Introduction to the Topic

Population:

In sociology and biology a population is the collection of people or organisms of a

particular species living in a given geographic area or space, usually measured by a

census.

Some sociologists believe that, as of now, the population is growing at such a rate that in

the near future, the planet will no longer be able to support the huge numbers. There are

many different solutions to population growth. The United Nations has chosen to allow

different countries to set a maximum size for families living in that country, (ex: China).

Work in improving socio-economic rights and opportunities for women have also proven

to reduce population growth to a more sustainable level.

The age and gender distribution of a population within a given nation or region is

commonly represented by means of a population pyramid. This is a triangular distribution

with the portions of the population along the horizontal X-axis and the 5-year age groups

(cohorts) along the vertical Z-axis. Male population is shown to the left of the vertical

axis and female to the right.

Showing the age structure of the population in this way allows some broad inferences

about age-related mortality rates to be made. Nations with low infant mortality and high

longevity will display a more rectangular shape as most of the population lives to old age.

Other countries have a more pyramidal shape with a wide base, reflecting higher infant

mortality and greater risk of early death.

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Population Growth:

Population growth is the change in population over time, and can be quantified as the

change in the number of individuals in a population per unit time. The term population

growth can technically refer to any species, but almost always refers to humans, and it is

often used informally for the more specific demographic term population growth rate,

and is often used to refer specifically to the growth of the population of the world.

The world population has grown tremendously over the past two thousand years. In 1999,

the planet's population passed the six billion mark. The current mid-year 2007 world

population is estimated at 6,602,224,175.

Population Growth Rate:

Population growth rate (PGR) is the increase in a country’s population during a period of

time, usually one year, expressed as a percentage of the population at the start of that

period. It reflects the number of births and deaths during the period and the number of

people migrating to and from a country.

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The Population Issue: Marx Vs.Malthus

Revised version of a paper presented at the Pacific Sociological Association Meeting in

Honolulu, April 1971 published in DEN NY VERDEN (Journal of the Institute for

Development Research), Copenhagen, Denmark, December 1973.

It has currently become fashionable to argue that excessive population growth stands in

the way of economic growth and that underdeveloped countries should take measures to

reduce their rates of natural increase. Population growth appears today as the major

factor determining underdevelopment and population control is advocated as the most

urgent and necessary step if development is to be eventually achieved.

Within the context of the developed countries it is argued that their pressing problems

such as urban blight, crime, pollution, environmental deterioration, etc. would have

greater possibilities of being satisfactorily solved if population growth were to be

curtailed.

From a Marxist viewpoint, such "self-evident truths" are but reifications of concrete

historical, social, political, and economic relations, which should be taken into account if

the population issue is to be at all understood. Just as in the 18th century the English

ruling classes fought the impact of the French Revolution with military and ideological

weapons among which Malthus' "Essay on Population" was perhaps the most important,

today the ruling classes are bringing back the Malthusian argument in an effort to

increase their control over the growing number of the dispossessed. Like Malthus,

contemporary socio-economic theorists view excessive population rather than social

institutions and social relations as the main source and barrier to the solution of social

problems. It is, therefore, necessary to show light on the Marxist critique and a Marxist

alternative to the Malthusian and Neo-Malthusian approaches to the study of population.

The Malthusian Argument

Malthus' argument rests upon two propositions; unchecked population increases in a

geometrical ration while subsistence increases in an arithmetical ratio. The two

propositions together constitute the famous principle of population which, according to

Malthus, is "one of the causes that have hitherto impeded the progress of mankind

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towards happiness" (Malthus, 1933:5). This cause is "intimately united with the very

nature of man , it is the constant tendency in all animated life to increase beyond the

nourishment prepared for it" (Malthus, 1933:5); "its natural and necessary effects are

very considerable portion of that vice and misery, and of that unequal distribution of the

bounties of nature which it has been the unceasing object of the enlightened

philanthropists in all ages to correct" (Malthus, 1933:5).

Malthus bases his principle of population on a natural law; the tendency of all animated

life to increase beyond the means available for its subsistence. The natural law of

population growth is checked by another natural law; the law of necessity which restrains

that growth within certain boundaries and keeps it down to the level of the means of

subsistence. Within the human species the natural law of necessity operates through

various checks, which fall under two main categories:

a) Preventive checks which control fertility (i.e., moral restraint or marriage

postponement, and vice).

b) Positive checks which increase mortality or the probability of dying (i.e.,

"unwholesome occupations, epidemics, war, plague and famine) (Malthus, 1933:14).

The constant operation of the principle of population brings about the operation of the

law of necessity. The outcome is "much of that poverty and misery observable among

the lower classes of people in every nation, and those reiterated failures in the efforts of

the higher classes to relieve them" (Malthus, 1933:1).

Malthus also brings support to his theory in the law of diminishing returns the implication

of which is that food production is bound to lag behind population growth. This law

provides him with the most general theoretical basis for his principle of population and

constitutes the basic argument with which Neo-Malthusian thought addresses itself to

population problems today. Thus, according to contemporary thought about this matter,

not only food production but also every natural resource is bound to lag behind

population growth.

The Marxist ArgumentMarx and Engels reacted very strongly against Malthus' population theory which they

saw as an apology for the status quo and all throughout their work they referred to

Malthus in a very ironic and disdainful manner. Leaving aside the superficial aspect of

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their criticism, in looking at their scientific critical statements it is possible to distinguish

two levels of analysis.

1. At the most general theoretical level Marx and Engels see in Malthus' principle

of population another instance of the way in which bourgeois economists reify

social relations.

Malthus begins "post festum indeed, with the results of the process of capitalist

development before him; i.e., widespread poverty, hunger, unemployment, etc. and,

disregarding the concrete social relations of exploitation and competition which had

produced that hungry and unemployed population, he views it as the outcome of the

operation of inexorable natural laws. He reifies the specific relations of exploitation

which obtained at that time between wage workers and capitalists, and the

Antagonistic relations between the landed and the industrial interests, changing them into

the operation of the natural law of necessity that manifests itself through positive checks

to population growth. Poverty, unwholesome working conditions, hunger, disease,

unemployment, etc. are depicted as the product of the natural law of necessity which in

that way checks the functioning of another natural law; the tendency of all animated life

to reproduce itself beyond the means of subsistence.

2. At a more specific level, Marx's answer to Malthus' principle of population is the

principle of the reserve army of labor or relative surplus population, which he

elaborates in the course of his analysis of the general law of capital accumulation

The accumulation and expansion of capital constitutes the driving force of capitalism and

it becomes possible only as long as capitalists can operate with a profit. Profits originate

in the appropriation, by the capitalist, of the surplus value produced by the labor power

he buys. Accumulation takes place when capitalists convert a portion of there surplus

value into capital; this allows them to expand, to appropriate more surplus value which

will lead to further accumulation and expansion and so on.

The process of accumulation implies also a process of increase in the demand for labor.

As an increase in the demand of any commodity produces an increase in the price of that

commodity, in this specific case, accumulation leads to an increase in the value of labor

power above its natural value (that is, the wages which assure the worker a minimum

level of subsistence). The consequences of such increase would be to narrow the gap

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between the amounts invested in labor power and the value of the output produced by

labor power. In other words, there would be a reduction or even a disappearance of the

surplus value.

In actual practice, wages tend to rise together with capital accumulation but they never

rise enough to endanger the system itself. For the classical economists and for Malthus in

particular, the mechanism that kept wages equal to the "natural" price of labor power is

embodies in the principle of population. When wages are high, workers over-reproduce

themselves. The consequent population increase produces a supply of labor larger than

the demand and wages fall to their natural price. As this natural price only gives to the

workers a minimum level of subsistence, the only way in which workers can improve

their condition is by controlling their numbers thereby raising the price of labor. Poverty

and unemployment are, therefore, only the result of the workers' natural propensity to

reproduce beyond the available means of subsistence.

Marx rejects the Malthusian solution to the problems created by the contradictions

inherent in the capitalist system. In the process of capital accumulation the composition

of capital does not remain constant; it changes and it is this change which is most

important to understand the effect of capital accumulation and expansion upon the

working population.

From the perspective of its value composition, capital is composed of constant capital

(value of the means of production) and variable capital (value of the labor power). From

the perspective of its technical composition, capital is composed of the means of

production and living labor. Changes in the technical composition produce changes in

the value composition and this correlation between the two is what Marx calls the organic

composition of capital (Marx, 1970:612). In the process of capital accumulation the

organic composition of the total social capital changes.

This is the general law of capital accumulation; the appropriation and accumulation of

surplus value in the hands of the capitalist class leads to the poverty of those who are

precisely the source of that surplus value. In other words, capital accumulation

unavoidably leads to the unemployment of a sector of the available labor force.

Unemployment, as inherent feature of the capitalist mode of production, means the

constant presence of a "relative surplus population" or "reserve army of labor" whose size

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and composition will vary with the concrete needs of capital accumulation within the

context of any given social formation where the capitalist mode of production may

prevail.

The error of Malthus and the classical economists was to focus their analysis of capital

accumulation and its effects upon specific sectors of production instead of looking at the

relationship between total social capital and the total labor force. This perspective leads

them to confuse the laws that regulate that general ratio with the laws which regulate the

allocation of specific sectors of the labor force to specific sectors of production (Marx,

1970:638-639).

Marx's analysis shows that population is the dependent variable. Whenever the reserve

army of labor is relatively depleted and the level of wages tends to rise reducing the rate

of surplus value, the capitalist class will adopt measures (i.e., technological

improvements, foreign investments, etc.) which, while increasing the productivity of

labor and the rate of profit, will render obsolete a number of jobs.

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Distribution of World Population

The world population is the total number of humans on Earth at a given time. In July,

2007, the world's population had reached over 6.6 billion. In line with population

projections, this figure continues to grow at rates that were unprecedented before the 20th

century, although the rate of increase has almost halved since its peak, which was reached

in 1963, of 2.2 percent per year.

In 2000, the United Nations estimated that the world's population was growing at the rate

of 1.14% (or about 75 million people) per year. According to data from the CIA's 2005–

2006 World Factbooks, the world human population currently increases by 203,800 every

day. 2007 CIA Factbook increased this to 211,090 people every day.

Globally, the population growth rate has been steadily declining from its peak of 2.19%

in 1963, but growth remains high in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

In some countries there is negative population growth (i.e. net decrease in population

over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates)

and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next

decade, Japan and Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population

growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.

This is a list of countries ordered according to population. The list includes sovereign

states and self-governing dependent territories.

RankCountry/territory/entity

Population

Date% of world population

World 6,671,226,000 July 1, 2007 100%

1 People's Republic of China 1,319,704,000 August 1, 2007 19.78%

2 India 1,169,016,000 17.52%

3 United States 302,495,015 Aug 1, 2007 4.53%

4 Indonesia 231,627,000 3.47%

5 Brazil 186,736,000 2.8%

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6 Pakistan 160,944,000 2.41%

7 Bangladesh 158,665,000 2.38%

8 Nigeria 148,093,000 2.22%

9 Russia 142,499,000 2.14%

10 Japan 127,750,000 June 1, 2007 1.91%

11 Mexico 103,263,388 Oct 17, 2005 1.55%

12 Philippines 88,706,300 July 1, 2007 1.33%

13 Vietnam 87,375,000 1.31%

14 Germany 82,314,900 Dec 31, 2006 1.23%

15 Ethiopia 77,127,000 July 2007 1.16%

16 Egypt 75,498,000 1.13%

17 Turkey 74,877,000 1.12%

18 Iran 71,208,000 1.07%

19France (including overseas France)

64,102,140 January 1, 2007 0.96%

20 Thailand 62,828,706 Dec 31, 2006 0.94%

Republic of China

The People's Republic of China is the largest country in East Asia. With over 1.32 billion

people, it has the largest population of any country in the world and is the world's third or

fourth largest country in terms of total area. Due to its vast population, its rapidly

growing economy, its large research and development investments and its status as a

declared nuclear weapons state, the PRC is often considered by commentators as an

emerging superpower. Market-based economic reforms since 1978 have helped lift 400

million people out of poverty, bringing the poverty rate down from 53% of population in

1981 to 8% by 2001.

India

Officially the Republic of India is a sovereign country in South Asia. It is the seventh-

largest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the most

populous liberal democracy in the world. With the world's 12th largest economy at

market exchange rates and the 3rd largest in purchasing power India has made rapid

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economic progress in the last decade. Although the country's standard of living is

projected to rise sharply in the next half-century, it currently battles high levels of

poverty, illiteracy, persistent malnutrition, and environmental degradation. A pluralistic,

multi-lingual, and multi-ethnic society, India is also home to a diversity of wildlife in a

variety of protected habitats.

United States of America

The United States of America is a federal constitutional republic comprising fifty states,

one federal district, and fourteen territories. At 3.7 million square miles (9.6 million km²)

and with 300 million people, the United States is the third or fourth largest country by

total area and third largest by land area and population. The United States is one of the

world's most ethnically diverse nations, the product of large-scale immigration from

many countries. Its national economy is the world's largest, with a nominal 2006 gross

domestic product (GDP) of more than $13 trillion.

Indonesia

Indonesia, officially the Republic of Indonesia is a nation in Southeast Asia. With a

population of over 234 million, it is the world's fourth most populous country and the

most populous Muslim-majority nation, although officially it is not an Islamic state.

Despite its large population and densely populated regions, Indonesia has vast areas of

wilderness that support the world's second highest level of biodiversity. The country is

richly endowed with natural resources, yet poverty is a defining feature of contemporary

Indonesia.

Brazil

Brazil officially the Federative Republic of Brazil is the largest and most populous

country in Latin America, and the fifth largest in the world in both area and population.

Its territory covers 8,514,877 km² between central South America and the Atlantic

Ocean, and it is the eastern-most country of the Americas. While Brazil has one of the

largest populations in the world, population density is low and the inner continental land

has large areas of low population. It is a multiracial country composed of European,

Amerindian, African and Asian elements.

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Pakistan 

Pakistan officially the Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a republic in South Asia, marking

the region where South Asia converges with Central Asia and the Middle East. Pakistan

is the sixth most populous country in the world and is the second most populous country

with a Muslim majority. Pakistan has an estimated population of 169,270,617, as of 2007.

Pakistan has the world's sixth largest population, placing it higher than Russia, and lower

than Brazil. Because of Pakistan's high growth rate, it is expected to surpass Brazil in

population in the year 2020. Population projections for Pakistan are relatively difficult

because of the apparent differences in the accuracy of each census and the inconsistencies

between various surveys related to the fertility rate, but it is likely that the rate of growth

peaked in the 1980s and has since declined significantly. The population was estimated at

162,400,000 on July 1, 2005, with a fertility rate of 34 per thousand, a death rate of 10

per thousand, and the rate of natural increase at 2.4%. Pakistan also has a high infant

mortality rate of 70 per thousand births.

Bangladesh

The People's Republic of Bangladesh is a country in South Asia. It is surrounded by India

on all sides except for a small border with Myanmar to the far southeast and the Bay of

Bengal, part of the Indian Ocean, to the south. Together with the Indian state of West

Bengal, it makes up the ethno-linguistic region of Bengal. Bangladesh is among the most

highly (ranked 7th) and densely (2nd among major countries) populated countries in the

world. The population is generally poor, rural and Muslim.

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Problem Tree Analysis

Causes and Effects 1. Religious and Ideological Conservativeness

Allah is the Provider

Basically it is the traditional conviction that children are gift of God and to deny this gift

is really dreadful. Similarly, some so called maulanas and maulvis consider family

planning as a sin. Some other ideologically conserved people mostly in rural areas think

that family planning is vulgarity. Women feel reluctant to go to doctor for family

planning. Men also make it as a matter of their ego to go along with their wives for

certain purposes. They are scared to use advanced medical technologies like

contraception. So ultimately religion is used as lame excuse to serve own interests.

Effects

Shyness and fear to approach doctor and to benefit from medical technology even if

they have any access.

2. Traditional Barriers

Early Marriages

Marrying at very young age and young pregnancies are very common in backward rural

areas.

Desire for a male child

In rural as well as urban areas couples strive for a male child, which is considered to be

the symbol of “pride”. No matter in this attempt they give birth to how many daughters.

Their underlying belief is families having more male members carry more weight in rural

affairs.

Gender Inequality

Continued motherhood is the option given to mothers, as they are not allowed to go out to pursue for

economic opportunities. Also women in rural areas are considered as the sole source of recreation. No

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other “entertainment” alternatives left for the poverty-ridden common man but to procreate; easy and

cheap to acquire

They are not required to give opinion in bearing number of children. Same inequality is

observed while providing education.

Effects

Economic Effects

Proportion of working adults diminishes because more and more child labor is

taking place which seriously damage the overall economy as well as the image of

nation.

Dependency burden increases because of more children due to decrease in infant

mortality and increase in fertility rates. Senior citizens with improved health,

which decreases their mortality rates.

Unemployment

Immigration

Immigration to other countries for better employment opportunities; brain drain

o Increased illegal immigration to other countries

Health Effects

Increased rates of hemorrhagic fevers and other infectious disease brought on by crowding

Malnutrition; starvation; increased rate of diet-deficiency disease (eg rickets)

Low birth weights of infants, due to:

o Mothers being unable to sustain adequate diet during pregnancy to sustain the fetus to

full term

Low life expectancy

3. Social Problems

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Polygamy

Multiple marriages are becoming a trend. People go for marrying more than one

woman despite of their needs just for the purpose of entertainment.

Old age Security

Parents bear more children in order to ensure the security of their future.

Effects

Overall decrease in standard of living

Lack of skilled labor

4. Economic Problems

Agrarian land require more labor

Overpopulation is the problem in developing countries. As we know that

developing countries are at agrarian stage and more labor is therefore required to

fulfill the needs.

Effects

Environmental Effects

Pressure on agriculture

Deforestation/Desertification

o Unsustainable use/depletion of natural resources

o Loss of entire ecosystems; disturbed natural cycles

o Mass species extinctions

More waste production; impacts water supply, land, natural resources.

Increased energy consumption leads to gradual depletion of natural resources

Increased pollution (air, water, noise, soil)

Inadequate fresh water supply (for drinking, sewage treatment, and industrial effluent

discharge)

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Global warming due to:

o Changes in atmospheric composition due to pollution

Vertical Housing schemes

Decrease in capacity of roads to carry motor vehicles

5. Demographic Transitions

External Migrations

Refugees that are coming from Afghanistan are increasing in the overall population in

Pakistan

Effects

Environmental effects as already mentioned

6. Psychological Issues

Status Inequality

Basically those having low income and low status cling to bear more children in order to

cope up with the inferiority complex

Fear of Infant mortality increases fertility rates.

Fertility is the number of children a couple have. Mostly in least developed countries the fear and the

actual death of infants increase this rate. Fertility is seen as symbols of prosperity, prestige, and

security.

Effects

Social Effects

Decrease in education level, due to:

o Higher teacher/student ratio

Decrease in health standards, due to:

o Higher doctor/patient ratio

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Conflict on scarce resources

Elevated crime rates due to unemployment

7. Improvement in technology

Rapid Expansion of Agriculture

The use of technology has made possible the rapid expansion of agriculture in the

LDCs. The use of pesticides in LDCs, for example has increased between 400 to

600% in the last 25 years of the twentieth century. In more recent years, the

technology has produced a broader variety of techniques: new kinds of seed, chemical

fertilizers, pesticides, and more sophisticated machinery.

Improvement in public health

Scientists have learned a great deal about the ways to prevent and cure many types of

disease. Thus, millions of people who would have died of disease a century ago are

more likely to live to old age. The most effective tools in the con-quest of disease

have been improved knowledge about nutrition, vaccinations, better public health

practices and the development of new medicines. And finally, with the advent of new

medicines, disease was less of a problem in MDCs because medical science has

invented a whole range of new medicines with which to treat everything from

infections to pneumonia. In many LDCs, new drugs and medicines are simply not

available.

Effects

Environmental effects as already mentioned

Trunk Problem“Unawareness of the consequences and irrational thinking”

Basically this problem is social. Unawareness is the root cause of all other causes. People

give birth to children without considering their resources exceeding their capacity to

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support them but are unaware of the aftermath. They are not aware that how not required

children for when the given resources do not meet their basic needs can add in their

misery.

Irrational thinking is basically their reluctance to benefit from medical technology even if

they are accessed to it. As it is also in the causes that religious hard thinkers, which

actually include so called maulanas preach not to do family planning as it is considered to

be a sin.

All the traditional barriers, which include early marriages and gender inequality, are the

result of illogical and irrational thinking.

Unawareness include illiteracy, low nutritional knowledge, reluctance to follow

population policies. Irrational thinking is basically misinterpreting the actual thing into

ridiculous. For example as we have already seen in the cause of religious and ideological

conservativeness.

Situation of population Growth in Pakistan

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The continued high fertility and rapid growth of population has made Pakistan the sixth

most populous country in the world with a population of 158 million. The population of

Pakistan in 2003 was estimated by the United Nations at 153,578,000, which placed it on

number 6 in population among the 193 nations of the world. In that year approximately

4% of the population was over 65 years of age, with another 42% of the population under

15 years of age. There were 105 males for every 100 females in the country in 2003.

According to the UN, the annual population growth rate for 2000–2005 was 2.44%, with

the projected population for the year 2015 at 204,465,000.

Pakistan is likely to become the world’s fourth most populous country in the year 2050

having a population of 305 million, with the current population growth rate of 2.1 percent

per annum (most populous country by the year 2050)

Over the past decade, there has been a meaningful slowing of population growth rate in

Pakistan. However, the rate is still high and child survivability has improved. Presently

70% of the population is below the age of 30 years old. This demographic transition can

be a serious issue for the future.

According to the official figures the population growth of Pakistan came down from the

over three percent in the earlier years to 2.6 per cent in the mid-1980s and then to two

percent in the year 2000. But the people who see infants being born in high numbers,

except for the modern families, don’t believe the growth rate has really come down to

two per cent. The Economic Survey says that if the population growth had slowed to two

percent then population would now have been 103.4 million instead of 155 million.

In Pakistan the decline in mortality rate is due to the elimination of epidemic diseases and

improvement in medical services. However, despite a considerable decline in the total

mortality, infant mortality still remained high at 77 per thousand live births in 2005. The

major reasons for this high rate of infant and child mortality are diarrhea and pneumonia.

Maternal mortality ratio ranges from 350-400 per hundred thousand births per year

leading to about 17,000 newborn babies being born motherless, the figures reveal.

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Population growth rate, with estimates taken from the 2006 of Pakistan is 1.84.The high

population growth rate of Pakistan has been adversely affecting its economic growth rate

so far. Normally, when a country becomes rich its population begins contracting. For

example Northern Europe, South Korea, although in the 1960s both started off on a

similar economic base. Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been able to achieve low

population growth rate because of women’s education and profitable employment.

In Pakistan, with the inadequacy and poor quality of education with our ghost schools

and ghost teachers and with our indifference to the abuses of child labour which is a

process of earning , we have over 1,800 camel-riding kids left trapped in the Gulf states.

Poverty at this end and good monetary rewards at the other end make the parents agree to

let their little kids ride those racing camels. A large number of them have died in the

process. Yet the cruel game has been going on for long with more kids being dumped in.

Due to rapid growth of population in Pakistan the large population base with its high

annual growth the country has today a large number of uneducated, untrained and

unskilled persons who are unemployed. They migrate from the rural areas to the cities

and start living in Katchi Abadis where there are no basic facilities When jobs are not

available crime breeds there.

The fact is that as long Pakistan has a large population and a high population growth rate,

our economic growth will be below the country’s real potential. And the negative features

of our system will be large in size and too many in numbers. Much of the resources of the

country would go into consumption and too little of them in production. Our exportable

surplus will be small and the exports far below the country’s potential.

We have mostly unskilled manpower, and what is produced in terms of value is small

compared to average Japanese or US worker’s products. In fact as the population

increases and more food is needed, more and more of the farming areas are converted

into residential colonies and the arable area becomes less and less.

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The environmental pollution caused by a large population is excessive, unless the people

are too disciplined. Sewerage disposal over here becomes more and more of a problem.

And now the sea is flowing into the cultivable land in Sindh and reducing the forming

area.

There are too many people everywhere. Over four million people are employed by the

central, provincial and local governments. Their pension bill is enormous and weighs

down on the government as the people live longer than before.

In Pakistan, in 1980-81 the number of women was 40.42 million while that of men was

44.67 million but in 2005 women are 76.36 million and men 77.59 million ,a gap of 1.23

million compared to over four million earlier.

Federal minister for population Chaudhri Shahbaz Hussain says that the population

Planning Department is hiring 13,000 Imams and Khatibs to start a training programme.

It is good to use the services of Imams for controlling population if they take their task

earnestly. In Egypt the Rector of Al Azhar university had declared family planning in

conformity with Islamic teachings several decades ago and the Imams in Iran also play a

role in keeping the population growth in decline. But in Pakistan President Ziaul Haq had

said on TV, “God creates and God sustains. You go on doing your job.” Such open

rejection of family planning from the top was too discouraging to the family planning

staff. But the time has come to take family planning seriously when we do not have

enough drinking water and we live in the dark half the time because of power failure. Let

us keep our numbers down instead of making them more and more.

However, growth has been uneven and widespread poverty persists, particularly in the

rural areas, where two thirds of the population lives. Pakistan ranks 134th of the 173

countries on the United Nations Development Programme's Human Development Index

(Human Development Report, 1998). At least 35 million people live in abject poverty

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and public access to health, education, clean water, sanitation and family planning

remains low.

Alarming increase in population, there was an average of 5,000 cubic meters of water for

each person in 1947 but now the ratio had decreased to 1,000 cubic meters. Pakistan's

extremely high rate of population growth is caused by a falling death rate combined with

a continuing high birth rate. Pakistan's cities are expanding much faster than the overall

population. At independence in 1947, many refugees from India settled in urban areas.

The presence of large numbers Afghan refugees has had a large impact on the

demographics of Pakistan. The influx of refugees has had profound social consequences,

and the population of desert areas has also had an effect on the environment. Initially,

Pakistanis wanted to help their neighbors in a time of need, but difficulties slowly led

many to think that their friendship had gone far enough. And this rapid population growth

is affecting our country in a very negative way.

Pakistan Population Distribution and Density

Pakistan's people are not evenly distributed throughout the country. There is an average

of 146 persons per square kilometer, but the density varies dramatically, ranging from

scarcely populated arid areas, especially in Balochistan, to some of the highest urban

densities in the world in Karachi and Lahore.

About 68 percent of the population lived in rural areas in 1994, a decrease of 7 percent

since 1970. In contrast, the number of people living in urban areas has risen substantially,

resulting in an urban growth rate of 4.6 percent between 1980 and 1991.

More than half of Pakistan's population is below the age of fifteen; nearly a third is below

the age of nine. For cultural reasons, enumerating the precise number of females has been

difficult and estimates of the percentage of females in the population range from 47.5

percent in the 1981 census to 48.3 percent in the 1987-88 Labour Force Survey. Pakistan

is one of the few countries in the world with an inverse sex ratio: official sources claim

there are 111 men for every 100 women. The discrepancy is particularly obvious among

people over fifty: men account for 7.1 percent of the country's total population and

women for less than 5 percent.

21

Index of Pakistan population

Population Policy of Pakistan

In 1952 the Family Planning Association of Pakistan, initiated efforts to contain

population growth. Three years later, the government began to fund the association and

22

noted the need to reduce population growth in its First Five-Year Plan (1955-60). The

government soon combined its population planning efforts in hospitals and clinics into a

single program. Thus population planning was a dual effort led by the Family Planning

Association and the public sector.

In the mid-1960s, the Ministry of Health initiated a program in which intrauterine

devices (IUDs) were promoted. Payments were offered to hospitals and clinics as

incentives, and midwives were trained to treat patients. The government was able to

attract funding from many international donors, but the program lost support because the

targets were overly ambitious and because doctors and clinics allegedly over reported

their services to claim incentive payments.

The population planning program was suspended and substantively reorganized after the

fall of Mohammad Ayub Khan's government in 1969. In late December 1971, the

population was estimated at 65.2 million. In an attempt to control the population problem,

the government introduced several new programs. First, the Continuous Motivation

System Programme, which employed young urban women to visit rural areas, was

initiated. In 1975 the Inundation Programme was added. Based on the premise that

greater availability would increase use, shopkeepers throughout the country stocked birth

control pills and condoms. Both programs failed, however. The unmarried urban women

had little understanding of the lives of the rural women they were to motivate, and

shopkeepers kept the contraceptives out of sight because it was considered manner less to

display them in an obvious way.

Following Zia ul-Haq's coup in 1977, government population planning efforts were

almost halted. In 1980 the Population Division, formerly under the direction of a minister

of state, was renamed the Population Welfare Division and transferred to the Ministry

of Planning and Economic Development. This agency was charged with the delivery of

both family planning services and maternal and child health care. This reorganized

structure corresponded with the new population planning strategy, which was based on a

multifaceted community-based "cafeteria" approach, in cooperation with Family Welfare

Centres (essentially clinics) and Reproductive Health Centres (mostly engaged in

sterilizations). Community participation had finally become a cornerstone of the

23

government's policy, and it was hoped that contraceptive use would rise dramatically.

The population by 1980 had exceeded 84 million.

In preparing the Sixth Five-Year Plan (1983-88), the government projected a national

population of 147 million in the year 2000 if the growth rate were to be a constant at 2.8

percent per year, and of 134 million if the rate were to decline to the desired 2.1 percent

per year by then. By the Seventh Five-Year Plan (1988-93) period, the multipronged

approach initiated in the 1980s had increased international donor assistance and had

begun to enlist local NGOs. Efforts to improve maternal and child health were coupled

with education campaigns. Because of local mores concerning modesty, the government

avoided explicit reference to contraceptive devices and instead focused its public

education efforts on encouraging couples to limit their family size to two children.\

Pakistan’s new National Population Policy is consistent with ICPD objectives, focused on

national needs, seeks to incorporate population concerns into relevant development

strategies & plans and has integrated factors amongst others, relating to family planning

quality care, empowerment of women and improvement in service delivery.

The Population Policy addresses population issue centering on meeting the needs of

families in the unique social and cultural milieu of Pakistan. It builds around sustained

political commitment and the necessity for mobilizing broad support from various

stakeholders. These two factors are essential to achieve sustained economic growth

within the context of sustainable development. They directly contribute to improving the

welfare of individuals and the nation as a whole through reduced poverty, better health,

education and enhanced living standards. The Policy has a wide scope touching on

economy, human rights and the long-term prosperity of Pakistan. It pursues the core

problems such as low status of women, striking gender inequalities, high and rising levels

of poverty, insufficient allocation and expenditures in the social sector and the lack of

commitment to provide access to quality social services.

Based on demographic realities, to be effective the policy addresses the following three

objectives:

Reduction in rate & incidence of unwanted fertility.

Reduction in demand for large family size.

24

Greater investment in the youthful population

Focus on male involvement

The policy also recognizes that Pakistan is faced with its ever-largest adolescent

population. It has serious immediate implications for provision of schooling and health

services. Providing adequate jobs for this cohort is going to depend on both the successes

of economic revival program and reduction in fertility level.

The Policy proposes that concurrent with keeping a vigilant eye on the stabilization of

population growth a paradigm shift be made towards arresting the falling quality of life

standard, achieving low fertility desire through client centered quality services. It strives

for completion of the demographic transition which through decreasing fertility will

substantially contribute to the nation’s much needed economic revival. The overall vision

of the Policy is to address various dimensions of population issues in an informed,

voluntary and coordinated manner by Government, NGOs, private sector and civil

society.

In nutshell, the Population Policy sets out a broad framework and provides futuristic

vision to achieve the ultimate aim of reducing poverty and raising the quality of life of

the common man and woman. Efforts of all the stakeholders from the public sector, civil

society and the private sector would be instrumental in carrying forward the objective of

the Population Policy for providing sustainable development, creating conditions for

achieving replacement fertility levels followed by population stabilization, raising life

expectancy at birth for both men and women, reducing infant and child mortality as well

as maternal mortality, ensuring empowerment of women in decision-making and

providing family planning and reproductive health services to all citizens of Pakistan.

The Population Policy would seek implementation of a human rights agenda that has won

broad global consensus. It is note worthy that government recognizes the significance of

the population issue and expression of which is that the Population Policy under

reference, is the first ever to be formulated, it has stakeholder ownership and is under

submission to Cabinet for approval.

Population Sector Objectives and Goals

Goals

25

Decrease the population growth rate from 2.1% in 2001 to 1.82% in 2004 and

1.6% by the 2012.

Achieve a replacement level of fertility by the year 2020.

Increase pace of fertility decline. Increase contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR)

from existing 30% to 43% in 2004 to 57% in 2012.

Sustain increase in age of marriage of girls and ensuring a reduction in population

momentum through a delay in marriage and birth spacing patterns which should

reduce proportion of under 15 population from current 40 per cent to 30 per cent.

Increase programme coverage from 65% in 2001 to  76% in 2004 and 100 percent

by the year 2010.

Objectives

Encourage males as partners in the programme and promote responsible

fatherhood.

Merge existing vertical MOPW and MOH family planning grass root female

cadre for doors step coverage of unmet need.

All service outlets of Health Departments and Provincial Line Departments will

offer family planning.

Improve governance of population welfare programme.

Close the gap between Knowledge, Attitude and Practice (KAP).

Expand social marketing of contraceptives.

Enhance involvement of NGOs/civil society organizations.

Encourage private sector industrial organizations.

Demographic Goals

No. Indicators 2001 (Benchmark)

2002 2003 2004 2012

1 2 3 4 5 6 7(i) Total Fertility

Rate (TFR)4.6 4.2 3.9 3.6 2.8

(ii) Crude Birth Rate (CBR)

30.2 28.7 27.3 26 22.8

(iii) Crude Death Rate (CDR)

8.5 8.2 8 7.8 6.3

26

(iv) Population Growth Rate (PGR)

2.17 2.05 1.93 1.82 1.6

(v) Life Expectancy at Birth Total:MaleFemale

  62.962.962.9

  63.463.463.4

  63.963.963.9

  64.464.464.4

  68.769.168.3

(vi) Contraceptive Prevalence Rate (CPR)

30 34 37 40 53

Issues and Strategies

Issues Objective/Goal StrategiesLow Coverage  

High unmet need for family planning 33%

Increase programme coverage from 65% in 2001 to 76% in 2004 and 100 percent by the year 2010.

Encourage males as

Improve efficiency through merged cadre of Family Health Workers located in MOH. Family Planning in PHC project

27

partners in the programme and promote responsible fatherhood.

Merge existing vertical MOPW and MOH family planning grass root female cadre for doors step coverage of unmet need.

All service outlets of Health Departments, Provincial Line Department will offer family planning.

Improve governance of population welfare programme.

performance to be measured against PIs.

Improve status of women by creating linkages between poverty, family security and life span health care.

Increase and strengthen male cadre of motivators from District to Union Council level to close gap of female directed programme.

Family Planning Referrals through volunteer family planning male and female agents at District and below level.

Devise and HRD Plan and introduce result based management through programme MIS

Make family planning service delivery mandatory in all Health Departments.

Implementation of the Population Policy:

Government of Pakistan has formulated many policies regarding to control the population

growth in Pakistan through many programs at national level. In which Family planning’s

different versions of strategies are on the screen. Government of Pakistan has also

involved the NGO’s in this mission as well, and they are also busy in implementation by

using several effective tools and instruments. But due to many factors, many policies are

formulated and get vanished without being implemented. The most prominent factors are;

28

Illiteracy

Low access to the sources

Corruption

Old and fake traditions (rural areas especially)

Poverty

Weak status of Women

Male dominance

Molvi’s and Sufi’s self created Islamic Lectures

Unstable Governmental Conditions

Due to all these and other hidden factors, every policy is being prepared both by the

Government and semi-Government agencies, but without implementation they got

disappeared from the surface. Only few polices are supposed to be implemented in urban

areas but in rural areas although there are some health centers are working, but their

existence is totally useless. And Pakistan’s total population lives in the rural areas, where

all the above mentioned factors are present. In this awful situation how can be the

population controlled? So the rate of population growth is increasing day by day in

Pakistan.

Involvement of NGO’s/Civil Society/Private Sector Networking with social organization i.e. community based workers, rural support

programs, NGOs etc. 

Expand the Social Marketing of contraceptives for improved access and

encourage local manufacture of contraceptives.

To formulate National Population Policy.

To hold periodic reviews of implementation of policy/programmed with a view to

measure progress and identify major hurdles and constraints in the realization of

policy/programmed objectives.

To ensure coordination between the federal and provincial governments in the

attainment of these objectives.

29

To act as a think tank and advisory body for the Federal   Cabinet as well as

Provincial Governments.

Similarly Provincial Population Council to be set up and will be headed by

Governors/Chief Ministers.

 References

http://www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/society/pakistan_society_population_planning_~10377.html

http://www.photius.com/countries/pakistan/society/pakistan_society_population_distribut~10376.html

30

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html#Past

http://www.photius.com/rankings/world2050_rank.html

31

Appendix

Projected Population

Rank 2015 2025 2050 World 7,207,361 7,936,741 9,322,251

1 India 1,230,484 1,351,801 1,572,0552 China 1,410,217 1,470,787 1,462,058

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3 United States of America 321,225 346,822 397,0634 Pakistan 204,267 250,981 344,1705 Indonesia 250,068 272,911 311,3356 Nigeria 165,313 202,957 278,7887 Bangladesh 183,159 210,823 265,4328 Brazil 201,393 218,980 247,2449 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 84,045 114,876 203,52710 Ethiopia 89,765 113,418 186,45211 Mexico 119,175 130,194 146,65112 Philippines 95,881 107,073 128,38313 Vietnam 94,413 105,488 123,78214 Iran (Islamic Republic of) 87,103 99,343 121,42415 Egypt 84,425 94,777 113,84016 Japan 127,522 123,798 109,22017 Russian Federation 133,314 125,687 104,25818 Yemen 33,118 48,206 102,37919 Uganda 38,739 53,765 101,52420 Turkey 79,004 86,611 98,81821 Unites republic of Tanzania 49,343 60,395 82,74022 Thailand 72,490 77,480 82,49123 Afghanistan 35,577 45,193 72,26724 Colombia 52,641 59,161 70,86225 Germany 80,673 78,897 70,80526 Myanmar 55,260 60,243 68,54627 Sudan 42,433 49,556 63,53028 France 61,892 62,753 61,83229 Saudi Arabia 31,748 40,473 59,68330 United Kingdom 60,566 61,243 58,93331 Kenya 40,001 44,897 55,36832 Argentina 43,498 47,160 54,52233 Iraq 33,550 40,298 53,57434 Angola 20,795 28,213 53,32835 Nepal 32,138 38,706 52,41536 Niger 18,482 25,725 51,87237 Republic of Korea 50,631 52,065 51,56038 Algeria 38,022 42,738 51,18039 Morocco 37,680 42,002 50,36140 South Africa 44,616 43,772 47,30141 Madagascar 24,072 30,759 47,03042 Burkina Faso 18,509 25,227 46,30443 Italy 55,239 52,364 42,96244 Venezuela 30,554 34,775 42,15245 Peru 31,876 35,518 42,122

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46 Mali 17,657 23,461 41,72447 Somalia 15,405 21,192 40,93648 Uzbekistan 30,554 34,203 40,51349 Canada 34,419 36,717 40,40750 Ghana 26,378 30,936 40,05651 Mozambique 23,526 28,012 38,83752 Malaysia 27,911 31,326 37,85053 Syrian Arab Republic 23,206 27,410 36,34554 Poland 38,035 37,254 33,37055 Cameroon 20,226 23,986 32,28456 Côte d'Ivoire 21,529 25,024 32,18557 Spain 39,018 37,395 31,28258 Malawi 15,656 19,544 31,11459 Ukraine 43,335 39,569 29,95960 Cambodia 18,585 22,310 29,88361 Zambia 14,796 19,026 29,26262 Dem. People's Rep. of Korea 24,396 25,872 28,03863 Chad 12,376 16,383 27,73264 Guatemala 16,329 19,624 26,55165 Australia 1 21,910 23,523 26,50266 Zimbabwe 16,368 18,672 23,54667 Sri Lanka 21,451 22,529 23,06668 Chile 17,912 19,548 22,73269 Senegal 13,516 16,511 22,71170 Guinea 11,300 14,120 20,71171 Burundi 9,835 12,390 20,21872 Rwanda 10,504 12,883 18,52373 Romania 21,437 20,585 18,15074 Benin 9,448 11,992 18,07075 Bolivia 11,218 13,131 16,96676 Netherlands 16,420 16,571 15,84577 Kazakhstan 15,957 16,090 15,30278 Liberia 5,550 7,638 14,37079 Sierra Leone 7,115 9,052 14,35180 Tunisia 11,257 12,343 14,07681 Haiti 10,215 11,549 13,98282 Honduras 8,703 10,106 12,84583 Paraguay 7,773 9,355 12,56584 Togo 6,576 8,219 11,83285 Occupied Palestinian Terr. 5,317 7,145 11,82186 Jordan 7,191 8,666 11,70987 Nicaragua 7,216 8,606 11,47788 Lao Peoples's Dem. Republic 7,334 8,721 11,438

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89 Papua New Guinea 6,642 8,023 10,98090 El Salvador 7,979 8,975 10,85591 Cuba 11,644 11,733 10,76492 Congo 4,730 6,284 10,74493 Israel 7,714 8,486 10,06594 Eritrea 5,720 7,063 10,02895 Libyan Arab Jamahiriya 7,058 7,972 9,96996 Tajikistan 7,097 8,066 9,76397 China,Hong kong SAR 2 8,025 8,678 9,64898 Belgium 10,272 10,205 9,58399 Yugoslavia 10,309 10,044 9,030100 Portugal 10,030 9,831 9,006101 Greece 10,472 10,149 8,983102 Azerbaijan 8,725 9,076 8,897103 Oman 4,110 5,411 8,751104 Czech Republic 10,028 9,727 8,429105 Turkmenistan 6,059 6,844 8,401106 Belarus 9,664 9,335 8,305107 Central African Republic 4,877 5,886 8,195108 Sweden 8,625 8,518 7,777109 Kyrgyzstan 5,836 6,460 7,538

110Pakisungary 9,254 8,783 7,486

111 Costa Rica 5,233 5,929 7,195112 Austria 7,848 7,605 6,452113 Switzerland 6,972 6,729 5,607114 Bhutan 3,070 3,843 5,569115 Ireland 4,410 4,745 5,366116 Denmark 5,372 5,359 5,080117 Lebanon 4,219 4,581 5,018118 Norway 4,670 4,800 4,880119 Puerto Rico 4,390 4,615 4,835120 Finland 5,180 5,138 4,693121 Slovakia 5,420 5,317 4,674122 Singapore 4,756 4,998 4,620123 Bulgaria 6,816 6,125 4,531124 New Zealand 4,141 4,302 4,439125 Panama 3,451 3,779 4,262126 Uruguay 3,670 3,871 4,249127 Croatia 4,622 4,519 4,179128 Mongolia 3,085 3,478 4,146129 Kuwait 2,766 3,219 4,001

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130 Albania 3,439 3,676 3,905131 Jamaica 2,957 3,264 3,815132 United Arab Emirates 3,230 3,468 3,709133 Namibia 2,313 2,776 3,662134 Republic of Moldova 4,152 4,052 3,577135 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4,279 4,165 3,458136 Guinea-Bissau 1,727 2,170 3,276137 Georgia 4,775 4,377 3,219138 Gabon 1,757 2,178 3,164139 Armenia 3,808 3,736 3,150140 Lithuania 3,538 3,418 2,989141 Gambia 1,781 2,077 2,605142 Lesotho 2,141 2,225 2,478143 Botswana 1,694 1,826 2,109144 Comoros 1,067 1,327 1,900145 TFYR Macedonia 8 2,075 2,067 1,894146 Latvia 2,225 2,090 1,744147 Slovenia 1,926 1,847 1,527148 Solomon Islands 719 943 1,458149 Mauritius 1,301 1,374 1,426150 Swaziland 1,022 1,138 1,391151 Equatorial Guinea 692 889 1,378152 Trinidad and Tobago 1,392 1,437 1,378153 Djibouti 703 801 1,068154 Bahrain 793 887 1,008155 Reunion 845 911 1,002156 Fiji 925 954 916157 Cyprus 864 899 910158 Maldives 453 580 868159 Qatar 693 754 831160 Cape Verde 567 647 807161 Estonia 1,190 1,062 752162 Luxembourg 518 576 715163 Western Sahara 368 438 599164 Brunei Darussalam 417 473 565165 China, Macao SAR 3 499 529 527166 Guyana 749 703 504167 French Guiana 255 326 503168 Guadeloupe 471 487 479169 Vanuatu 282 342 462170 Bahamas 359 393 449171 Suriname 437 442 418172 Martinique 410 421 413

36

173 Malta 411 418 400174 New Caledonia 178 316 397175 Belize 287 324 392176 French Polynesia 288 318 372177 Iceland 305 319 333178 Guam 209 242 307179 Sao Tome and Principe 178 208 294180 Micronesia (Fed. state of) 172 204 269181 Barbados 281 285 263182 Netherlands Antilles 242 255 259183 Aruba 157 194 242184 Samoa 179 200 223185 Northern Mariana Islands 124 157 216186 Andorra 146 181 193187 Saint Lucia 169 179 189188 American Samoa 104 129 172189 United States Virgin Islands 140 151 167190 Seychelles 97 110 145191 Kiribati 100 112 138192 Saint Vincent and Grenadines 123 129 138193 Tonga 105 110 125194 Channel Islands 143 139 120195 Grenada 97 100 105196 Cayman Islands 59 72 89197 Marshall Islands 62 69 85198 Isle of Man 83 84 81199 Bermuda 69 73 79200 Antigua and Barbuda 68 70 73201 Dominica 70 70 72202 Greenland 58 59 62203 Faroe Islands 52 55 55204 British Virgin Islands 32 35 39205 Liechtenstein 37 39 39206 Turks and Caicos Islands 26 31 39207 Palau 26 30 39208 Monaco 37 39 38209 Saint Kitts and Nevis 35 34 34210 San Marino 31 32 30211 Cook Islands 22 23 27212 Nauru 17 20 26213 Anguilla 16 19 23214 Gibraltar 26 25 21215 Wallis and Futuna Islands 16 17 19

37

216 Tuvalu 12 14 16217 Montserrat 6 7 11218 Saint Helena 7 7 8 10219 Saint Pierre and Miqueleon 8 8 9220 Falkland Islands 3 3 4221 Niue 2 2 2222 Holy See 4 1 1 1223 Tokelau 1 1 1224 Pitcairn 6 0 0 0225 Dominican Republic N/A N/A N/A226 East Timor N/A N/A N/A227 Ecuador N/A N/A N/A

38

Unawareness of the consequences and irrational thinking

Shyness and fear to approach doctor

Traditional Barriers

Early Marriages

Desire for a male child

Gender Inequality

Immigration

Health Effects

Social Problems

Polygamy

Old age Security

Overall decrease in standard

of living

Lack of skilled labor

Economic Problems

Agrarian land require more labor

the problem in developing countries

Pressure on agriculture

Deforestation/Desertification

Vertical Housing schemes

Decrease in capacity of roads to

carry motor vehicles

Demographic Transitions

External Migrations

Psychological Issues

Status Inequality

Fear of Infant mortality increases

fertility rates.

Improvement in technology

Rapid Expansion of Agriculture

Improvement in public health

Decrease in education level, due to

Decrease in health standards, due to

Religious and Ideological

Conservativeness

Allah is the Provider

39