1 status of food security, trade and the economic health of fisheries procida 3-4 october 2011 audun...
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1
Status of Food Security, Trade
and the Economic Health of Fisheries
• Procida
• 3-4 October 2011
• Audun Lem
Outline
1. Fish and food security– Consumption– Generation of employment & income – Trade – exports - imports
2. Trade – supply - demand
3. Economic health of fisheries– Resource sustainability & fisheries management– Demand & prices
4. Conclusions
1. Background
(FAO, 2010)
Undernourishment in 2010, by Region (millions)
(FAO, 2010)
Food Security
• “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life” (FAO, 2010)
• Undernutrition– mortality, morbidity, stunting and wasting
• Micronutrient deficiencies– immune functions, cognitive development, growth,
reproductive performance and work productivity
Fish & Food Security• Fish can increase food security through:
– Domestic consumption– Generation of employment and income– Trade
• Food based approaches focus on increasing direct consumption to address the immediate determinant of undernutrition
• Interventions in fishing and aquaculture have focused on indirect impact of improving household food security (employment/processing/trade).
What the Fisheries Sector is Facing Today
• Marine Fisheries: – Large proportion either fully utilized or over-exploited– Limited potential for increased production
• In-Land Fisheries:– Some stocks collapsed or collapsing– Bu many remain lightly exploited– Probable under-reporting of catches
• Aquaculture:– Fastest-growing animal food-producing sector in the world– Global per-capita aquaculture production increased from
0.9kg in 1970 to 8.6 kg in 2011
FAO databases on 392 stocks
• 6% underexploited,
• 20% moderately exploited,
• 50% fully exploited,
• 15% overfished,
• 6% depleted,
• and 2% are recovering.
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Fish Consumption (kg/capita/year)
FAO, 2009
Employment and Income
• Capture Fisheries– a main source of household income– prevents serious food insecurity– increases fish consumption (frequent poor nutritional
status of fishing communities)– important for seasonal part-time income and
diversifying livelihoods
• Aquaculture– raises household income
Food Security and Fish Trade
• The long term sustainability of trade depends on the sustainability of the fishery resource
• Exports generate foreign exchange, employment and income, but can decrease the availability for domestic consumption
• Society is likely to gain overall from exports, but there may be distributional consequences
Fish Trade
• Countries that are large exporters of fish also import fish
• China, the largest producer and exporter, now also a major importer: nr. 6 (after US, Japan, Spain, France, Italy)
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2. TRADE – SUPPLY - DEMAND
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World fish production
Million t 2009 2010e 2011e 2011/
2010
Capture 89 87 89 1.8%
Farmed 56 58 60 4.0%
Total 145 145 149 2.7%
15FAO
World Fish Production
catch
aquaculture
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Per caput food supply
Kg/year 2009 2010 2011 2011/10
Food fish
17.2 17.3 17.4 0.3%
Capture 9.1 8.9 8.8 -2.1%
Farmed 8.2 8.4 8.6 2.8%
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World aquaculture production 1950-2011: strong growth but slowing
down
aquaculture
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Aquaculture producers
China
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WORLD TRADE
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World Fish Trade: Export Value - in 1000 USD -
developing
developed
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LARGE EXPORT DECLINE 2009: USD 95.6 BILLION
• 2009: A difficult year for prices and margins– - 7.5 % down in value (USD)
• but 2009 volumes were only moderately down– 0.6 % in volume (live weight conversion)
• DEVELOPING COUNTRIES:– 52 % SHARE OF EXPORTS
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2010: new growth, new record
• ESTIMATED EXPORTS: USD 105 billion (+ 10%)
• Volume: 55.2 million tons (+0.5%)
• It is prices and margins that increase more than volume
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2011 forecast ?
• Exports USD 108.4 billion (+3.1%)
• Export volume 55.4 million tons (+0.4%) (live weight)
• New forecast because of down turn:
• Exports USD 106-107 billion
• Export volume 55.3 million tons
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Main fish exporters 2010 (value)
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Main fish importers (2009) sharp decline
• Japan USD 13.3 bill. - 10.7 %
• US USD 13.9 bill. - 7.3 %
• EU USD 40.4 bill. - 9.6 %
• Total big 3 USD 67.6 bill. - 9.3 %
• Total world USD 99.3 bill. - 8.1%
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Main fish importers (2010)new record imports
• Japan USD 14.9 bill. + 12.0 %
• US USD 15.5 bill. + 11.5 %
• EU USD 43.0 bill. + 6.4 %
• Total big 3 USD 73.4 bill. + 8.6 %
• Total world USD 109.7 bill. + 10.5%
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Fish market trends• Japan: long-term decline in fish consumption and imports Meat>fish .
– high consumption but falling: 65 kg/kaput– below 3 million tons in 2007
• USA: long-term growth, is overtaking Japan as # 1 country
– rising population and consumption /kaput 24 kg
• EU: long-term growth: # 1 market (EU 27)– expanding population, stable consumption at 20 kg– rising import dependence
• New markets/emerging economies– Strong growth: Russia, Brazil, India, Asian markets
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Distribution
• 68 % of world imports by three markets– within these markets: supermarkets represent 50-85 %
of retail sales
• concentration of sales whereas industry remains fragmented
• tendency in developing countries: urbanization
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Role of China in production
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Commodity prices
• fish versus other food ?
FAO Food Price Index
Source: FAO
FAO Food Price Index (excl. fish)
Source: FAO
FAO Fish Price Index
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
1995= 100
TOTAL
AQUACULTURE
CAPTURE
Data source: Norwegian Seafood Export Council
Food vs Fish Price Index
0
50
100
150
200
250
Jan-90
Jan-92
Jan-94
Jan-96
Jan-98
Jan-00
Jan-02
Jan-04
Jan-06
Jan-08
Jan-10
Jan-12
Food
Meat
Fish
Salmon
Food/Meat: 2002-2004= 100
Fish/salmon: 2005 = 100
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FUTURE FISH PRICES ?
• DEMAND: slowly rising– because of population growth– small underlying increase in per kaput consumption
• SUPPLY– capture: stable, not increasing in short/medium term– aquaculture: increasing but declining growth– unknowns: climate change, disease, but also technology improvements
• PRICE IMPACT ?– most probably slightly higher prices, esp. for aquaculture because of
limits on feed supply– price cycles in commodity markets– industry profitability through product development, technological
innovation and cost reduction, targeted marketing
3. Economic health of fisheries
• Sustainability:– Environmental: the resource
– Social: the people
– Economic: the companies
• Long term economic sustainability– linked to state of fish stocks and effective fisheries
management
– linked to sustainable trade
– linked to demand situation and prices
–37
FAO databases on 392 stocks
• 6% underexploited,
• 20% moderately exploited,
• 50% fully exploited,
• 15% overfished,
• 6% depleted,
• and 2% are recovering.
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Fisheries management
• National: – Science– Strong national institutions– National legislation
• International– Science– International instruments– FAO: Code of conduct for responsible fisheries
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Example of intl. instrument• Agreement on Port States Measures to Prev
ent, Deter and Eliminate Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing.– foreign fishing vessels must comply if they
want to use ports in other countries– national authorities to take action against
foreign boats involved in illegal fishing in their own ports.
• Adopted by FAO Conference in 2009• 25 ratifications needed for implementation
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CONCLUSIONS
1. Fish a vital role in food security– through direct consumption– through employment in production, processing and trade
• and frequently important as an employer of women
– through trade, exports and imports
2. Fish production is increasing, thanks to aquaculture: 49 % share in 2011 in food fish
– long–term trend in fish trade is positive– big 3 markets import 68 % but declining. Growing emerging markets incl. Russia.
3. Economic health of fisheries– state of fish stocks – role of effective fisheries management and strong institutions– good science, effective national and international instruments
4. Future: opportunities– rising demand because of population and economic growth– rising supply thanks to aquaculture– rising prices because of demand, and higher feed costs
