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Reengineering the SIPP: An Assessment of the Use of

Administrative Records

Jim Farber and Sally Obenski

US Census Bureau

CNSTAT Panel

January 26, 2007

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Overview

• Background on the Dynamics of Economic Well-being System

• Administrative records assessment methodology and outcome

• Prototyping methodology and outcome• Next steps• Conclusions

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Dynamics of Economic Well-being Goals

• Cost reduction

• Improved accuracy

• Improved timeliness and accessibility

• Improved relevance

Use of annual data collection

Focused content selection

Lower attrition rates

Integrated administrative data

Improved documentation

Improved processing system

Work closely with disclosure review

board

Ongoing content determination process;

use of “hooks”

Use of ACS

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Scoping AR Feasibility

• Inventory in-house files

• Review SIPP content requirements

• Assess availability and usability of in-house files to meet SIPP requirements

• Begin prototype development

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Assessment Methodology (1)

• Identify administrative records that contain content for basic SIPP topics– Demographics– Labor Force– Health Insurance– Assets– General Income– Program Participation

• Identify and bring together experts on administrative records and on survey content

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Assessment Methodology (2)

• For each basic SIPP topic, identify the content goal

• Align available administrative records content to the survey content goal– Sometimes one-to-one alignment– Sometimes many-to-one or one-to-many

• Assess administrative records quality issues• Recommend administrative records variables

for prototypes

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Assessment Outcome:Demographics

• Sources: - Social Security Numident

- Census 2000

• Scope: National

• Coverage: Social Security Number holders

• Alignment with SIPP content: – Age, Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin, U.S. Citizenship

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Assessment Outcome:Labor Force

• Source: IRS Tax Returns

• Scope: National

• Coverage: Filers

• Alignment with SIPP content: – Total Earnings from job(s) or income (loss) from

business(es)

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Assessment Outcome: Health Insurance

• Sources: Medicare, Medicaid

• Scope: National

• Coverage: Enrollees

• Alignment with SIPP content: – Nearly all SIPP Medicare items– Does not currently cover Medicare part D– Nearly all SIPP Medicaid items– Current lag of about four years hinders use of

Medicaid

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Assessment Outcome: Assets

• Sources: IRS Tax and Information Returns

• Scope: National

• Coverage:- Filers,

- IRS-covered income earners

• Alignment with SIPP content:– Nearly all aggregate SIPP asset items– Does not have detailed ownership of and income

from mortgages

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Assessment Outcome:General Income

• Sources: - Social Security Master Beneficiary Record - Supplemental Security Income Record

- IRS Tax Returns

• Scope: National

• Coverage: Beneficiaries, SSI recipients, filers

• Alignment with SIPP content:– Many SIPP general income items– Aggregated SIPP Amounts of Unemployment

Compensation available from tax data– Other SIPP items available in aggregate from tax data

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Assessment Outcome:Program Participation

• Sources: - State-specific program files (TANF, Food Stamps, etc.)

- HUD–TRACS

• Scope: - States of MD, IL, and TX- National for HUD file

• Coverage: Program participants

• Alignment with SIPP content: – About a third of the SIPP items– No current source files for energy assistance,

school meals, WIC, and some other programs

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Administrative Records SuccessesMedicare Enrollment Database (MEDB) Medicare health insurance coverage

Master Beneficiary Record (MBR)

Work disability and source of general income (e.g., Social Security)

IRS Tax and Information Returns

Asset ownership, income/earnings from a job, profit from a business, unemployment compensation, receipt of alimony

SSA Numident Demographic characteristics such as age, race, Hispanic origin, citizenship

Supplemental Security Receipt of Federal/state SSI

HUD - TRACS Public housing and receipt of rent subsidies

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Administrative Records Quality Issues

• Availability– Many programs run by states, e.g. Food Stamps,

TANF– New relationships, regulations, or agreements

needed to use some files

• Time Lag– e.g., national Medicaid file lags by about 4 years

• Coarseness– Many survey requirements are highly nuanced,

requiring detail not in administrative records

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Spiral Prototyping Methodology• Simulate integrated database of survey and

administrative records• Begin simply: one year of CPS linked to one

administrative records file• Increase complexity in later prototypes

– Link two years of CPS or SIPP to administrative records

– Add administrative records variables– Ultimately simulate a near-final database with

maximal administrative records input

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Analyzing the Prototypes

• Evaluate prototypes in three ways: coverage, accuracy, and disclosure– Disclosure to be addressed more fully in the future

• Coverage: how many survey respondents can be linked to administrative records?

• Accuracy: how closely does administrative records content match survey content?

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Coverage of the PrototypesAbout 94% of CPS records linked to

administrative records

50.2%

36.4%

6.9%

0.0%

20.0%

40.0%

60.0%

80.0%

100.0%

2001 CPSSSN Verification Address Search Name Search

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Accuracy of the Prototypes (1)Absolute Difference in AGE: CPS versus Numident

Age Difference Percent Cumulative

0 89.8 89.8

1 6.7 96.5

2 1.4 97.9

3 1.2 99.1

4 0.4 99.5

5 – 9 0.4 99.9

10+ 0.2 100.1

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Accuracy of the Prototypes (2)Longitudinal consistency of Medicare

enrollment status• CPS responses versus Medicare enrollment file

• Enrollment status compared for 2004 and 2005

• Consistent records agree in both years

CPS enrollment response is consistent with Medicare file in 2004 and 2005

96.5%

CPS enrollment status is not consistent with Medicare file in 2004 and/or 2005

3.5%

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FY 07 DEWS Research

• Complete national prototypes by including benefit data and modeled income data

• Develop state prototypes by linking as much state program data as possible

• Build decision process prototype for determining how AR could be integrated into DEWS design

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State Prototype Design (1)

• Maryland and Illinois state data and selected federal files

• Some program data are in-house, e.g.:

• Some data need to be acquired, e.g.:• WIC, school meals, job training

•Food stamps •State Medicaid

•Temporary Cash Assistance •Unemployment Insurance

•Public housing assistance •Supplemental Security

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State Prototype Design (2)

• Link multiple years of SIPP with state administrative records

• Create increasingly larger prototypes as data become available

• Evaluate state prototypes for coverage, accuracy, and disclosure

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Initial Process Prototype

• Identify potential uses of administrative records in all phases of DEWS survey operations, e.g.:– Quality assurance– Editing and imputation

• Identify survey requirements needed for possible use of administrative records

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Conclusions

• Administrative records could help to inexpensively replace some SIPP content

• Administrative records have quality issues like lag and coverage

• Administrative records can not fully replace a field survey

• An integrated approach with survey data and administrative records data is one approach to re-engineer the SIPP

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James Farber Phone: 301-763-1844James.Farber@Census.gov

U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCEU.S. Census BureauWashington, DC 20233

Contact Information