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January 8, 2010

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IntroductionSustainable Development for Engineers

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Sustainable Development Easter Island

http://aphs.worldnomads.com/stowa way/626/1_EasterIsland2.jpg

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Polynesian Society:

ClansRivalryReligious centers ‘ahu’

http://www.latin-american-architecture.info/EASTER

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Complex Society

Deforestation

Collapse

http://www.latin-american-architecture.info/EASTER

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Parallel?

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Parallel?

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Space Debris

Parallel?

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Sustainable Development Cultural Collapse

Soil salinitypumping, irrigation

Agricultural erosion, Dust Bowl

Monocultures: epidemics

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Sustainable Development Problems Stimulate Creativity

Industrial revolution by shortage of wood

Steam engine

War economies, 1970s oil crises energy efficiency

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/ 5c/Watt_steam_pumping_engine.JPG

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Sustainable Development

Sustainable Development is not just ‘environment’

• Closing loops in stead of emission prevention• Equity integrated

Sometimes contradictory:Organic waste water treatment: Sustainable?etc..

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What is an environmental problem?

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Sustainable Development What is an Environmental Problem?

Is climate change anenvironmental problem?

Not if it is a natural phenomenon

Correlation between solar activity and the

Earths’ average temperature

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Sustainable Development What is an Environmental Problem?

Temperature predictions based on the activity of the sun: proof for anthropogenic climate change after 1980

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The world is our common heritage

Not just environmental efficiency but also equity

http://www.taz.de/blogs/wp-inst/wp- content/blogs.dir/44/files/2007/02/043 %20overcrowded%20train%20India.jpg

Environmentally efficient transport. Sustainable?

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Sustainable Development Sustainable Development is Related to Interests

“As you know, I oppose the Kyoto Protocol because it exempts 80 percent of the world, including major population centers such as China and India, from compliance, and would cause serious harm to the U.S. economy. The Senate's vote, 95-0, shows that there is a clear consensus that the Kyoto Protocol is an unfair and ineffective means of addressing global climate change concerns.”

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Sustainable Development The Global Change

Halving our usage of environment/resources

Income in poor ‘South’ at least 50 % of ‘North’ in 2050

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Sustainable Development I = P * A * T

I Environmental Impact

P Population

A Affluence Consumption of services and products per capita

T Technology Environmental burden per product or service unit

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Sustainable Development 80-20 Rule of thumb

20 % of world population consumes 80 % of natural resources (fossil fuels, ores etc.)

Ergo: resource consumption Rich world is 16 times more than in Poor World

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Sustainable Development Economic Growth

2002 2003 2004

USA 2,4 2,5 3,5

JAPAN 0,2 2 1,25

EU 1,1 0,75 2

INDUSTRIAL 1,6 1,75 2,5

Overig 4,5 4,5 5,25

Wereld 3 3 3,75

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Sustainable Development A Future in 50 Years?

North 2 % growth South 6-7 % growth

6-7 % growth for 50 years means: factor 18-302 % growth for 50 years means: factor 2.7

Result:- Equity difference reduced from factor 16 to factor 1.5-2.4- Growth resource consumption: Factor 5.8-8.2

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Sustainable Development Population Growth

Population growth until 2050:

9,5 billion

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Sustainable Development Population Prognosis

2000 2050WORLD 6.071 8.919More developed regions 1.194 1.220Less developed regions 4.877 7.699Least developed countries 668 1.675Africa 796 1.803Asia 3.680 5.222Europe 728 632Latin America + Carib. 520 768Northern America 316 448Oceania 31 46Data: UN Population Division, World Population in 2300 (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/longrange2.htm)

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Sustainable Development From Vision to Action: The Challenge

2000 2050

Global Population 1 *

1,5 *

Affluence/person 1 *

6 – 9 *

Pollution/affluence 1 =

1/9 – 1/27 =

Pollution 1 1 – 1/2

Improvement factor “20”

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20502000 TIME

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Improvement of products

and processes

Optimal use

Renewalby need

and function