1 Yi-Jay Chang 2 Brian Langseth 3 Mark Maunder 1 Felipe Carvalho Performance of a stock assessment model with misspecified time-varying growth 1 JIMAR, PIFSC, NOAA (JIMAR) 2 PIFSC, NOAA 3 IATTC CAPAM, 3-7 Nov, 2014 Overview Examples of time-varying growth in fish populations Objectives of this study Operating model (Individual-based model) Cohort-specific and year-specific time-varying growth Stock assessment model Results Cohort-specific K vs Linf Cohort-specific vs year-specific Comparison of time-varying methods Discussion 2 3 Clark et al. (1999) CJAFS Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) Francis (1997) NZ Mar Freshw Res Elephantfish (Callorhinchus milii) Common sardine (Strangomera bentincki) Feltrim & Ernst (2010) Fish Res Examples of time-varying growth Static growth Time-varying growth Impact of time-varying growth on stock assessment Athol Whitten et al. (2013) Fish Res Blue hake (grenadier), Macruronus novaezelandiae Further study should focus on comparing alternative methods for dealing with temporal variability in growth in stock assessment models by using simulation analyses. Objectives of this study 1.To develop an operating model (OM) to simulate population dynamics and possible time-varying growth of the swordfish in the North Pacific Ocean 2.To evaluate the performance of a stock assessment model with mis-specified time-varying growth by using simulation testing analysis 3.To explore the implications of various ways of handling time- varying growth in a stock assessment model 5 6 Previous assessments ISC (2009); ISC (2014) SS3; Bayesian production model Data used: Catch WCNPO SWO CPUE indices: Japan longline TW longline HW longline WCNPO Swordfish Source: Is it fished? Time-varying Growth End of year Start of year Recruitment Die? Bookkeeping More fish? Landing Die naturally NO YES NO Individual-based model Applications of IBM: Chen et al. (2005) Maine lobster sizestructured stock assessment model Kim et al. (2002) New Zealand abalone assessment model Labelle (2005) yellowfin tuna MULTIFAN-CL iPopSim Individual-based Population Simulator YES NO Population model: N t+1 = N t e -Z Individual-based model: r 1 ~U(0,1); r 2 ~U(0,1) If r 1 exp(Z(L i )), dies; survives If r 2 F(L i )/Z(L i ), fished; died naturally Features: Included the tagging module Generates SS3.dat file Modified from Chang et al. (2011) CJFAS, 68: 122136 Single area, sex combined Initialization 40 years M only ( ); 62 years M+F (fishing period, ) Fishery One combined fleet, fixed q, logistic selectivity (size-based) Life history parameters: maturity, length-weight (size-based) Beverton-Holt SR relationship Growth uncertainty Individual growth variability Time-varying growth variability 8 Individual-based model - II Time-varying growth scenarios in IBM 30% decrease Linf 30% increase K Linf We modeled the time-varying K and Linf patterns for 1.Cohort-specific growth variability 2.Year-specific growth variability Period 1 Period 2 c y time age Size One fishery Starts in 1951 (modeled as non-seasonal) IBMs Data for all years ( ) Abundance index Length composition in fishery Age composition in fishery Fixed, natural mortality, and steepness of the stock- recruitment relationship (h = 0.9) Estimated parameters: Length at a 1 (L 1 ), Length at a 2 (L 2 ), K, CV_L 1, CV_L 2, R 0, Selectivity (SEL 50, SEL 95 ) Stock Synthesis estimation model 11 1.Constant growth 2.Yearly multiplicative deviation Par y =par*e y Yearly random walk deviation Par y =Par y-1 + y Cohort growth deviation L a+1,c =L a,c +L*e v c Time blocks Par = blockpar Every 10 years block ; ; ; ; , Methot and Wetzel (2013) Fish Res Stock Synthesis estimation model - II 6. Empirical weight-at-age Taylor (Friday) Simulation testing scenarios Simulation scenarioEstimation model Constant growth (base-level) SS3_const Time-varying K (Cohort)SS3_const SS3_mult_dev SS3_ranwk SS3_CGdev SS3_Blocks Time-varying K (Year)5 SS3 models Time-varying Linf (Cohort)5 SS3 models Time-varying Linf (Year)5 SS3 models 12 We compared: SSB y Fy, SSBtyr, Ftyr, Weight-at-age (not shown in this presentation) Result 13 Constant growth scenario Cohort-specific time-varying Linf scenario Cohort-specific time-varying K scenario Comparison of time-series of SSB by different estimation models Time-varying K vs Time-varying Linf Time-varying KTime-varying Linf Mean size EFL (cm) Year age (Cohort-specific) (Kg) Model performance Average absolute relative error 16 k is the number of years; The E t is the estimated value of SSB in year t; T t is the true SSB in year t; Larger value -> higher estimation error SS3 estimation models: Estimation error of spawning stock biomass Base-level (self-test error) 100% Time-varying K Time-varying Linf SSB Constant growth Base-level Time-varying K (cohort-specific) Time-varying Linf (cohort-specific) SS3 constant growth Simulation scenario SS3 constant growth SS3 multiplicative dev in K SS3 multiplicative dev in Linf Pearson residuals bubble plot of size composition Cohort-specific vs Year-specific time-varying growth Mean size Age Year (Cohort-specific) (Year-specific) % Base-level SS3 estimation models: SSB Which time-varying method is better? 1.Mis-specified time-varying growth can affect model output For example, estimation error in SSB Reason: time-varying growth -> mean size-at-age -> exploitable population (via selectivity) -> catch (young-big or old-small) -> population abundance, SSB (via L-Maturity & L-W functions) -> Recruitment -> -> 2.Higher time-varying growth variation -> more complication in dynamics and data -> poor fits by stock assessment model -> higher estimation error 3.Time-varying Linf has a larger impact than time-varying K Big change in size scale across all ages 4.Year-specific time-varying growth has a larger impact than cohort- specific time-varying growth Year-specific has higher variations in mean size-at-age Findings of the simulation study 1.Can we include time-varying growth in stock assessment? In our case, Yes! SSB RE 18% -> less 5% (time-varying K) SSB RE 150% -> 20% (time-varying Linf) 2.Default method for dealing with time-varying growth? Yearly multiplicative deviation and cohort growth deviation methods perform better Reason: greater flexibility to model the variation 3.Which one is worse? Constant growth; time blocks; random walk method (low flexibility) 4.Do the models with time-varying growth work well when true growth is constant? Yes! Reason: greater flexibility; more parameters Include it as a candidate run. Check model if it makes a difference. 22 Findings of the simulation study -II 23 Acknowledgments CAPAM workshop conveners ISC Billfish Working Group Jon Brodziak Rick Methot Yong Chen Hui-Hua Lee Questions?? Examples of time-varying growth II Pelagic billfish ParameterPosterior mean KK L,jL,j 311; 241; 221; 309 KjKj 0.09; 0.32; 0.20; 0.11 Pacific blue marlin Chang et al. (2013) ISC/13/BILLWG-1/02 Estimation error of time-series of weight-at-age Time-varying K Time-varying Linf SS3 estimation models: Base-level Weight Age Year 100% 26 Mult_dev RanwkCGDev Blocks time-series of mean size-at-age 27 Parameter (units)IBMEstimated in SS3 Natural mortality (yr -1 )0.25No Reference age1 (yr)0No Reference age2 (yr)15No Length at a 1 (cm)62.69Yes Length at a 2 (cm)216.72Yes Growth rate (yr -1 )0.258Yes IBM growth error CV; SS3 CV L ; 0.01Yes SS3 CV L 2 0.1Yes Length-weight scaling1.35E-06No Allometric factor3.4297No Maturity slope No Length-at-50% maturity (cm)143.68No Log mean virgin recruitment Yes Steepness0.9No SigmaR0No Logistic size-based selectivity, SEL 50 (cm)140Yes Logistic size-based selectivity, SEL 95 (cm)160Yes Catchability0.1No CPUE observation error s.d.0.1No Effective N in size comp.100No Effective N in age comp.100No Ageing error s.d.0.001No Time-varying par. CV0.25 No Mortality Growth Other life history SR relationship Selectivity Observation error 28 Match up IBM with SS3 We compared: 1.Total mortality by age 2.Catch number-at-age 3.Population abundace-at-age 4.SSB 5.Growth curve 6.etc. Total mortality of IBM and SS3 1.How does fishs growth change through time? 2.What is the major impact of time-varying growth on population dynamics? 3.Can we include time-varying growth in stock assessment? How do we include time-varying growth in stock assessment? 4.What kind of data do we need for estimating time-varying growth? CPUE, Size composition, conditional age composition, tagging data 5.How many the above data do we need for estimating time-varying growth? 6.What is the relationship between time-varying growth and time- varying selectivity? 7.How does the time-varying growth affect the recruitments estimation? 8.What is the combined impact of both recruitment deviation and time- varying growth on population dynamics? 30 Discussion points Stock assessment and model selection Issue: The estimated quantities important for management can be sensitive to the model structure. Consequences: Overconfident inferences and decisions that may be more risky than expected. Assessment data Best model Stock status Alternative hypotheses/ models NRC, Spatial (Punt et al., 2000) Sex-specific (Wang et al., 2005) Time-varying mortality (Deroba & Schueller, 2013), selectivity (Martell & Stewart, 2014), growth (Whitten et al., 2013), etc.