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OpenDays 7 October 2008

Dr. Peder JensenProject Manager, Transport and Environment

OpenDays 7 October 2008

Dr. Peder JensenProject Manager, Transport and Environment

Biofuels – a part of the Biofuels – a part of the solution ? solution ?

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EU overall emission trajectories EU overall emission trajectories vs. transport emissionsvs. transport emissions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Ind

ex (1

990=

100)

-60 %

Total GHG emissions (EU-27)

-80 %

Annual growth rate: +1.4 % / year(avg. 2000-2005)

Transport emissions

Source: European Environment Agency

’23 January proposal’

’Bali roadmap range’

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Energy package ’target’

Bali roadmap ’target range’

Fuel quality incl. biofuels

130 g/km

Emission reduction effect of:

Gap depending on ’target’ applied

Transport sector ’targets’Transport sector ’targets’

2020 transport emissions

Business-as-usual

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Vehicle efficiencyVehicle efficiency

• 130 g CO2 per km by 2012 ?• 1995 – 2005: 2.5 g CO2 /km

/year reduction• 2005 – 2007: No reduction

(preliminary numbers)• 2007 – 2012: 6.0 g CO2 /km

/year reduction

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Fuel quality directive (98/70/EC)Fuel quality directive (98/70/EC)

• 10% life-cycle improvement from fuel production before 2020

• Refinery improvements yield max 1-2%• Reduced flaring may be significant • 10% biofuels target by 2020 yields from

4.5% to 9.0% depending on pathway

• High oil prices may make more CO2 intensive pathways commercially viable

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Energy package ’target’

Bali roadmap ’target range’

Fuel quality incl. biofuels

130 g/km

Emission reduction effect of:

Gap depending on ’target’ applied

Transport sector ’targets’Transport sector ’targets’

2020 transport emissions

Business-as-usual

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Global rush for biofuels Global rush for biofuels - and other renewables- and other renewables

Source: EEA, 2008

Global biofue ls targe ts

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Bio

fuel

s sh

are

(en

erg

y) EU-27 Ethanol

EU-27 Biodiesel

Global Ethanol

Global Biodiesel

Achieved

Targets

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Key pointsKey points

• Biofuels is firmly on the agenda

• ... but CHP generally giver higher CO2 benefit

• Options for job creation

• ... but not dependent of which energy use is made

• Biofuels can increase security of energy supply

• ... but may cause increased pressure on biodiversity