160114 restructuring f edited - true friend
TRANSCRIPT
Microsoft Word - 160114 restructuring_f_edited :
: 10 10 . . , 2016 4, 2017 12 . 1) 2) . : , 1 (slowdown), (recession), (depression) . . . . 1 , . . , , , , . POSCO, 1 , . , . , , M/S . . (Only one) .
II. : .................... 15
III. : ............................... 19
IV. : ......................... 31
V. /: , ..... 37
2. : vs.
3. : 1 ,
II. : ...................................................................... 15
III. : ................................................................................ 19
1. ,
2.
3.
4. ! ?
IV. : ........................................................................... 31
1.
2.
3.
4.
V. /: , ................................................. 37
1. :
2. : 1
Contents
I. :
1. :
10 1. 1990 , . ( ) 4% 2000 15% . 1989 1990 , 2000 . , . [ 1] : 10
: Caballero(2008)
[ 2] ( ) [ 3] ( )
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
1 Caballero et al., “Zombie lending and depressed restructuring in Japan,” American Economic Review, Vol.98, No.5, 2008.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1
(JPY trn)
3
1999 ‘’ , ‘’ . 2003 4, 2007 8, 2009 4 . 2003 ‘ ’ , 2007 ‘’ ‘’ , 2009 , . , , . 3 . < 1>
(M&A), ,
,
/ or CO2
,
:
- 5%
-
( ) - / 10
-
- , 5%
- 5%
( )
-
-
- , ,
: ,
, , , . 52 125%, / 2.8 . ‘’ M&A . 6 , . 2 , ROE 10% .
Strategic Insight
4
‘ ’ , . 2014 2 ‘- ’ . , , GE 3 . 2000 ‘- ’ , . M&A . 2014 PC . VJ , VJ . . PC () , PC ROE . < 3>
2009 2010 2012 2014
1
2 & &
3
4
5 POSCO & POSCO POSCO
6 & POSCO
7 JFE
8 JFE
9 JFE JFE
10
:
: Bloomberg,
[ 4] [ 5] ROE
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
()
-
Sony Corp
- (25%~30%)
-
- ,
-
-
- ,
- 1
:
25( 14 ), 24
2. 234 213
VC 3
3. 1
4. 120,237
55 , 138. 268
5. 15
: 2014
: ,
[ 6] [ 7]
: , : ,
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
()
6
10 . 10 , . Caballero(2008) , , , . , . (TFP) . . ‘ ()’ ‘ 5(, , , , )’ 6 9 . – - .
[ 8] [ 9]
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
[ 10] vs. : [ 11] (TFP) : vs.
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
7
. . 1997 . . 1) 2008 (32.8%) (76.5%) , 2) , 1990 . 3 1 () 2009 12.8% 2014 15.2% 73% . , , , , . . , , ‘()’, .
< 6>
/
2009(A,%) 6.1 13.3 5.9 5.2 8.3 9.8 8.7 8.5 11.9 11.5 8.3 29.7 32
2014(B,%) 18.2 22.2 12.8 8.9 11.9 13.4 11.8 10.7 13.9 13.2 9.8 26.7 27.1
A-B(%P) 12.1 8.9 6.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.2 2 1.7 1.5 -3 -4.9
:
[ 12] vs. : [ 13] : vs.
: : Caballero(2008)
()
()
8
KDI() , 2. 1) 1.2 1.3 2.5 , 2) . 3 70% 33% .
[ 14] [ 15]
:
: 2015 6
: (/)
: 2015 6
[ 16] : vs. [ 17] : vs.
: 3 15%
: 2015 6
: 3 20%
: 2015 6
2 , “ ”, 2015 11 12 . 1
3 .
Strategic Insight
2. : vs.
(slowdown), (recession), (depression) . , . . 12 . (High Yield) CCC 2013 9.22% 3 2014 11.24% 2015 18.17% . , 2000 2008 (default rate) . . . [ 18] BofA
: FRED
: 2015 2016
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
CCC or below B BB(%)
5.1%
12.9%
16.4%
5.0%
1.5%
3.1%
3.3%
4.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F
10
BBB- // . // 30% . 3 2015 /, , / . 2015 . ‘ (yield hunting)’ . Fitch // 2016 1.5% () 2.1% 3 .
[ 20] ETF [ 21]
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
[ 22] : // [ 23] : ///
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
3 Fitch: 2016 US HY Default Rate Forecast at 4.5%, Energy at 11%
https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=996322
, 16.2
, 6.1
, 8.9
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
(2010.1.1=100)
:
:
:
: /
:
:
11
2016 . . < 7> . . < 7> 2016
4.5%
15-11-27 7 2016 20%
12 1.5
15-11-20 10 50
10%
: ,
2016 . , . 12 9 2016 ‘ ’ . 1) 3 , , 2) , . 2017 . 12 2016 , 1 (NDRC) , , . . [ 24]
: ,
15.10.12 15.11.4 15.11.10 15.12.14 15.12.21 16.1.12
() : ‘ ’
: ‘’
11 :
: M&A,
:
: ,
12
. 12 17 5 7.3% 3.6% . .
[ 25] 5 10 [ 26]
: Bloomberg, : Wind,
2012 . . . . [ 27] 2013~14 3~15% 15 . [ 27]
:
: Wind,
3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
(% YoY)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
(% YoY)
13
, . < 8> 8 . , , , . 10 1.59% 2009 .
[ 28] [ 29] NPL
: CEIC, : CEIC,
< 8>
( )
2014 10 ,
2015-04 12
2015-04 11
)
2015-05 1201 2015 10
2015-09 12MTN
2015-10 10 Call option
2015-10 10MTN
2015-11 15SCP CP
: ,
()
()
(%) ()
3. : 1 ,
. 2016 . (, ) M&A . . , . SDI . , . . 1 . . . . , . POSCO, 1 , . , . , , M/S . . (Only one) .
1
:
,
II. :
10 , , , , . , ( ) . 5 , . 2016 4 2 ( 1 8 ) 2015 1, 4,142 . , . 2016 . , . 12 30 ‘ ’ 12 / . 400% , (2015 9 747%, 786%) . < 9> -
- 2015 10 29
- 2 3, 3 1.2 1
- 2016 4.2 4.2
- 1.6
- (RG) , ,
- RG
- 2015 12 30 ,
12
- ( 400% )
: ,
16
RG() ( , ) RG . 88% , 12% . . < 10> (: )
1,624 0 7,316 3,873 12,812
2,117 44 1,060 2,465 5,686
71 0 1,169 36 1,603
268 0 579 17 864
442 0 112 73 627
427 5 0 75 508
263 0 60 53 377
47 0 269 5 321
83 0 0 17 100
6 30 0 0 37
20 0 0 1 21
0 20 0 0 20
16 0 0 0 18
16 0 0 1 16
12 0 0 0 12
6 0 0 0 6
3 0 0 1 4
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3,895 44 9,546 6,390 20,201
1,452 5 1,020 224 2,702
22 50 0 0 74
54 0 0 2 56
: 2015 12 29
: ,
RG , , . .
,
-
- : 2015 10 29 (4.2 )
- STX, :
- :
- :
- , 400%
-
-
- , , , ,
- TPA 30%
- , , , , ,
- 40%
-
-
: 2015 12 30
: ,
. . . , .
< 12>
, 1.5 3.25
( 0.5 0.75 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.5
2 )
+ PEF 300%
=> GP (50~70%) 8.4~14
,
-/LP , ,
15 10 22
11 , PEF
16 3
16 11 PEF
: ,
18
, . . (2018 36.2% 32% ). , . A . 2015 A . < 13>
- , /
- (18 20
, 33 )
- ,
( )
)
: ,
2016 , . . . . , . 6 12 .
1. ,
. 2015 , . 19 , 35 2015 54 . 12 30 500 368 . C 11, D 8 19 , 3, ·· 2, ···· 1, 5. 19 12.5, 1.5 .
< 14>
2015 2014 2013 2012
( 12.25,
( 3.7,
1.5 1 N/A 6,803 1.1
: 15 ,
: ,
2015 2014 2013 2012
'
'
'
'
175 125 112 97
(C 70, D 105) (C 54, D 71) (C 54, D 58) (C 45, D 52)
2 2,204 1 4,069 1 5,499 1 2,735
20
() ‘ ’ . , 1.5 . . , . 11 4,500. () 1/3 1,200 . . 1.5 1/3 . , . ‘ ’ () 19 . . . , , STX . · 6 . STX 4,530 , . , 2,000 . 2015 , . 2.
FY15 4 . 3 . () ( 6. , KB, , BNK, DGB, ) 3 4 , 4 3 63%, 6,130 1.5 . 4 () STX , . STX . , KEB, . 11 100% 2,500 . KEB, 500 .
FY2014 FY2015
271 191 352 288 207 312 51%
KB 324 291 194 265 166 294 77%
282 247 271 367 135 322 139%
214 550 299 392 235 371 58%
BNK 51 113 88 142 66 127 94%
DGB 47 37 41 52 65 60 -6%
1,189 1,430 1,245 1,506 872 1,486 70%
: 4Q15 , QoQ 3Q15 4Q15
: Quantiwise, ,
< 17> STX (: )
6,834 3,647 0 0 3,187 0
3,736 2,106 0 0 1,630 0
1,536 835 0 0 701 0
1,562 707 0 0 855 0
468 22 0 0 92 355
131 112 0 0 19 0
131 112 0 0 19 0
124 109 0 0 15 0
KEB 124 109 0 0 15 0
BNK 30 30 0 0 0 0
30 30 0 0 0 0
72 6 0 0 66 0
7,659 3,926 0 0 3,379 355
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
,
: KISLINE,
823 477 0 0 346 0
502 367 0 0 135 0
164 111 0 0 53 0
158 0 0 0 158 0
26 26 0 0 0 0
26 26 0 0 0 0
KB 108 100 0 0 8 0
108 100 0 0 8 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
165 99 0 0 66 0
KEB 165 99 0 0 66 0
164 158 0 0 5 0
BNK 40 40 0 0 0 0
40 40 0 0 0 0
85 10 0 0 75 0
1,411 911 0 0 501 0
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
, , 3) 15 12 30
: KISLINE,
22
< 19> ( ) (: )
160 152 0 0 8 0
107 100 0 0 7 0
33 32 0 0 0 0
17 16 0 0 1 0
4 4 0 0 0 0
KB 52 50 0 0 2 0
52 50 0 0 2 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
55 53 0 0 1 0
KEB 54 53 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
20 19 0 0 1 0
BNK 4 4 0 0 0 0
4 4 0 0 0 0
30 27 0 0 3 0
314 285 0 0 30 0
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
,
: KISLINE,
3.
1) 2,500, ···
. , · . 2014 2015 ( ‘’) , . , , . 2015 () 22,597 SOC 20,843 . ‘3 1 , 40% ’ . 2012~14 ‘/’ . 2,502 136, 88 . ‘ ’ 44, 16, 16, 1 9 . 2009 ‘, , , ’ . 431, 240, 159, 137 , .
2,502,
136,
88
NA SOC ,
: 1) , 2) 22,597 , 3) 14 , 4)
:
< 21> ( ) (: , )
240 16,172,004 10,931,298
431 15,609,466 13,934,285
55 4,534,082 3,414,909
, , , 128 4,455,861 3,603,737
2 4,417,610 2,748,289
; 57 3,375,515 2,551,947
159 3,212,043 2,390,569
110 3,084,608 2,398,818
137 2,529,796 2,152,224
89 2,263,496 2,058,016
43 2,178,185 1,961,894
; 80 1,886,585 1,464,417
42 1,809,516 1,497,536
; 51 1,641,109 1,476,119
46 1,481,672 1,219,287
, , 25 1,313,558 1,303,283
51 1,220,627 1,062,998
36 1,193,035 1,120,846
598 10,392,300 9,259,644
2,502 135,859,789 87,634,398
: (KSIC) ( 65), 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
24
< 22> ( ) (: , )
431 15,609,466 13,934,285
159 3,212,043 2,390,569
137 2,529,796 2,152,224
, , , 128 4,455,861 3,603,737
110 3,084,608 2,398,818
89 2,263,496 2,058,016
1 83 9,066,286 7,135,643
; 80 1,886,585 1,464,417
57 922,054 885,484
55 4,534,082 3,414,909
; 51 1,641,109 1,476,119
51 1,220,627 1,062,998
46 1,481,672 1,219,287
43 2,178,185 1,961,894
42 1,809,516 1,497,536
40 527,876 482,380
39 44,022,435 13,948,639
36 1,193,035 1,120,846
528 14,673,538 11,943,352
2,502 135,859,789 87,634,398
: (KSIC) ( 65), 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
2) 136, 88
136 , 105 77% . 11, · 8 . 105 64, 34, 5 . 29 . 21 , 12 , 9 KEB , 6 , 5 . [ 30] ( )
: 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE,
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
29,006,332 19,507,979
8,636,044 5,387,974
4,607,774 4,215,217
611,671 553,792
21,415,800 6,137,405
: KISLINE,
, ( ‘’) ? · . , ? 2015 6 ( + + ) 22. 88 65 33% . 33% . 12 . ‘ ’ 5 B 56% . 64%, 33%. ‘ ’ 33% . .
105, 65
?
24
26
< 24> (: , %)
1,063,150 21,660 2.04%
574,052 11,166 1.95%
485,638 9,701 2.00%
105,679 2,221 2.10%
109,718 1,417 1.29%
118,897 3,147 2.65%
69,180 1,348 1.95%
SC 12,991 294 2.26%
10,826 115 1.06%
58,347 1,159 1.99%
88,414 1,464 1.66%
19,390 366 1.89%
9,433 169 1.79%
23,014 372 1.61%
27,653 390 1.41%
6,962 133 1.91%
1,961 35 1.78%
489,098 10,494 2.15%
95,533 2,446 2.56%
16,810 374 2.23%
140,791 2,159 1.53%
120,761 3,117 2.58%
115,204 2,398 2.08%
: 15 6
: ,
[ 31] ( ) [ 32] ( )
: 1) 3 (2012~14) (/) 200% ( ) , 2) 5 (15 6)
: ,
3)
. [ 33] . 1 14 . (042660, ) 24 . 7.5 STX, (4.7), (003490, /TP 45,000, 4.4), (001230, Not rated, 3.8), SPP(2.9), (016380, Not rated, 2.2), (009830, Not rated, 1.7), (1.7 ), (097230, Not rated, 1.5) . . 4 , , . , STX, , SPP, . 63% . RG . , RG ‘ ’ . ‘’ ‘ ’ . [ 33]
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
23.5
7.5
4.7 4.4 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
4. ! ?
. ··· . . ? () . PBR . PBR . ‘ ’ ‘’ . trailing PBR 0.50 0.52 . ( ‘’) PBR , , BNK, , DGB , KB, . PBR 0.40 . PBR . PBR , ( , ) 1.0 . trailing PBR 0.50 0.69 . ( ‘ ’) , BNK, , DGB, , KB . , PBR 1 . 1 () , BNK . 0.52 . KB . [ 34] () trailing PBR PBR
: 1) 1 8 , 2) PBR
: Quantiwise, , KISLINE,
0.80
trailing PBR
PBR
PBR
29
< 25> , , PBR (: , )
KB BNK DGB KIS
('15.9 ) [A] 26,567 26,447 19,992 13,846 5,640 3,274 95,767
('15.9 ) [BDR] 2,106 2,458 2,214 2,159 425 214 9,576
('15.9 ) [RWA] 207,967 185,605 192,702 159,340 65,752 31,239 842,605
('16.1.7) [Mkt] 18,352 12,402 6,764 5,773 2,702 1,658 47,651
PBR [MKt/A] 0.69 0.47 0.34 0.42 0.48 0.51 0.50
[B=C+D] 4,253 5,765 5,340 6,508 2,016 729 24,611
[C] 2,048 2,965 2,527 2,805 1,184 371 11,900
[D] 2,205 2,800 2,812 3,703 832 358 12,710
[E] 4,187 5,275 4,667 4,294 1,093 563 20,079
( ) [E/B x 100%] 98% 91% 87% 66% 54% 77% 82%
[F=B-E+BDR] 2,171 2,948 2,886 4,373 1,348 380 4,531
[G=F/A] 8.2% 11.1% 14.4% 31.6% 23.9% 11.6% 4.7%
[F/RWA] 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5%
- [H=A-F] 24,395 23,498 17,106 9,473 4,292 2,894 91,236
PBR [Mkt / H] 0.75 0.53 0.40 0.61 0.63 0.57 0.52
() [I] 5,796 5,665 9,359 11,272 3,860 847 36,799
[J=I-E+BDR] 3,715 2,848 6,906 9,137 3,192 499 26,296
[K=J/A] 14.0% 10.8% 34.5% 66.0% 56.6% 15.2% 27.5%
[F/RWA] 1.8% 1.5% 3.6% 5.7% 4.9% 1.6% 3.1%
- [L=A-J] 22,852 23,599 13,087 4,710 2,448 2,776 69,471
PBR [Mkt / L] 0.80 0.53 0.52 1.23 1.10 0.60 0.69
: BNK 4,830( 7,000) , ,
: Quantiwise,
< 26> 20 (: )
KEB
1
IV. :
‘’ . . . ‘’ . . . 2016 . ‘ ’ . 1.
2012 2015 , , , 1,079 . , 1,675 . 596 . 2012 8,036 8,635 7.5% . . POSCO 82 . . < 27> (: )
251 300 220 650 1,421
2,500 2,500
46 264 1,570 40 1,920
56 61 29 62 208
72 6 4 82
1,793 882 5,555 2,556 10,786
: ,
2016,
32
. . POSCO 2013 7.3% 5.6% 2014 2015 . 2013 . . [ 35] POSCO
:
POSCO
2.
. 2015 2 4,100 . 2015 11 5,800 69.2% 70% . 2.8 . [ 36]
: 90%
:
2011 2015 ‘12.5’ . Top10 48.6% 60% . 2011 . 2011 1 498 282 2015 10 310 203 . , . . . 2011 1 18% 15% 2015 10 38% 34% . ’12.5’ .
[ 37] [ 38]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
26 2 58 82 77 96 93 147 195 200 241
83.9 89.6
74.7 72.4 72.4 69.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
(%) ()
()
()
11.01 11.07 12.01 12.07 13.01 13.07 14.01 14.07 15.01 15.07
()
(%)
3.
2016 ’13.5’ . 2015 . ’13.5’ 3 . 12 ’12.5’ . . . . . . (), () () 7.9 ( 1,413), 5.8 (1,038), 1.5 (268) . 2012 4. . 4.
. . . . . 12 () 58.5% . . . [ 39] , , ,
: 2015 1~10
: CEIC,
57 48
210
261
353
207
310
270
93
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
(RMB bn)
35
2015 10 (, , , ) 930 800 . . 11 11 . 2012 1,000 . . . . ‘’ . ‘’ . . 6%, BEP . . .
[ 40] [ 41]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
[ 42] [ 43]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
0.7
(2.9)(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
36
2011 . , .
12 30, ‘2015 ( 500 368) ’ C() 11, D() 8 , 19 . 3. 35 54 . 2010 50 . 14 (11), (8), (4) . 2015 . 14 . 5 , . 2013 , ‘’ . , . . , . . , . . 1) M&A (), 2) survivor (), 3) () . 2 . . 2016 key . 3 , , big2 . 1 , ‘Only one’ . 2016 big3 . . . . . catalyst . .
,
38
[ 44] [ 45]
: :
[ 46] PER Band [ 47] PBR Band
: Fnguide : Fnguide
[ 48] PER Band [ 49] PBR Band
: Fnguide : Fnguide
2,819 2,899 2,979 3,058
()
8x 12x
()
0.6x
1x
1.4x
1.8x
2.2x
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
()
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
(250,000)
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
()
0.4x
()
Strategic Insight
. (PEF) . 1.5 3.3 PEF . PEF . . . , . , , / . . . 2013~2014 500 ‘’ 36 . 10, ‘ ’ / / . 4 / 2016 1 . . . 1) 5% , , , 2) , 3) , . / / . , . // , 2015 4 . . [ 50] -
) 1,000
(200)
:
‘ ’,
,
Strategic Insight
40
// , . 11 26 , . . [ 51]
:
. 3 (5.4), GS(3.2), (2.4) . 2014 2.4 3 1.5 6,380 , 1.7 . 1.3 . Heavy tail . .
< 28> (: , %p)
4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3Q15 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3Q15
Samsung Eng 2,083 2,131 2,321 1,678 (643) 18.2% 21.7% 26.0% 24.8% -1.2%p
Daewoo E&C 1,303 1,533 1,636 1,558 (78) 15.9% 18.1% 16.6% 15.7% -0.9%p
Daelim Ind 1,370 1,357 1,354 1,346 (8) 16.4% 17.1% 18.7% 17.8% -0.9%p
HyundaiE&C(parents) 2,053 3,084 3,111 3,109 (2) 19.7% 29.1% 28.9% 30.5% 1.6%p
Samsung C&T 1,178 1,476 2,147 2,353 206 13.2% 11.0% 14.4% 19.8% 5.4%p
Hyundai eng 652 755 1,592 1,837 245 28.7% 28.8% 28.0% 25.5% -2.5%p
GS E&C 2,102 1,953 2,382 3,174 792 22.6% 20.4% 25.1% 30.6% 5.5%p
Total 10,741 12,289 14,542 15,055 513 18.2% 19.9% 22.1% 23.8% 1.8%p
: ,
,
41
1) 3 , 2) 2 1 , 3) 2 (-) . , . 2013~2014 . big3 , STX, SPP, , . .
< 29> // (: )
2014 3Q15 YTD OP 2013 2014 3Q15 YTD OCF 2013 2014 3Q15 YTD
1.0 0.2 (134) (156) (37) (502) (5) (59)
0.4 0.3 (23) (40) (25) 2 (4) (6)
GS 0.4 0.8 (1,028) 162 (1,476) (1,231) 256 (911)
NM NM (50) (104) 23 GS (1,154) 572 (455)
KCC 0.1 NM KCC (52) 1 (19) 35 32 (144)
NM NM 6 2 (12) 65 4 (127)
0.1 1.0 59 40 (9) 104 164 (52)
5.3 NM (3) 22 (5) 49 33 (7)
1.2 NM 46 16 (2) 13 2 (5)
1.4 NM 5 4 2 (1) 1 7
1.8 NM 4 3 4 19 (10) 11
1.2 NM 6 6 10 69 21 11
NM 1.2 8 15 13 (2) 30 13
0.5 1.3 (251) 37 18 36 37 15
NM 1.6 19 41 20 124 (189) 32
3.4 1.7 ICT 66 45 25 136 15 38
2.9 2.3 15 35 29 21 52 41
NM 3.4 57 143 29 53 38 43
3.5 3.8 (20) 25 29 103 (1) 51
2.0 4.3 22 7 30 2 21 52
6.8 5.2 57 (73) 32 ICT 115 21 57
2.7 5.4 90 18 45 26 50 60
ICT 5.8 5.6 32 68 58 22 (57) 61
4.3 6.4 1 58 64 27 32 65
3.0 8.2 GS (935) 51 69 (5) 89 74
9.1 9.0 56 80 76 5 12 77
6.7 13.5 44 77 79 117 426 110
50.2 16.3 40 (270) 200 KCC (51) 45 143
15.9 41.7 (148) 225 242 85 67 191
43.5 56.3 (245) 427 283 (505) 264 382
126.5 314.5 793 959 719 252 528 660
: Fnguide,
. IT , . . . . 30~40 2015 49 . 7.3 . 10 1% 1 8% . . . . . ‘ ’ “ ” . . “ ” . , PF , . [ 52]
“ ” “ ”
“ ”
:
[ 53] [ 54] breakdown
: 114` : 114
( )
) …
. , . ‘ ’ . 1997 . GDP 2008 GDP 2001 6.7% 2011 5.7% , 10% . 2 . , , top 3, 10% BEP .
[ 55] [ 56] /
: :
GDP 2004 6.6% 2012 4.8% . . 2004 2012 . 2004 50 2012 48 . 2013 1 . .
[ 57] , GDP [ 58] (+)
: , , , ,
, /:
:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP ()
GDP ()
(%) (%)
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
74,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H15
()
Case study) :
. 1941 1960 , 1970 , 1980~ 1990 , 2000 . , . 2014 . . . contents mix , . . 1) Leasing: cash cow . 2) Management: / . 3) : pool . leasing, management management 7.2% .
[ 59] – Life cycle ,
: ,
///// life cycle . 43 224 /. 3.6 267 pipeline . 3 . 3.2% . Mitsui Shipping park, Outlet park . JTSB, LTV 40~50% . 30~40% ( ) 4~6% . 2017 9.6% .
Value Chain
Mitsui Home ()
Mitsui Fudosan Facilities Mgt.
Nippon Building Fund Mgt.
Pipelines (267 , 3.6)
1 991 (74)
)
45
. . . . . . .
[ 60] 1999 vs 2014 ( CAGR) [ 61]
: :
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5
1,405 1,338 1,446 1,515 1,529 1,447
120 126 148 173 186 151
8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.4% 12.2% 10.4%
96 103 123 145 163 126
6.8% 7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.7% 8.6%
2,738 2,768 3,157 3,223 3,145 3,006
1,042 1,100 1,233 1,325 1,932 1,327
263% 252% 256% 243% 163% 235%
1,716 1,706 2,093 2,040 1,976 1,906
45.4% 44.1% 47.7% 84.0% 38.9% 44.2%
() 16,288 16,666 16,377 16,585 16,799 16,543
:
330 359
1999 2014
(2015 )
2016 . , . . 2013 2015 PF 2016 . 2 . . . . ‘’ . . 1) M/S , 2) M&A , 3) . , , . [ 62] KOSPI
: 26 Kospi +
: Fnguide,
1) survivor
, 2 . . . . . . M/S , . 2008~2009 2012 . .
419%
258%
220%
174%
218%
228%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q15
14%
141%
143%
,
47
[ 63] [ 64] CAPEX
: , 114, :
2) M&A
M&A . . ‘ LNG’ ‘ 3’ 27.5 1,300 . . . [ 65] LNG ( 3 )
:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
CAPEX
()
3)
. . [ 66] . Leasing management . . . . . . . 1.2 1 2025 2.8 .
[ 66]
:
[ 67] [ 68]
: :
< 30> . cash flow . CJ 10 . key tenant . . 2020 1/2 .
Construction
Sales
Leasing
Construction Presale Lease Management Brokerage Product
Residential
Office
Retail
Hotel
Distribution
Residential
Office
Retail
Hotel
Distribution
49
. . . . < 31> 2016
12 HDC 70% ( , , )
1 7,350 ( 60%, 5)
3 LNG 1.2 ( 70%, 3)
3 2,500 ( )
4 HDC (2016 1 )
4 2,450 ( , / )
: ,
< 32> / (: )
~2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Sub total
1,2 84 84
11 11
IPC 4 4
72 72
64 64
13 13
123 123
194 194
49 49
:
[ 69] HDC [ 70] HDC
: :
< 33> (: )
Stake (%) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 2012 2013 2014 2015F
EP 48.3 Sales 234.5 257.9 233.3 243.5 212.8 220.8 220.0 864.9 958.7 969.2 900.0
OP 8.9 12.1 9.9 9.1 13.3 15.2 13.6 26.2 32.1 40.1 52.0
NP 6.9 8.8 7.1 2.8 9.5 11.4 9.5 18.3 20.8 25.6 35.0
87.9 Sales 20.2 19.4 16.7 13.6 19.3 21.3 15.8 83.2 79.0 69.9 69.0
OP (2.0) (2.5) (2.5) (1.3) (2.5) (2.6) (3.1) (10.7) (10.2) (8.4) (9.0)
NP (5.2) (9.1) (2.9) (1.1) (5.7) 8.0 (6.2) (21.3) (21.2) (18.3) (7.0)
100.0 Sales 31.8 31.0 32.2 34.9 30.7 29.4 30.6 124.9 140.0 129.9 130.0
OP 2.8 3.0 3.7 16.9 5.5 3.6 3.7 13.8 15.1 26.4 15.0
NP (0.9) (1.5) (0.4) 12.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 (9.8) (4.5) 9.5 1.8
56.6 Sales 44.9 47.8 44.4 50.6 43.9 53.7 56.4 171.0 198.7 187.7 200.0
NP 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.9 3.7 0.9 1.6 4.5
95.2 Sales 34.2 49.8 57.9 52.7 40.2 80.2 23.6 114.5 246.6 194.6 190.0
NP (1.0) 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.6 6.3 1.8 9.5 7.7 5.2 12.0
100.0 Sales 7.2 17.4 12.8 13.8 12.1 12.5 11.2 30.4 50.4 51.2 51.0
NP 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 (0.3) 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.0
Total Sales 372.8 423.3 397.3 409.2 359.0 417.9 357.6 1,388.9 1,673.4 1,602.6 1,540.0
NP 0.6 (0.6) 6.5 17.3 7.6 26.2 5.2 (0.4) 4.8 23.7 42.8
:
/ . 2013 / . . . cash flow , . ‘D’ key tenant . < 34> / breakdown (: )
Stake(%) 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
OP Total 486 40 (270) 267 401 512
Daelim Auto 59.0 16 24 22 20 25 26
Ora resort 100.0 11 14 15 12 15 18
Daelim C&S 69.7 22 32 33 45 45 30
P-Chem Parent 42 81 88 155 158 120
Non construction total 91 151 158 232 243 194
E&C Parent 427 195 66 244 179 280
DSA Parent (42) (341) (504) (200) (30) 24
Other 11 35 10 (9) 9 14
Construction total 395 (111) (428) 35 158 318
Equity method gain Stake(%) 79 68 71 170 103 113
YNCC 50.0 69 54 45 105 70 80
Poly Mirae 50.0 8 11 23 58 30 30
KRCC 40.0 2 3 4 7 3 3
: ,
,
,
12 30, big3 4 . STX, SPP, , , . 4 , . STX . [ 75]
:
2010
STX 2013
2010
2010
2009
2009
2011 ()
21 ( )
YS 2009
2010
2010
53
STX 5~7 930 . STX , SPP . , , SPP 3 . . . , (unit) . , () 3.4 . big3 . 2010 . 2009 . 2014 93% . Big3 2014 . .
[ 76] / [ 77]
: :
[ 78] - [ 79] - [ 80] -
: : :
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
65 64 58 58 57
49 50 50 46 44 44 44
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
() ()
() ()
() ()
B.D 3, F.D 4 7,900
B.D 2, F.D 1, B.B 1 2,833
() B.D 3, B.B 2 1,883
B.D 4 2,260
B.B 3, F.D 1 720
B.D 1, F.D1 , B.B 2 673
F.D 2, B.B 6 1,433
Strategic Insight
,
. 2000 . 2010 3 . 2,700 50 ‘’ . . 80~95% . . , . . . R&D ‘ ’
. 20 50 . (6,000TEU ) . / . , . 2016 key . 1.3, 3.7 5 . 2019 1 600 . 2015 600 . 2019 3.5 . 1) capacity 30% LNG , 2) big3 big2 . 2) .
,
: 5
1960 40 1 . 1970 . 1970 2 . 61 26, 138 46, 960 CGT 460CGT . , IHI, , , . , . LNG///RORO/ . . . 1970 1976 14 5 . IHI Universal shipbuilding ‘Japan Marine United Group(JMU)’ , 4 2013 LNG JV ‘MI LNG’ . 5 . . , . . [ 81] 5 /
:
JMU (Japan Marine United)
Hitachi Zosen
Koyo Dockyard (2014)
Watanabe Zosen (2005)
Hashihama Dockyard (2001)
, 2
, 1
. . 1 . . . , , JV . . . 150 . . 1 . . customizing big3, . 2015, FLNG ‘Browse’ FLNG ‘Coral’ FLNG 2009 Shell FLNG ‘Prelude’ . ‘Only one’ . < 36>
Dock Dock Yard DWT
Maximum(m) (m)
Imabari Shipbuilding 9 420 89 310,309
Japan Marine United 6 620 89 484,276
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 400 100 719,606
Shanghai Waigaoqiao 2 480 106 320,926
Hudong Zhonghua 1 360 92 160,000
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 3 543 147 49,281
: , , Clarksons
. , . . , 1 .
,
: Clarkson
:
( TEU)
, , , ,
.
.
.
, .
: 10 10 . . , 2016 4, 2017 12 . 1) 2) . : , 1 (slowdown), (recession), (depression) . . . . 1 , . . , , , , . POSCO, 1 , . , . , , M/S . . (Only one) .
II. : .................... 15
III. : ............................... 19
IV. : ......................... 31
V. /: , ..... 37
2. : vs.
3. : 1 ,
II. : ...................................................................... 15
III. : ................................................................................ 19
1. ,
2.
3.
4. ! ?
IV. : ........................................................................... 31
1.
2.
3.
4.
V. /: , ................................................. 37
1. :
2. : 1
Contents
I. :
1. :
10 1. 1990 , . ( ) 4% 2000 15% . 1989 1990 , 2000 . , . [ 1] : 10
: Caballero(2008)
[ 2] ( ) [ 3] ( )
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
1 Caballero et al., “Zombie lending and depressed restructuring in Japan,” American Economic Review, Vol.98, No.5, 2008.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1
(JPY trn)
3
1999 ‘’ , ‘’ . 2003 4, 2007 8, 2009 4 . 2003 ‘ ’ , 2007 ‘’ ‘’ , 2009 , . , , . 3 . < 1>
(M&A), ,
,
/ or CO2
,
:
- 5%
-
( ) - / 10
-
- , 5%
- 5%
( )
-
-
- , ,
: ,
, , , . 52 125%, / 2.8 . ‘’ M&A . 6 , . 2 , ROE 10% .
Strategic Insight
4
‘ ’ , . 2014 2 ‘- ’ . , , GE 3 . 2000 ‘- ’ , . M&A . 2014 PC . VJ , VJ . . PC () , PC ROE . < 3>
2009 2010 2012 2014
1
2 & &
3
4
5 POSCO & POSCO POSCO
6 & POSCO
7 JFE
8 JFE
9 JFE JFE
10
:
: Bloomberg,
[ 4] [ 5] ROE
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
()
-
Sony Corp
- (25%~30%)
-
- ,
-
-
- ,
- 1
:
25( 14 ), 24
2. 234 213
VC 3
3. 1
4. 120,237
55 , 138. 268
5. 15
: 2014
: ,
[ 6] [ 7]
: , : ,
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
()
6
10 . 10 , . Caballero(2008) , , , . , . (TFP) . . ‘ ()’ ‘ 5(, , , , )’ 6 9 . – - .
[ 8] [ 9]
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
[ 10] vs. : [ 11] (TFP) : vs.
: Caballero(2008) : Caballero(2008)
7
. . 1997 . . 1) 2008 (32.8%) (76.5%) , 2) , 1990 . 3 1 () 2009 12.8% 2014 15.2% 73% . , , , , . . , , ‘()’, .
< 6>
/
2009(A,%) 6.1 13.3 5.9 5.2 8.3 9.8 8.7 8.5 11.9 11.5 8.3 29.7 32
2014(B,%) 18.2 22.2 12.8 8.9 11.9 13.4 11.8 10.7 13.9 13.2 9.8 26.7 27.1
A-B(%P) 12.1 8.9 6.9 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.1 2.2 2 1.7 1.5 -3 -4.9
:
[ 12] vs. : [ 13] : vs.
: : Caballero(2008)
()
()
8
KDI() , 2. 1) 1.2 1.3 2.5 , 2) . 3 70% 33% .
[ 14] [ 15]
:
: 2015 6
: (/)
: 2015 6
[ 16] : vs. [ 17] : vs.
: 3 15%
: 2015 6
: 3 20%
: 2015 6
2 , “ ”, 2015 11 12 . 1
3 .
Strategic Insight
2. : vs.
(slowdown), (recession), (depression) . , . . 12 . (High Yield) CCC 2013 9.22% 3 2014 11.24% 2015 18.17% . , 2000 2008 (default rate) . . . [ 18] BofA
: FRED
: 2015 2016
97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15
CCC or below B BB(%)
5.1%
12.9%
16.4%
5.0%
1.5%
3.1%
3.3%
4.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F
10
BBB- // . // 30% . 3 2015 /, , / . 2015 . ‘ (yield hunting)’ . Fitch // 2016 1.5% () 2.1% 3 .
[ 20] ETF [ 21]
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
[ 22] : // [ 23] : ///
: Bloomberg, : Bloomberg,
3 Fitch: 2016 US HY Default Rate Forecast at 4.5%, Energy at 11%
https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fitch-home/pressrelease?id=996322
, 16.2
, 6.1
, 8.9
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
(2010.1.1=100)
:
:
:
: /
:
:
11
2016 . . < 7> . . < 7> 2016
4.5%
15-11-27 7 2016 20%
12 1.5
15-11-20 10 50
10%
: ,
2016 . , . 12 9 2016 ‘ ’ . 1) 3 , , 2) , . 2017 . 12 2016 , 1 (NDRC) , , . . [ 24]
: ,
15.10.12 15.11.4 15.11.10 15.12.14 15.12.21 16.1.12
() : ‘ ’
: ‘’
11 :
: M&A,
:
: ,
12
. 12 17 5 7.3% 3.6% . .
[ 25] 5 10 [ 26]
: Bloomberg, : Wind,
2012 . . . . [ 27] 2013~14 3~15% 15 . [ 27]
:
: Wind,
3.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
(% YoY)
(15)
(10)
(5)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
(% YoY)
13
, . < 8> 8 . , , , . 10 1.59% 2009 .
[ 28] [ 29] NPL
: CEIC, : CEIC,
< 8>
( )
2014 10 ,
2015-04 12
2015-04 11
)
2015-05 1201 2015 10
2015-09 12MTN
2015-10 10 Call option
2015-10 10MTN
2015-11 15SCP CP
: ,
()
()
(%) ()
3. : 1 ,
. 2016 . (, ) M&A . . , . SDI . , . . 1 . . . . , . POSCO, 1 , . , . , , M/S . . (Only one) .
1
:
,
II. :
10 , , , , . , ( ) . 5 , . 2016 4 2 ( 1 8 ) 2015 1, 4,142 . , . 2016 . , . 12 30 ‘ ’ 12 / . 400% , (2015 9 747%, 786%) . < 9> -
- 2015 10 29
- 2 3, 3 1.2 1
- 2016 4.2 4.2
- 1.6
- (RG) , ,
- RG
- 2015 12 30 ,
12
- ( 400% )
: ,
16
RG() ( , ) RG . 88% , 12% . . < 10> (: )
1,624 0 7,316 3,873 12,812
2,117 44 1,060 2,465 5,686
71 0 1,169 36 1,603
268 0 579 17 864
442 0 112 73 627
427 5 0 75 508
263 0 60 53 377
47 0 269 5 321
83 0 0 17 100
6 30 0 0 37
20 0 0 1 21
0 20 0 0 20
16 0 0 0 18
16 0 0 1 16
12 0 0 0 12
6 0 0 0 6
3 0 0 1 4
0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0
3,895 44 9,546 6,390 20,201
1,452 5 1,020 224 2,702
22 50 0 0 74
54 0 0 2 56
: 2015 12 29
: ,
RG , , . .
,
-
- : 2015 10 29 (4.2 )
- STX, :
- :
- :
- , 400%
-
-
- , , , ,
- TPA 30%
- , , , , ,
- 40%
-
-
: 2015 12 30
: ,
. . . , .
< 12>
, 1.5 3.25
( 0.5 0.75 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.5
2 )
+ PEF 300%
=> GP (50~70%) 8.4~14
,
-/LP , ,
15 10 22
11 , PEF
16 3
16 11 PEF
: ,
18
, . . (2018 36.2% 32% ). , . A . 2015 A . < 13>
- , /
- (18 20
, 33 )
- ,
( )
)
: ,
2016 , . . . . , . 6 12 .
1. ,
. 2015 , . 19 , 35 2015 54 . 12 30 500 368 . C 11, D 8 19 , 3, ·· 2, ···· 1, 5. 19 12.5, 1.5 .
< 14>
2015 2014 2013 2012
( 12.25,
( 3.7,
1.5 1 N/A 6,803 1.1
: 15 ,
: ,
2015 2014 2013 2012
'
'
'
'
175 125 112 97
(C 70, D 105) (C 54, D 71) (C 54, D 58) (C 45, D 52)
2 2,204 1 4,069 1 5,499 1 2,735
20
() ‘ ’ . , 1.5 . . , . 11 4,500. () 1/3 1,200 . . 1.5 1/3 . , . ‘ ’ () 19 . . . , , STX . · 6 . STX 4,530 , . , 2,000 . 2015 , . 2.
FY15 4 . 3 . () ( 6. , KB, , BNK, DGB, ) 3 4 , 4 3 63%, 6,130 1.5 . 4 () STX , . STX . , KEB, . 11 100% 2,500 . KEB, 500 .
FY2014 FY2015
271 191 352 288 207 312 51%
KB 324 291 194 265 166 294 77%
282 247 271 367 135 322 139%
214 550 299 392 235 371 58%
BNK 51 113 88 142 66 127 94%
DGB 47 37 41 52 65 60 -6%
1,189 1,430 1,245 1,506 872 1,486 70%
: 4Q15 , QoQ 3Q15 4Q15
: Quantiwise, ,
< 17> STX (: )
6,834 3,647 0 0 3,187 0
3,736 2,106 0 0 1,630 0
1,536 835 0 0 701 0
1,562 707 0 0 855 0
468 22 0 0 92 355
131 112 0 0 19 0
131 112 0 0 19 0
124 109 0 0 15 0
KEB 124 109 0 0 15 0
BNK 30 30 0 0 0 0
30 30 0 0 0 0
72 6 0 0 66 0
7,659 3,926 0 0 3,379 355
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
,
: KISLINE,
823 477 0 0 346 0
502 367 0 0 135 0
164 111 0 0 53 0
158 0 0 0 158 0
26 26 0 0 0 0
26 26 0 0 0 0
KB 108 100 0 0 8 0
108 100 0 0 8 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
165 99 0 0 66 0
KEB 165 99 0 0 66 0
164 158 0 0 5 0
BNK 40 40 0 0 0 0
40 40 0 0 0 0
85 10 0 0 75 0
1,411 911 0 0 501 0
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
, , 3) 15 12 30
: KISLINE,
22
< 19> ( ) (: )
160 152 0 0 8 0
107 100 0 0 7 0
33 32 0 0 0 0
17 16 0 0 1 0
4 4 0 0 0 0
KB 52 50 0 0 2 0
52 50 0 0 2 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
55 53 0 0 1 0
KEB 54 53 0 0 1 0
0 0 0 0 0 0
20 19 0 0 1 0
BNK 4 4 0 0 0 0
4 4 0 0 0 0
30 27 0 0 3 0
314 285 0 0 30 0
: 1) ‘’ RG(), , , 2)
,
: KISLINE,
3.
1) 2,500, ···
. , · . 2014 2015 ( ‘’) , . , , . 2015 () 22,597 SOC 20,843 . ‘3 1 , 40% ’ . 2012~14 ‘/’ . 2,502 136, 88 . ‘ ’ 44, 16, 16, 1 9 . 2009 ‘, , , ’ . 431, 240, 159, 137 , .
2,502,
136,
88
NA SOC ,
: 1) , 2) 22,597 , 3) 14 , 4)
:
< 21> ( ) (: , )
240 16,172,004 10,931,298
431 15,609,466 13,934,285
55 4,534,082 3,414,909
, , , 128 4,455,861 3,603,737
2 4,417,610 2,748,289
; 57 3,375,515 2,551,947
159 3,212,043 2,390,569
110 3,084,608 2,398,818
137 2,529,796 2,152,224
89 2,263,496 2,058,016
43 2,178,185 1,961,894
; 80 1,886,585 1,464,417
42 1,809,516 1,497,536
; 51 1,641,109 1,476,119
46 1,481,672 1,219,287
, , 25 1,313,558 1,303,283
51 1,220,627 1,062,998
36 1,193,035 1,120,846
598 10,392,300 9,259,644
2,502 135,859,789 87,634,398
: (KSIC) ( 65), 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
24
< 22> ( ) (: , )
431 15,609,466 13,934,285
159 3,212,043 2,390,569
137 2,529,796 2,152,224
, , , 128 4,455,861 3,603,737
110 3,084,608 2,398,818
89 2,263,496 2,058,016
1 83 9,066,286 7,135,643
; 80 1,886,585 1,464,417
57 922,054 885,484
55 4,534,082 3,414,909
; 51 1,641,109 1,476,119
51 1,220,627 1,062,998
46 1,481,672 1,219,287
43 2,178,185 1,961,894
42 1,809,516 1,497,536
40 527,876 482,380
39 44,022,435 13,948,639
36 1,193,035 1,120,846
528 14,673,538 11,943,352
2,502 135,859,789 87,634,398
: (KSIC) ( 65), 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
2) 136, 88
136 , 105 77% . 11, · 8 . 105 64, 34, 5 . 29 . 21 , 12 , 9 KEB , 6 , 5 . [ 30] ( )
: 15 8 ( STX 10 21)
: KISLINE,
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
29,006,332 19,507,979
8,636,044 5,387,974
4,607,774 4,215,217
611,671 553,792
21,415,800 6,137,405
: KISLINE,
, ( ‘’) ? · . , ? 2015 6 ( + + ) 22. 88 65 33% . 33% . 12 . ‘ ’ 5 B 56% . 64%, 33%. ‘ ’ 33% . .
105, 65
?
24
26
< 24> (: , %)
1,063,150 21,660 2.04%
574,052 11,166 1.95%
485,638 9,701 2.00%
105,679 2,221 2.10%
109,718 1,417 1.29%
118,897 3,147 2.65%
69,180 1,348 1.95%
SC 12,991 294 2.26%
10,826 115 1.06%
58,347 1,159 1.99%
88,414 1,464 1.66%
19,390 366 1.89%
9,433 169 1.79%
23,014 372 1.61%
27,653 390 1.41%
6,962 133 1.91%
1,961 35 1.78%
489,098 10,494 2.15%
95,533 2,446 2.56%
16,810 374 2.23%
140,791 2,159 1.53%
120,761 3,117 2.58%
115,204 2,398 2.08%
: 15 6
: ,
[ 31] ( ) [ 32] ( )
: 1) 3 (2012~14) (/) 200% ( ) , 2) 5 (15 6)
: ,
3)
. [ 33] . 1 14 . (042660, ) 24 . 7.5 STX, (4.7), (003490, /TP 45,000, 4.4), (001230, Not rated, 3.8), SPP(2.9), (016380, Not rated, 2.2), (009830, Not rated, 1.7), (1.7 ), (097230, Not rated, 1.5) . . 4 , , . , STX, , SPP, . 63% . RG . , RG ‘ ’ . ‘’ ‘ ’ . [ 33]
: KISLINE, Quantiwise,
23.5
7.5
4.7 4.4 3.8 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
4. ! ?
. ··· . . ? () . PBR . PBR . ‘ ’ ‘’ . trailing PBR 0.50 0.52 . ( ‘’) PBR , , BNK, , DGB , KB, . PBR 0.40 . PBR . PBR , ( , ) 1.0 . trailing PBR 0.50 0.69 . ( ‘ ’) , BNK, , DGB, , KB . , PBR 1 . 1 () , BNK . 0.52 . KB . [ 34] () trailing PBR PBR
: 1) 1 8 , 2) PBR
: Quantiwise, , KISLINE,
0.80
trailing PBR
PBR
PBR
29
< 25> , , PBR (: , )
KB BNK DGB KIS
('15.9 ) [A] 26,567 26,447 19,992 13,846 5,640 3,274 95,767
('15.9 ) [BDR] 2,106 2,458 2,214 2,159 425 214 9,576
('15.9 ) [RWA] 207,967 185,605 192,702 159,340 65,752 31,239 842,605
('16.1.7) [Mkt] 18,352 12,402 6,764 5,773 2,702 1,658 47,651
PBR [MKt/A] 0.69 0.47 0.34 0.42 0.48 0.51 0.50
[B=C+D] 4,253 5,765 5,340 6,508 2,016 729 24,611
[C] 2,048 2,965 2,527 2,805 1,184 371 11,900
[D] 2,205 2,800 2,812 3,703 832 358 12,710
[E] 4,187 5,275 4,667 4,294 1,093 563 20,079
( ) [E/B x 100%] 98% 91% 87% 66% 54% 77% 82%
[F=B-E+BDR] 2,171 2,948 2,886 4,373 1,348 380 4,531
[G=F/A] 8.2% 11.1% 14.4% 31.6% 23.9% 11.6% 4.7%
[F/RWA] 1.0% 1.6% 1.5% 2.7% 2.1% 1.2% 0.5%
- [H=A-F] 24,395 23,498 17,106 9,473 4,292 2,894 91,236
PBR [Mkt / H] 0.75 0.53 0.40 0.61 0.63 0.57 0.52
() [I] 5,796 5,665 9,359 11,272 3,860 847 36,799
[J=I-E+BDR] 3,715 2,848 6,906 9,137 3,192 499 26,296
[K=J/A] 14.0% 10.8% 34.5% 66.0% 56.6% 15.2% 27.5%
[F/RWA] 1.8% 1.5% 3.6% 5.7% 4.9% 1.6% 3.1%
- [L=A-J] 22,852 23,599 13,087 4,710 2,448 2,776 69,471
PBR [Mkt / L] 0.80 0.53 0.52 1.23 1.10 0.60 0.69
: BNK 4,830( 7,000) , ,
: Quantiwise,
< 26> 20 (: )
KEB
1
IV. :
‘’ . . . ‘’ . . . 2016 . ‘ ’ . 1.
2012 2015 , , , 1,079 . , 1,675 . 596 . 2012 8,036 8,635 7.5% . . POSCO 82 . . < 27> (: )
251 300 220 650 1,421
2,500 2,500
46 264 1,570 40 1,920
56 61 29 62 208
72 6 4 82
1,793 882 5,555 2,556 10,786
: ,
2016,
32
. . POSCO 2013 7.3% 5.6% 2014 2015 . 2013 . . [ 35] POSCO
:
POSCO
2.
. 2015 2 4,100 . 2015 11 5,800 69.2% 70% . 2.8 . [ 36]
: 90%
:
2011 2015 ‘12.5’ . Top10 48.6% 60% . 2011 . 2011 1 498 282 2015 10 310 203 . , . . . 2011 1 18% 15% 2015 10 38% 34% . ’12.5’ .
[ 37] [ 38]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
26 2 58 82 77 96 93 147 195 200 241
83.9 89.6
74.7 72.4 72.4 69.2
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
(%) ()
()
()
11.01 11.07 12.01 12.07 13.01 13.07 14.01 14.07 15.01 15.07
()
(%)
3.
2016 ’13.5’ . 2015 . ’13.5’ 3 . 12 ’12.5’ . . . . . . (), () () 7.9 ( 1,413), 5.8 (1,038), 1.5 (268) . 2012 4. . 4.
. . . . . 12 () 58.5% . . . [ 39] , , ,
: 2015 1~10
: CEIC,
57 48
210
261
353
207
310
270
93
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
(RMB bn)
35
2015 10 (, , , ) 930 800 . . 11 11 . 2012 1,000 . . . . ‘’ . ‘’ . . 6%, BEP . . .
[ 40] [ 41]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
[ 42] [ 43]
: CEIC, : CEIC,
0.7
(2.9)(4)
(2)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
(%)
(%)
(%)
(%)
36
2011 . , .
12 30, ‘2015 ( 500 368) ’ C() 11, D() 8 , 19 . 3. 35 54 . 2010 50 . 14 (11), (8), (4) . 2015 . 14 . 5 , . 2013 , ‘’ . , . . , . . , . . 1) M&A (), 2) survivor (), 3) () . 2 . . 2016 key . 3 , , big2 . 1 , ‘Only one’ . 2016 big3 . . . . . catalyst . .
,
38
[ 44] [ 45]
: :
[ 46] PER Band [ 47] PBR Band
: Fnguide : Fnguide
[ 48] PER Band [ 49] PBR Band
: Fnguide : Fnguide
2,819 2,899 2,979 3,058
()
8x 12x
()
0.6x
1x
1.4x
1.8x
2.2x
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
()
10x
15x
20x
25x
30x
(250,000)
(200,000)
(150,000)
(100,000)
(50,000)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
()
0.4x
()
Strategic Insight
. (PEF) . 1.5 3.3 PEF . PEF . . . , . , , / . . . 2013~2014 500 ‘’ 36 . 10, ‘ ’ / / . 4 / 2016 1 . . . 1) 5% , , , 2) , 3) , . / / . , . // , 2015 4 . . [ 50] -
) 1,000
(200)
:
‘ ’,
,
Strategic Insight
40
// , . 11 26 , . . [ 51]
:
. 3 (5.4), GS(3.2), (2.4) . 2014 2.4 3 1.5 6,380 , 1.7 . 1.3 . Heavy tail . .
< 28> (: , %p)
4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3Q15 4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 3Q15
Samsung Eng 2,083 2,131 2,321 1,678 (643) 18.2% 21.7% 26.0% 24.8% -1.2%p
Daewoo E&C 1,303 1,533 1,636 1,558 (78) 15.9% 18.1% 16.6% 15.7% -0.9%p
Daelim Ind 1,370 1,357 1,354 1,346 (8) 16.4% 17.1% 18.7% 17.8% -0.9%p
HyundaiE&C(parents) 2,053 3,084 3,111 3,109 (2) 19.7% 29.1% 28.9% 30.5% 1.6%p
Samsung C&T 1,178 1,476 2,147 2,353 206 13.2% 11.0% 14.4% 19.8% 5.4%p
Hyundai eng 652 755 1,592 1,837 245 28.7% 28.8% 28.0% 25.5% -2.5%p
GS E&C 2,102 1,953 2,382 3,174 792 22.6% 20.4% 25.1% 30.6% 5.5%p
Total 10,741 12,289 14,542 15,055 513 18.2% 19.9% 22.1% 23.8% 1.8%p
: ,
,
41
1) 3 , 2) 2 1 , 3) 2 (-) . , . 2013~2014 . big3 , STX, SPP, , . .
< 29> // (: )
2014 3Q15 YTD OP 2013 2014 3Q15 YTD OCF 2013 2014 3Q15 YTD
1.0 0.2 (134) (156) (37) (502) (5) (59)
0.4 0.3 (23) (40) (25) 2 (4) (6)
GS 0.4 0.8 (1,028) 162 (1,476) (1,231) 256 (911)
NM NM (50) (104) 23 GS (1,154) 572 (455)
KCC 0.1 NM KCC (52) 1 (19) 35 32 (144)
NM NM 6 2 (12) 65 4 (127)
0.1 1.0 59 40 (9) 104 164 (52)
5.3 NM (3) 22 (5) 49 33 (7)
1.2 NM 46 16 (2) 13 2 (5)
1.4 NM 5 4 2 (1) 1 7
1.8 NM 4 3 4 19 (10) 11
1.2 NM 6 6 10 69 21 11
NM 1.2 8 15 13 (2) 30 13
0.5 1.3 (251) 37 18 36 37 15
NM 1.6 19 41 20 124 (189) 32
3.4 1.7 ICT 66 45 25 136 15 38
2.9 2.3 15 35 29 21 52 41
NM 3.4 57 143 29 53 38 43
3.5 3.8 (20) 25 29 103 (1) 51
2.0 4.3 22 7 30 2 21 52
6.8 5.2 57 (73) 32 ICT 115 21 57
2.7 5.4 90 18 45 26 50 60
ICT 5.8 5.6 32 68 58 22 (57) 61
4.3 6.4 1 58 64 27 32 65
3.0 8.2 GS (935) 51 69 (5) 89 74
9.1 9.0 56 80 76 5 12 77
6.7 13.5 44 77 79 117 426 110
50.2 16.3 40 (270) 200 KCC (51) 45 143
15.9 41.7 (148) 225 242 85 67 191
43.5 56.3 (245) 427 283 (505) 264 382
126.5 314.5 793 959 719 252 528 660
: Fnguide,
. IT , . . . . 30~40 2015 49 . 7.3 . 10 1% 1 8% . . . . . ‘ ’ “ ” . . “ ” . , PF , . [ 52]
“ ” “ ”
“ ”
:
[ 53] [ 54] breakdown
: 114` : 114
( )
) …
. , . ‘ ’ . 1997 . GDP 2008 GDP 2001 6.7% 2011 5.7% , 10% . 2 . , , top 3, 10% BEP .
[ 55] [ 56] /
: :
GDP 2004 6.6% 2012 4.8% . . 2004 2012 . 2004 50 2012 48 . 2013 1 . .
[ 57] , GDP [ 58] (+)
: , , , ,
, /:
:
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
GDP ()
GDP ()
(%) (%)
54,000
56,000
58,000
60,000
62,000
64,000
66,000
68,000
70,000
72,000
74,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1H15
()
Case study) :
. 1941 1960 , 1970 , 1980~ 1990 , 2000 . , . 2014 . . . contents mix , . . 1) Leasing: cash cow . 2) Management: / . 3) : pool . leasing, management management 7.2% .
[ 59] – Life cycle ,
: ,
///// life cycle . 43 224 /. 3.6 267 pipeline . 3 . 3.2% . Mitsui Shipping park, Outlet park . JTSB, LTV 40~50% . 30~40% ( ) 4~6% . 2017 9.6% .
Value Chain
Mitsui Home ()
Mitsui Fudosan Facilities Mgt.
Nippon Building Fund Mgt.
Pipelines (267 , 3.6)
1 991 (74)
)
45
. . . . . . .
[ 60] 1999 vs 2014 ( CAGR) [ 61]
: :
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 5
1,405 1,338 1,446 1,515 1,529 1,447
120 126 148 173 186 151
8.5% 9.4% 10.3% 11.4% 12.2% 10.4%
96 103 123 145 163 126
6.8% 7.7% 8.5% 9.5% 10.7% 8.6%
2,738 2,768 3,157 3,223 3,145 3,006
1,042 1,100 1,233 1,325 1,932 1,327
263% 252% 256% 243% 163% 235%
1,716 1,706 2,093 2,040 1,976 1,906
45.4% 44.1% 47.7% 84.0% 38.9% 44.2%
() 16,288 16,666 16,377 16,585 16,799 16,543
:
330 359
1999 2014
(2015 )
2016 . , . . 2013 2015 PF 2016 . 2 . . . . ‘’ . . 1) M/S , 2) M&A , 3) . , , . [ 62] KOSPI
: 26 Kospi +
: Fnguide,
1) survivor
, 2 . . . . . . M/S , . 2008~2009 2012 . .
419%
258%
220%
174%
218%
228%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
450%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 3Q15
14%
141%
143%
,
47
[ 63] [ 64] CAPEX
: , 114, :
2) M&A
M&A . . ‘ LNG’ ‘ 3’ 27.5 1,300 . . . [ 65] LNG ( 3 )
:
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F
CAPEX
()
3)
. . [ 66] . Leasing management . . . . . . . 1.2 1 2025 2.8 .
[ 66]
:
[ 67] [ 68]
: :
< 30> . cash flow . CJ 10 . key tenant . . 2020 1/2 .
Construction
Sales
Leasing
Construction Presale Lease Management Brokerage Product
Residential
Office
Retail
Hotel
Distribution
Residential
Office
Retail
Hotel
Distribution
49
. . . . < 31> 2016
12 HDC 70% ( , , )
1 7,350 ( 60%, 5)
3 LNG 1.2 ( 70%, 3)
3 2,500 ( )
4 HDC (2016 1 )
4 2,450 ( , / )
: ,
< 32> / (: )
~2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Sub total
1,2 84 84
11 11
IPC 4 4
72 72
64 64
13 13
123 123
194 194
49 49
:
[ 69] HDC [ 70] HDC
: :
< 33> (: )
Stake (%) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 2012 2013 2014 2015F
EP 48.3 Sales 234.5 257.9 233.3 243.5 212.8 220.8 220.0 864.9 958.7 969.2 900.0
OP 8.9 12.1 9.9 9.1 13.3 15.2 13.6 26.2 32.1 40.1 52.0
NP 6.9 8.8 7.1 2.8 9.5 11.4 9.5 18.3 20.8 25.6 35.0
87.9 Sales 20.2 19.4 16.7 13.6 19.3 21.3 15.8 83.2 79.0 69.9 69.0
OP (2.0) (2.5) (2.5) (1.3) (2.5) (2.6) (3.1) (10.7) (10.2) (8.4) (9.0)
NP (5.2) (9.1) (2.9) (1.1) (5.7) 8.0 (6.2) (21.3) (21.2) (18.3) (7.0)
100.0 Sales 31.8 31.0 32.2 34.9 30.7 29.4 30.6 124.9 140.0 129.9 130.0
OP 2.8 3.0 3.7 16.9 5.5 3.6 3.7 13.8 15.1 26.4 15.0
NP (0.9) (1.5) (0.4) 12.3 1.2 0.1 0.4 (9.8) (4.5) 9.5 1.8
56.6 Sales 44.9 47.8 44.4 50.6 43.9 53.7 56.4 171.0 198.7 187.7 200.0
NP 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.2 1.3 1.9 3.7 0.9 1.6 4.5
95.2 Sales 34.2 49.8 57.9 52.7 40.2 80.2 23.6 114.5 246.6 194.6 190.0
NP (1.0) 1.1 2.3 2.8 2.6 6.3 1.8 9.5 7.7 5.2 12.0
100.0 Sales 7.2 17.4 12.8 13.8 12.1 12.5 11.2 30.4 50.4 51.2 51.0
NP 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.4 (0.3) 2.9 1.9 1.7 1.0
Total Sales 372.8 423.3 397.3 409.2 359.0 417.9 357.6 1,388.9 1,673.4 1,602.6 1,540.0
NP 0.6 (0.6) 6.5 17.3 7.6 26.2 5.2 (0.4) 4.8 23.7 42.8
:
/ . 2013 / . . . cash flow , . ‘D’ key tenant . < 34> / breakdown (: )
Stake(%) 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F
OP Total 486 40 (270) 267 401 512
Daelim Auto 59.0 16 24 22 20 25 26
Ora resort 100.0 11 14 15 12 15 18
Daelim C&S 69.7 22 32 33 45 45 30
P-Chem Parent 42 81 88 155 158 120
Non construction total 91 151 158 232 243 194
E&C Parent 427 195 66 244 179 280
DSA Parent (42) (341) (504) (200) (30) 24
Other 11 35 10 (9) 9 14
Construction total 395 (111) (428) 35 158 318
Equity method gain Stake(%) 79 68 71 170 103 113
YNCC 50.0 69 54 45 105 70 80
Poly Mirae 50.0 8 11 23 58 30 30
KRCC 40.0 2 3 4 7 3 3
: ,
,
,
12 30, big3 4 . STX, SPP, , , . 4 , . STX . [ 75]
:
2010
STX 2013
2010
2010
2009
2009
2011 ()
21 ( )
YS 2009
2010
2010
53
STX 5~7 930 . STX , SPP . , , SPP 3 . . . , (unit) . , () 3.4 . big3 . 2010 . 2009 . 2014 93% . Big3 2014 . .
[ 76] / [ 77]
: :
[ 78] - [ 79] - [ 80] -
: : :
9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
65 64 58 58 57
49 50 50 46 44 44 44
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
() ()
() ()
() ()
B.D 3, F.D 4 7,900
B.D 2, F.D 1, B.B 1 2,833
() B.D 3, B.B 2 1,883
B.D 4 2,260
B.B 3, F.D 1 720
B.D 1, F.D1 , B.B 2 673
F.D 2, B.B 6 1,433
Strategic Insight
,
. 2000 . 2010 3 . 2,700 50 ‘’ . . 80~95% . . , . . . R&D ‘ ’
. 20 50 . (6,000TEU ) . / . , . 2016 key . 1.3, 3.7 5 . 2019 1 600 . 2015 600 . 2019 3.5 . 1) capacity 30% LNG , 2) big3 big2 . 2) .
,
: 5
1960 40 1 . 1970 . 1970 2 . 61 26, 138 46, 960 CGT 460CGT . , IHI, , , . , . LNG///RORO/ . . . 1970 1976 14 5 . IHI Universal shipbuilding ‘Japan Marine United Group(JMU)’ , 4 2013 LNG JV ‘MI LNG’ . 5 . . , . . [ 81] 5 /
:
JMU (Japan Marine United)
Hitachi Zosen
Koyo Dockyard (2014)
Watanabe Zosen (2005)
Hashihama Dockyard (2001)
, 2
, 1
. . 1 . . . , , JV . . . 150 . . 1 . . customizing big3, . 2015, FLNG ‘Browse’ FLNG ‘Coral’ FLNG 2009 Shell FLNG ‘Prelude’ . ‘Only one’ . < 36>
Dock Dock Yard DWT
Maximum(m) (m)
Imabari Shipbuilding 9 420 89 310,309
Japan Marine United 6 620 89 484,276
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries 2 400 100 719,606
Shanghai Waigaoqiao 2 480 106 320,926
Hudong Zhonghua 1 360 92 160,000
Yangzijiang Shipbuilding 3 543 147 49,281
: , , Clarksons
. , . . , 1 .
,
: Clarkson
:
( TEU)
, , , ,
.
.
.
, .