1 scenario-based planning for the impacts of multimodal transportation policies james h. lambert...
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Scenario-Based Planning for the Impacts of
Multimodal Transportation Policies
James H. LambertMatthew J. Schroeder
October 14, 2008
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Project Steering Committee
Mary Lynn Tischer, Director, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office
Wayne Ferguson, Virginia Transportation Research Council
Katherine Graham, Commonwealth of Virginia Multimodal Office
Mark McCaskill, Roanoke Valley Area Metropolitan Planning Organization
John Miller, Virginia Transportation Research Council Kimberly Pryor Spence, Virginia Department of
Transportation
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Acknowledgments Ralph Davis, Virginia Deputy Secretary of Transportation Michael Garrett, Virginia Department of Transportation Matthew Grimes, Virginia Transportation Research
Council Roger Howe, Virginia Transportation Research Council Ben Mannell, Virginia Department of Transportation Joost Santos, University of Virginia Chad Tucker, Virginia Department of Transportation Commonwealth’s Multimodal Transportation Office VTrans2035 Virginia Department of Transportation Virginia Transportation Research Council
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Project Team
James Lambert, Principal Investigator Matthew Schroeder, Graduate Research Assistant Megan Kersh, Undergraduate Student Asad Saqib, Undergraduate Student Ward Williams, Undergraduate Student
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Prologue
My administration will begin immediately and work urgently to address the transportation dilemma that complicates our lives and threatens our prosperity. Together, let us
find answers through a dialogue that is shaped not simply in terms of dollars and cents, but also by new
solutions and common sense. A lack of coordination and planning has us stuck where we are today.
-Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Inaugural Address, 2006
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Summary of Accomplishments Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation
agencies in long-range planning Developed a scenario-based analysis of the
regional impacts of transportation policies Designed an Excel workbook Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke
region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025
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Presentation Outline
Introduction and motivation Overview of approach Background Methodology Demonstration of the workbook Results and recommendations
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Motivation Scenario-based analysis is essential for the
VTrans 2035 planning horizon Virginia’s transportation system in 2008
• More than 60,000 miles of roadway• 67 public-use airports• 4 state-operated port terminals• Over 40 fixed route transit systems• Extensive freight and passenger rail• Bicycle and pedestrian amenities
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VTrans 2035 “…policy framework for an
integrated multimodal transportation system that improves mobility and adds to the prosperity and the quality of life for Virginia”
Modal agencies• DOAV• VDRPT• VDOT• DMV• VPA
Pierce R. HomerSecretary of Transportation
VTrans2035 Advisory Committee
Modal Agencies
Analysis for scenario-based transportation planning
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Overview of Approach
Study the impacts of multimodal transportation policies by region across Virginia
Understand how future scenarios and related assumptions matter to Virginia’s transportation system
Support coordination among regional and statewide transportation planners
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Regional Planning Organizations
Source: 2035 Virginia State Highway Plan 2008
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Milestones September 2007: Contact with Virginia’s Multimodal Office November 2007: Virginia Transportation Conference, Roanoke,
Virginia December 2007: Roanoke Valley Alleghany MPO student paper
competition February 2008: Meeting with Dr. Tischer and Deputy Secretary
Ralph Davis, Michael Garrett, Kimberly Pryor-Spence, Katherine Graham, VDOT, on economic input output analysis
February 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO March 2008: Meeting with Roanoke Valley MPO May 2008: Briefing with Dr. Tischer and Katherine Graham May 2008: Briefing with VTrans2035 Advisory Committee June-September 2008: Survey of MPOs/PDCs August 2008: Draft of final report submitted to the VTRC September 2008: Second draft final report, 80% executive review
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Project Website
www.virginia.edu/crmes/multimodal2
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Scenario-Based Planning
Use of scenarios to guide forecasts, projects, and policies
Advocated by the Federal Highway Administration
Several existing different approaches for methodology
Source: FHWA, MWCOG, various sources
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Sample of Literature
Cervero, R., & Aschauer, D. (1998). Economic impact analysis of transit investments:Guidebook for practitioners.
Cole, Sam (2001). Dare to Dream: Bringing Futures into Planning. Journal of the
Flyvbjerg, B, Holm M. K., Buhl, S. (2005). How (In)accurate Are Demand Forecasts in Public Works Projects?
Jarke, M., Bui, X.T. and Carroll, J.M. (1998). Scenario management: an interdisciplinary approach.
Wachs, M. (2001). Forecasting versus Envisioning: A New Window on the Future.
Bartholomew, K. (2005). Integrating Land Use Issues Into Transportation Planning: Scenario Planning.
Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. (2005). Regional Analysis of What-If Transportation Scenarios.
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Sample of Literature (cont.) Federal Highway Administration. (2007). FHWA Scenario Planning
Initiatives. Federal Highway Administration. (n.d.). Scenario planning. National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board and the
Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. (2004). What If The Washington Region Grew Differently: The TPB Regional Mobility and Accessibility Scenario study.
Thomas Jefferson Planning District Commission. (n.d.). Jefferson Area Eastern Planning Initiative.
Watts, R. A., Poitras, C., Chamberlin, R. (2008). Citizen Participation and Frame Analysis in the Development of Scenarios for the VTrans Long Range Transportation Business Plan.
Virginia Department of Transportation. (2004). Virginia’s Statewide Multimodal Long-Range Transportation Plan: Phase 3 and Final Report to the General Assembly.
Zergas, C., Sussman, J., Conklin, C. (2004). Scenario Planning for Strategic Regional Transportation Planning.
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Types of Scenarios Spatial Economic Demographic
• Number of households, in/out-migration Other
• Environmental• Availability of energy resources• National emergencies• Natural disasters• Workforce
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Spatial Scenarios Urban core repopulates
• People go to urbanized areas to live and work, net population unchanged• Public transportation increases, clean transportation
Sprawl accelerates• Private automobile become main mode, vehicle miles traveled increases• Land consumption, energy usage increase, resource depletion
Information technology amenities grow• More workers telecommute so sprawl continues• Flexible work hours result in justifying transit service to certain areas
Region undivided• Shift job and household growth from west to east
Transit oriented development• More people live and work closer to transit
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Economic Scenarios Regional economy strengthens
• Many workers move to region, sprawl continues
Global trade intensifies• Population decreases, increased use of automobiles
Energy cost rises• People relocate to more transit-oriented locations• Decreased use of automobile, air quality increases
Infrastructure investment expands• May draw people to area in the long run
Sources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Demographic Scenarios
In-migration increases• Total population increases, decreased use of
auto
Out-migration increases• Population decreases, increased use of auto
More households• Increased household growth to balance
forecast job growthSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Other Scenarios “Green” region emphasized
• Use of public transit, bike, etc.
Crisis of national significance occurs/ homeland security tightened• Sprawl accelerates, shun public transportation• Airlines suffer, intermodal connection not emphasized
Carbon constrained future Energy constrained future
• Global price shocks and shortagesSources: www.dvrpc.org/LongRangePlan/2030/WhatIfFinal.pdf
www.mwcog.org/uploads/committee-documents/v1taWF820050929141940.ppt
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Methodology Components
Transportation Policies
Performance Goals
Future Scenarios
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VTrans Statewide Policies
Twenty-one policies of VTrans and Office of Multimodal Transportation Planning
Sample of policies• P.4 – Fund rail• P.6 – Strengthen planning and modeling• P.24 – Going green (specific to region)• P.23 – Improve bicycle and pedestrian paths (specific
to region)
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MPO Interest in VTrans Policies
Source: VTrans survey 2008
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Future Scenarios
Used nineteen scenarios based on studies throughout the U.S.
Focused on five scenarios for the region in our case study• S.2 – Sprawl accelerates• S.17 – Retirement• S.18 – Natural disaster• S.3 – IT amenities grow• S.19 – Decrease in air quality
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MPO Interest in Future Scenarios
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Source: VTrans survey 2008
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Transportation Goals
Six high level goals with 34 performance criteria High level criteria:
• C.1 – Safety and Security• C.2 – Preservation and Management• C.3 – Efficient Movement of Goods and People• C.4 – Economic Vitality• C.5 – Quality of Life• C.6 – Program Delivery
Source: VTrans 2025
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Excel Workbook - Introduction
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Workbook – Policy Definitions
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Workbook – Policy Ratings
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Workbook – Scenario Definitions
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Workbook – Goals Re-Weighting
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Goals Re-Weighting Example
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Workbook – Policy Comparison
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Workbook – Policy Comparison (cont.)
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Interpretation of Results
Results are useful to group policies by performance
Results are useful to group policies by upside or downside sensitivity to scenarios
Decision making by VTrans and MPOs is informed by choices of scenarios, policies, and performance criteria
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Summary of Accomplishments Reviewed practices of scenario-based planning Assessed the needs of regional transportation
agencies in long-range planning Developed a scenario-based analysis of the
regional impacts of transportation policies Designed an Excel workbook Demonstrated the analysis in the Roanoke
region with the twenty-one multimodal policies of VTrans2025
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Recommendations
Deploy Excel workbook for survey of additional regional organizations
Collate the results in support of VTrans2035, comparing the regional impacts of VTrans policies
Provide key input to upcoming summit of transportation thought and vision leaders in Charlottesville, November 2008
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Recommendations (cont.) Costs/resources of deployment
• Time to interact by telephone, email, and Excel workbook with regional planners
• Time to compile and present comparison comparing regional results
• Maintenance of website with Excel workbook Benefits
• Improved coordination of VTrans2035 and the regional planning organizations
• Policies that are robust to disruptive scenarios and appropriate to Virginia regions
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Next Steps Study VTrans2035 multimodal corridors Find the sensitivity of the corridors to
VTrans “issues” Study the sensitivity of VTrans and other
statewide policies to future scenarios of climate change• Sea-level rise• Frequencies of storms, flood, drought• Intensities of storms, flood, drought• Demographic/socioeconomic climate impacts
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RVAMPO Student Paper Award to UVa/VTRC Student Team