12-july-2016 chris schneider · 2018-03-13 · competitive transport market • informed...

12-July-2016Chris Schneider

Futures near and far ....an airports view

Content:

Mobility environment in 2035

The aviation market – the demand side

The infrastructure supply side

Munich Airport – heading to the future

Conclusion … and questions

Trends, trends ….

3

The pace of societal development & change has increased enormously ….

Social inclusion

Secure & Sustainable Mobility The connected citizen

Personalisation Virtual world

Global warming

Circ

ular

ec

onom

y

Dem

ogra

phic

ch

ange

Co-Creation

24/7

Hea

lthy

lifes

tyle

s

Participation

Smart & Integrated Mobility

Cyber-attacks Digital Society

Share economy

DecentralisationU

rban

isat

ion

NIMBY-ism

Chris Schneider Munich Airport GmbH – Dataset2050 workshop – 12-JUL-2016

Disruptive change is in the air ….

4

The application and integration of new technologies offer a plethora of new services that can shake up the world as we know it …..

Automation & Connectivity

3D printingBattery technologies

Smart Systems Autonomous VehiclesVirtualisation

Posi

tion

base

d in

form

atio

n

Dig

italis

atio

n Big data

Dro

nes In

dust

ry 4

.0Blockchains

Internet of ThingsIntelligent transport Systems Hyperloop

Alternative Fuels

Electrification of transport

Sm

art c

ities


Uncertainties …

5

Just because something is technically feasible and sounds good on paper does not mean it will be a huge market success or trigger disruptive change. Innovation has its own rules and dependencies….

Evolution or Revolution

MarketplaceBig brother

Societal Acceptance Global WarmingSpeed of change

Mor

e or

less

m

obili

ty

Tech

nolo

gy P

ush

Regulation

Sec

urity

Mar

ket P

ull

Economical Development

Automation vs. Labour

Liability issues PoliticsFragmentation / centralisation

Human roleD

istri

butio

n of

wea

lth


The mobility challenge set out by ACAREs ‚Flightpath 2050‘

6

• European citizens are able to make informed mobility choices

• 90% of travellers within Europe are able to complete their journey, door-to-door within 4 hours.

• A coherent ground infrastructure is developed

• Flights land within 1 minute of the planned arrival time

• An air traffic management system is capable of handling 25 million flights a year in Europe

Advisory Council for Aviation Research and Innovation in Europe


Addressing this mobility challenge means ….

• A shift from ‘mode-specific’ to ‘integrated transport solutions’ (door-to-door vs. airport-to-airport)

• Need to harmonize processes and interfaces between travel modes

• Need to enable seamless flows of passengers and freight through the system in order to meet d2d mobility performance targets

• Need for a step-change in predictability and punctuality of transport operations

• Customer-centric system also means liberalised and competitive transport market

• Informed mobility-choices by customers require guidance provided without any bias towards providers or modes

7

Integration and co-operation is key for customer-centric mobility


Travel improvements:• Travel decisions based on

unbiased information according individual travel preferences (e.g. environmental footprint, cost, reliability, punctuality, health aspects etc.)

• Integrated door-to-door travel planning, booking, ticketing and payment (one contract for whole journey)

• Door-to-door (multimodal) travel monitoring & reconfiguration reduces uncertainty, buffers and stress

• Integrated airport processes provide a hassle-free and predictable walk-through experience

• Sufficient system capacity and integration allows customers freedom of choice and unprecedented reliability, service and punctuality levels.

A simplified journey involving air travel …

Source: Munich Airport89/12/2016


The aviation market –the demand side

Seite 9

The market environment ...

• Airbus Global Market Forecast

• Boeing Current Market Outlook

• Embraer Market Outlook

• EUROCONTROL IFR Long-Term-Forecast

Source: Airbus, Boeing, Embraer, EUROCONTROL


0 500 1000 15000 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Southeast Asia--South AsiaMiddle East--Southeast Asia

North America--South AmericaEurope--South America

Central America--North AmericaCIS Region--International

Africa--EuropeChina--Europe

China--North AmericaChina--Southeast Asia

Middle East--South AsiaEurope--North America

Europe--Middle EastSouth Asia--South Asia

South America--South AmericaRest of World

Southeast Asia--Southeast AsiaNorth America--North America

Europe--EuropeChina--China


Only domestic traffic within China is forecast to outperform intra-European and North American trafficgrowth until 2034 (absolute growth, RPK):

RPK (billions)

Data source: Boeing CMO 2015

Europe NorthAmerica

11 Chris Schneider Munich Airport GmbH – Dataset2050 workshop – 12-JUL-2016

Europe and North America will be among the top three regions with regards to absolute traffic growthuntil 2034 (RPK):

12

RPK (billions) from / to / within

Traffic growth2014-2034


Data source: Boeing CMO 2015

0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0 3000.0

CIS

Rest of World

Central America

Oceania

North East Asia

Africa

South America

South Asia

Middle East

South East Asia

North America

China

Europe


13


source: Airbus GMF 2015Chris Schneider Munich Airport GmbH – Dataset2050 workshop – 12-JUL-2016

14



15



The business environment ... hampered or enabled byregulations

Source: Handelsblatt Research Institute

Airport Curfews

ETS

pax taxes

fiscal conditions

Air transport seen asstrategic asset

Cost of employment

Productivity

Infrastructure


worstcon-

ditions

Best conditions

Best conditions

The infrastructure supply side …

The market environment – Eurocontrol study ‘Challenges of growth 2013’

18source: eurocontrol


The market environment – airport capacity will limit air travel

19

Global growthRegulated GrowthHappy LocalismFragmenting World

about. 1500 add. daily mvts.

In Germany

Dotted lines unconstrained growthSolid lines Growth constrained by airport capacity


Challenges for growth scenarios are based on completion ofplanned infrastructure projects ... This cannot be taken for grantedE.g. official planning for a third runway in MUC began in 2005, legal approval was obtained in 2012 and confirmed in 2014...


… but construction is blocked by the city of Munich, whose citizens voted against it in 2013

21

Source: www.keine-startbahn3.de

In spite of• no additional noise exposure for Munich• very limited additional noise exposure to airport neighbours• no night operation (22:00 until 06:00) on new runway• comprehensive plan of noise protection and soundproofing measures• airport proven to be a key locational factor for local business and tourism

industry• 2.5 new jobs per day since airport opening in 1992• 15.000 new jobs related to new runway• Airport indirectly securing 250.000+ jobs in the region• no taxpayers money used or required• long term growth forecast of aviation• .....


Challenge to Growth – Airport Capacity

Airports w/ summer delay (in minutes/flight).Source: EUROCONTROL


Properties and scales of Hub- and Point-to-Point traffic

• Munich served a total of 199.000 city pairs in 2014 (with at least one pax/ year).

• Only 69 of those 199.000 city pairs generate more than 10 pax / day connecting at MUC

• The top 15.000 city pairs generate more than 1 pax / week connecting at MUC

• On average each of these top 15.000 citypairs generates 1,3 pax / day connecting at MUC

23

• About 51.000 city pairs being served withdirect flights worldwide with at least 1 pax / week out of 5.700 airports.

• Each of these routes is being served by 1.9 airlines on average.

• The average pax number of these directflights is 78


Will Hubs continue to play a role in European connectivity ?

City pair grouped per PPDEW

# of citypairs MUC

# of citypairs LHR

# of citypairs CDG

40+ 0 15 1

20-40 5 68 15

15-20 7 90 32

10-15 57 218 108

5-10 604 853 653

3-5 1.108 972 1.211

1-3 3.832 3.295 5.040

>1 PAX/day 8.664 13.358 16.530

< 1 PAX/week 185.000 200.000+ 200.000+

20-401%

15-200% 10-15

3%

5-1019%

3-519%

1-329%

Less than 1 PAX/

day16%

Less than 1 PAX/ week13%

City Pairs grouped according to share of connecting pax at MUC

24

Data Source: SABRE Market Intelligence, 2014

Given the low passenger numbers on city pairs served it is hard to conceivehow hub connectivity could be replaced by point-to-point traffic ....


• HST competes with and/or complements short-haul passenger air transport

• Can offer comparable transport times for distances up to 800km

• Lower risk of delay, less security hassle, shorter distance to the city center (?)

• HST serve as a ‘comodality’ by providing feeder services for air travel.

High-Speed-Train - Enabler & Competitor


High-Speed-Train – Enabler & Competitor

at app.3.5 hours, the majority of people start to prefer the train over flying.

At app.3.5 hours, the majority of people start to prefer the train over flying.

Can short-haul flight become more attractive, compete with or compete with HST?Source: Silverrailtech


Munich airport –heading to the future

Airside – 2035 (hopefully !!) – just enough to cope withprojected demand @MUC


Airport City 2035 – more uncertainties here than airside (e.g. capacity of car parks, etc.)....


29

29

Munich Airport - Last airport access modes 2015Originating passengers

38%Car

29%Suburban railway

13%Taxi

7%Rental Car, Car-Sharing

13%Bus, Transfer

services,surrounding area

parking

TAXI

600.000 originating passengers use off-campus parkingfacilities (mostly leisure pax)

3,8 Mio. Pax use suburban railway for airport access

4,9 Mio. of theoriginating passengers use the car for reaching the airport.1,2 Mio. Of those parkfor the duration of travel

Taxis and rental cars are important airport access modes

© Flughafen München GmbH, GB Aviation Marktforschung/ Verkehrsstrukturdaten 2015Quelle: Fluggastbefragung 2015; Basis hochgerechnet 13,0 Mio. OriginäreinsteigerChris Schneider Munich Airport GmbH – Dataset2050 workshop – 12-JUL-201630

Munich Airport: accessibility by rail and car

31

► The accessibility by car is by far superior to train

CarPublic transport


Feasible reduction of travel time to Munich Airport by improved rail access …


33

The Customer

Data processing and analytics have to become muchsmarter - All partners need to work together tocreate a true seamless travel experience for ourcustomer


Mobility 4.0 – Concept VisualisationC

lose

dB2

B-Sy

stem

s

CDM-Mobility-Process -Plattform„Common Situational Awareness“

…

Intermodal Mobility- Marketplace

Customer-Specific Offers

Flug LH413 EWR-MUC

S1 Flughafen-München Hbf

ICE880 München Hbf-Hamburg Altona

Flug U25283 MUC-LGW

München (Flughafen) -Budapest (Nepliget aut All.)

Flughafen MünchenBMW 1erM-DX5784

Ope

n B2

C-S

yste

ms

ETACapacity

Pax ETD

STASTD


Basic process information for real-time information exchange and intermodal travel journey management

Standardised mobility offers ofall mobility providers –„Buildings blocks of intermodal travel journeys“

Customer specific designedoffers of whole travel traveljourneys with „single point ofcontact“ for booking, (realtime-) information & Liability

Airports have to provide more than shopping experiences –we have great success with our Munich Airport Center (MAC) forum connecting the terminals ...


... which is the perfect location for various events


Conclusion …

…. and Questions

Seite 38

Conclusion …

39

• Times are interesting right now, with the pace of innovation fast but still hard to assess

• Continuous growth is forecast for the air transport market

• While Europe may show slower relative growth rates, absolute growth is still very significant

• Airport capacity will be THE issue when it comes to coping with demand and may actuallylimit growth and mobility in Europe

• Hubs will continue to be essential for connectivity around the world

• Airports have a strong interest in promoting intermodality as a win-win with other transportmodes

• Digital services are key for reducing time buffers and waiting times at airports, thuis bringingus closer to ACAREs 4hr d2d goal.

• Airports will increasingly have to provide services other than shopping to ensure theirbusiness model


…. and Questions

40

• What is your gut feeling, do we need to evolve our current systems, or do we need disruptive solutions (in any travel segment) to achieve the 4H D2D target? These clearly require very different approaches….

• Information technologies are already supporting informed mobility choices in Europe, it seems. But are they really ? How can we pave the way to real transparency to be able to compare journey options in an unbiased way for specific user preferences ?

• What other changes are needed, e.g. regarding affordability and equity, and do air transport stakeholders have a particular role to play in this?

• Is the 90% 4H D2D target the right metric for measuring progress? How could it be enhanced? How well can we estimate progress so far, and does it feel like an achievable goal?

• Who are the key players in achieving the goal and what are the key conflicts that need to be resolved?

• What have been the key contributions to improved punctuality from ATM in recent decades, and what more can we reasonably expect by 2035 and 2050?

• With regards to what you heard this morning, Do you expect disruptive changes regarding passenger management?

• What key areas of improvement can we expect at the airport, considering both airside and landside processes, to increase the predictability of processes? If more runways are the answer to airport capacity issues, how can we get public consensus on this need? Who is responsible for airport accessibility?


Thank you

12-july-2016 chris schneider · 2018-03-13 · competitive transport market • informed...

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