexadevicesandremotelyunlock
theircarjustbyaskingittounlock.
AmazonclearlyhasplanstogetAlexaintoasmanyproducts
asitcan.ThecompanyhasevensaidthatAlexawillbe
availableforBillyBass–youknow,thattalkingfishthathangs
onyourwall...
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Real-worldexample:GEandAlexaintegration
GESolhasunveiledatablelampwithatwist.Aswellas
offeringenergyefficiency,asleekdesignand,obviously,the
abilitytolightaroom,the‘C’lampis‘smart’.It’sfully
integratedwithallthevoiceandsoundcapabilitiesofAlexa,
meaningyoucanaskyourlamptoreadyouthelatest
headlines,giveyoutheweatherreport,orplayyourmusic.
Youcanevenaskyourlamptoadditemstoyourshoppinglist.
Thefutureisalreadyhere:Virtualreality(VR)and
augmentedreality(AR)
VRandARrepresentthenexthugeleapininterface
innovation.Morethanjustsci-fi,VRandARarealreadyfinding
veryrealapplicationsinourworld,andarelikelytochangethe
wayweinteractwithtechnology.
ButwhatisVRexactly?AndhowdoesARdiffer?Inanutshell,
thetermVRreferstotheuseofcomputertechnologytofully
immersetheuserinasimulated3Denvironment,tothe
extentthattheuserfeelsliketheyarephysicallyinthat
environment.AR,ontheotherhand,isrootedverymuchin
therealworld,notasimulatedenvironment.WithAR,
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informationorobjectsareoverlaidontowhattheuseris
seeingintherealworld.Bothtechnologiestypicallyworkusing
specialheadsetsorglasses,likeOculusRiftorGoogleGlass,
butappsareavailabletoofferVRandARexperiencesthrough
asmartphone(GoogleCardboardbeingoneexample).
HowbrandsarealreadytappingintoVRtechnology
There’squitealotofhypearoundthepotentialusesofVR,
andwithgoodreason.Researchhasshownthatconsumers
aremorelikelytobuyfromabrandthatusesVR,42meaning
thetechnologyhasthepotentialtoabsolutelytransform
marketing.Herearesomewaysbigbrandsarealready
harnessingVRtocreateabetterexperienceforconsumers:
• Mercedescreatedavirtualexperienceofdrivingthe
latestSLmodeldownCalifornia’sbeautifulPacific
CoastHighway.
• Oreoenticedcookieloverswithananimatedvirtual
land,completewithchocolatecanyons,topromotea
newcookieflavour.
42http://www.adweek.com/news/technology/new-study-says-people-are-more-likely-buy-brands-use-virtual-reality-172557
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• FootwearmanufacturerTomsisknownforits
philanthropicefforts,givingapairofshoestosomeone
inneedforeverypairthecompanysells.Thecompany
recentlycreatedanemotiveimmersiveexperience,
takingusersonagivingtriptoaremotePeruvian
village.
ARinaction
ARtechnologymaybeinitsinfancy,butthathasn’tstopped
businessesmakinggooduseofit.ARcreatesa‘mixed
environment’,blendingvirtualobjectsordatawiththereal-
worldenvironment–anapproachthat’sprovingparticularly
usefulinthemanufacturingsector.
Modernmanufacturingmayinvolveputtingtogethermany,
manycomplexcomponents,eachofthemdifferent.Usingan
ARdevice,youcanhaveinstructionsorschematicsavailableat
aglance,rightinfrontofyoureyes,whileyou’relookingatthe
componentinquestion.
Thiscanalsobeincrediblyusefulinamaintenancesetting,and
potentiallysavecompaniesalotoftimeandmoneyon
training.MitsubishiElectric,forexample,isdevelopingAR-
86
drivenmaintenancesupport,usinga3Dmodelthatshowsthe
userthecorrectordertoinspectapieceofequipment.
Maintenancestaffcanalsologinspectionresultswiththeir
voice.
ButtheapplicationsofARdon’tendinthemanufacturing
world.AllsortsoforganisationsaredevelopingAR
experiences:
• PepsiCorecentlytookoveraLondonbusshelterto
createanincredibleAR-enableddisplaythattricked
commutersbyoverlayingimagesontothereal-life
streetinfrontofthem.Theseimagesincludeda
meteorcrashingintotheground,atigerpadding
towardsthem,andalargetentaclepoppingupfrom
underneaththepavingslabs!
• TheUSArmyisharnessingARtoimprovesoldiers’
situationalawareness,usinganeyepiecethathelps
thempreciselylocatetheirposition,locateothers
aroundthem,andidentifywhetherthey’reafriendor
afoe.
87
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Atthemostbasiclevel,thistrendrequiresallbusinessesto
deliveragoodmobileexperience,andthatmeanshavinga
websitethatworksseamlesslyonphonesandtablets.This
maysoundobvious,but,accordingtoonesurvey,almosta
fifthofsmallbusinessesstilldon’thaveamobile-friendly
website.43
Goingbeyondmobile,businessesmustbereadytooffertheir
customersanAI-enabledchatbotexperience,whetherthat
meansintegratingAlexa(andotherAIassistant)technology
intoyourproducts,orputtingchatbotstoworkinyour
customerservice,marketingandsalesfunctions.
Andlookingevenfurtherahead,thewayweinteractwith
technologyisgoingtobecomemoreandmoreimmersive.
(Evenmoreimmersivethanhavingavirtualassistantwithyou
24/7,readytorespondtoyoureverywhim.)Companieswho
canbegindevelopingVRandARexperiencesareverylikelyto
reaptherewardsinthelongerterm.
43https://clutch.co/web-designers/resources/small-business-2017-website-survey
89
TREND8:BLOCKCHAINTECHNOLOGYWILLOVERHAULHOW
WESTORE,SHAREANDPROTECTDATA
Youmighthavealreadyheardofthephrase‘blockchains’,but
aren’tquitesurewhatitmeans.Ormaybeyouthink
blockchainsarejustanothertechybuzzword,soontobe
overtakenbythenextbigthing.
Butblockchainsaremorethanjustabuzzword.Blockchain
technologyisaverypractical,incrediblyusefulsolutiontothe
problemofstoring,authenticatingandprotectinginformation.
Assuch,ithasusesinmanyindustrieswheretransactions,
identitiesorinformationneedstobeauthenticated,including
bankingandinsurance.ThispotentialhasledIBMCEOGinni
Romettytodeclare,‘WhattheInternetdidfor
communications,blockchainwilldofortrustedtransactions.’
Inverysimplisticterms,ablockchainisakindofdecentralised,
extremelysecuredatabase.Toputitinmoretechnicalterms,
it’sadistributed,peer-to-peerledgerofrecords,whichmeans
thestoragedevicesfortherecordsinthedatabasearenotall
connectedtoacommonprocessor.
Therecordsinablockchainarecalled‘blocks’(sothat’swhere
the‘block’partcomesfrom)andeachblockislinkedtothe
previousblock(hence,‘chain’).
90
Inthischapter,we’llgettogripswithhowblockchainswork,
andsomeofthefar-reachingimplicationsofblockchainsthat
willseethetechnologychangeourworld.
Howdoblockchainswork?
Everyblockinablockchainhasatimeanddatestamp,andthe
wholechainisself-managed,meaningitdoesn’tneeda
centralintermediarytocoordinateeverything.Thatmeans
there’snoonepersonororganisationinchargeoftheentire
chain,andeverythingisgovernedbyconsensus(whichiswhat
makesitapeer-to-peernetwork).Ablockchainistransparent,
soeveryoneinthechaincanseethedetailsofeachblockor
record.Thechainitselfcanbepublic(liketheInternet)or
private(likeanintranet).
Publicorprivate,blockchainsareincrediblysecurebecause
userscanonlyeditthepartsoftheblockchainthatthey‘own’,
bypossessingtheprivatecryptographykeyneededtoalterthe
file.Andwhenchangesaremadetoablock,thewhole
blockchainiskeptinsynchandeachuser’scopyofthe
blockchainisupdatedinrealtime.Whilenothingistotally
‘hack-proof’thesedays,blockchainrepresentsahugeleap
forwardcomparedtoourcurrentsecuritytechnology.
91
Here’sanexampleofhowthismightworkinpractice.Imagine
adigitalmedicalrecordasablockchain.Eachentry(e.g.a
diagnosisandtreatmentplan)isaseparateblock,withatime
anddatestampthatmarkswhentherecordwascreated.Only
peoplewiththenecessaryprivatekeycanaccessthe
informationinthatblock.So,inthiscase,thedoctormight
haveoneprivatekey,andthepatientanother.Information
canbesharedwithanotherparty–aconsultantorspecialist,
forinstance–butonlywheneitherthedoctororpatient
sharestheirprivatekeywiththatparty.
Ifthisisallsoundingabitfamiliartoyou,itmightbebecause
thevirtualcurrencyBitcoinfunctionsonblockchain
technology.Blockchainservesasthepublicledgerforall
bitcointransactions,operatingwithouttheuseofacentral
serveroroverseeingauthority.Infact,blockchainwas
originallydevelopedforBitcoinuse,butitsapplicationsare
spreadingmuchfurtherthanthecryptocurrency.Infact,
blockchaincanbethoughtofasthe‘Internetofvalue’,
providingareal-timeledgerofprettymuchanythingthatcan
berecorded:financialtransactions,contracts,supplychain
info,evenphysicalassets.
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Real-lifeapplicationsbeyondBitcoin
Rightnow,only0.5percentoftheworld’spopulationisusing
blockchain.44Butthatwillchange.IBM,forexample,is
dedicating$200millionand1,000employeestoblockchain-
poweredprojects.45NinetypercentofmajorEuropeanand
NorthAmericanbanksareexploringblockchainsolutions.46
AndarecentWorldEconomicForumreporthaspredicted
that,by2025,10percentofGDPwillbestoredonblockchains
orblockchain-relatedtechnology.47
Let’stakealookatsomeofthewaysblockchaintechnology
canbeusedinpractice.
Speedingupclaimsandpreventingfraudintheinsurance
industry
Blockchainisalongwayfromwidespreadadoptioninthe
insuranceworld,butthetechnologyhasthepotentialto
dramaticallyimproveinternalprocesses,makingthemfar
moreefficientandsecure.
44ttps://www.reddit.com/r/ICONOMI/comments/61hmv4/10_blockchain_facts_that_every_investor_should/45https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/blockchain-statistics/46https://expandedramblings.com/index.php/blockchain-statistics/47http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GAC15_Technological_Tipping_Points_report_2015.pdf#page
93
Blockchaincould,forexample,helpspeeduptheresolutionof
insuranceclaimsthroughtheuseofsmartcontracts.Contracts
wouldberecordedandverifiedontheblockchaininthefirst
instance.Then,intheeventofaclaim,theblockchainwould
ensurethatonlyvalidclaimsarepaidbyensuringcriteriain
thesmartcontractaremet.Whenthecriteriaaremet,the
blockchaincouldtriggerpaymentoftheclaimwithoutany
humaninteraction.
Insurancecompaniesarebattlingfraudonalargescale.
Blockchainfunctionsonaprocessofdecentralisedvalidation,
whichwouldmeancustomers,policiesandtransactionscould
beindependentlyverifiedforauthenticity.Admittedly,this
wouldrequireextensivecooperationbetweeninsurers,
customers,manufacturers,andotherparties(likethepolice),
buttheideaisthatpartieswouldusetheblockchaintoshare
andvalidateinformation.
Disruptingthelegalprofession(inagoodway)
Blockchain’ssecurityandtransparencycouldhelpdeliverhuge
benefitstothelegalprofession.Forinstance,thesmart
contractsthatIalludedtointheprevioussectioncouldsee
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contractsbeingautomaticallygeneratedandself-executing,
withoutanyhumanlegalinterventionrequired.
Or,inanotherexample,blockchaincouldbeusedtomonitor
andauthenticatelanddeeds.Thiswouldbeparticularly
helpfulindevelopingcountrieswhereitcanbechallengingto
keeptrackofwhoownswhatbitofland.Apublicblockchain
ledgerclearsupanyconfusion,allowingallpartiestoseewho
ownswhichlanddeeds,andwhenownershipswitchedhands.
Blockchain-basedbankingandfinancialservices
Imentionedthatmanymajorfinancialinstitutionsarealready
investinginleveragingblockchaintechnology.Consideringthe
potentialcostandlaboursavingsblockchainwouldbring,it’s
nowonder.Trillionsofdollarsaremovedaroundour
antiquatedglobalfinancialsystemeveryday–andthese
transactionsareoftenslow,costlyandopentofraud.
Financialservicesis(fornow,atleast)theindustrywhere
expertsseethemostobviousandnumerousapplicationsof
blockchaintechnology.Herearesomeofitspotentialuses:
• Reducingfraud:Mostbankingsystemsarebuiltonthe
ideaofacentraliseddatabase,which,becauseithas
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onepointoffailureratherthanmany,ismore
vulnerabletocyberattack.Blockchainsarenot
centralised,andarethereforelessopentoattack.
• Knowyourcustomer(KYC):Customerduediligence
andKYCregulations–whicharedesignedtohelp
reducemoneylaundering–costfinancialinstitutions
upto$500millionperyear.48Blockchainallowsclients
tobeindependentlyverifiedandidentified,andfor
otherpartiesinthechain(i.e.otherbanksorfinancial
servicesproviders)toaccessthatverification–
meaningtheydon’thavetorepeattheKYCprocess.
• Smarterpayments:Atthemoment,therearealotof
intermediariesinthepaymentprocessingsystem.
Blockchaintechnologyeliminatestheneedformanyof
them,therebysimplifyingthepaymentprocess,while
beefingupsecurity.
48https://www.thomsonreuters.com/en/press-releases/2016/may/thomson-reuters-2016-know-your-customer-surveys.html
96
Real-worldexample:APPIIandtheendofCV
‘embellishments’
Blockchaintechnologycouldhavefar-reachingimplicationsfor
thewayemployersassesscandidatesforvacancies.In2017,
APPIIlaunchedtheworld’s‘firstblockchaincareerverification
platform’,49whichisdesignedtogiveemployersconfidence
thatthecandidatesittinginfrontofthemiswhotheysaythey
are,andthattheyactuallydohavetheexperienceand
qualificationstheyclaim.
APPII’splatformallowscandidatestocreatewhatitcalls
‘IntelligentProfiles’,listingtheireducation,professional
experience,accreditation,etc.onthedistributedledger,
whereitcanbeverifiedandpermanentlyrecorded.Previous
employersandeducationalinstitutescanverifythe
informationonthecandidate’srecord,meaningthehiringfirm
doesn’tneedtocheckallthosedetailsagain.Theplatformalso
usesfacialrecognitiontechnologytoverifyacandidate’s
identity,askingthemtotakeapictureusingtheAPPIIapp,and
thencomparingthatphototoofficialIDrecords,suchas
passports.
49https://appii.io/
97
Thissavesemployersmanyhours,sometimesevenweeks’of
worktoverifycandidates–andinanyfieldwherecontracting
iscommonplace(IT,forexample),thetimesavingscouldbe
considerable.Italsogiveshiringmanagersconfidenceinthe
candidate’sskills.Withonestudyreportingthatmorethan
halfofhiringmanagershavecaughtcandidatesfibbingon
theirCVs,50itmakessensethatAPPII’sservicewillbe
welcomedbymanyabusiness.
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Today,blockchaintechnologyisaboutasmatureasthe
Internetwasin1996,51soit’sfairtosaywe’vegotawaytogo
beforeblockchainsbecomecommonplace.Therearealso
significanthurdlestoovercomearoundindustryregulation,
privacylaws,andtheneedtosecurepersonaldata.
There’snodoubt,though,thattheblockchainrevolutionis
underway,andmostindustryexpertsconcurit’swherewe’re
headed.Theimpactofblockchaintechnologywillbe
50http://time.com/money/3995981/how-many-people-lie-resumes/51http://www.ey.com/Publication/vwLUAssets/EY-blockhain-in-insurance/%24FILE/EY-blockhain-in-insurance.pdf
98
enormous,changingtheveryfoundationofoureconomicand
socialsystems.
Fullintegrationislikelytotakeyears,ifnotdecades,soitmay
seemlikeit’snotworthconsideringthepracticalimplications
foryou.Thatwouldbeamistake.Lookathowquicklythe
Internettookoffandhowdramaticallyithasalteredalmost
everyfacetofoureverydaylives.Blockchainsmaybejustas
significant.Therefore,itpaystokeepabreastofdevelopments
inthefield.
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TREND9:PLATFORMSWILLCHANGETHEWAYWEALLDO
BUSINESS
Thisfinaltrendleveragesmuchofthetechnologywe’ve
alreadylookedatinthisbook.BigDataandtheincreasing
dataficationofourworld,beefed-upcomputingpower,smart
devicesandtheshifttomobile,AIandautomation–allof
thesehavecreatedaperfectstorm.Andoutofthatstormhas
comeplatformbusinesses.
Thedifferencebetweenatraditionalbusinessmodelanda
platformbusinessmodelisthedifferencebetweenanold-
schoolcabcompanyandUber.Thefirstisheavilybasedon
assets,withcarsthatneedmaintainingandupdating,anda
teamofemployeestodrivethosevehicles.Thesecondtaps
intotheunlimitedpowerofthecrowd,unitingthosewitha
carinneedofsomecash,withpeoplewhowantaride.With
Uber,theplatformfacilitatesinteractionsbetweencustomers
andproviders.Theplatformisthebusiness.And,ofcourse,all
thoseinteractionsgeneratelotsandlotsofdata–datathat
helpstheplatformbusinessimproveitsserviceofferingand
keepthecrowdcomingbackformore.
PlatformshavegivenrisetobusinesseslikeAirbnb,eBayand
Amazon,aswellasthegigeconomyitself.Theyarealsothe
101
foundationofwhatthebigsocialmediabusinesseslike
FacebookandTwitterdo.However,theinfluenceofplatforms
extendsfarbeyondthesegiants;nowevenlong-running
businesseswithmoretraditionalbusinessmodelsare
beginningtodevelopplatformstrategies.
Aswe’llseeinthischapter,thistrendrepresentsa
fundamentalchangetobusinessmodelsandstrategy–
probablythebiggestdisruptiontobusinessstrategythatI’ve
seen.Andthatmeanseverybusiness,regardlessofsizeor
industry,needsaplatformstrategy.
Whatisaplatform?
Aplatformisessentiallyanetwork(digitalorphysical)that
createsvalueforparticipantsbyfacilitatingconnectionsand
exchangesbetweenpeopleforservices,productsor
information.Theplatformapproachisallaboutleveragingan
ecosystemtocreatevalue.It’snotexactlyanewinvention–a
groceryshop,forinstance,connectsconsumerswiththe
producerswhogrowfruitandveg–buttheothertrendsthat
we’veseenthroughoutthisbookhaveallowedplatformsto
offergreatervaluethaneverbefore,disruptingmanyan
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industryandsectorintheprocess.Justthinkoftheimpact
Airbnbhashadonthehospitalityindustry.
What’scrucialisthatthecompanyisrarelytheactualservice
provider;instead,theyactasafacilitatorforthecrowd,
makinginteractionspossible,easy,andsafeforboththe
providerandtheuser.
Thebenefitsofplatformsincludeunlockingnewsupplyand
demandstreams,eliminatinggatekeepers,buildingamore
nimblebusinesswithfewerassetsandrawmaterials
(remember,Uberdoesn’towncars),andofferingmorevalue
tousers.Valueisabsolutelykeytoplatformsuccess.Themore
valuableaplatformornetworkistoitsendusers,themore
successfulitbecomes.
Lookingattheplatformbusinessmodel
AccordingtoDeloitte,52therearefourmainbusinessmodels
intowhichalmostanybusinessfits.Startingwiththemost
traditionalbusinessmodelsandprogressingtothenewer
ones,theseare:
52https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/finance-transformation/us-cfo-insights-valueshift-120314.pdf
103
• Assetbuilders:Thisencompassescompaniesthat
makeorsellphysicalitems.Businessesthatfallinto
thiscategoryincludemanufacturing,retail,realestate,
construction,andsoon.
• Serviceproviders:Thesecompanieshireemployeesto
provideaservicetocustomers.Thisincludesanything
fromconsultancybusinesses,financialinstitutionsand
lawfirms,todrycleanersandcarrepairworkshops.
• Technologycreators:Thiscoverscompanieswho
createandsellintellectualproperty,suchassoftware,
pharmaceuticalsandanalytics.
• Networkmatchmakers(alsoknownasplatforms):
Thesecompaniescreateanetworkandconnect
individualstoprovidevalue.Participantsinthe
networkmaysellproductsorservicestoeachother,
giveadviceorreviews,collaborate,orsimplycultivate
relationships.Facebook,Twitter,Amazon,Airbnband
Uberareallplatformbusinesses.Google,which
connectspeoplesearchingforstuffwithadvertisers
whohavestufftosell,isanotherplatformbusiness.
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Thetop15platformcompaniesrepresentanimpressive$2.6
trillioninglobalmarketcapitalisation.53What’smore,Deloitte
foundthattechnologycreatorsandplatformbusinessesare
typicallyvaluedattwotofourtimeshigherthanasset-or
service-basedbusinesses.54Aswellasachievingahigher
valuation,networkbusinessestypicallyhaveloweroverheads.
It’snowonderthenthat81percentofexecutivessay
platform-basedbusinessmodelswillbeacentralpartoftheir
growthstrategywithinthreeyears.55
Developing,expandingorshiftingyourbusinessmodeltoa
platformmodelrequiresashiftinmindsetawayfromphysical
assetstospottingthevalueofintangibleassets.Dataisone
suchintangibleasset,asisanapporyoursocialmedia
presence,orevenyournetworkofcustomers.Mostofthe
businessesIworkwitharesittingonplentyofintangibleassets
withoutreallyrealisingit–particularlywhenitcomestodata.
Keytomakingaplatformbusinessmodelworkisrecognising
howthoseassetscandeliveroraddvalue,andthen
developingorexpandingthoseassets.
53https://www.accenture.com/gb-en/insight-digital-platform-economy54https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/tr/Documents/finance-transformation/us-cfo-insights-valueshift-120314.pdf55https://www.accenture.com/gb-en/insight-digital-platform-economy
105
Crowd(andcloud)powerpacksarealpunch
Airbnbwouldbeuselesswithoutitsnetworkofpeople
providingaccommodation.Facebook,TwitterandYouTubeall
relyonthecrowdtogeneratethecontentpeoplewanttoread
andsee.The‘crowd’–anonlinecommunityornetwork–is
absolutelycriticaltothesuccessofplatforms.
WetalkedaboutthecloudinChapter3andhowithas
revolutionisedthewaywestoreandworkwithdata.WhatI
didn’tmentionthen,butisequallytrue,isthatthecloudhas
fundamentallychangedemploymentandthewaywework
forever.
Asmoreandmorebusinessesandapplicationsheadforthe
cloud,it’sbecomingmucheasierforcompaniestosayyesto
hiringremoteworkersortapintoexpertisewheneverthey
needit.IntheUKalone,therearealreadyaroundfivemillion
crowdor‘gigeconomy’workers,56peopleworkingviadigital
platformslikeUpworkorUber.
Relatedtothiscloudworkingmovementisthesharing
economy.Ridesharing,apartment/homelending,peer-to-peer
lending,reselling,coworking,talent-sharing–thesharing
56https://phys.org/news/2016-02-million-crowd-workers-uk-gig.html
106
economyistakingoffallovertheworld.Beyonda
disillusionmentwithconsumerism,what’sdrivingthistrendis
data,computingpower–and,ofcourse,platforms.Most,if
notallofthesecrowd-workingandsharingnetworkupstarts
wouldnotbeviablebusinesses,certainlynotonalargescale,
withoutleveragingaplatformandafoundationofBigData.
Withoutasophisticatedapptomatchadriverwitharider,
Uberwouldn’tbecompetitivewithtaxidriverswhocruise
aroundalldaylookingforfares—andthesameistrueofeach
oftheseplatformservices.
Real-worldexample:HowGithubdemonstratesthepowerof
thecrowd
Describedas‘thecloudforcode’or‘Facebookfor
programmers’,Githubisoneofthelargestcoding
communitiesintheworld,allowinguserstoupload,shareand
publishopensourceprogrammingcode.It’savaluable
repositoryforcode,butitalsocreatesfurthervalueby
allowingcoderstocollaborate,reviewandimproveoneach
other’swork.
107
AsanexampleofhowinfluentialGithubis,Microsoft(yes,the
Microsoft,thecompanywhousedtobenotoriouslyaverseto
theverynotionofopensource)isoneofGithub’stop
collaborators.Therearemorethan16,000peopleonGithub
contributingopensourceMicrosoftcode,someMicrosoft
employees,somenot.57FacebookandGoogleareothertop
collaborators.
NotonlyisGithubincrediblyinfluentialinthetechworld,it’s
alsoavaluablecompanybyanystandards.It’svaluedat
around$2billion,andhasattracted$350millionininvestment
inrecentyears.58
Thisallsoundsgreat,butwhatabouttraditionalbusinesses?
It’simportanttostressthatplatformbusinessmodelsaren’t
justfortechnologycompanies.Platformsoffergrowth
opportunitiesacrossallkindsofbusinesses,industriesand
sectors.
Ford,forexample,istestingoutashiftfromanassetbusiness
toaplatformbusinesswithapilotcar-sharingoffering.59With
57http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-github-open-source-2016-958https://www.forbes.com/sites/miguelhelft/2015/07/29/github-raises-250-million-in-round-led-by-sequoia-capital/#2ba01e534cb659http://fortune.com/2016/01/12/ford-leasing-pilot/
108
theriseofbusinesseslikeUberandLyft,Fordistryingto
adjustitsbusinessmodeltocapitaliseonseismicmarketshifts.
ThemedicalequipmentmanufacturerPhilipsisanother
exampleofanasset-basedbusinesstransitioningtoa
platform.Thecompanyisteamingupwithcloudpartners
AmazonWebService,AlibabaCloudandSalesforcetolaunch
thePhilipsHealthSuitecloud-basedplatform–asuiteoftools
thatfacilitatepersonalisedhealthcare.60
Whatthistrendmeansforyou
Fromthosecompaniesthatarelightontraditionalassets,like
GoogleandFacebook,toasset-heavycompanieslikeFordand
Philips,platformsarebecomingafundamentalpartof
businessstrategy.Thatmeanseverycompanycanandshould
haveaplatformstrategy.
Tocreateasolidplatformstrategy,youmustconsiderthree
questions:
• Howwillyourplatformsupporttheexchangeof
value?Essentialtoasuccessfulplatformisdetermining
howyourplatformwillcreateandcapturevalue.Or,to
60https://www.usa.philips.com/healthcare/innovation/about-health-suite
109
putitanotherway,howwillparticipantsinyour
platformbenefitfromothersintheplatform?
• Howwillyouattractanddriveuserstoyourplatform?
ImagineUberwithoutthedrivers.Itjustwouldn’t
work.Youmustthereforefigureouthowyou’ll‘seed’
userstoyourplatform,forexample,byofferingfree
servicesorlowprices.
• Howwillyourplatformencourageinteractions?Your
platformshouldbecomethecoreofacommunity–
somethingthatconnectspeopleandaddsvalue–and
thismeansencouragingparticipantstointeractwith
eachother.YourgoalistomakeitTHEplacewhere
consumersmeetandcommercehappens(whether
thatmeansgoods,servicesorinformation).
Governancepoliciesarekeytoensuringthese
interactionspreservevalueandanexemplary
experience.
Together,thesequestionswillhelpyoubegintheprocessof
leveragingaplatformandcommunitytocatapultyour
businesstosuccess.
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CONCLUSION:LOOKINGAHEADTOABRIGHTERFUTURE
There’snodoubtthatsomeofthesetrends,particularly
automation,willseejobschange,andevendisappear.Andit’s
alsotruethatsomeofthesetrendshavethepotentialto
seriouslycreeppeopleout,particularlywhenitcomestothe
increasingdataficationofourlives.Afterall,noteveryone
wantstheirbank,mobilephoneproviderorcarmanufacturer
knowingeverylittledetailabouttheirdailyhabits.
Butwiththesetechtrendscomehugeadvantages,efficiencies
andimprovementstoourlives.Foreverypersoncreepedout
bythethoughtofBigDataorAI,isanotherwhocouldhave
theircancerdiagnosedearlierthankstomachineleaning.And
forbusinesses,regardlessofsize,industryortargetmarket,
thesetrendsofferenormouspotentialtobetterunderstand
andconnectwithcustomers,provideabetter,moreefficient,
moresecureservice,anddeliverexcitingnewproductsand
services.Alsowiththesetechtrendscomenewjobs,andeven
wholenewindustries.
Ithereforebelievetheseninetrendsarealreadyshaping,and
willcontinuetoshape,ourworldinapositive,excitingand
inspiringway.Ihopethisbookhasinspiredyoutolearnmore
112
aboutthesetrendsandconsiderhowtheycouldbeadoptedin
yourbusinessorindustrytoeffectpositivechange.
IfyouenjoyedthiseBook,whynotheadtomywebsitefor
morearticles,casestudies,eBooksandmore…
www.bernardmarr.com
113
AbouttheAuthor
BernardMarrisaninternationallybest-sellingbusinessauthor,keynotespeakerandstrategicadvisortocompaniesandgovernments.Heisoneoftheworld'smosthighlyrespectedexpertswhenitcomestobusinessperformance,digitaltransformationandtheintelligentuseofdatainbusiness.
BernardisaregularcontributortotheWorldEconomicForumandwritesweeklycolumnsforForbes,HuffingtonPostandLinkedInwherehisarticlesarereadbymillions.HisexpertcommentsalsoregularlyfeatureonTVandradio(e.g.BBCNews,SkyNewsandBBCWorld)aswellasinhigh-profilepublicationssuchasTheTimes,TheGuardian,TheFinancialTimes,theCFOMagazineandtheWallStreetJournal.
Bernardisamajorsocialmediainfluencerwithover1.5millionfollowersacrossLinkedIn,Twitter,FacebookandSlideShare.Infact,BernardisrecognisedbyLinkedInasoneofthetop5businessinfluencersintheworld.
Hehaswritten15booksandhundredsofhighprofilereportsandarticles,includingtheinternationalbest-sellers‘DataStrategy’,‘BigDatainPractice’,'BigData','KeyBusinessAnalytics',‘KeyPerformanceIndicators’,'TheIntelligentCompany’,‘ManagingandDeliveringPerformance’and‘StrategicPerformanceManagement’.Hisbookshavebeentranslatedintoover15languagesandhaveearnednumerousAmazonNo1bestsellingpositions,theCMIManagementBookoftheYearawardandtheWHSmithbestbusinessbookaward.
114
Bernardhasworkedwithandadvisedmanyoftheworld'sbest-knownorganisationsincludingAccenture,AstraZeneca,BankofEngland,Barclays,BP,Cisco,DHL,Fujitsu,Gartner,HSBC,IBM,Mars,MinistryofDefence,Microsoft,NATO,TheHomeOffice,NHS,Oracle,Orange,Tetley,T-Mobile,Toyota,RoyalAirForce,SAP,Shell,theUnitedNations,WalgreensAllianceBoots,Walmart,amongmanyothers.
Youcanalsofollow@bernardmarronTwitter,whereheregularlyshareshisideasorconnectwithhimonLinkedInwherehewritesaregularblog.