150512 comfort delgro - maybank
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Figure 1: Geographical Segment Revenue and Operating Prof it- Overseas operatin g pro fit contri buti on now at 48.8% vs 41.3% in 1Q11
Source: Company
Figure 2: Revenue growth in all major business segments- Total revenue growth at 6.5% YoY
Source: Company
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Figure 3: Detailed breakdown of CDGs business segment revenue and profit.
Source: Company
Figure 4: ComfortDelGro historical P/E
Source: Bloomberg, Maybank KE
9.0
11.0
13.0
15.0
17.0
19.0
21.0
M a y
0 4
M a y
0 5
M a y
0 6
M a y
0 7
M a y
0 8
M a y
0 9
M a y
1 0
M a y
1 1
M a y
1 2
P/E (x)
= 13.5x
Mean = 15.0x
+ = 16.6x
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PROFIT AND LOSS (SGD m) BALA NCE SHEET (SGD m)
FYE Dec 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F FYE Dec 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014FSales 3,206.9 3,411.1 3,617.6 3,841.6 4,062.7 Total asset s 4,381.4 4,589.2 4,679.4 4,865.3 5,054.9Cost of goods sold 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current assets 1,000.5 979.4 901.7 1,036.7 1,193.0Gross pro fit 3,206.9 3,411.1 3,617.6 3,841.6 4,062.7 Cash 566.7 576.7 431.4 537.3 664.8Other income 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST investments 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Operating expenses -2,818.5 -3,011.9 -3,213.3 -3,419.6 -3,626.6 Trade & other receivables 369.3 346.2 397.9 422.6 446.9Operating prof it 388.4 399.2 410.3 428.0 442.1 Inventory 58.7 56.5 72.4 76.8 81.3Net interest income (exp) -28.5 -25.3 -27.0 -28.0 -29.0 Other assets 3,380.9 3,609.8 3,777.7 3,828.6 3,861.9Share of associates 6.4 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 LT investments 144.8 92.1 132.8 129.4 129.4Net exceptional 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net fixed assets 2,768.8 3,011.0 3,138.2 3,192.5 3,225.8Pretax income 366.3 379.2 388.5 405.2 418.4 Others 321.5 361.0 361.0 361.0 361.0Income taxes -78.1 -81.7 -83.5 -87.1 -90.0 Intangible 145.8 145.7 145.7 145.7 145.7Minority interest 59.7 61.9 63.5 65.0 66.5 Total liabil it ies 2,033.8 2,115.3 2,083.6 2,142.8 2,201.5Net inc ome 228.5 235.6 241.5 253.1 261.9 Current liabilities 918.2 1,002.1 1,158.6 1,217.8 1,276.5EPS (cts ) 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.5 Trade & other payables 690.0 783.8 938.6 987.8 1,036.5EBITDA 679.3 715.8 735.8 773.7 807.8 ST debt 188.2 198.3 200.0 210.0 220.0
Others 40.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0Long-term liabilities 1,115.6 1,113.2 925.0 925.0 925.0LT debt 523.1 433.6 450.0 450.0 450.0
Others 592.5 679.6 475.0 475.0 475.0Total equi ty 2,347.6 2,473.9 2,595.8 2,722.4 2,853.4Paid-in capital 565.5 568.6 568.6 568.6 568.6Reserve 1,199.3 1,318.4 1,439.1 1,565.7 1,696.7Others 35.7 4.5 5.7 5.7 5.7Minority interest 547.1 582.4 582.4 582.4 582.4
CASH FLOW (SGD m) KEY RATIOS
FYE Dec 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F FYE Dec 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F
Operating cash flow 592.6 777.5 664.4 629.0 659.8 Growth (% YoY)Pretax income 366.3 379.2 388.5 405.2 418.4 Sales 5.1 6.4 6.1 6.2 5.8Depreciation & amortisation 290.9 316.6 325.6 345.7 365.6 OP 11.0 2.8 2.8 4.3 3.3Change in working capital -61.0 98.5 87.2 20.2 19.9 EBITDA 7.9 5.4 2.8 5.1 4.4
Others -3.6 -16.8 -136.9 -142.2 -144.2 NP 4.1 3.1 2.5 4.8 3.5Investment cash flow -399.7 -486.5 -490.7 -396.6 -399.0 EPS 4.1 3.0 2.4 4.7 3.4Net capex -394.9 -489.9 -450.0 -400.0 -399.0 Profitability (%)Change in LT investment -35.1 -13.3 -40.7 3.4 0.0 Gross margin NA NA NA NA NAChange in other assets 30.3 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating margin 12.1 11.7 11.3 11.1 10.9Financing cash flow -111.8 -281.0 -319.0 -126.5 -133.3 EBITDA margin 21.2 21.0 20.3 20.1 19.9Change in share capital 5.2 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net profit margin 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.4Net change in debt 69.5 -119.9 18.1 10.0 10.0 ROA 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3Change in other LT liab. -74.4 -52.3 -216.4 -9.9 -12.3 ROE 13.1 12.8 12.4 12.2 11.9Dividends paid -112.1 -115.0 -120.7 -126.6 -131.0 StabilityNet cash flow 81.1 10.0 -145.3 105.9 127.5 Gross debt (cash)/equity (%) 30.3 25.5 25.0 24.2 23.5Free cash flow 197.7 287.6 214.4 229.0 260.8 Net debt (cash)/equity (%) 6.2 2.2 8.4 4.5 0.2
Int. coverage (X) 10.9 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.6Int. & ST debt coverage (X) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7Cash flow int. coverage (X) 16.6 22.0 19.0 18.0 18.9Cash flow int. & ST debt (X) 2.6 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.6Current ratio (X) 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9Quick ratio (X) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9Net debt (cash) ($'m) 144.6 55.2 218.6 122.7 5.2Per share data (cts)EPS 11.0 11.3 11.5 12.1 12.5CFPS 28.4 37.2 31.8 30.0 31.5BVPS 86.2 90.5 96.2 102.2 108.3SPS 153.7 163.2 173.0 183.5 193.9EBITDA/share 32.6 34.3 35.2 37.0 38.5DPS 5.5 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0
Source: Company, Maybank KE
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RESEARCH OFFICES REGIONAL
P K B ASU Regional Head, Research & Economics(65) 6432 1821 [email protected] Chew Hann, CA Regional Head of Institutional Research(603) 2297 8686 [email protected] Mun HonRegional Strategist (852) 2268 0630 [email protected] NG Seng YeowRegional Products & Planning(852) 2268 0644 [email protected]
ECONOMICSSuhaimi I LIAS Chief Economist
Singapore | Malaysia(603) 2297 8682 [email protected] L ORENZO Economist
Philippines | Indonesia
(63) 2 849 8836 [email protected] S UWISUTTANGKUL Economist
Thailand(662) 658 6300 [email protected]
MALAYSIAWONG Chew Hann, CA Head of Research (603) 2297 8686 [email protected]
StrategyConstruction & Infrastructure
Desmond C HNG , ACA(603) 2297 8680 [email protected]
Banking - Regional LIAW Thong Jung(603) 2297 8688 [email protected]
Oil & GasAutomotiveShipping
ONG Chee Ting(603) 2297 8678 [email protected]
PlantationsMohshin A ZIZ (603) 2297 8692 [email protected]
AviationPetrochemPower
YIN Shao Yang, CPA(603) 2297 8916 [email protected]
Gaming RegionalMedia Power
WONG Wei Sum, CFA(603) 2297 8679 [email protected]
Property & REITsLEE Yen Ling(603) 2297 8691 [email protected]
Building MaterialsManufacturingTechnology
LEE Cheng Hooi Head of Retail [email protected]
Technicals
HONG KONG / CHINAEdward F UNG Head of Research (852) 2268 0632 [email protected]
ConstructionIvan C HEUNG (852) 2268 0634 [email protected]
PropertyIndustrial
Ivan L I (852) 2268 0641 [email protected]
Banking & FinanceJacqueline K O (852) 2268 0633 [email protected]
Consumer Staples Andy P OON (852) 2268 0645 [email protected]
Telecom & equipmentSamantha K WONG (852) 2268 0640 [email protected]
Consumer Discretionaries Alex Y EUNG (852) 2268 0636 [email protected]
IndustrialCatherine C HAN (852) 2268 0631 [email protected]
Cement Ani ta H WANG , CFA | Jacky W ONG , CFA [email protected] | [email protected](852) 2268 0142 | (852) 2268 0107
Special SituationsQuants
INDIAJigar S HAH Head of Research (91) 22 6623 2601 [email protected]
Oil & GasAutomobileCement
Anub hav G UPTA (91) 22 6623 2605 [email protected]
Metal & MiningCapital goodsProperty
Haripreet B ATRA (91) 226623 2606 [email protected]
SoftwareMedia
Ganesh R AM (91) 226623 2607 [email protected]
TelecomContractor
Darpin S HAH (91) 226623 2610 [email protected]
Banking & Financial ServicesGagan K WATRA (91 )226623 2612 [email protected]
Small Cap
SINGAPOREStephanie W ONG Head of Research (65) 6432 1451 [email protected]
StrategySmall & Mid Caps
Gregory Y AP (65) 6432 1450 [email protected]
Technology & ManufacturingTelcos - Regional
Wilson L IEW (65) 6432 1454 [email protected]
Hotel & ResortProperty & Construction
James K OH (65) 6432 1431 [email protected]
LogisticsResourcesConsumerSmall & Mid Caps
YEAK Chee Keong, CFA(65) 6433 5730 [email protected]
HealthcareOffshore & Marine
Ali son F OK (65) 6433 5745 [email protected]
ServicesS-chips
Bernard C HIN (65) 6433 5726 [email protected]
Transport (Land, Shipping & Aviation)ONG Kian Lin(65) 6432 1470 [email protected]
REITs / P ropertyWei Bin(65) 6432 1455 [email protected]
S-chipsSmall & Mid Caps
INDONESIAKatarina S ETIAWAN Head of Research
(62) 21 2557 1125 [email protected]
Lucky A RIESANDI , CFA (62) 21 2557 1127 [email protected]
Base metalsCoalOil & Gas
Rahmi M ARINA (62) 21 2557 1128 [email protected]
BankingMultifinance
Pandu A NUGRAH (62) 21 2557 1137 [email protected]
AutoHeavy equipmentPlantationToll road
Adi N. W ICAKSONO (62) 21 2557 1130 [email protected]
Generalist Anth ony Y UNUS (62) 21 2557 1134 [email protected]
CementInfrastructureProperty
Arw ani P RANADJAYA (62) 21 2557 1129 [email protected]
Technicals
PHILIPPINESLuz L ORENZO Head of Research +63 2 849 8836 luz_ [email protected]
StrategyLaura D Y-LIACCO (63) 2 849 8840 [email protected]
UtilitiesConglomeratesTelcos
Lovell S ARREAL (63) 2 849 8841 [email protected]
ConsumerMediaCementMining
Kenneth N ERECINA (63) 2 849 8839 [email protected]
ConglomeratesPropertyPorts/ Logistics
Katherine T AN (63) 2 849 8843 [email protected]
BanksConstruction
THAILANDMayuree C HOWVIKRAN Head of Research (66) 2658 6300 ext 1440 [email protected]
StrategyMaria B RENDA S ANCHEZ L APIZ Co-Head of Research Dir (66) 2257 0250 | (66) 2658 6300 ext [email protected]
Andr ew S TOTZ Strategist (66) 2658 6300 ext [email protected] P EERASUB (66) 2658 6300 ext 1430 [email protected]
MediaCommerce
Sutthichai K UMWORACHAI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1400 [email protected]
EnergyPetrochem
Termporn T ANTIVIVAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1520 [email protected]
PropertyWoraphon W IROONSRI (66) 2658 6300 ext 1560 [email protected]
Banking & FinanceJaroonpan W ATTANAWONG (66) 2658 6300 ext 1404 [email protected]
TransportationSmall cap.
Suchot T HIRAWANNARAT (66) 2658 6300 ext 1550 [email protected]
AutomotiveConstruction MaterialsSoft commodity
VIETNAMMichael K OKALARI, CFA Head of Research +84 838 38 66 47 [email protected]
StrategyNguyen Thi Ngan Tuyen
+84 844 55 58 88 x 8081 [email protected] and BeverageOil and Gas
Ngo Bich Van+84 844 55 58 88 x 8084 [email protected]
BankingNguyen Quang Duy+84 844 55 58 88 x 8082 [email protected]
RubberDang Thi Kim Thoa+84 844 55 58 88 x 8083 [email protected]
ConsumerNguyen Trung Hoa+84 844 55 58 88 x 8088 [email protected]
SteelSugarMacro
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Definiti on of RatingsMaybank Kim Eng Research uses the following rating system:
BUY Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 monthsHOLD Total return is expected to be between -15% to +15% in the next 12 monthsSELL Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months
Appl icabi li ty of Ratings The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings areonly applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do notcarry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.
Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):
Adex =Advertising Expenditure FCF =Free Cashflow PE =P rice EarningsBV =Book Value FV =Fair Value PEG =PE Ratio To GrowthCAGR =Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY =Financial Year PE R =PE RatioCapex =Capital Expenditure FYE =Financial Year End QoQ =Quarter-On-QuarterCY =Calendar Year MoM =Month-On-Month ROA =Return On AssetDCF =Discounted Cashflow NAV =Net Asset Value ROE =Return On Equity
DPS =Dividend Per Share NTA =Net Tangible Asset ROSF =Return On Shareholders FundsEBIT =Earnings Before Interest And Tax P =Price WACC =Weighted Average Cost Of CapitalEBITDA =EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. =P er Annum YoY =Year-On-YearEP S =Earnings Per Share PAT =Profit After Tax YTD =Year-To-DateEV =Enterprise Value PBT =P rofit Before Tax
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APPENDIX I
Add iti onal inf orm atio n on ment ion ed sec uri ties is availab le on requ est.
Jurisdiction Specific Additional Disclaimers:
THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE P RESS OR OTHER MEDIA, ANDMAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA, OR PROVIDED OR
TRANSMITTED TO ANY KOREAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWSIN THE REPUBLIC OF KOREA. BY ACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FOREGOING LIMITATIONS.
THIS RESEARCH REPORT IS STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL TO THE RECIPIENT, MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED TO THE P RESS OR OTHER MEDIA, ANDMAY NOT BE REPRODUCED IN ANY FORM AND MAY NOT BE TAKEN OR TRANSMITTED INTO MALAYSIA OR PROVIDED OR TRANSMITTED TO ANYMALAYSIAN PERSON. FAILURE TO COMPLY WITH THIS RESTRICTION MAY CONSTITUTE A VIOLATION OF SECURITIES LAWS IN MALAYSIA. BYACCEPTING THIS REPORT, YOU AGREE TO BE BOUND BY THE FORE GOING LIMITATIONS.
Without prejudice to t he foregoing, the reader is to note that additional disclaimers, warnings or qualifications may apply if the reader is receiving or accessing this report in or from ot her than Singapore.
As of 15 May 2012, Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. and the covering analyst do not have any interest in ComfortDelgro.
Anal yst Certi fic atio n:
The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
2012 Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte Ltd. All rights reserved. Except as specifically permitted, no part of this presentation may be reproduced or distributedin any manner without the prior written permission of Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. Maybank Kim Eng Research Pte. Ltd. accepts no liability whatsoeverfor the actions of third parties in this respect.
Stephanie WongCEO, Maybank Kim Eng Research