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BMP4 High Risk Area (HRA) reduction

08/10/2015

Executive Summary

• Revision of the Section 2 of the BMP HRA zone removes seven nations and territories • The new zone contains 87% of the 66 piracy incidents that occurred within the previous HRA

within the past twelve months • Somali-based pirates operating extended duration long-range operations cannot be “completely

discounted”

BMP4 HRA zone

The updated Section 2 of BMP4 (effective as of 01 December 2015) removes the following countries and territories from the previous zone:

• Comoros • British Indian Ocean Territory • Maldives • India • Pakistan • Iran • Mozambique • Removes all of the Gulf of Oman and the Laccadive Sea from coverage

The new HRA remains within the existing UKMTO designated Voluntary Reporting Area (VRA) – it is recommended that self-protective measures are “most likely to be required” within this area.

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The Internationally Recommended Transit Corridor (IRTC) Group Transit Scheme and national convoys remain unchanged currently.

The VRA and MSCHOA vessel registration area remains unchanged. All vessel movements should be registered with MSCHOA and daily positions reported to UKMTO even if the vessel does not enter the modified HRA. A vessel is only required to register one with MSCHOA.

The new HRA zone (inside) with the previous HRA zone (outer)  Piracy within the new HRA

Threat assessments provided by the Shared Awareness & Deconfliction (SHADE) indicate that the risk from Somali-based pirates operating extended duration long-range operations cannot be “completely discounted”. As a result vessels should be prepared to alter course at short notice due to PAG operations as and when directed by NAV WARNINGS and international naval forces.

The new zone contains 87% of the 66 piracy incidents that occurred within the previous HRA over the past 12 months, including all attacks, hijackings and 82% of PAG sightings. Based upon the trend since the beginning of 2014 there has been few incidents of attacks or PAG sightings south of the Kenyan border (last occurring on 09 November 2013). Similarly despite being a notable area for suspicious approaches the Gulf of Oman has only experienced two significant piracy incidents since the beginning of 2013 (one attack on 22 February 2013 and 28 February 2014). India also has only witnessed two PAG sightings since 2013 (30 January and 26 May 2015). As a result the size of the new HRA covers the overwhelming majority of incidents that have occurred in East Africa and the Indian Ocean.

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NYA MarTrack data from 08 October 2014 to 08 October 2015 with the new BMP4 HRA zone

Outlook

• Somali piracy, although diminished, remains capable of conducting extended duration operations with the intent to hijack vessels, as demonstrated by the hijacking of at least seven vessels since January 2014

• National convoys and the renewal of the EUNAVFOR mandate will be decisive in stability of the region in the medium to long term

• New BMP4 states that “increased state of readiness and vigilance may be required within the VRA in accordance to individual ship voyage risk assessments

• Ship security measures, risk assessments and vessel monitoring remains a core security protocol for all vessels transiting through the new HRA zone, with appropriate measures in place whilst transiting the VRA

• A revision of the Joint War Committee (JWC) and Joint Cargo Committee (JCC) HRA zones can be expected within the short to medium term

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Terms

Threat Level: Maritime Security and Stability Rating (MSSR) is updated each month and is designed to further understanding of the complex factors that affect stability and security in the maritime operating environment. The MSSR combines piracy risks with statistical ratings to analyse the threat of emerging permissive environments for maritime insecurity to flourish, the credibility and ability of regional countermeasures and the threat from non-traditional security threats (such as terrorism, government sponsored attacks, health security, maritime territorial disputes, refugee crises and narcotics, weapon and humans smuggling and trafficking). Pirate Incidents: Yellow (ATTACKED) – Vessel attacked by pirates. Green (BOARDING) – Vessels boarded but not hijacked. Blue (CRIMINAL BOARDING) – Vessel boarded with criminal intent. Red (HIJACKED) – vessel hijacked. Purple (SUSPICIOUS) – Suspicious activity reported. White (PAG) – Pirate Action Group (PAG) reported or likely operating area. Proprietary Information

This report is based on the information made available at the time of writing and the conditions then in existence. The submission of this document, which is issued without prejudice to liability, constitutes neither a warranty of results nor a surety against risks. About NYA

NYA International is a global risk and crisis management consultancy. Since 1990 years we have helped organisations to maximise opportunities and operate successfully in challenging environments around the world. Our maritime team provides strategic and operational advice to clients in the oil and gas, offshore, subsea, merchant marine, cruise and port facility industry sectors worldwide. Key areas of operation include the Gulf of Aden and Indian Ocean, Gulf of Guinea, Mediterranean, Persian Gulf, South China Sea, Straits of Malacca and Singapore (SOMS) and Latin America. NYA has the largest specialist crisis response team in the industry and experience of advising on around 80 global incidents each year. We have provided incident response for over 45 cases of Somali and West African piracy and advisory and risk management services to over 1,000 high-risk marine transits NYA is a trusted advisor to insurance underwriters and legal firms, providing accurate and objective assessment of the nature and level of maritime security risk, historic vessel track analysis and 'expert witness’ services. Contact us

For further information please contact the NYA team: NYA International Ltd. 26 Market Place London W1W 8AN United Kingdom t: +44 (0)207 291 7700 e: info@nyainternational.com w: www.nyainternational.com

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