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Why Couple?

The more we study the major problems over time, the

more we come to realize that they cannot be understood

in isolation. They are systemic problems, which meansthat they are interconnected and interdependent.

F. Capra (1996)

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Why coupled models?

Motivation for Coupling Models

Coupling Requirements

What coupling creates

Sensitivity & Feedbacks

The Human Interaction

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IPCC AR4

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IPCC AR4

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IPCC CO2 Forcing @ 2100

Glacial

Formations

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AR4 @ 2100

Equivalent CO2

Major

PETM

OAEs

LateOrd

LateDev

PT

TJ

KT

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Ruddiman (1990)

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Lets zoom in!

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Coupling Components

Requires transfer across boundaries of:

Energy Momentum

Mass

Practical Issues:

How frequent do components communicate Properties must conserve across boundaries

Must deal with disparate grids

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Energy

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Momentum

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Water Mass

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Salinity

Evap-Precip Runoff

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Coupling Affects Modes of ClimateVariability

El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) North Atlantic Oscillation Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Heinrch Events Others?

But some things dont improve!

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Ruddiman (1990)

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Uncoupled CoupledPRECIP

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Forcing Feedbacks Response

Variability

Weallfitinheresomewhere!

Climate Science

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Sensitivity

Forcing

Response

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Feedbacks

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AirTemperature

SeaIceExtent

PrecipitaGon

VegetaGon

CoupledFeedbacks

OceanSolubility

OceanTemperature

Atmospheric

CO2

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Climate Timescales

Ruddiman (1990)

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EnergyBalance

Surface

Temperature

SeaIceArea

Spinup

~100yr

CCSM3

T31X3Control

Inherent Time Scales of Coupled Model

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Beawarewhenthingsareoutofbalance.

TaoTeChing53

ocean

atmosphere

Cp

T

t 0

ocean

atmosphere

CpT

t> 0

Adjustment Timescale

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Box Advective Diffusion Model

Harvey and Schneider (1985)

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Harvey and Schneider (1985)

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Global Surface Energy Balance

Permian-Triassic Simulation

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Ocean Surface Energy Balance

Permian-Triassic Simulation

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Danabasoglu and Gent (2009)

2XCO2

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Earths Carbon Cycle(on century time scales)

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Takahashi et al (2000)

Flux of CO2 into/out of ocean

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Mean net terrestrial and oceanic flux (NEP plus fires; no fossil fuel emissions included) for the period 20012005estimated from our system

Peters W. et.al. PNAS;2007;104:18925-18930

2007 by National Academy of Sciences

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Gregory et al. (2009)

Feedback Strengths

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EmissionsandResulGngAtmosphericCO2ConcentraGonforA2andB1Scenarios

Shafferetal.(2009)

MIT

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OceanDissolvedoxygen(molkg1)forA2IPCCscenario

Shafferetal.(2009)

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Human Interactions

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Why Does Climate Sensitivity Matter?

Caldeira et al. (2003)

To keep warming to 2C

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Caldeira et al. (2003)

To keep warming to 2C

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Dont get involved in partial problems, but always take

flight to where there is a free view over the whole singlegreat problem, even if the view is still not a clear one.

Ludwig Wittgenstein

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THE END