13 · 13 // overview equities 3 chart 2 chart 3 chart 4 strong uptrend channel remains intact and...
TRANSCRIPT
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
2
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW EQUITIES 3
Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
Strong uptrend channel remains intact and TEMA is bullish. Volatility
is low, No weekly exhaustion signals generated on Volstall.
Upside momentum is waning. Volstall exhaustion signal in place as index
tests recent highs. Divergence in place on the Fisher Transform.
Long term uptrend still in effect and TEMA remains bullish. No signs of
exhaustion present on weekly timeframe. Like S&P the Eurostoxx is consolidating around previous high. Bearish
divergence on Fisher and negative Volstall signal suggest near term
exhaustion.
1. Blue/red signals from Volstall indicator 2. Painted bars from triple moving average crossover 3. Lower panel is Fisher Transform with Squeeze
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW FIXED INCOME 4
Chart 1 Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
Currently testing long term uptrend support. Volstall signal and
bullish divergence on the Fisher suggests support will hold but
move higher is likely to be counter trend.
Strong move higher in past few weeks has broken near term downtrend.
Recent highs around 127 level could act as resistance. Break above
these levels would open up a target of 130. Fisher at extreme levels.
TEMA is negative as price trend has shifted to down. No exhaustion
signals present yet on weekly chart.
Bounce of bottom of price channel coincided with a Volstall signal.
TEMA has also turned positive. Downtrend channel likely to provide
resistance. Extreme Fisher reading above 3. 1. Blue/red signals from Volstall indicator 2. Painted bars from triple moving average crossover 3. Lower panel is Fisher Transform with Squeeze
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW FX 5
Chart 1 Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
Trend remains up however Euro is now testing horizontal resistance.
Volstall signal suggests it may be losing momentum. Volstall exhaustion signal coupled with bearish divergence on the
Fisher suggest that the Euro could struggle to break out of the range.
Sterling is testing its long term downtrend resistance. TEMA is bullish
and no signs of exhaustion yet. May test key resistance at 1.64 level.
Fisher reading of 3 is a new 12 month high.
Sterling continues to drive sharply higher. Daily Volstall exhaustion signal
is present. Rally potentially losing steam. One more surge higher to test
52 week high of 1.6381 is possible. Divergence from extreme on Fisher.
1. Blue/red signals from Volstall indicator 2. Painted bars from triple moving average crossover 3. Lower panel is Fisher Transform with Squeeze
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW COMMODITIES 6
Chart 1 Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
Pulling back from strong breakout back above the key psychological
$100 level. TEMA no longer bullish. Wait to see if $100 level acts as
support.
Volstall exhaustion signals and strong bearish divergence on Fisher
accompanied the recent high. TEMA trend signal is now negative.
Currently testing near term uptrend support.
Key $300 support level held once more. Copper now grinding higher
and TEMA has turned bullish however move higher still looks counter
trend.
Copper trying to grind higher but failed at near term resistance c.$340
which was marked with a Volstall signal. Potentially trying to form a base
but yet to show strong upside momentum. Range is $300-$340.
1. Blue/red signals from Volstall indicator 2. Painted bars from triple moving average crossover 3. Lower panel is Fisher Transform with Squeeze
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW PRECIOUS METALS 7
Chart 1 Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
Gold managed to bounce sharply from test of $1200 level. Long term
downtrend still in effect. TEMA is negative once more.
Recent ascending channel has been broken to the downside and
TEMA is negative once more. Potential right shoulder of inverse head
and shoulder forming but retest of lows not out of the question.
Near term downtrend broken but longer term downtrend resistance yet
to be tested. Bounce higher from lows appears to have run out of
steam. TEMA has turned negative once more. Retest of lows possible.
Near term downtrend channel has been broken. Clear Volstall
exhaustion signals suggest counter trend move higher may have ended.
TEMA is negative once more. Previous downtrend may provide support.
1. Blue/red signals from Volstall indicator 2. Painted bars from triple moving average crossover 3. Lower panel is Fisher Transform with Squeeze
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW VOLATILITY 8
Chart 1 Chart 2
Chart 3 Chart 4
FX implied volatility reversed its 2nd quarter rise and reverted beyond
the mean to the -3 SD band. Realized volatility (like in rates) is trending
lower.
U.S. Treasury implied volatility spiked higher for the second quarter in a
row as rates are searching for a bottom. The Q3 spike, however, did not
breach the +2 SD band and made a lower high.
U.S. equity implied volatility made a seasonal summer low below 12 in
August before quickly reverting to the +2 SD band. The bands are
tightening as the last spike was well below the 2nd quarter highs.
Take the Syria spike out and it was a quiet quarter for the implied
volatility of options on the United States Oil Fund ETF. That spike (and
the price of oil) quickly reverted back inside a tight range.
4. Volatility bands
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW VOLATILITY 9
Comments…
Conclusions
Chart 1
Chart 3
Below is a normalized chart of the past quarter of the relative
volatility of all five asset classes covered in this section. Implied
volatility was lower in Q3 relative to Q2 across all asset classes.
After a relatively volatile Q2, both gold and FX implied volatility have
consistently trended lower in Q3. The implied volatility of U.S.
Treasuries has seen several peaks and troughs in Q3 as investors
reached for protection against rising yields.
The VIX is ending Q3 near its highs as the second round of selling
hits U.S. equities this quarter – possibly as investors rotate back into
Europe and Emerging Markets. Oil volatility remained bid during Q3
thanks to renewed tensions in the Middle East.
There are early signs that suggest volatility will rise between now and
the end of year. Perhaps it will be most visible in Equities, Currencies
and Oil rather than the uncharacteristic relative spike in the volatility
of bonds and gold seen last quarter.
The implied volatility of options on SPDR Gold Trust ETF fell sharply
into a tight trading range after spiking three times in Q2. The bands
are tightening to match much tighter ranges in gold futures.
4. Volatility bands
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW ASSET CLASS TRENDS 10
It has been a strong quarter for every asset class other than fixed income as we have seen strong performances from
equities, precious metals, Sterling and the Euro. Fixed income continues to trend lower however the US Ten Year was
practically flat over the quarter. However, the increasing correlation between these asset classes is a cause for concern.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
OVERVIEW ASSET CLASS TRENDS 11
Precious metals and Copper have outperformed significantly on a relative basis over the quarter, albeit from a very low base
given the weakness year to date. Oil is still outperforming over the longer term but is showing weakness in the past few weeks.
Bonds have stabilised but are yet to show signs of strength. While both the S&P 500 and Eurostoxx are outperforming it is
interesting that over the past few weeks the Eurostoxx is improving versus the S&P 500 both in terms of relative price and
relative momentum.
6. Relative Rotation GraphsTM
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS 12
6. Relative Rotation GraphsTM
Emerging markets have been outperforming on a relative basis with the BRICs ex India looking good. South American markets
like Brazil, Colombia and Mexico are outperforming while South East Asian markets look weak. Meanwhile, European markets
look to be improving relative to US markets. In particular the peripheral European markets such as Spain, Italy and Greece
have been strong. It seems the bias towards US equities that was seen in H1 is now reversing as risk appetite increases.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS 13
With the decrease in volatility and increase in risk appetite seen over the past few months we can see that frontier, emerging and
European peripheral markets have outperformed developed markets. This is exemplified by the Spanish IBEX, Greek ASE,
Argentinian MERVAL and the Dubai DFMGI which have all outperformed significantly both over the quarter and the past 12
months. Of these in relation to the colour the turquoise colour seen for the DFMGI highlights its high volatility relative to the purple
of the IBEX. The large size of the markers in the top right hand corner highlights the strong relative RSI momentum of these indices.
The Brazilian IBOV despite being the worst performer over one year is showing dramatic improvement over the past quarter. The
pink colour and small market of the UKX Index shows low volatility and weak short term momentum. 7. Scatter plot chart
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS (BREADTH) 14
The Brazilian Ibovespa made a bottom in July 2013 that had several
bullish market breadth divergences. The low in the price action actually
saw higher lows from % of RSI lows, % of MACD members above the
base, % new lows and % of members above key moving averages.
Notice by contrast how the recent price failure at the 200 day moving
average did not have many bearish divergence signals suggesting
potential for further upside.
8. Market breadth indicators
The Eurostoxx 600 has broken to new all time highs during the month
of September. However, if we look at the internal strength of the index
using market breadth measures it highlights potential weakness. We
see several bearish divergences, the % members above the 50
moving average, the % of members overbought on RSI and the %
with MACD above the base line all recorded lower readings for the
September high than the previous high made in August.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS (BREADTH) 15
Looking at the Market Breadth figures across the globe we can see that almost all indices are registering extreme bullish readings. This is exemplified
by the high percentages of securities above 200 day moving averages and virtually non existent 12 week lows. However, if we look at the number of
12 week highs and percentage of stocks above the 50 day moving averages we can see some short term weakness. This suggests some of these
markets may be in the process of correcting. Although it could also be a sign that there is room for another spike higher. Either way the longer term
divergences between new highs on several major indices versus lower highs on breadth indicators suggest we are at the latter stages of a bull run.
8. Market breadth indicators
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
RATES AND INFLATION 16
Interest rates along the curve have again risen in both the US (left) and Euro (right) swap curves over the last 3 months, in
quite a parallel fashion. However, with respect to the previous quarter, the extent of the increase in both regions has been less
pronounced.
9. Implied forward curves 10. Historical curves
Despite a rally in the second half of September, the benchmark US (black) and European (orange) CDS indices are generally
maintaining their 2 year downward trend, thus continuing to imply less perceived risk. The spread between the two (lower
panel) has narrowed towards the 2 year low reflecting that the perception of Europe has improved more in the last quarter.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
RATES AND INFLATION 17
10 year breakevens for US, Germany and UK have all exhibited slight upward trends in Q3 having fallen in the previous
quarter. This would seem to support the slightly bullish view on inflation implied by the inflation gauges above and the rising
interest rate curves on the previous page.
11. Inflation indicators
Despite drops in Gold and Crude in September, on a normalized scale, all gauges of inflation in the chart above are positive for
the last quarter.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
FX 18
There is a large divergence for EUR (top) between the 25D Risk
Reversal, which has not risen in line with the Spot, and the net
large speculator position which is distinctly the most positive in has
been in the last year. With GBP, both the Risk Reversal and net
speculator have turned positive for the first time since mid Q1.
Analyst forecasts for both EUR (top) and GBP are far more negative
than the 3 month implied probabilities. The forecast distribution for
EUR peaks around 1.2948 with a heavy left tail as opposed to
c.1.3540 for the implied probability distribution. For GBP these
values are roughly 1.55 and 1.618 respectively. Interestingly, in both
cases the analyst forecast is at the minimum of the 1 standard
deviation implied probability range.
12. Sentiment and positioning 13. Implied probability forecast
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
FX 19
The chart above uses the Bloomberg Correlation Weighted Indices from the BCWI page. The NZD and GBP indices show the
clearest signs of an upward trend having risen very strongly over the past year, but also over the last 3 months. The EUR index
has the best 3 month performance and its pink colour implies that it has the lowest 60D volatility of the group. The JPY index
shows the strongest downward trend, being the worst performer over 1 year and the 2nd worst, after the USD index, over 3
months. Its turquoise hue also tells that it has the highest volatility. The size of the spheres show that the NZD, GBP and CHF
indices have the strongest short term momentum, based on a 14D RSI, and the NOK, USD and CAD indices the weakest.
7. Scatter plot chart
USD
CAD
AUD
JPY
NOK
SEK
GBP NZD
EUR CHF
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
COMMODITIES 20
Precious metals have made a dramatic recovery over the past quarter but have yet to move into the leading quadrant.
Crude Oil while still a relative outperformer has seen a significant drop in momentum on recent relative price weakness.
Cocoa and soybean continue to outperform while sugar is improving. Industrial metals; Copper, Nickel and Aluminum and
are showing signs of strength.
6. Relative Rotation GraphsTM
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
COMMODITIES 21
Cotton is the strong outperformer over the past 12 months. It is exhibiting strong momentum (size of marker) yet still has
moderate levels of volatility suggesting the uptrend is strong and orderly. Cocoa is showing similar strength especially over the
last quarter. Silver, despite recent improvement over the past quarter, is still down significantly over 12 months and has the
highest level of 60D volatility out of all the CRY Index components. Corn and Coffee have been the weakest performers over
the past quarter, accompanied by weak relative momentum and above average levels of volatility.
7. Scatter plot chart
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
BRIEF MARKET SPOTLIGHT 22
The Dollar Index has broken below its weekly cloud and uptrend support. It looks
set to test three key support areas; cloud versus lag = 79.412 (orange), 52 week
low of 78.918 (blue), and bottom of monthly cloud = 78.853 (red). Due to the
steepening of the Cloud versus the lag over the next month the Dollar Index must
bounce back above 80.719 to avoid generating a weekly Ichimoku sell signal.
Above is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 mini future with a
potential Elliott Wave count applied. Starting with the multi -
year low in 2009 we have counted a wave one impulse to
the 2010 high with the following correction during 2010
forming wave 2. From this 2010 low we have counted a
large impulsive wave 3 higher that looks to be completing
sub wave v of 3 of 3 of 3.
This would suggest a correction is imminent. The top of
the channel c.1800 should cap any final surge higher
however it may not be tested by the current move. Notice
the bearish divergence on the 9 period RSI which shows
upside momentum is waning.
The bottom of the uptrend channel c.1500 should
provide support and could be a good potential downside
target for a correction. The rule of alternation would
suggest it will be a triangle pattern as wave 2 of 3 of 3 was
an a-b-c correction.
Given the rules of Elliott Wave Theory we would expect
that this correction would not breach the high of wave 1 of 3
of 3 (marked by the red dashed line) made on September
14th 2012 (1474.75).
US Dollar Index
Weekly Ichimoku Chart
S&P 500 E-Mini Future – Weekly Chart
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
BRIEF MARKET SPOTLIGHT 23
US Equities outperformed most global indices during the first half of
2013, this trend now it looks to be reversing. Above we can see that
the ratios of S&P 500 versus the Eurostoxx 600 (blue) and the S&P
500 versus the Emerging Market ETF (orange) topped out in July and
have since reversed course (all based in USD). This reversal has
been confirmed by the respective implied volatilities. Notice how the
ratio of the S&P 500 VIX versus the CBOE Emerging Markets ETF
Volatility Index have also reversed trend since July.
In light of the theme of Emerging Market outperformance that transpired
from the equity Relative Rotation Graph (page 12), it is interesting to
note that on a non-relative logarithmic scale, all 4 BRIC countries are at
or near long term trend line lows. Of these the trend line is clearest and
steepest for Brazil which to a large extent mirrors the long-term trends in
other Latin American markets.
S&P 500 Relative Strength Charts BRICs – LT Trends
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 24
Volstall Stop and Reverse
In the Market Overview section
the blue and red signals come
from our proprietary Volstall
indicator.
This indicator, created in
STDY<GO>, employs a rate of
change of a moving standard
deviation of price. The rate of
change has to initially be above a
certain level to validate a trend
already been in place. The signal
then occurs at the point when the
rate of change starts to slow. This
implies that momentum is
decreasing and thus heightens
the possibility of a reversal.
The bars on the chart were
painted by creating what is
referred to as a Strategy Event.
To build a similar strategy select
the Events tab on a Bloomberg
chart, then select Add Even;
Browse; Strategies and Studies;
My Global Strategies.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 25
14. Strategy creation and backtesting
This is where one can create a new strategy. See the example below. The first condition for a buy is that the
Volatility ROC from Volstall must cross below its one day lagged value (hence implying that it has turned down).
The second condition is that the Volatility ROC must be greater than 20% as mentioned previously to validate an
existing trend. Thirdly we use RSI as a filter for the direction of the reversal. It must be less than 50 for a buy
signal as such a reading renders the existing trend bearish. For the sell signal the conditions are the same but for
the RSI which must be greater than 50. .
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 26
14. Strategy creation and backtesting
The idea behind Volstall originates from
Bloomberg‟s Trendstall indicator. The
cornerstone of Trendstall is the ADX from
Wilder‟s DMI indicator, shown in panel 2,
which increases as a trend strengthens.
When it turns down it signifies that the trend
is losing momentum (often coinciding with a
reversal). However, as a derivative, the ADX
does not lead the trend change. Hence
Trendstall applies a rate of change to the
ADX to measure the loss of acceleration in
the trend earlier and anticipate the trend.
Like the ADX, standard deviation is also
symbolic of trend strength as the stronger
the slope of the trend the wider the
distribution of the prices must be. By
observing the Bollinger Bandwidth, panel 3,
which is the distance between the upper and
lower Bollinger Bands and thus a proxy for
standard deviation, we observed that
standard deviation may be more sensitive to
trend changes than the ADX. Thus we
substituted the ADX for standard deviation
in the Trendstall calculation to create
Volstall. The blue histogram in panel 4
shows the rate of change of the standard
deviation that forms Volstall and the black
line is the 1 period lag used to identify the
slope of the histogram turns negative.
The corresponding buy and sell signals are the gold and silver
stars on the price panel. It tends to work particularly well for swing
trading as it both requires that trends can form in order to generate
the signals but also an element of mean reversion so that when the
signals form momentum is not regained in the direction of the
preceding trend.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 27
14. Strategy creation and backtesting
When backtesting Volstall
using the BT<GO> function on
the Bloomberg terminal we
have recreated the same rules
used when creating the
strategy event for the chart.
However we have also added
two additional rules for better
money and risk management; a
4% take profit level and also a
2% stop loss. Should a reversal
signal come in before the take
profit or stop loss the trade will
be stopped and reversed.
Analysing the Simulation Control tab we can
see that the system is testing daily data over
the past three years. It is trading both long and
short and committing 100% of capital to each
trade. On this page it is possible to change the
periodicity and the timeframe for the test. The
initial capital can also be adjusted. Notice that
no slippage or commission has been added for
this example.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
STRATEGY IN BRIEF 28
14. Strategy creation and backtesting
The results above are for aforementioned strategy on GBPUSD over the last three years on a daily timeframe. The
average win was 2.95k against an average loss of 1.92k but what is all the more impressive is that over two thirds of
the trades were profitable resulting in a Profit factor of 3.20 and a Sharpe Ratio of 1.96.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
EXPERT BRIEFING 29
Adam Sorab is Head of Technical
Research at CQS, a $12 billion
hedge fund management
company. Previous roles include
Director of Absolute Return
Strategies at Deutsche Asset
Management, founding member of
CSFB’s hedge fund operation -
the Leveraged Funds Group, and
currency and interest rates
derivatives at Schroders. He is a
former President of IFTA and a
Fellow and former Chairman of
the UK Society of Technical
Analysts (STA).
How would you describe who you
are and what you do?
I am a hedge fund manager that
deploys technical analysis as part of
our investment process. I am also a
former President of the International
Federation of Technical Analysts and
a Fellow and former Chairman of the
British Society of Technical Analysts.
What attracted you to the financial
markets?
I graduated from the London School
of Economics and walked along
Fleet Street to the City to get my first
job in Banking in the early 80‟s.
Within a couple of years I was
posted to the Dealing Room and
initially got involved in money
markets before going on to
becoming a prop trader in FX and
interest rate derivative markets. In
the early 90‟s I got into the hedge
fund industry and have stayed in this
sector since then.
Please describe your approach to
understanding the markets, do
you use technical analysis,
fundamental analysis or both,
please explain why?
I try to use fundamental analysis to
understand the economic drivers
behind markets and securities. I
then use technical analysis to spot
trends and their turns, to identify
entry and exit levels and to highlight
other key behavioural market
features that can further support my
investment and risk management
decisions. We also use other
approaches such a quantitative
methods to optimise portfolio
allocations and hedges.
What technical analysis
techniques, if any, do you favour?
I favour most traditional methods
and tend to focus on price patterns,
candlestick analysis and classic
support and resistance approaches
rather than the use of lots of
indicators. I also like to use Elliott
Wave at times to put each market
into context. I further like to use TD
counts to highlight possible
reversals. In truth, there are many
techniques available and while I tend
to stick to a handful of old favourites,
I will also drill into ideas using other
more “modern” approaches in certain
cases.
Do you use automated systems or
rely on judgment?
Always judgement. No automated
trading systems deployed.
What timeframes do you favour,
historical, intraday or a
combination of both?
I like to use multiple time frames in
combination. (Yearly, Quarterly,
Monthly, Daily and Hourly).
.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
EXPERT BRIEFING 30
What are the key statistics to
consider when evaluating one?
No I don‟t use a trading system. If I
did, I would look to stats like Total
Net Profit, Profit Factor (gross profit
divided by the gross loss), Percent
Profitable, Average Trade Net
Profit, Maximum drawdown and
Maximum Adverse Excursion.
What is the least important
aspect to consider when
building trading systems?
I don‟t know yet....
Do you employ portfolio
management and/or pyramiding
techniques?
Yes, they are critical elements of
trading success.
How important are drawdowns
and money management in your
opinion?
Vitally important. Capital
preservation is the foundation of all
the best investment strategies
What is your opinion/approach
to optimization?
I think it‟s over employed and adds
little value. In my view the best
techniques are robust and not
overly dependent on subtle
changes to input variables. Rather
than find an “optimal” indicator, I
prefer to find a “reliable” one.
What advice would you give to
those who are new to the
financial markets and want to
become the next Adam Sorab?
Study hard at School and be
prepared to start at the bottom and
work your way up in the City. Too
many modern day financial
professionals come from University
and go straight into financial
markets. Many fail and have to exit
ignominiously. I think it‟s important
to have a broader understanding of
our industry and so encourage
young people to go into Risk
Management, Operations,
Research etc. first before trying
their hand at trading.
Can we have the name of
someone who has impressed
you during your career?
A great many people have
impressed me over the years.
Right now my boss and mentor is
Michael Hintze. He has taught me a
great deal about markets and how
to trade them.
Is there anything you would do
differently, if you were given a
chance?
I would have studied History rather
than Economics (as in fact it‟s not
the subject, it‟s the grades and
University name that seems to
matter. I also think I was way too
contentious as a prop trader. On
reflection I should have bet the
bank every day to make full use of
the prop trader‟s option.
Is the future all into algo trading
and automated systems or does
human intuition still have a role?
I don‟t believe that algo‟s and
Computers will ever beat humans
at the trading game. I believe they
will serve a role for sure but as
humans are the best at “thinking
outside the box” so I believe there
will always be a role for non-
mechanical traders and investors.
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
APPENDIX 31 1. The red and blue signals in the Overview section are an indicator called Volstall. It is our own indicator created in STDY<GO>. It uses the
rate of change of the moving standard deviation of price to identify possible reversal points through decreasing momentum. A guide to
STDY<GO> as well as a forum can be found within red toolbar in the function.
2. In the Overview section the bars are painted according to a triple exponential moving average crossover with averages of 4, 9 and 18. The
blue and red Volstall signals and painted bars are created in the strategy events. From a chart click on the events flag ,+Add Event, Browse
then select option17) Strategies & Studies.
3. The indicator below the charts in the Overview section is the Fisher Transform with Squeeze (Indicator outlined by John F. Carter) . The
indicator uses a Gaussian probability density function as opposed to a more traditional bell-shaped probability density function to calculate
the position of the price compared to its range (see TECH<GO>). Squeeze signals are shown as red bars and occur when the Bollinger
bandwidth is less than the Keltner band with signalling low directional volatility.
4. On the volatility charts we have used Bollinger bands with a 60 period moving average with upside deviations of 1, 2, and 3. On the
downside we have used 1,1.5 and 2 standard deviations from the average, to reflect the inherent skew in volatility indices.
5. World Trend Graph can be found at WT<GO>
6. Relative Rotation Graph sTM can be found at RRG<GO>. Relative Rotation GraphsTM of Relative Rotation Graphs Limited. See
www.RelativeRotationGraph.com .Please see DOCS 2063266<GO> for more information.
7. The scatter plot chart can be found at GS<GO> and allows for the visualisation of 4 unique sets of data.
8. More information on Bloomberg‟s Market Breadth indicators across 54 different markets can be found at DOCS 2068663<GO>
9. Implied forward curves can be charted in FWCM<GO>
10. Historical curves can be charted in GC<GO>
11. An inflation indicator template and Breakeven rates can be found at ILBA<GO>
12. Sentiment and positioning data can be located at IPSP<GO>
13. Implied probability FX forecasts are derived from FX options and can be found at FXFM<GO>
14. Use BT<GO> for the creation, backtesting and optimisation of strategies. It will integrate your own custom studies built in STDY<GO> and
can also generate alerts. A guide to BT<GO> as well as a forum can be found within red toolbar in the function.
OTHER RESOURCES
• CHART<GO> is the homepage for Bloomberg charts and technical analysis with links to a variety of functions and resources including
documents on Bloomberg‟s own proprietary studies.
• „Getting Started With Bloomberg Charts‟ at DOCS 2069346<GO> for an introduction to what is possible.
• „A Guide to Bloomberg Charts‟ at DOCS 2065187<GO> for a more thorough walkthrough how to use our charting and technical analysis
functionality.
DISCLAIMER - Read the full Bloomberg Tradebook disclaimer here: http://goo.gl/UewDb
THE
QU
AR
TER
IN
BR
IEF –
Q3
2013
//
32