1 rbm workplanning and budgeting-fao managing for results in fao module i. an introduction to...

1RBM Workplanning and Budgeting-

FAO

Managing for results in FAO

Module I.

An Introduction to

Results-Based Management


FAO

Objectives

An opportunity for you to:

• Configure your own draft 2 year unit workplans and budgets which can in January be used as examples of emerging good practice

An opportunity for us to:

• Get your feedback on process, materials and timetable


FAO

Five core

principles

Ownership Harmonisation

Alignment

Mutual Accountability

Managing for

Results

Aid effectiveness principles


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Principles of results-basedmanagement

• Programme and budget formulation revolves around a logically defined results chain

• Results form the basis for resource allocation and mobilization

• Actual achievements are systematically assessed against commitments for results, using performance indicators.

Management for results rather than by results; focus more on looking forwards to what needs to be achieved, how to do it and how to assess it.

Resources

Activities

Results

Perfo

rman

ce m

easu

rem

en

t


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Which RBM? From resource- to results-based management

Resource-based management

Decide then •What to deliver and how

Results-based management

Given the resources available

- $,

- Staff etc.

First define what should be delivered and how

Then decide resources needed

- $,

- Staff etc.


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Elements of RBM

Managing for Results

Strategic Planning

Performance Management

•Formulating Objectives•Defining a Strategy•Identifying Indicators•Setting Targets

•Monitoring Results•Reviewing and Reporting Results•Integrating Evaluation•Using Performance Information


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Typical RBM cycle

MonitoringMonitoring

Planning

Planning

Setting Setting the visionthe vision

Defining the Defining the results map results map and RBM and RBM frameworkframework

Planning for Planning for monitoring & monitoring & evaluationevaluation

Implementing Implementing and using and using monitoringmonitoring

Managing Managing and using and using evaluationevaluation

Evalu

atio

n

Evalu

atio

n

Stakeholder Stakeholder participationparticipation

Adapted from UNDP Handbook on Planning,

Monitoring and Evaluating for Development Results (2009)


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A key emphasis

on external results - improvements in the development conditions of people

Not just a focus on internal results and agency performance but

In other words Managing for Development Results MfDR


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A logical approach to programme management

AA systematic and structured process and way of thinking

in which the process itself is just as

important as the product•Cause and effect relationships

between actions and effects

B

•Responsibilities

•Timeframe

•Necessary conditions

•Results measurement


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So what is a ‘result’?

Results are changes in a state or condition which

derive from a cause-and-effect relationship. The output, outcome and impact of

a development intervention. They may be intended or unintended,

positive and/or negative.

UNDG Approved Harmonised RBM Terminology (2003)


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Outcomes

Outputs

Activities

Inputs

Impact

Financial human and material resources

Actions undertaken to transform inputs into outputs

‘Expect to see’The end products and services; deliverables

from the activities; within team control

‘Want to see’ Immediate effects on clients

Beyond team control but achievable given necessary conditions

‘Hope to see’Long-term development improvements to which

we contribute

Implementatio

n

Results

The results chain Based on causality,

attribution and contribution


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The typical RBM planning process

Stakeholder analysis – identify who has an interest and who needs to be involved

Objectives analysis – identify possible solutions

Problem analysis – identify key problems, causes and opportunities; determine causes and effects

Workplanning – set a workplan and assign responsibilities

Budgeting – determine human and material inputs needed

Developing the plan framework – define result chain, logic, risk and performance management

Options analysis – identify and apply criteria to agree strategy

A

B


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THERE

HERE

7. What do we need to get there?

What detailed activities and resources are needed?

6. How will we know if we’ve got there? How will we monitor and evaluate?

5. What may stop us getting there? And what can we do to get around these obstacles?

4. How will we get there?

3. Where do we want to be?

2. Where are we now? What are the problems? What are the possibilities?

1. Who are ‘we’? Who has an interest? Who should be involved?

Key questions - useful at any level


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FAO’s Planning Framework 2010-2011

Global Goals

Strategic and Functional Objectives

Organizational Results

Unit results (Budgets)

Products/services

(Budgeted)

Planning Framework

Strategic Framework

(10-15 Years)

Medium Term Plan(4-Years)

Workplans

Results chain

Impact Focus Areas ‘Thematic Groupings’

Strategic Planning

Operational Planning

Programme of Work and Budget(2-Year)

Headquarters Division UR

Sub-Regional Office UR

Regional Office UR

Products/services

(Budgeted)

Products/services

(Budgeted)

Country Office UR

Products/services

(Budgeted)

Core Functions ‘Means’

Primary Tools ‘Approaches’


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1. Distribution of staff costs across organizational results

2. Validation of unit results

3. Development of products and services and related activities for each UR and preparation of workplans

4. Adjustment of estimated planned costs for URs

5. Review of financial feasibility of URs

6. Quality assurance

7. Final approval of workplans

Operational Planning 7 steps in the workplanning process


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Partnership?

Who’s driving the bus?

Who decides where it goes? When?

How? Via? Who’s a

passenger? inside? on the roof? hanging on?

walking?

Who built the road? Who are the police?

Who’s paying? Who’s getting a

free-ride?

Who owns the bus? Who paid for the vehicle? Who’s maintaining it?

Who are you?


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CAUSES

EFFECTS

Focal Problem

Analysing the problem

Turning the problem into a positive

statement gives the outcome or impact

Addressing the causes identifies

possible outputs and activities

Addressing the effects identifies possible

indicators


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Types of results defined

OutputThe products and services which result from a development intervention and which are relevant to the achievement of an outcome.

OutcomeThe likely or achieved short-term and medium-term effects of an intervention’s outputs.

ImpactPositive and negative, long-term effects on identifiable population groups produced by a development intervention, directly or indirectly, intended or unintended.

UNDG Approved Harmonised RBM Terminology (2003)


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Types of results explained

Output

Outcome

Impact

The size of the gaps represents your ambition in the prevailing circumstances!

Promises Deliverables Products and

services Largely in the

team’s control The ToRs of the

team Must be

necessary and sufficient.

Why the team is delivering the outputs.

What they want to achieve

Not fully within their control

Because it requires others to the use, uptake, implement the outputs.

The ‘greater why’

To which the team hopes to measurably contribute within the timeframe

Positive impacts are Goals.

Should refer to people, not only, e.g., to ecosystems.


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Examples of results

Output

Outcome

Impact

Inputs supply system operational

Standards applied by trading farmers

Livelihoods of farmers improved

International standards developed and agreed

Farmers adopted improved inputs and technologies

Improved household food security

Chair and Secretariat for coordination

Coordinated development partner support to agriculture sector

Strengthened contribution of agriculture sector to eradication of poverty and hunger


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Results in FAO

OutputsFAO’s products and services derived from the activities of FAO units. Since FAO itself does not generally ‘do’ development, outputs need to be used by others before they can bring about development progress.

OutcomesThe Organizational Results represent FAO’s outcomes in a 4 year timeframe; the first results level beyond FAO’s products and services. ORs normally need contribution from multiple units, HQ and decentralized.

ImpactsFAO’s Strategic Objectives are in effect the intended impacts or goals of the organization in a 10 year time frame. The Global Goals are at a higher level again, in effect ‘Supergoals’.


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Sequence

Plan DOWN

Output

Outcome

Impact

Activities

Check the logic UP


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ActivitiesIf we carry out these

Check the logic using

if… then

Then will we deliver these Outputs?

Start here

Outputs

Outcome

Impact

Key question

Is each level Necessary

and Sufficient for the next

level up?

If we deliver these

Then will we achieve this Outcome?

If we achieve this

Then will we contribute to this Impact?


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Testing Cause and Effect Link with “IF” and “THEN”

Survey of livestock marketing infrastructure

Increased livestock production and marketing by producers from amongst the most vulnerable populations

Improved food security of targeted rural populations affected by the volatile food prices

Strengthened capacity of livestock producers to access markets


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1 Survey of livestock marketing infrastructure

3 Increased livestock production and marketing by producers from amongst the most vulnerable populations

4 Improved food security of targeted rural populations affected by the volatile food prices

2 Strengthened capacity of livestock producers to access markets

Testing Cause and Effect Link with “IF” …… “THEN”


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Use ‘results’ rather than ‘action’ language

Action language expresses from the provider’s perspective at the start: e.g.

To promote child survival, physical and psychological development

Results language describes changes in the development conditions on completion: e.g.

Young children are alive, healthy, well nourished and active learners.


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Unit Results* must be SMART

Specific

Measurable

Achievable

Relevant

Time-bound

• clear in terms of the nature and scope of achievements and changes sought, the target groups and region etc.; detailed but not wordy; disaggregated appropriately

• measurable quantitatively and/or qualitatively; data will be available at the time planned within the biennium

• realistic in the time and with the resources available; targets not just ‘made up’ without baseline or stakeholder ownership

• within and relate to the mandate and current planning framework of FAO; they are substantial, necessary and sufficient

• can be achieved within the biennium.

* Including their Indicators, Baselines and Targets


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Typical Output Categories - products and services

Human Capacity – e.g. to research, develop policy

Systems – e.g. to manage, gather and use data, do M&E, warn early

Knowledge, Information, Policy, Standards – e.g. findings, lessons

Infrastructure – e.g. roads, research facilities

Materials, Documents, Websites – e.g. publications, databases

Awareness, Engagement – e.g. coordination, consensus, participation


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Risks and assumptions

Risk A potential event or occurrence beyond the control of the programme that could adversely affect achievement of the desired results.*

AssumptionA necessary condition for the achievement of results at different levels. UNDG Technical Brief: Risks and Assumptions (2008)

*Yes, but don’t forget other types of

risks e.g. to security of personnel and

resources (fraud)


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Risk and assumptions– some key messages

The aim is NOT to AVOID

risks altogether, but to

manage them and take

appropriate risks wisely

Risk analysis should challenge the plan – the results chain logic

Do risk analysis with key partners - to get a better picture and also buy-in

Regularly track risks and

assumptions

Strong analysis is needed of mission-critical risks


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IMPACT? depends mainly on:

• What is the HAZARD itself? Scale? Seriousness?

• What is the VULNERABILITY to the hazard? of the poor? of the project?

Key questions in risk analysis

PROBABILITY? The likelihood of it happening. Data? Reliability of data?

COSTS? What are the costs of taking the risk? Social? Financial? Political? Who bears them? The already vulnerable?

GAINS? What are the gains from going ahead?

MITIGATION? What can be done to improve any or all the above?


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Risk analysis – an example“I’ve had your results back and I’m concerned about your cholesterol level.”

Think through how you would analyse this


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Risk analysis – an exampleThe Hazard is the high cholesterol level.

I’m male, over 55, with a family history of strokes, so my Vulnerability is medium to high.

Put these two together and the Impact is (no denying it) high

So that’s the Probability. I’d better cut out the cheese, and cream and butter; and eat loads of oats and fish. I

reckon that’s a Cost worth bearing.

“Continue at these levels, and you’ve a 30% chance of a major heart problem by 70.”

“Get these levels down and you can assume halving the probability. ”


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Responses to Risk

Identification

Estimation

Evaluation

Planning

Resourcing

Monitoring

RISK ANALYSIS RISK MANAGEMENT

Transfer

Tolerate

Treat

Terminate


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Risks and assumptions

An assumption is not the mirror image of a risk.

It is not a risk, written positively; e.g. risk - inflation; assumption -

no inflation

Best to think of it as the residual condition left after mitigatory measures have been put in

place;

i.e. do a risk analysis table


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Risks Impact Probability Mitigation Assumptions

Risk analysis table

Highjacking of aircraft

Airport security screening of all passengers.

Screening is sufficiently effective to reduce the risk of highjacking to an acceptable level.

Very High

Medium

Deterioration of security situation disrupts project results

Medium Low Develop and implement security plan. Liaison with UN security office.

Effective preparedness for any deterioration in security; disruption to project results minimised.

Elite capture of benefits within community

Medium MediumEnsure institutional representation of disadvantaged groups. Monitoring of decision-making processes.

Transparency such that benefits visibly accrue to disadvantaged at community and household levels.


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these pre-conditions prevail

Re-check the logic using if…and … then

Start here

we deliver these

we achieve this

Activities

Outputs

Outcome

Impact

we carry out these If Assumptions

AssumptionsTHEN we will deliver these

AND these conditions prevail

If

THEN we will do these

If

AND these conditions prevail

AssumptionsTHEN we will achieve thisIf AND these conditions prevail

AssumptionsTHEN we will contribute to this


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Testing Cause and Effect Link with “IF” …. “AND”…. “THEN”

B. Sustainable resilience to the impact of high food prices of vulnerable, farming households

A. Key immediate constraints to food production addressed

C. Implement work-for-voucher scheme with targeted households

D. Improved quality and quantity of food supply, in the short- and mid-term, of selected vulnerable households

W. Contracted input traders reach remoter areas as per contracts.

X. Selection of targeted households is not a source of conflict

Y. Extra home-produced food is not sold but is used to meet household nutrition needs

Z. The strategy to increase domestic food production is not undermined by major falls in food prices

Results + activity Assumptions


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Terms in performance measurement

a quantitative and/or qualitative variable that allows the verification of changes produced by a development intervention relative to what was planned.

a specific level of performance that an intervention is projected to accomplish in a given time period.

an indicator used during the lifetime of a plan by which progress, usually of output delivery, can be measured.

the situation prior to a development intervention against which progress can be assessed or comparisons made.

Indicator

Target

Milestone

Baseline


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Baseline, targets and achievement


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Planning performance measurement – the process

in brief


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Some key points

Who sets the indicators and targets is fundamental Disaggregate indicators and targets for example by gender,

ethnic group, age, or geographic area - averages can hide disparities

Some indicators in every framework should relate to standard or higher level indicators

A variety of indicator target types is more likely to be effective

The fewer the indicators the better - collect the minimum


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Baselines

• a clear picture of the pre-existing situation needed• e.g. without knowing the baseline, how can one assess

a ‘25% improvement in crop production’ • baseline studies needed before targets can be set and

before Approval can generally be given • in some circumstances, an Inception Phase including

some baseline data collection, may be appropriate


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Indicators, targets and milestones

• Indicators are means; ‘the proportion of population below $1 per day’

• Targets are ends; ‘halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of people whose income is less than $1 a day’

• Milestones are progress checks; ‘reduction by 40% between 1990 and 2010, ……..’


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Types of Indicators

Qualitative and Quantitative Combined – both Qualitative and Quantitative Binary – yes/no Direct and Indirect (Proxy) Product and Process


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Essential Qualities of Indicators

It measures what it is intended to measure without bias.

It measures accurately the real change, consistently over time and place.

It measures small change or progress and reflects differences in key aspects such as gender.

It is easy to interpret and understood by all.

Data is available when needed at reasonable cost.

It is useful for decision-making, planning and learning.

Validity

Reliability

Sensitivity

Simple

Practical

Useful


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• What evidence do we need?

• How do we get it?

Available from existing sources?

Is special data gathering required?

• Who will pay for data collection?

• How much data gathering is worthwhile?

• Who will collect the evidence? How often and when?

• Where will it be located?

Data Sources


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Examples of Data Sources

• records e.g. of secretariat; minutes, attendance lists, resolutions, budgets, accounts, etc.

• stakeholder feedback, results of focus groups

• documents, film, audio

• surveys and commissioned research reports

• annual reviews; harmonised partner reviews

• external evaluation reports

• local, national and global statistics and data


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Performance measurement matrix

Unit Result

Indicator Data Description

Data sources

Collection Methods

Frequency Responsible unit / person