16 november8th portoroz business conference kazakhstan: the emerging “tiger” economy of central...
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16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Kazakhstan:The Emerging “Tiger”
Economy of Central Asia
R.W. Robertson, Ph.D.Director Graduate School of Business
Saint Leo University
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Agenda
Kazakhstan: Context
Economy of Kazakhstan – Current Status
National Economic Strategy for Kazakhstan
Issues for Resolution
Summary
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Kazakhstan - Center of The Silk Highway
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Kazakhstan: Fast Facts (2005)
Area: 2.7 million square hectares Population: 15 million Density: 6 people per hectare GDP: 124 billion USD GDP (per capita p p p): $8,149 USD GDP Growth: 10 % Currency: Tenge
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Population of Kazakhstan
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
16.5
17
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Year
Po
pu
lati
on
(in
mil
lio
ns)
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Year 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Population 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 14.9 15.1
Unemployment 13.5% 12.8% 10.4% 9.3% 8.8% 8.4% 8.0%
Gross National Income 1290 1270 1350 1520 1780 2090 2250(per Capita)
Real GDP Growth (%) 2.7 9.81 3.5 9.8 9.2 8.1 9.5
Oil Production 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.5(Millions of barrels/day)
Total External Debt 24.8 21.8 17.6 14.3 11.7 8.8 6.2 (Government % GDP)
Selected Economic Performance of Kazakhstan(1999-2005)
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
Years 1=1993
Kazakhstan GDP CIS (Mean)
Kazakhstan in Transition (1993-2005) % GDP Change Kazakhstan and all other Transition Countries
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Major Exports
15.80%
3.20% 2.40%
74%
Mineral Products MetalsChemicals Food Products
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Major Imports
43.80%
11.50%
13.40%
14.70%
Machinery/Equipment MetalsMineral Products Chemicals
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Leading Markets
10.50%
9.60%
15%
19.80%
Switzerland Italy Russia France
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Leading Suppliers
7.50%
7.20%6.90%
38%
Russia Germany China US
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Kazakhstan: Potential Oil Production 2000-2035(millions of barrels per day)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Off-shore
On-shore
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
28%
13%12%10%
8%
7%7%
12%
Oil and Gas Services Trade and Commerce
Transportation Public Service
Agriculture Manufacturing
Metal Manufacturing Other
Kazakhstan: Structure of Gross Domestic Product (2003)
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr
East
West
North
Kazakhstan: Structure of Gross Domestic Product (2003)
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
New Regulatory Environment
Government owned KazMmunaiGaz must be at least half owner in all new oil projects;
New rent tax was introduced on oil exports; and
Progressive tax introduced to ensure windfall from rising prices is split between the producer and the government.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
National Economic Strategy
Integrate into the World Economy (WTO Membership/Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe Chairmanship,
Modernize and diversify the economy for sustainable economic growth (Cluster Development Initiative),
Develop a modern social framework for all citizens.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
• Improve education as knowledge is vital for the new economy,
• Further develop the structure and institutions of democracy,
• Develop a national security strategy to meet the needs of the country and region,
• Implement a balanced and responsible foreign policy.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
National Economy Goals
GDP growth of 8.5% in each of the next three years;
By 2008, the GDP will be double the 2000 levels;
GDP per capita will rise by US $5,559 by 2008;
Inflation will be held to the 5-7% range during the three year period; and
The volume of energy resources will increase.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Issues for Resolution
Corruption,
Overheating of the economy,
Democratic advancements,
Education system quality improvements.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Opportunities
Skills Training,
Service Industries,
Tourism,
Borat- “Cultural learning of America for make benefit glorious nation of Kazakhstan.”
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Summary
Impressive GDP growth since the Russian crisis of 1998, driving substantial increases in average prosperity.
Increasing dominance of the oil and gas sector with considerable growth potential.
Pressure building from exchange rate appreciation. Overheating of domestic real estate prices. Significant government efforts to overcome challenges
of a resource-driven economy and diversify the economic base.
16 November 8th Portoroz Business Conference
Thank You!
Спасибо!