12 to 15 september iumi 2010 zurich facts and figures committee report cedric charpentier chairman,...
TRANSCRIPT
12 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
IUMI 2010 ZURICH
Facts and Figures Committee Report
Cedric CHARPENTIERChairman, F&F Committee
C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate SolutionsSeptember 13, 2010
212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
• Dieter Berg - Germany
• Cédric Charpentier - France, Chairman
• Darren Farr - U.K.
• Pamela Frood - U.K.
• Philip Graham - U.K.
• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland
• Henry Newman - U.S.A.
• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. & Vice Chairman
• Massimo Spadoni - Italy
Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members
312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Report of the F&F Committee Committee Members
• Javier Alonso - Spain
• Dieter Berg - Germany
• Darren Farr - U.K.
• Pamela Frood - U.K.
• Philip Graham - U.K.
• Vivian Ho - Hong Kong
• Patrizia Kern - Switzerland, Chairman
• Patrick Lecerf - France
• Henry Newman - U.S.A.
• Astrid Seltmann - Nordic, Secr. and Vice Chairman
• Massimo Spadoni - Italy
412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
• Spring StatisticsSpring Statistics Spring meetingSpring meeting
Report of the F&F Committee Documentations
• Hull, Energy and Cargo Fact SheetsHull, Energy and Cargo Fact Sheets ConferenceConference
• Global shipping market trendsGlobal shipping market trends ConferenceConference
• Global marine insurance reportGlobal marine insurance report ConferenceConference
• Hull repair cost index Working GroupHull repair cost index Working Group
512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Global Shipping Market Trends
Cedric CHARPENTIERChairman, F&F Committee
C.U.O. Cargo AXA Corporate SolutionsSeptember 13, 2010
612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Conclusion 2009 = Intro 2010
• Global tradeGlobal trade:– 2009 hit the bottom– 2010 weak recovery
• Sustainable recovery?Sustainable recovery?– still not clear where from and when
• Shipping industry:Shipping industry:– fighting for survival with at least 2 year expected depressed
market ahead– deep modification of the face of the world fleet expected– but medium and long term prospects are intact
• Numerous and deep impacts on the marine Numerous and deep impacts on the marine insurance industryinsurance industry
712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
After the sharpest decline for more than 70 years, global economy is on its way to
recovery…
812 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Sharp recovery of Global Economy expectedin 2010… but already a peak?
ANNUAL GDP GROWTH 2001 - 2011
World
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
+6,4%
+4,3%
+2,4%+2,5%
-0,6%
-3,2%
+6,8%
+4,6%
+2,6%
912 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
World Trade in volume is set to vigorouslyrebound in 2010...
Volume of World Merchandise Export2005 - 2010
Annual % Change
+ 6,0%
+ 9,5%
+ 2,1%
+ 8,5%+ 6,5%
-12,2%-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
Years
%
1012 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
..combined with the recent resurgencein Commodity prices…
REAL COMMODITIES PRICES 2001-2010
(Index 100=2005)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oil
AgriculturalRaw Mat
Metal
1112 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…result in a positive outlook for Global Trade in value terms: return to pre-crisis level in 2011?
WORLD TRADE VALUES 2001 - 2011 (in billion dollars )
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
14 000
16 000
+ 16%
- 23%
+ 16%
+ 8%
1212 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
The shipping industry reacted strongly to 2009 turmoil but short term prospects remain
challenging…
1312 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Whilst World Trade collapsed, world fleet grewby 7% in 2009 generating strong overcapacity…
WORLD MERCHANT FLEET of ships of 300gt and overEvolution of GT, DWT and Number of ships between 1995 and 2010 (1st of Jan)
Nb Ships+ 29%
mGT+ 92%
mDWT+ 81%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1412 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…and World Fleet is still expected to grow in2010 by another 7%.
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
mD
wt
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
*
World Tonnage Additions and Reductions 1999-2010* (in mDwt)
Reductions Additions
* Est. based on Q1
1512 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
The market will have to absorb 40% of existingfleet in the next 3 years…
100.1 129.3
177.8
222.8
263.5
Tankers
BulkCarriers
LNG/LPG
Container
Others
Generalcargo
460.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
mD
WT
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Apr. 20
10
ORDERBOOK - Evolution by type of shipsin million of DWT
363.8
570.4 566.7
1612 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
…resulting in a quite gloomy and unstablefreight market.
FREIGHT MARKET (indices by month) - January 2001 to April 2010
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Time Charter Index (1 to 2 months)
General Freight Index
Grain Freight Index
Index 1972 = 100
1275
177
1712 TO 15 SEPTEMBER
Conclusion
• Worldwide economy and Global Trade:Worldwide economy and Global Trade:
• Stronger recovery in 2010 than expected…
• …but uncertainty beyond :
• a strong recovery, a long lasting crisis or a double-dip?
• or all of them depending on the geographical area?
• At least 2 years to reach pre-crisis level
• Shipping industryShipping industry
• Despite strong reactions…
• …overcapacity is here to stay and casts a cloud overthe years to come for the shipping industry
• Numerous and deep impacts marine insuranceNumerous and deep impacts marine insurance