10 Trends To Watch

Through The End Of 2016

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1. Vote TV

Traditionalmediawillgetaboostfrompolitical spendingduringthisU.S.election season.Punditspredicta$5billionpresidential race—double 2012’stotal—andstateandlocal candidatesaregirdingformassivespending,anticipating thesideeffectsofacontentiousClinton-vs.-Trumpcampaign.

TheresultcouldbetightinventoriesofnationalandlocalTVtime,especially inthebattlegroundstates.TheAssociationofNationalAdvertisers(ANA)hasalreadypredicted thepossibilityofan“adsqueeze” asthepartyconventionsadjournjustintime fortheOlympicGamestokickoffandtakeupinventories.

Therisinguseofprogrammaticbuyingforpolitical adswillhelpeasethecrunch,thoughpoliticaladvertisingremainsTV-centric,especially inlocal spotmarkets.Expect tightinventoriesandheftyprice tagsforprimetimeuntilNovember.

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2. Marketers And Agencies At Odds

Cracksinthemarketer-agencyrelationshipbecameobviousthisspring,aftertheANAreleasedacontroversialK2studyhighlycritical oftransparencyinagencymedia-buyingpractices.Theindustrygrouppointedtoa“fundamentaldisconnect,”citing rebatesfrompublisherswerepervasive,withmarkupsoftenmandatedbysenioragencyexecutives.

TheK2studyappearstohavedrivenawedgebetweentheANAandtheAmericanAssociationofAdvertisingAgencies (4A’s),whichinJanuaryreleased itsownsetoftransparencyguidelines. “Thisdoesnothingtofosteraproductiveconversationortomoveourindustryforward,”the4A’sstatedinresponse totheK2study.

Thetwogroupshavebeentryingtofindcommoncauseinfightingofftheseparate issueofadfraud,estimatedtobea$7.2billionannualdrainonmediabudgets.Futuremeetingscouldnowbetense.

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Lastyearwepredicted publisherswouldstrikebackagainstadblockers,butthelevelofad-blockingadoptionhasshockedeventhepessimists.Blockingexplodedby90%in2015,aMayreportfromPageFair revealed,andwasevenmorepervasiveonmobile,wheretwiceasmanyusersblockadsthanondesktops.Oneinfourmobileusershaveadblockers.

Mediaandcreativeexecutivesacknowledge thattheindustrywillhavetostopfightingandadapttothenewnormalofadblockers.Relevant,value-addedmessagesshouldhelp.

“It’stheculminationofyearsoftechnologythatcutsoutthecrapandgivesconsumersthecontentthattheywant,”saidJasonJercinovic,globalheadofmarketinginnovationandglobalbranddirectorofHavasWorldwide.“Verysooneveryonewillhaveadblockingbuiltin,andthat’sabenefit.LookatSnapchat—they’vedoneagoodjob;theadsarereallyentertaining.”

3. Ad Blocking Goes Mobile

AllrecentOlympicshaveopenedinthewakeofcontroversy,buttheRioGamesfacemorethanitsshare,includingapotentialbanonRussianathletesfordoping,aZika virusoutbreakthatmadeofficialsponderpostponingtheevent,andanunsteadypoliticalsituationinBrazil(includingapresidentialimpeachment).

Sponsorshipcontracts,however,havebeeninplace foryears.NBCexpects totopthe$1.3billion inadsalesitrackedupintheLondonOlympicsin2012.Attheserates,marketerswillbeapproachingthesegameswithextracare.

“Thewell-documented issuesgoingonatthemomentwilldefinitelymeanCMOswillbetakingahardlookatmessagingandtiming toensurenottofallfoulofanyminefields,” saidDominicCurran,CEOofsportsmarketingagencySynergyU.S.

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4. Olympic-Sized Trouble

InthedecadessinceChina'smarketopenedtotheWest,brandshaverushedin,butthisyear’smarketcorrectionhasgiventhemamomenttostopandconsiderChinaasmorethananewfrontierbutasacomplexmarket.

So,astheChineseeconomycontinuestogrowataclipfasterthanintheU.S.orEurope,brandsareintroducinganewsubtletyintheir segmentation.Landorrecentlypublishedareportcalling fora“profoundrethink” ofthemarket,pointingoutchangingattitudesamongChineseMillennials, anewmindsetamongChinesewomen,andasharpdividebetweenvillagesandcities.ZenithOptimedia reportedtheChinesemediamarketismaturing,too,withtheriseofpaidcontentandamoresophisticatedoutlookongaugingdigitalengagement.

WhileChinesebrands,suchasHuawei,Tencent,andAlibaba,lookglobally,it’snotenoughtomerely launchabrandinChinain2016. Indeed,thedaysofeasygrowthareover.

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5. Digging (In)To China

AttheDigitalContentNewFronts thisspring,theword“partnership”cameuprepeatedly.While thedigitalplatformshaveemulatedTVnetworksinthepast—creatingshowsandselling ads—platformsaremovingcloser tothe“contentlab”model,partneringwithsponsorsearly intheproductionprocess.Forexample,atCannes,Yahoolaunched theStorytellers contentstudio,withbrandsincludingDasaniandJetBlue. Largelyresponsible fortheshift:Adblockingandskippinghasmadepreroll andin-streamspotslessviable.

Meanwhile, contentcreatorsareaccepting theirnewrole,despitewarinessabout“sellingout.”DocumentarianMorganSpurlockwasremarkablysanguineattheNewFronts,sayingthatmarketersandcreatorsarewilling toplayballnow.DanHarmon,creatoroftheNBCshow“Community,”commentedthatcreativesneedtobreakoutofthenoncommercialposebecause“we’reasmuchpartofthisweirdculture…We’renotpunkrock.”

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6. Howdy, (Content) Partner

Socialnetworkshavecenteredonbrandingmessages,butin2016theirfocusshiftedtobecomingestablishedconduitsfornews.Twitter liftedits140-characterlimit,andFacebookshuttereditsNotifyapptointegrateitintoappsandmakelifeeasier forpublishers.

Theplatformsarefollowingtheaudience:Asurvey fromReutersInstituteshowshalfthepublicgetsnewsfromtheir socialfeeds;for12%,it’sthemainnewssource,andthat’sevenmoreevidentamong18- to24-year-olds.

Social-friendlypublishershaveacknowledged theshiftandarepartneringwithmarketerstoproducebrandedcontentmadetobeshared.AccordingtofounderJonahPeretti,75%ofBuzzFeed’s contentisconsumedviasocialsharing.Asthesocialplatformsleanintotheirroleaspublishers—andtherecentacquisitionofLinkedInbyMicrosoft opensnewpossibilities—expect toseemorepublishersexperiment withchatbots andotherwaystopushcontentandsponsoredmessagesviasocial.

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7. Social ‘Likes’ News

It’snotall self-drivingcarsandsmarthomes.Afteryearsofcirclingaroundtheuseofnaturallanguageprocessing,automaticspeechrecognition,andcontextualmessaging,marketersareleveragingartificialintelligence (AI)farmoreextensively thisyear.

ThespringlaunchofFacebook’sbotstoreforMessengermeansthatanybusinesscanafforditsownchatbot toengagecustomers—asimple,everydayuseofAI.Observersseethisasameretoeinthewaterwhenitcomestoaddingmachinelearning toallaspectsofthemarketingecosystem.

“There’snoquestionAIhasarrived,andit’sgrowinginuseinmarketing,”saidTrevorO’Brien,CTOatDeutschNY.“IfullyexpectAItobeadisruptortonotonlyourclientbusinessbutalsoforagencies—everything fromsitesthatbuildthemselvesandgetbetterovertime toself-learningadsystems.It’sgoingtobefun.”

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8. Artificial Intelligence, Naturally

OneimmediateuseofAIin2016willbedigitalassistants,suchasApple’sSiri,Microsoft’sCortana,IBM’sWatson,Amazon’sAlexa,andGoogle’sAssistant.Marketerswillbeinjectingvoice-activatedresponseintoretailandmessaging,whilealsolookingintoafuturewhereyoungergenerationswillhavegrownuptalkingtodevices,appliances,andcars.

“Tried-and-truemarketingconcepts,likeSEO,PPC,andlocation-basedmarketing,nowneedtofitintovoice-onlyenvironments,”saidJonathanAdams,chiefdigitalofficeratWPPagencyMaxus.“Allfivebrandshaveinfiltrated,orsoonwill,thesmarthomeandin-dashcar[telematics] industries,sogetreadyforadevicewar.”

It’stoosoontotellhowthiscompetitionwillaffectthemarket,but“thesecondhalfof2016willbeapowerfuloneforvoice,” saidGregHedges,directorofstrategyatdigitalagency Rain.“We’re justscratchingthesurfaceofwherevoicecanandwillgo.”

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9. Digital Assistants Speak Up

Iftalkingtoadigitalassistantistoomucheffort,marketersareworkingonwaystoavoidwordsentirely.Withyoungergenerationscommunicatingmoreoftenviatextandimages,emojis areevolvingasthenewmodeofcommunicationforbrands.AsurveyfromSocialBakers,forexample, foundbytheendof2015thenumberofbrandsusingemojis grew46%onFacebookand32%onTwitter.Thetrendcontinues.

Casesinpoint:AfterDomino’swonawardsforitspizza-orderingemojiprogram,othermarketers,includingDove,ComedyCentral,andCoke,followed.Nowanumberofbrandsareincorporatingthevisualsintotheirtraditional campaigns.Pepsirecently launchedaglobalsummerbrandcampaignusingalibraryofemojis andhundredsofwordless,five-secondTVspots.

Expect toseemoremarketersleverage theseimages,especially intheirmobile-basedefforts.Whatwasdisruptivelastyearisbecomingmainstreamin2016.

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10. Words Fail Us J