17 november 2013 - slocat.net · 17nov2013 transport day in cop19 warsaw yoshitsugu hayashi, nagoya...

17 November 2013

Prof. Yoshitsugu Hayashi

President of WCTRS (World Conference on Transport Research Society)

Director, International Research Center for

Sustainable Transport and Cities, Nagoya University, Japan

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 1

17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 2 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

Transport as

1) Causer of CO2 and pollution

2) Supporter for CO2 and pollution causers (industries)

3) Victim of climate change

4) Barrier for sustainability



Car Ownership

GDP per Capita US$ (1995)

Car

s p

er

1,0

00

inh

abit

ants

Yoshi Hayashi, Sep. 2010

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000

London

Tokyo

Bangkok

Seoul

Hong kong

Singapore (CA)

‘95

‘05

‘95 ‘95

‘00 ‘85

‘85

‘80

‘95

‘95

‘00

‘70

‘60

Nagoya

Shanghai

‘95

‘02 Beijing

05

09

‘05

‘05

‘05

2012/9/24 Yoshitsugu Hayashi SUSTRAC Nagoya Univ.

Photo by Hayashi(1993)

Slower than walkers in Sukunvit Rd, Bangkok

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

5

London

Tokyo Nagoya

Bangkok

0 50 km 1910

1965

1985

Changes in Built-up Areas

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

6

Upgrading Transport to a Key Sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Africa

Latin America

Middle East

Other Asia

India

China

Eastan Europe

Russia

OECD ASIA

Australia and NZ

OECD Europe

Anglo America

1

Car Ownership Trend

Bill

ion

Veh

icle

s

Transport 22%

Other Sectors 78%

Transport

Other Sectors ?%

18



Serious Air Pollution Jointly by Industry, Household and Traffic

9 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

Air Pollution Blowing Housings



Emissions from Motorways Occupied by Lorries as a Result of Road Transport based Industrial Development

11 Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16



CO2 Emission Growth in Transport from Economic Growth C

O2

em

issi

on

s fr

om

tra

nsp

ort

(M

illio

n t

on

)

GDP (trillion US $)

US

China

Japan 54 CO2 Mt/ trillion

US$ in 1990

57 CO2 Mt/ trillion

US$ in 1960

132 CO2 Mt/ trillion

US$ in 2010


US$ in 2007


US$ in 1960


US$ in 1992 EU

76 CO2 Mt/ trillion

US$ in 1960

66 CO2 Mt/ trillion

US$ in 2010



China

US US

China vs Japan Tonnage

GDP [tril.US$]

CO2

[bil.t-CO2]

Total ton-km

Road ton-km

Japan

1961 2004

1998

2011

1998

2011

2011 2011

1998 1990

2003 1990

2003

1998



Japan

China

US US

Change the slope by AVOID/SHIFT/IMPORVE

Tonnage

GDP [tril.US$]

CO2

[bil.t-CO2]

Total ton-km

Road ton-km

Japan

1961 2004

1998

2011

1998

2011

2011 2011

1998

1990

2003

1990

2003

1998

AVOID Efficient

Supply Chain

SHIFT Shift to rail

IMPROVE Energy

Efficient

Vehicles

Strategies

Means

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE

Technologies

• Transport oriented

development (TOD)

• Poly-centric development

• Efficient freight distribution

• Railways and BRT

Improvement

• Interchange improvement

among railway, BRT, bus and

para-transit modes

• Facilities for personal mobility

and pedestrians

• Development of electric

vehicles

• Development of biomass

fuel

• "Smart grid“ development

Regulations • Land-use control

• Separation of bus/para-transit

trunk and feeder routes

• Local circulating service

• Control on driving and parking

• Emissions standards

• “Top-runner" approach

Information

• Telecommuting

• Online shopping

• Lifestyle change

• ITS public transport operation

• "Eco-driving"

• ITS traffic-flow management

• Vehicle performance

labeling

Economy • Subsidies and taxation to

location

• Congestion Charge

• Cooperative fare systems

• Value capture

• Fuel tax/carbon tax

• Preferential taxation to low-

emissions vehicles



Introduction 1990s (Before MRT Development)

2000s (After MRT Development)

Photo by Hayashi, 1993 Photo by Hayashi, 2002

Trend of Traffic Congestion

Ave

rage

sp

ee

d (

km/h

r)

21.5

8.1

14.0

19.0

15.2

Trend of Traffic Congestion in Bangkok



10 lines, total distance 464 km

Thammasat Rangsit – Maha Chai (80.8 km)

Bang Yai – Rat Burana (42.8 km)

Salaya – Hau Mak (54 km)

Bang Sue – Tha Phra – Phutthamonthon sai 4 (55 km)

Yod se – Bang Wa (15.5 km)

Lam Luk Ka – Bang Pu (66.5 km)

Khae Rai – Min Buri (36 km)

Lat Phrao – Sam Rong (30.4 km)

Taling Chan –Thailand Cultural Center – Mon Buri (32.5 km)

18 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

Success in 3 projects

More public support

Government policy shift to Railway (2011)

1st Leapfrog

Yoshitsugu Hayashi, Nagoya University

SA Express (4-car train) SA City Line (3-car train)

Bangkok Airport Link: Rolling Stock

Source: Dr. Krit, State Railways of thailand



Disbursement

0.51%

Railway 82.29%

Customs 0.61%

2.2 trillion Baht

Road 14.47%

Port 1.49%

MRTA Projects Cost (mil. Baht)

Blue Line extension 82,369.14

Green Line extension

100,106.11

Pink Line 58,658.15

Orange Line 115,263.50

Yellow Line 57,466.50

Source: Thailand 2020 (2013), Ministry of Transport 20 17Nov2013 Transport Day in COP19 Warsaw

1st Leapfrog



- Methodology for MRV in NAMAs-


- Urban Transport-

CO2

1989 2005 2050 2020

Leap-Frog

Bangkok

CO2 Per Capita from transport

3.5t (2007)

BAU

Master Plan in 2020

Heavy Congestion BTS Sky Train

20km MRT Development

81km 10lines total 464km

1999 1989 2010

Car 51％

Bus 49％

Rail 5％

Car 57％

Bus 38％

Rail Car

Urban Vision



0,000

0,500

1,000

1,500

0 20.000 40.000 60.000

0

100

200

300

400

0 20.000 40.000 60.000

Trip Frequency

Built-up Area

Traffic Speed

Fossil Fuel Share

Railway Network intensity

× ×

Travel Demand Car Dependency

GDP

(Modal Split) ＝

CO2 emissions

GDP

AVOID SHIFT IMPROVE Mitigation

Car Ownership

Fuel Efficiency

24

Energy Efficiency (Travel Distance)

GDP GDP

(CO2 Emission / km)

0

500

1.000

0 20.000 40.000 60.000

km2

Car/1000pop

Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA Km/ km2

Urban Policy Roadmap

Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA

Tokyo 23 Bangkok MA



0 25 50

CO₂ Emissions (Mt-CO₂/year)

car rail bus truck

25

凡例

! kogyo_yamashita

rail2010_2

expressway

zokusei

1

2

Industry

legend 凡例

! kogyo_yamashita

rail2010_2

expressway

zokusei

1

2

MRT

凡例

! kogyo_yamashita

rail2010_2

expressway

zokusei

1

2

Inner-ring

凡例

! kogyo_yamashita

rail2010_2

expressway

zokusei

1

2Outer-ring

15.2km/h

14.0km/h

8.9km/h

12.7km/h

Present

Without Outer-ring Roads

Without Inner-ring Roads

Without MRT

CO2：+10.7% Speed：-16.3%

CO2：+1.1% Speed：-8.0%

CO2：+0.8% Speed：-41.7%

1st Leapfrog



6000

7000

8000

9000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

26

Scenario of additionally developing MRT length In Bangkok

Urban sprawl calming by high density development around stations

15% 26% Pop/km2

①Early development

350

400

450

500

550

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Car ownership growth calming by rail-oriented travel habit

Car/1000pop

23% 44%

Changes from 2010 ① ②

MRT development timing scenario in Bangkok km

MRT Master Plan

②Later development




0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

27

The Roadmap for Low-Carbon Urban Transport Development in ASEAN Megacities

40%

24%

31%

25%

CO2-emission reduction Million tons

IMPROVE

SHIFT

AVOID

Land-use control (3% less annual expansion of built-up area)

Increasing LEV share (EV76%, HV23%), Improving Fuel Efficiencies (by 28%) Emission intensity of power generation (2005:1269g-CO2/kwh 2050: 546g-CO2/kwh)

4,568 km MRT development, (6cities, Ave.: 760 km/city)

23,337km BRT development (23cities, Ave.:1015km/city)





- Inter-regional Transport-

Shanghai

Singapore

Phnom Penh

GMS (Greater Mekong Sub region)

29

Hanoi

Road(Economic Corridor)

Bangkok

Yangon

Kyaukpyu Port

Kunming

SHIFT

Inland Freight High Speed Rail (HSR) Development between Port Hubs

Proposing Vision:

Mainstreaming Rail and Water in Interregional Transport

AVOID

Local Cities on HSR

Light Industry

Advanced Industry & Commercial

Megacities on HSR

Cities on Local Freight Rail

Heavy Industry

Efficient

Supply Chain Low-Carbon Public

Transport Mobility

Technology &

Operation

Rail/Water Oriented Intermodal Transport System

Low-carbon Vehicles, Aircrafts, Vessels

Industrial Rail-Oriented Development (ROD) Corridor

IMPROVE

Interregional Vision




30 30

Current Industrial location（Bangkok） Scenario 1：

Priority to resilience for disaster

Scenario 2： Priority to low labor cost (Cambodia)

Scenario 3： Priority to larger economic market(Indian)

Route 2 (2,000km)

Port

Bangkok

Ho chi Minh City

530km

To India

Via Singapore

Impact analysis to reduce CO2 emissions by plant location change Efficient Industrial Supply Chain

Bangkok

100km

CO2 emission -3%

Present Scenario 1

Proximity location of Assembly plant and

supplier

Production Process

+25% CO2 emission

Present Scenario 2

Need of improving Production

process

Route 1 (5,000km)

Via Myanmar

From Thailand

-33% CO2 emission

Sea only Integrated transport

Seamless transport using sea and rail or truck



40% CO2 mitigation 30% time saving

31

Bangkok (Thailand)

1,000km

Case Study: Bangkok – Hanoi

Optimal Modal Splits for reducing 40% CO2 emission

Hanoi (Vetnum)

(with / without)

With railway

Without railway

30% time Saving

Truck Maritime

Railway 91.7%

14.2%




32

CO2-emission reduction

New GMS-wide HSR network is

necessary(●●km)

SHIFT

AVOID

Interregional Policy Roadmap



Key Massages

• Transport is “causer” as well as “victim” of climate change

• Simultaneous achievement of Sustainability + Resilience Co-benefits

• We are developing robust instruments for MRV in NAMA allowing more transport projects

• Good signs to reverse common sense from road to rail Bangkok (Rail: 0% in 90’s 82% now)

• Transport can trigger innovations in styles of production(Efficiency) and life (Sufficiency)



17 november 2013 - slocat.net · 17nov2013 transport day in cop19 warsaw yoshitsugu hayashi, nagoya...

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