12 may dailycalls.pdf

ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

Market Outlook

Sensex: We said, "Positive bias...larger positive options possible if the last fall gets retraced faster..." The index gapped up above Friday and holding the Yellow support line, gained further, to finish 402 points or 1.4% higher. Except FMCG, most other sectors ended with gains. PSU banks outperformed while the A/D ratio ended positive 3:1. The action formed another Bull candle, with a small gap-up area below its bottom. The bias will remain positive on higher high-low after bouncing from the lower Grey channel. "Faster retracement" and strength above 27604 today, followed by dips holding higher lows, would be positive for eventually testing upper end of the Grey falling channel. Otherwise not.

Exhibit 1: Sensex Daily Candlestick Chart

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

Domestic Indices

Indices Close Change Change%

S&P BSE Sensex 27507.30 401.91 1.48

CNX Nifty 8325.25 133.75 1.63

Nifty future 8342.15 131.60 1.60

S&PBSE 500 10831.92 168.90 1.58

S&PBSE Midcap 10453.96 217.75 2.13

S&PBSE Smallcap 10967.62 138.56 1.28

Global Indices Indices Close Change Change%Dow Jones 18105.17 -85.94 -0.47Nasdaq 4993.57 -9.98 -0.20FTSE 7029.85 -16.97 -0.24DAX 11673.35 -36.38 -0.31Hang Seng 27638.83 -64.12 -0.23Nikkei 19516.03 -110.46 -0.56SGX Nifty 8331.00 -7.00 -0.08* Asian Market as at 7:30am

Market Breadth

0 500 1000 1500 2000

Advance

Decline

Unchg

1755

973

103

824

285

35NSE BSE

Recommendations for the day

1. Buy Nifty May Future in range of 8295-8300 2. Buy ACC above 1508.00 3. Buy Tata Chemical in range of 445.00-446.00 4. Sell Dabur India below 258.50

*Recommendations are of May Future

Daily Calls May 12, 2015


Page 2

Exhibit 2: Nifty Future Daily Candlestick Chart

Source: ASA, ICICIdirect.com Research

CNX Nifty (Cash Levels) Technical Picture

Nifty Intraday Short TermTrend Up Range bound

Trend Reversal 8265

Support 8295-8265 8000

Resistance 8355-8390 8520

20 Days EMA 8345

200 days EMA 8184

Nifty Future Recommendations CMP :

Comment :

Action :

Targets : 8330/8350/Higher

Stop-loss : 8275.00

Future premium decreased from 19 points to 17. Move above 8398 required for faster retracement of last fall.Reverse if fails to reach or sustain above 8355-65 or 8400-mark

Buy in the range of 8295-8300

8342.15


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Trend Scanner

Positive Trends

Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%)

Aurobindo Pharma Ltd 1362.80 6.07 1290.53 58.66

Axis Bank Ltd 551.10 1.90 547.57 55.18

Housing Development Finance Corp 1226.10 3.44 1192.30 70.94

Eicher Motors Ltd 16871.60 6.91 15380.59 55.27

Ultratech Cement Ltd 2823.80 4.66 2686.05 64.86

Negative Trends

Scrip Name Close % Change 10-day SMA Delivery (%)

Dabur India Ltd 257.20 -1.40 259.42 62.32

DLF Ltd 130.25 -2.03 132.37 26.92

Overbought Stocks Oversold Stocks

Scrip Name LTP Stochastic Scrip Name LTP Stochastic

Amtek India 121 85.71 Exide Industries 156.25 16.23

NTPC 145.3 14.2

Candlestick Patterns

Bullish Candlestick Formations Bearish Candlestick Formations

Scrip Name Pattern name LTP Scrip Name Pattern name LTP

PVR Engulfing Bull 660.0 Just Dial Evening Star 1087.5

Petronet Engulfing Bull 176.6 DLF Engulfing Bear 130.0

Marico Engulfing Bull 380.1 Hindustan Uni Engulfing Bear 863.0

Ashok Leyland Continious 74.2

Auro Pharma Continious 1359.8

SBIN Continious 275.5

Eicher Motors Continious 16825.0

Motherson Sumi Continious 513.0

Note: For Candlestick pattern description refer towards the end of the report s

Stocks hitting 52 week High

Scrip Name LTP

Essel Pack 134.85

Jubilant Industries 151.6

Relaxo 846.65

Repro 448

UPL 505

Global Currencies

Spot Close Prev.close % Chg

Rupee (|) 63.855 63.938 0.13

Dollar Index 95.122 95.011 0.12

Euro 1.114 1.116 -0.13

British Pound 1.557 1.559 -0.12

Japanese Yen 120.170 120.080 -0.08

Australian ($) 0.790 0.789 0.14

Swiss Franc 0.935 0.934 -0.07

Global Treasury Yields

Closing Yield (%) Previous Yield (%)

India 10 year 7.89 7.89

US 10 Year 2.26 2.28

EURO 10 Year 0.61 0.55

GBP 10 Year 1.95 1.88

JPY 10 Year 0.42 0.40

Commodities US Dollar

Close Prev. Close %Chg

Gold/ounce 1183.99 1183.97 0.00

Copper /ton 6368.5 6391.5 -0.18

Brent Crude/barrel 64.73 64.91 -0.28

Institutional Activity

Cash Segment (| Cr) FII DII 11-May-15 170.0 328.68-May-15 -438 1,1147-May-15 -1361 1,1586-May-15 -1700 1,4555-May-15 -757 979


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Stock recommendations for the day

Exhibit 3: ACC (ACC) Daily Candlestick Chart

Source: Bloomberg, ICICIdirect.com Research

ACC (ACC) May Future

CMP 1507.55

Comment :

Action :


Stop-loss : 1498.00

Falling channel breakout and price close above 200 day EMA and RSI in uptrend in daily charts

Buy above 1508.00

RSI has generated a bullish crossover above its nine periods average thus validates positive momentum

Falling channel breakout and price close above 200 day EMA signalling further upsides in coming sessions


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Exhibit 4: Tata Chemical (TATCHE) Daily Candlestick Chart


Short term trendline breakout joining immediate highs indicates more upsides in coming sessions

MACD sustaining above its signal line suggests positive trend

Tata Chemical (TATCHE) May Future

CMP 446.15

Comment :

Action :


Stop-loss : 441.50

Buy in the range of 445.00-446.00

Short term trendline breakout and MACD giving buy signal sustaining above its signal line in the daily chart


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Exhibit 5: Dabur India (DABIND) Daily Candlestick Chart


Dabur India (DABIND) May Future

CMP 258.70

Comment :

Action :

Targets : 254/251.50/Lower

Stop-loss : 260.80

Price facing resistance at 13 day EMA and reacted from 38.2 percent retracement of recent fall and RSI in sell mode in daily charts

Sell below 258.50

RSI generated bearish crossover suggesting further downward momentum

Price facing resistance at 13 day EMA and reacted from 38.2% retracement of the previous decline indicates further downsides in coming sessions

38.2% @ 272


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Previous Days Performance

Scrip Product Strategy Recommended Price Targets SL Gain/Loss %* Comment

Nifty Future Buy In range of 8190-8200 8230/8250/+ 8175.00 - No tradeHindustan Unilever Future Buy above 900.00 915/924/+ 891.00 - No tradeBajaj Auto Future Buy above 2137 2168/2185/+ 2118.00 1.85 Target 2 achievedCipla Future Buy In range of 655-666.00 667/673/+ 649.50 - No trade (Open near target)PNB Future Sell below 143.80 140.8/139.2/- 145.30 -1.00 Stoploss triggered

Nifty Points gained for the day: 0 points Gains over last 25 days: 44.5 points Stock profits: Avg 0.43% per trade (Cum. Profits over last 25 days: 44.80%) Strike Rate for the day: 1/2 (Cum strike rate over 25 days: 35/56 NOTE: The follow-up and performance review table of the strategies indicates the profit opportunity that was available in the strategies. Individual profits may vary, depending upon the entry and exit price and stop losses


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Support and Resistance Table (Cash Levels)

SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND

SENSEX 27507.3 27467.45 27389.2 27310.95 27623.95 27804.7 27985.45 +ve

NIFTY 8325.25 8309.75 8282.7 8255.7 8363.8 8414 8464.2 +ve

ACC 1498.95 1491.9 1476.25 1460.55 1523.25 1532.9 1542.5 +ve

ADANI ENTER. 707.15 704.55 699.2 693.85 715.25 726.2 737.15 +ve

ADANI PORT 344.05 343.05 341.05 339.05 347 352 356.95 +ve

ADITYA BIRLA 1868.15 1853.85 1839.1 1817.55 1883.35 1898.1 1919.7 Neutral

ALLAHABAD BANK 102.7 102.25 101.15 100.05 104.4 105.65 106.85 +ve

AMBUJA CEMENT 238.5 237.3 235.1 232.9 241.75 243.9 246 +ve

AMTEK AUTO 153.4 153.45 152.25 151 155.9 159.25 162.55 +ve

ANDHRA BANK 77.8 77.45 76.6 75.75 79.1 79.9 80.65 +ve

APOLLO HOSP.ENT. 1250.6 1245.7 1220.25 1194.75 1296.65 1302.85 1309.05 +ve

APOLLO TYRES 170.95 170.15 168.3 166.45 173.85 175.2 176.5 +ve

ARVIND 256.65 256 254.15 252.3 259.7 263.1 266.5 +ve

ASHOK LEYLAND 74.3 73.55 72.25 70.95 76.2 77.25 78.3 +ve

ASIAN PAINTS 771.65 769.1 763.05 756.95 781.25 786.7 792.1 +ve

AUROBINDO PHARMA 1362.8 1353.05 1334.8 1316.55 1389.5 1410.85 1432.2 +ve

AXIS BANK 551.1 549.9 547.7 545.45 554.35 560.1 565.85 +ve

BAJAJ AUTO 2182.4 2175.65 2160.1 2144.5 2206.75 2233.35 2259.9 +ve

BOB 169.7 165.6 158.8 152 179.2 182.6 185.95 +ve

BOI 206.25 204.85 200.5 196.2 213.55 217.15 220.8 +ve

BATA INDIA 1051.45 1050.45 1044.75 1039.05 1061.8 1066.55 1071.3 +ve

BPCL 750.8 750.35 748.1 745.85 754.85 761.95 769.05 +ve

BHARTI AIRTEL 396.2 393 391.45 389.85 397.05 399.05 401.05 -ve

BHEL 234.7 234.2 231.55 228.95 239.45 240.7 242 +ve

CAIRNS INDIA 209.95 209.6 208.85 208.05 211.15 212.4 213.6 +ve

CANARA BANK 362.55 359.25 353.65 348.1 370.4 376.6 382.8 +ve

CENTURY TEXT. 653.25 651.85 647.05 642.3 661.35 670.25 679.15 +ve

CESC 544.45 544.1 541.8 539.5 548.7 552.45 556.15 +ve

CIPLA 666.1 666.65 664 661.4 671.9 682.1 692.35 +ve

COAL INDIA 371.95 371.3 368.8 366.35 376.25 378.45 380.65 +ve

CROMPTON GREAVES 170.3 169.7 168.35 166.95 172.4 174 175.55 +ve

DISH TV 77.45 77.45 77 76.55 78.35 79.65 81 +ve

DIVI'S LAB. 1731.45 1731.65 1720.6 1709.6 1753.75 1765.45 1777.2 +ve


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SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND

DLF 130.25 127.9 126.05 124.25 130.6 131.95 133.3 -ve

DR.REDDY'S LAB. 3359.7 3364.55 3346.8 3329.05 3400.05 3426.75 3453.45 +ve

EXIDE IND. 157.6 157.1 155 152.95 161.2 162.05 162.95 +ve

FEDERAL BANK 135.05 134.9 133.8 132.65 137.1 139.4 141.65 +ve

GAIL 373.05 372.1 369.75 367.35 376.85 379.25 381.6 +ve

GRASIM 3556.75 3548.4 3529.75 3511.1 3585.7 3599.2 3612.75 +ve

HAVELL'S INDIA 285.75 284.35 278.3 272.3 296.45 299.4 302.35 +ve

HCL TECH 941.9 940.1 933.55 927.05 953.15 961.35 969.55 +ve

HDFC BANK 990.3 988 983.35 978.65 997.35 1006.45 1015.6 +ve

HDFC 1226.1 1221.1 1211.35 1201.6 1240.55 1253.55 1266.55 +ve

HERO MOTO 2384.25 2375.3 2351.6 2327.95 2422.6 2450.75 2478.9 +ve

HEXAWARE TECH. 255.6 255.65 253.85 252.05 259.3 263.5 267.75 +ve

HINDALCO 142.5 142.55 141.35 140.1 145 146.6 148.25 +ve

HIND. UNILEVER 864.7 850.95 837.8 824.65 870.35 880.05 889.75 -ve

HPCL 605.5 604.1 599.75 595.35 612.8 622.75 632.7 +ve

IBULL HSG FIN 556.2 552.95 548.25 542.15 562.35 567.05 573.2 Neutral

IDBI 70.85 70.55 69.8 69.05 72.05 72.8 73.5 +ve

IDEA CELLULAR 171.1 171.35 170.25 169.1 173.6 175.95 178.3 +ve

NSE INFRA DEV FINANC 160.8 160.95 160.35 159.8 162.1 163.95 165.8 +ve

NSE IND.FIN.CORP.OF 31.45 31.4 31.05 30.75 32.05 32.45 32.9 +ve

INDUSIND BANK 819.65 817.95 813.7 809.45 826.45 831.55 836.7 +ve

INDIA CEMENTS 92.7 92.55 91.8 91.05 94.05 95.15 96.25 +ve

INDRAPRASTHA GAS 407.1 405.5 401.95 398.4 412.6 415.25 417.9 +ve

IOC 338.95 338.4 337.2 336.05 340.75 343.2 345.65 +ve

IB REAL ESTATE 58.25 58.35 57.75 57.2 59.5 60.4 61.3 +ve

INFOSYS 1993.65 1987.8 1975.85 1963.9 2011.7 2017.6 2023.45 +ve

IRB INFRA. 231.65 230.85 228.55 226.25 235.45 238.8 242.2 +ve

ITC 326.45 323.65 321.95 320.3 326.85 328.4 330 -ve

JINDAL ST&POW 135.6 135.65 134.55 133.5 137.8 139.85 141.9 +ve

NSE JSW ENERGY 108.95 108.75 107.9 107.1 110.4 111.55 112.75 +ve

NSE JSW STEEL 903.2 904.65 899.45 894.3 915.05 921.95 928.9 +ve

JUBILANT FOOD 1475.45 1470.05 1455.9 1441.75 1498.35 1509.5 1520.7 +ve

KOTAK MAH.BANK 1339.05 1338.55 1331.8 1325 1352.15 1362.85 1373.55 +ve

L & T 1615.3 1616.8 1610.75 1604.7 1628.95 1642.1 1655.25 +ve


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SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND LIC HOUSING 426.5 425.3 422.25 419.15 431.4 434.95 438.45 +ve

LUPIN 1769.9 1751.7 1736.95 1725.5 1781.15 1795.85 1807.35 Neutral

M & M 1194.25 1195 1188.25 1181.5 1208.5 1218.6 1228.75 +ve

MARUTI SUZUKI 3651.7 3649.55 3635 3620.45 3678.7 3699.2 3719.7 +ve

MINDTREE 1271 1272.6 1265.2 1257.85 1287.35 1297.8 1308.3 +ve

M&M FIN.SERV. 274 273.25 270.3 267.3 279.15 281.6 284.05 +ve

MOTHERSON SUMI 511.8 508.55 502.5 496.45 520.65 526.5 532.35 +ve

NSE NHPC 19.3 19.25 19.2 19.1 19.4 19.45 19.55 Neutral

NMDC 131.95 131.95 131.05 130.15 133.75 134.8 135.9 +ve

NSE NTPC 144.95 144.5 143.6 142.65 146.35 147.15 147.9 +ve

ONGC 319 317.2 315.75 313.15 320.1 321.5 324.15 Neutral

OBC 196.35 195.2 192.35 189.55 200.85 203.85 206.85 +ve

PETRONET LNG 175.35 174.4 172.15 169.9 178.9 180.5 182.1 +ve

POWER FINANCE 264.8 262.8 259.4 255.95 269.65 271.95 274.25 +ve

PTC INDIA 68.55 68.55 68.3 68.05 69.05 69.5 69.95 +ve

PNB 149.1 148.25 146.15 144.1 152.45 156.85 161.3 +ve

REL. CAPITAL 399.15 398.75 396.3 393.8 403.7 407.3 410.9 +ve

RELIANCE INFRA. 412.85 412 409.6 407.25 416.75 420.35 423.95 +ve

RELIANCE 895.95 894.45 890.45 886.4 902.45 910.65 918.8 +ve

RELIANCE POWER 54.35 54.3 54 53.7 54.85 55.25 55.65 +ve

REC 297.85 297.65 294.75 291.8 303.55 306.15 308.75 +ve

SAIL 68.85 69.05 68.6 68.15 69.9 70.6 71.3 +ve

SESA GOA 0 217.65 214.3 209.7 224.35 227.7 232.3 Neutral

SHRIRAM TRANS. 823.2 818.1 808.55 799 837.2 846.25 855.3 +ve

SIEMENS 1342.2 1337.95 1326.9 1315.85 1360.05 1378.75 1397.45 +ve

SKS MICRO FIN. 465.15 462.75 456.85 450.95 474.6 479.55 484.5 +ve

SBI 276.05 274 270.35 266.7 281.3 283.4 285.5 +ve

SUN PHARMA 964.4 962.45 957.55 952.65 972.3 980.95 989.65 +ve

SUN TV 367.05 365.85 362.6 359.4 372.3 377.5 382.7 +ve

SYNDICATE BANK 106.5 106.15 104.45 102.75 109.55 110.8 112.1 +ve

TATA COMM. 429.25 429.45 427.55 425.6 433.25 436.95 440.6 +ve

TATA CHEM. 445.75 444.65 441.35 438.1 451.2 456.05 460.95 +ve

TATA MOTOR DVR 322.75 321.15 318.05 315 327.35 331.9 336.45 +ve

TATA MOTORS 529.7 527.8 524.3 520.8 534.75 542.55 550.3 +ve


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SCRIP CLOSE S1 S2 S3 R1 R2 R3 TREND TATA POWER 74.3 74.2 73.8 73.45 75 75.6 76.25 +ve

TATA GLOBAL BEV. 143.35 143 142.15 141.3 144.65 145.7 146.7 +ve

TCS 2556 2552 2542.5 2533 2571.05 2588.95 2606.9 +ve

TECH MAHINDRA 631.3 630.5 625.05 619.55 641.45 644.15 646.8 +ve

TATA STEEL 377.1 376.7 374 371.25 382.15 385.85 389.5 +ve

TITAN IND. 367.65 364.7 358.4 352.1 377.3 386.1 394.9 +ve

TVS MOTOR 227.05 226.35 224.9 223.4 229.3 232.45 235.6 +ve

UCO BANK 62.05 61.85 60.95 60.1 63.6 64.15 64.7 +ve

ULTRATECH CEMENT 2823.8 2808.85 2768.4 2727.9 2889.8 2912.5 2935.2 +ve

UBI 140.35 139.2 136.95 134.65 143.7 145.25 146.8 +ve

UNITED PHOSPH. 504.75 502.3 499.25 493.5 508.4 511.45 517.15 Neutral

VOLTAS 281.5 281.5 279.5 277.45 285.5 289.35 293.2 +ve

WIPRO 541.5 539.45 537.65 535.55 543.05 544.85 546.95 Neutral

WOCKHARDT 1294.95 1299.4 1281.2 1262.95 1335.8 1358.75 1381.7 +ve

YES BANK 844.35 842.15 836.8 831.45 852.85 860.85 868.85 +ve

ZEE 317.7 316.7 314.4 312.05 321.35 323.15 324.95 +ve


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NOTES:

Please execute the recommendation within the levels provided in the report Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report Avoid entering into the recommendation in the first 5 minutes of trade If the recommendation opens near the target levels due to gap up/gap down opening, then the

recommendation is considered not initiateds The recommendations are valid only for the day and should be squared off by the end of the day Only stocks in derivatives segment have been considered for daily trading Medium to long-term prospects of a stock does not have any bearing on the daily view

Trading Portfolio allocation

It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical research products.

Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation. For example: The Daily Calls product carries 3 to 4 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate

equal amount to each recommendation


Page 13

Recommended Trading Portfolio allocation

Allocations Return Objective

Products Product wise allocation

Max allocation in 1 stock

Number of Calls Frontline Stocks Mid-cap stocks

Duration

Daily Calls 8% 2-3% 3-4 Stocks 0.50-1% 2-3% Intraday Short term Delivery 6% 3-5% 7-10 p.m 4-5% 7-10% Opportunity based Weekly Calls 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Weekly Technical 8% 3-5% 1-2 Stocks 5-7% 7-10% 1 Week Monthly Call 15% 5% 2-3 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Monthly Technical 15% 2-4% 5-8 Stocks 7-10% 10-15% 1 Month Techno Funda 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 6 Months Technical Breakout 15% 5-10% 1-2 Stocks 10% and above 15% and above 3-6 Months Cash in Hand 10% - - - - -

100%


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Candlesticks Glossary:

Candlestick patterns describe the market sentiment for the specified period. Some of the formations suggest reversal of sentiment (trend) and, therefore, are important for a chart reader. By themselves, the patterns do not carry any price target but only an indication of change in market behaviour. More importance needs to be given to the placement of the pattern within larger trend

Bullish Engulfing Line: A potential bottom reversal pattern. This pattern typically appears at the culmination of a decline or downtrend. The market falls, and a black candle forms (ideally a small black candle). Next, a white real body wraps around the prior sessions black body. Low of the pattern becomes short term support for prices Piercing Line: Potential bottom reversal pattern. A black body forms in the downtrend. The market continues moving south on the next sessions open but that session culminates in a white real body that closes (e.g. pierces) than half way or more into the prior black body. Lowest low between two candles is referred to as technical support for prices Hammer: A candlestick line which, during a downtrend, has a very long lower shadow and small real body (black or white) at the top end of the sessions range. There should be no, or a very small, upper shadow. Pattern suggests buying support during declines and needs confirmation in terms of sustainability of prices above head of the Hammer in following session Bearish Engulfing Line: Potential top reversal signal. This two candlestick pattern emerges during a rally. A black candle real body wraps around a white real body (classically a small white candle) Highest high between two candles becomes resistance level for prices for future reference Dark Cloud cover: A dark cloud cover forms a top reversal pattern. The first session should be a strong, white real body. The second sessions price opens over the prior sessions high (or above the prior sessions close). By the end of the second session, it closes near the low of the session and should fall well into the prior sessions white body. Pattern suggests that market has a poor chance of rising immediately Shooting Star: A single candlestick line during a rally in which there is a small real body (white or black) at the bottom end of the session's range and a very long upper shadow. The candle line should also have little or no lower shadow. Pattern suggest the trouble for prices overhead.


Page 15

Pankaj Pandey Head Research [email protected] ICICIdirect.com Research Desk, ICICI Securities Limited, 1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre, Road No 7, MIDC Andheri (East) Mumbai 400 093 [email protected]


Page 16

Disclaimer ANALYST CERTIFICATION We /I, Dharmesh Shah, Dipesh Dagha, Nitin Kunte, Pabitro Mukherjee Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report.

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