ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

May 12, 2015 Opening Bell Market OutlookTodays Highlights Results: Dr Reddys, Apollo Tyres, TV Today, Ashok Leyland, Jubilant Life Sciences, Sobha Ltd, Camlin Fine, Motherson, CARE. IIP, CPI Indian markets may open flat to negative on the back of negative US, Asian markets. The market would be keenly watching results of major auto, pharma companies. Parliament activity on GST, Land Acquisition & other important Bills will be key for any directional move in markets. Index Movement (past one month) Markets Yesterday Domesticmarketsendedpositivesoonafterthegovernment decided to ease its combative stance on MAT demand accompanied byadeclineinglobalcrudeoilprices,hopesofaratecutbythe ReserveBankofIndiawhilethelikelihoodofanormalmonsoon further boosted investor sentiments US markets ended lower after a sharp jump in treasury yields and as profit booking emerged on the heels of rally seen in past few days Key Developments 25000260002700028000290003000011-May7-May5-May30-Apr28-Apr24-Apr22-Apr20-Apr16-Apr13-Apr800082008400860088009000BSE (RHS) NSE (LHS) Close Previous Chg (%) MTD(%) YTD(%) P/E (1yr fwd)Sensex 27,507 27,105 1.5 1.8 0.0 17.1Nifty 8,325 8,192 1.6 1.8 0.5 17.0 Institutional Activity CY13 CY14 YTD CY15 Yesterday Last 5 DaysFII (| cr) 112,221 99,525 40,638 170 -4,640DII (| cr) -73,385 -30,570 10,797 329 5,214 World Indices Monthly performance Shanghai Dow Jones Kospi4,350 18,105 2,0947.4% 1.6% 0.5%Nikkei France BSE19,499 5,028 27,507-5.7%11,673-5.2% -1.4% -4.1% -4.8%8,325NSE GermanyNasdaq U.K.4,994 7,0300.0% -0.8% ThePower Ministryhas receivedbidsfromgas-basedpower plants likeLancoInfratech,GMREnergy,TorrentPower,GVKPowerand RatnagiriThermalPowerwithcombinedstrandedcapacityof8,000 MW,seekingsubsidyunderthePowerSystemDevelopmentFund forimportednaturalgas,fortheirpowerplantsthathavestopped production due to unavailability of the fuel For Q4FY15, Mahindra CIEs revenues came in at | 414 crore against expectations of | 477 crore, vs. | 378 crore QoQ. The company has merged all its entities. Hence, the numbers are not comparable on a YoY basis. PAT came in at | 32 crore vs. expectations of | 16 crore mainly due to a tax rebate DrReddy'sQ4FY15revenuesmaygrow~15%YoYmainlydueto 30%growthintheUSbusinessonthebackofgValcyteexclusivity andconsolidationoftheHabitrolbusiness.WeexpectEBITDA margins to expand 355 bps to 26% due to a better product mix BoBreporteditsPATat|598crore.Thoughbelowestimate,asset qualitysurprisedpositivelywithGNPAdecliningQoQto3.72%vs. 3.85% adding just | 1359 crore as slippages. NIM declined to 2.17% vs. 2.2% QoQ. Overall it is positive Nifty Heat Map Markets Today Vedanta Ltd169.717.0%Bank of BarodaACC5.7%Hindalco142.52.6% 2.6%HDFC Ltd3.4%1,226.1Sun Pharma230.31,499.0Grasim Ind964.43,556.81.8%3.5%1.8%844.4 Power GridPNBTata Motors276.15.4%529.7SBI2.3%3.1%149.1143.02.2% 2.1%Maruti3,651.7Tech M.1.9% 2.1%1.6%Asian Paints1,993.7771.71.6%InfosysNTPC Yes BankAmbuja CementGAIL373.1United Spirits3,369.91.2% 1.1%TCS631.3 Tata powerUltratech2,823.84.7%2.8%Tata Steel377.11.1%Indusind Bank145.0 ICICI Bank210.074.31.8%Cairn India1.1%1.5%323.52.8%2,384.33.6%Bajaj Auto2,182.4Hero Moto1,339.11.1%2.3% 2.3%Coal India372.02.1%238.5Axis Bank551.1990.3 Kotak Bank666.11.8% 1.7%2,556.0132.0HCL Tech941.9Cipla0.3%Dr Reddy3,359.70.4% 0.4%750.81.2%BHEL M&M1,194.31.4%234.7319.0171.10.8% 0.7% 0.7%819.71.1%ONGCNMDCHDFC BankWipro541.5Lupin0.9%0.6%896.0IDEAL&T1,615.30.2% 0.0% -0.4% -0.5%RIL0.7%326.5IDFC160.8BPCL1,769.9 864.7-3.4%Bharti Airtel396.2ITC HULs Close Previous Change (%) MTD(%) YTD(%)CommoditiesGold (|/10 gm) 27,028 27,125 -0.4 0.5 0.0Silver (|/kg) 37,434 37,326 0.3 -0.1 2.5Crude ($/barrel) 64.7 64.9 -0.3 -3.1 12.9Copper ($/tonne) NA NA NA 0.1 0.0CurrencyUSD/INR 63.86 63.94 -0.1 -0.7 -1.3EUR/USD 1.12 1.12 0.0 -0.6 -7.8USD/YEN 120.16 120.08 0.1 -0.6 -0.3ADRsHDFC Bank 56.6 57.0 -0.7 -4.8 12.4ICICI Bank 10.8 10.7 0.6 NA NATata Motors 42.0 42.6 -1.4 -6.6 2.0Infosys 31.3 31.2 0.3 -12.7 -0.8Dr Reddys Labs 53.0 53.0 0.0 -12.4 5.1 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Key Data PointsExchange Cash Turnover (| crore) 3,0803,1483,5653,1822,9602,71916,36217,21920,65417,67616,75816,38305000100001500020000250004-May 5-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 11-MayBSE Cash NSE Cash

NSE Derivative Turnover (| crore) Key Domestic Economic Indicator Period Release Date Latest Values Prior ValuesFed Fiscal Deficit Apr 29-May - --Current Account Q4 02~13Mar -8.2bln $ -10.1bln $Exports - USD Apr 11~15May - 23.95bln $FX Reserves, USD Final w/e 15-May - 351.87bln $GDP Quarterly yy Q4 29-May - 7.50%GDP Annual 12M 30-May 4.70% 4.50%Imports - USD Apr 11~15May - 35.74bln $Industrial Output yy Mar 12-May - 5.00%Manufacturing Output Mar 12-May - 5.20%Trade Deficit - RBI Q4 02~13Mar -39.2bln $ -38.6bln $Trade Deficit Govt - USD Apr 11~15May - 11.79bln $WPI Food yy Apr 14-May - 6.30%WPI Fuel yy Apr 14-May - -12.60%WPI Inflation yy Apr 14-May - -2.33%WPI Manufacturing Inflation yy Apr 14-May - -0.19%RBI Cash Reserve Ratio N/A 07-Apr 4.00% 4.00%RBI Repo Rate N/A 07-Apr 7.50% 7.50%RBI Reverse Repo Rate N/A 07-Apr 6.50% 6.50% 169,387157,343294,267248,478212,584205,3410.00200000.00400000.004-May 5-May 6-May 7-May 8-May 11-MayNSE Derivative Sectoral IndexSectoral Performance Monthly Returns (%) Sector Close Previous Change % Change VolumeAuto 18832.2 18369.6 462.5 2.5 1178000Banks 20878.2 20389.6 488.6 2.4 15950000BSE Small Cap 11792.7 11901.4 -108.7 -0.9 66926000Capital Goods 16383.4 16192.8 190.6 1.2 8047000Consumer Durables 10186.2 9960.1 226.1 2.3 434000FMCG 8304.6 8368.1 -63.5 -0.8 1023000Healthcare 17870.6 18140.1 -269.5 -1.5 1830000IT 11397.0 11502.0 -105.0 -0.9 1254000Metals 10203.0 9952.6 250.4 2.5 4444000Mid Cap 10993.0 11070.8 -77.7 -0.7 64406000Oil & Gas 9355.9 9240.0 115.9 1.3 1076000Power 2063.6 2031.8 31.8 1.6 12211000PSU 7620.5 7444.1 176.4 2.4 22575000Real Estate 1603.5 1589.3 14.2 0.9 8163000 -10.3-7.6-6.8-6.3-4.9-4.4-3.4-3.31.2-12.0 -10.0 -8.0 -6.0 -4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0Real EstateCapital GoodsPowerConsumer DurablesAutoPSUBanksOil & GasMetals(%) Key News for Today Company/Industry News View ImpactGulf Oil Lubricants Gulf Oil International (Mauritius) Inc, a promotergroup entity of Gulf Oil Lubricants India, hasincreased its stake in the company to 64.94%from 62.5% by acquiring shares in the openmarket through block dealsThe increase in stake shows theconfidence of the promoters in thecompany. It would have a positiveimpact on the stock price ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Sensex ChartTechnical Outlook We said, "Positive bias...larger positive options possibleifthelastfallgetsretracedfaster..." TheindexgappedupaboveFridayand holdingtheYellowsupportline,gained further,tofinish402pointsor1.4%higher. ExceptFMCG,mostothersectorsendedwith gains. PSU banks outperformed while the A/D ratio ended positive 3:1. The action formed another Bull candle, with a smallgap-upareabelowitsbottom.Thebias willremainpositiveonhigherhigh-lowafter bouncing from the lower Grey channel. "Faster retracement" and strength above 27604 today, followedbydipsholdinghigherlows,would be positive for eventually testing upper end of the Grey falling channel. Otherwise not. Pivot Points CNX Nifty Technical Picture SENSEX 27507.30 27467.45 27389.20 27623.95 27804.70 +veNIFTY8325.25 8309.75 8282.70 8363.80 8414.00 +veACC1498.95 1491.90 1476.25 1523.25 1532.90 +veADANI ENTER. 707.15 704.55 699.20 715.25 726.20 +veADANI PORT 344.05 343.05 341.05 347.00 352.00 +veADITYA BIRLA 1868.15 1853.85 1839.10 1883.35 1898.10 NeutralALLAHABAD BANK 102.70 102.25 101.15 104.40 105.65 +veAMBUJA CEMENT238.50 237.30 235.10 241.75 243.90 +veAMTEK AUTO 153.40 153.45 152.25 155.90 159.25 +veANDHRA BANK77.80 77.45 76.60 79.10 79.90 +veAPOLLO HOSP.ENT. 1250.60 1245.70 1220.25 1296.65 1302.85 +veAPOLLO TYRES 170.95 170.15 168.30 173.85 175.20 +veARVIND 256.65 256.00 254.15 259.70 263.10 +veASHOK LEYLAND74.30 73.55 72.25 76.20 77.25 +veASIAN PAINTS 771.65 769.10 763.05 781.25 786.70 +veAUROBINDO PHARMA1362.80 1353.05 1334.80 1389.50 1410.85 +veAXIS BANK551.10 549.90 547.70 554.35 560.10 +veBAJAJ AUTO 2182.40 2175.65 2160.10 2206.75 2233.35 +veNifty Intraday Short TermTrendUp Range boundTrend Reversal 8190 0Support 8220-8190 8000Resistance 8270-8310 835020 Days EMA 0 8347200 days EMA 0 8182Advances / Declines Advances Declines UnchangedBSE 1758 971 102NSE 1045 436 73Daily Technical Calls 1. Buy ACC above 1508.002. Buy Tata Chemical above 445-4463. Sell Dabur India below 258.50*All recommendations are of May Future See Momentum Pick for more detailsNifty Call Put Strike (No. of shares in lakh) May 2014Intraday Derivative Strategy Buy ASIPAI May Fut at 780.00-784.00View: BullishStrategy: Buy FutureTarget 1: 794 Target 2:807Stop Loss: 766Market Lot: 250CMP : 778Sell DLFLIM May Fut at 132.50-133.00View: BearishStrategy: Sell FutureTarget 1: 131.25Target 2:128.20Stop Loss: 134.75Market Lot: 2000 CMP : 131.5027 39 48 31 32 20 8 7 2 571213364652522660.0 40.0 20.0 0.020.040.060.0 870086008500840083008200810080007900Put Call See Daily Derivatives for more detailsICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Results/Events Calendar 17 16AprilLIC Housing FinanceApril AprilFridayDCB Bank Reliance Industries WPI IndiaSaturda02518April00Persistent SystemsyWednesdayHCL Tech, Wipro, Just Dial020TuesdayManu (SIC) Production USFridayVST, Symphony, Gujrat GasApril AprilHindustan ZincPersistant Systerms0PPI YoY ECIndia Imports (yoy)MayMondayHavells, India Exports (yoy)Mahindra CIETaj GVKBank of Baroda Motherson Sumi, CAREMonday04Vguard, Mangalam CementMay05MayTuesdayKotak bank, South Indian Bk0Dabur, Firstsource SolutionsHSBC Euro Manu PMI110Trade Balance US0LupinHSBC China Manu PMIHSBC India Serv PMI0 JK Tyre, Indian Bank JK Lakshi CementJSW Steel, Cox & Kings Castrol, HEG, NCC00Balkrishna Industries Nestle, Dena Bank0080 009Saturday FridayMay0AprilShree Cement,Amb Cem Bharti InfratelMarutiEPC Industrie, MondayAprilEssel Propack Hexaware, Accelya KaleUS Composite PMI0029Biocon, HDFC, Kajaria Cera0 027 28Godrej Cons, Marico KayaAshoka BuildconGrindwell NortonMayWednesdayMayWednesdayTalwalkar, BASFMayMay06Torrent PharmaSintex Industries15GSK Consumer, EicherThursday14FridayMayCadila Healthcare, HT MediaHSBC India Composite PMITitan Co, Hero MotoCorp0Kewal Kiran Cloth, DB Corp J&K Bank Emami Ltd130Syndicate BankJindal Saw, GE ShippingSiyaramSilk MillsKansai Nerolac,VardhmanStar Ferro CementMay16Atul Auto Ajanta Pharma, ApcotexSaturday0TuesdayCPI YOY UKFDI China14AprilIIP INDIA13Monday0Markit Manu PMI US0IDFC, Shoppers StopExport & Import ChinaCPI INDIAConstruction Output YOY EC23Monday2200HSBC China Comp PMIGateway DistriparksWednesdayKEC Inter, Greaves CottonSesa Sterlite, Federal BankP&G Hygiene, Gillete IndiaUnichemHindustan Unilever, PNBMayMarkit Manu PMI ChinaPetronet LNG007ThursdayInitial Jobless Claims (US)Exide, Oberoi RealtyThursdayMayHDFC Bank, Cyient, SQS Infosys002SaturdayMarico30Mahindra LifeFriday01ThursdaInitial Jobless Claims US15TCS, MindTreeAprilGDP YOY ChinaIndustrial Production ChinaWednesday yIndusInd Bank0KPIT Tech, Tata ElxsiKSB Pumps, Yes Bank, TuesdayGovn Debt/ GDP Ratio ECRallis India, MastekAprilTrade balance JapanExports & Imports YOY JapanUltratech CementApril0PPI Japan YOY Continuing Claimsd US0Jobless Claims UKCPI YOY US0Industrial ProductionEU21HSBC India Manu PMI0Markit China Manu PMI0MayBharti Airtel, IdeaApril0SKF India,Cairn IndiaSobha Ltd, Camlin LifeTuesdayDr Reddy, Apollo TyresAshok Leyland, TV TodayJubilant Life ScienceECB Current a/cSA EU0Thursday24PPI Service Japan YOY12MaApril April00 Century Plyboard, GatiSaturdaAprilPitti Laminationsyy Major Economic Events this week Result Preview Company Revenue EBITDA PATQ4FY15E YoY QoQ Q4FY15E YoY QoQ Q4FY15E YoY QoQDr Reddy3,993.0 14.7 3.9 1,038.2 32.9 5.9 755.9 56.6 31.6Apollo Tyres 3,098.0 -4.1 -0.2 439.1 -4.8 -10.5 287.6 2.1 55.9Ashok Leyland 4,872.6 58.4 45.0 460.3 150.2 93.3 261.2 -28.1 713.8TV Today 113.5 16.6 -13.8 28.3 11.3 -35.2 15.3 -3.4 -41.9Sobha Ltd 739.0 18.2 8.3 184.8 8.7 21.4 69.9 -0.4 16.5Motherson Sumi 9,010.2 7.2 2.1 782.6 -9.7 -13.6 257.5 -14.9 -28.0CARE 85.0 12.3 30.5 58.0 13.1 48.6 40.6 -1.6 9.3Chg(%) Chg(%) Chg(%)Revenue = NII; EBITDA = PPP for Banks and NBFC Recent Releases DateReport 11 May 2015 Company Update- Cyient Ltd 11 May 2015Result Update- Titan Company11 May 2015Result Update- Punjab National Bank11 May 2015Result Update- Hindustan Unilever Date Event Count Period Expected Previous12-May Ind Production YoY UK Mar 0.2% 0.1%12-May Manu Production YoY UK Mar 1.0% 1.1%12-May Ind Production YoY IN Mar 2.8% 5.0%12-May CPI YoY IN Apr 4.9% 5.2%13-May Ind Production YoY CH Apr 6.0% 5.6%13-May BoP Current A/c Bal JN Mar 2075.0B 1440.1B13-May Industrial Prod MoM EC Mar -0.3% 1.1%13-May GDP SA YoY EC 1Q A 1.0% 0.9%14-May Exports YoY IN Apr -- -21.1%14-May Imports YoY IN Apr -- -13.4%14-May Initial Jobless Claims US 9-May -- 265K14-May Continuing Claims US 2-May -- 2228K14-May Wholesale Prices YoY IN Apr -2.3% -2.3%15-May PPI YoY JN Apr -2.1% 0.7%15-May Ind Production MoM US Apr 0.0% -0.6%15-May Manu (SIC) Production US Apr 0.2% 0.1% 11 May 2015Result Update- Ajanta Pharmaceuticals Research Product Basket Research ProductPerspectiveFrequency Time frame Avg. 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Research page-We Recommend, iClick-2-Gain ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Pankaj PandeyHead Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 research@icicidirect.com ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We/I,PankajPandeyResearchAnalysts,authorsandthenamessubscribedtothisreport,herebycertifythatalloftheviewsexpressedinthisresearchreportaccuratelyreflectourviewsaboutthe subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. Terms & conditions and other disclosures: ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products. 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